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It was a disappointing day for Fine Gael. Niall Carson/PA

A Fine Gael flop, a mini Green wave and nine other things we learned from the by-election results

The day also brought a surprise victory for Sinn Féin and success for Fianna Fáil.

AFTER A LONG DAY of counting, we have four new TDs in the Dáil. In Dublin Mid-West, Sinn Féin’s Mark Ward pulled off a surprise victory, while in Fingal Joe O’Brien won the Green Party’s first-ever by-election. 

In Cork North-Central and Wexford, Fianna Fáil’s Padraig O’Sullivan and Malcolm Byrne both took seats. 

But with a general election on the horizon, all parties will be looking at trends in yesterday’s results to see what any nationwide poll could hold in store for them. 

So what do these by-elections results actually tell us? 

Disappointment for Fine Gael

Fine Gael went into the by-election campaign with low expectations, hoping to get one seat out of four.

Things didn’t go to plan.

Verona Murphy, their Wexford candidate quickly landed herself in hot water as a result of a series of controversial comments about asylum seekers, creating pressure on the leadership to withdraw its support for her campaign. 

In Dublin Mid-West Emer Higgins – on the face of it an uncontroversial, polished young professional – was forced to backtrack on previous comments about a Traveller housing scheme. 

The results were worse than expected for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. Losing Frances Fitzgerald’s former seat is a blow for the party, while falling into third place in Cork North-Central and Wexford were both disappointing showings.

And while questions over candidate selection will inevitably focus on Murphy, the party may also consider whether Colm Burke is the right person to contest the general election in Cork North-Central.

For a sitting senator (who, by the way, contested his first by-election in the constituency in 1994) to be beaten into third would certainly suggest a re-think might be needed ahead of the general election, where Burke is among the candidates on the party’s ticket. 

A similar point could be made about former minister James Reilly in Fingal – although the former FG deputy leader insisted after failing to secure a seat that he was not “past it” and intended to run in the general election. 

Varadkar did try and put a brave face on the day. In count centres and in a post on Twitter, he insisted that if the results were repeated in a general election all four candidates would have been elected. 

Nonetheless, while by-elections are always difficult for governments, yesterday will be seen as a missed opportunity for Fine Gael. 

Joy (and relief) for Fianna Fáil

It was a good showing for Fianna Fáil, with Micheál Martin stressing the value of winning by-elections when he talked to the media yesterday. 

It’s still hard to say whether this means the party is set to make major gains in a 2020 general election. Cork North Central is about as safe a Fianna Fáil seat as it gets. Situated in the heart of Jack Lynch territory, it would have a major embarrassment to have lost it. 

Similarly, while success in Wexford for Malcolm Byrne – taking the seat vacated by Mick Wallace in May – will be a boost for the party, the Gorey councillor is coming off the back of a successful European election run and will have benefitted from the resulting name recognition. 

The turnout – although higher in Wexford and Cork than in the Dublin constituencies – makes it very difficult for the party to predict how it might fare in a general election. 

Green wave isn’t over

The Green surge in the local and European elections in May hasn’t dissipated.

Joe O’Brien’s victory in Dublin Fingal – a large constituency with plenty of leafy, middle-class enclaves – will inspire hopes that his success can be replicated in other parts of Dublin and other urban areas in a general election.

Yesterday’s result will also do little to dampen speculation that the Green Party could end up becoming a major player in any coalition talks after the next election. 

Lessons learnt for Sinn Féin

Mary Lou McDonald will be relieved that the party has good news to celebrate after its poor showing in May. It wasn’t just the surprise win in Dublin Mid-West, but placing second in Cork North-Central was also a positive result when Sinn Fein’s focus might reasonably have been on elections in the North.

It’s no guarantee of a real electoral recovery, but it’s certainly a much-needed morale boost for the party.

Perhaps most importantly of all, as McDonald stressed yesterday, it shows that the party is trying to learn lessons after that dismal local and European election showing. 

MALCOM BYRNE ELECTED 758A8463 Malcolm Byrne celebrating his victory for Fianna Fáil in Wexford. Eamonn Farrell / RollingNews.ie Eamonn Farrell / RollingNews.ie / RollingNews.ie

New Labour

Brendan Howlin will be another party leader relieved about the result. The fact that two candidates vaulted over government candidates in Dublin Fingal and Wexford might seem little to brag about for an opposition party, but Duncan Smith and George Lawlor both produced more-than-respectable results. 

Notably, in Dublin Fingal, the party’s share of first preferences was well up on the number received in the same constituency back in 2016 -  a sign that some kind of recovery might be on the horizon after months of lacklustre polling.

Social Democrats 

The party wasn’t in contention for a single seat, even in Dublin. After gaining media attention for its no-confidence motion in housing minister Eoghan Murphy (due next week), the Social Democrats might have hoped to reap the rewards. 

It seems that party members hoping for some kind of electoral breakthrough will have to wait a little longer. 

By-the-by election 

By-elections matter, but it’s dangerous to read too much into them.

Typically seen as less pressing by voters anyway, these by-elections were also marked by a dramatically low turnout - meaning that we can’t draw too many reliable trends from yesterday. 

Turnout

We’re going to hear a lot about turnout – why it reached a record low and what it all means. Over the last 24 hours, people have blamed apathy towards politics and the cold and even the fact that the vote fell on the same day as the Late Late Toy Show. 

It could be a combination of all three, added to the fact that by-elections often attract little interest anyway.

The low turnout certainly makes it harder to predict what might happen in a general election, set to take place in springtime. 

This changes nothing

The impact on Dáil arithmetic is minimal. Fianna Fáil doesn’t look set to pull the plug on the government, and Fine Gael are on course to survive the vote of no confidence in Murphy next week.

Put simply, no one wants a late December election and this by-election shouldn’t bring us back to the polls anytime soon.

Gender balance 

Not a single woman won a seat. Instead, both Clare Daly in Dublin Fingal and Frances Fitzgerald in Dublin Mid-West will be replaced by two men. Gender balance in the Dáil just got a little bit worse. 

Kicking Bishopstown up the…

Bishopstown in Cork North Central got a bit of a bashing on social media yesterday after election staff opened a ballot box from the area without a single vote in it. 

While it’s not exactly a good sign, as various election experts attested, Bishopstown is not particularly north nor indeed central. 

The area is actually in the south part of the city, so being designated Cork North Central is perhaps a sign of bad boundary drawing – which may have had an impact on the apparent lack of interest in the by-election. 

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    Mute Dave Barrett
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:42 PM

    Just ban celebrities.

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    Mute Martin Galvin
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 8:02 PM

    @Dave Barrett: If people are calling for a ban on the overpaid court jesters from promoting junk food, they need a good hard look at themselves ….. The fact that they think that their children, or themselves, are influenced by this, says more about their fragile-mindedness than anything else …. By the way, it’s not your ‘glands’, you’re just eating too much crap, and if your kids are constantly asking you for junk food, just say ‘no’ …. They’ll thank you for it in later life…. Own your lack of assertiveness….

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    Mute Anna Carr
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 8:48 PM

    @Dave Barrett: lol

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    Mute Dian
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:40 PM

    Majority? No one asked me …

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    Mute HonestGrump
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:53 PM

    @Dian: Me neither.

    Did any Journal reader get asked?

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    Mute Nollaig Kelly
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 5:38 PM

    @Dian: not me

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    Mute HonestGrump
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 7:18 PM

    @HonestGrump:

    Four hours have passed and not a single person has said they were asked the question.

    It’s clear this is just another bullish!te article invented by the useless reporters of this rag.

    13
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    Mute Mjhint
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:43 PM

    Bán them from expressing their political opinions as well.

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    Mute Edmund Spencer
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:58 PM

    @Mjhint: Generally I’m in favour of less regulation on most things but I’d absolutely stand behind this being signed into law.

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    Mute Contrary Mary
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:48 PM

    I’m more concerned with celebrity changing impressionable young minds’ attitudes on illegal drug use, sexuality and body image issue, thanks for asking.

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    Mute The Grand Nagus
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:56 PM

    That’s a mighty fine burger.

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    Mute Harriet Shields
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:20 PM

    I’d prefer to ban them from promoting diets and wellness merchandise that has not scientific backing what so ever.

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    Mute Cynical
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:58 PM

    But we still advertise alcohol during sporting events, surely a burger and fries is much healthier than that?

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    Mute Robert O Farrell
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:22 PM

    First off the dreadful Snoop Dog Just Eat ads need banning. We’ve all suffered enough this past year or so.

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    Mute Brian Kelly
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:39 PM

    Jesus I would love some junk food right now (licking my lips) at that wonderful picture of a double burger & chips! Yummyyyyyyyy!!!!

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    Mute Richard Cronin
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:47 PM

    @Brian Kelly: I have a hankering now some spicy chicken wings & chips

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    Mute Charmaine ☘ Irish
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:03 PM

    @Richard Cronin: me too.. think Eddie rockets burger, chips and wings with franks hot sauce.. definitely getting it now..

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    Mute Mike
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:32 PM

    @Charmaine ☘ Irish: Sold…Takeaway for me tonight

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    Mute Mirabelle Stonegate
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:54 PM

    @Brian Kelly: I had a big plate of chicken fried rice for lunch.. it was yummy! and surprisingly, not that unhealthy!

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    Mute Proudly Italian
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:06 PM

    How ridiculous… just teach kids to eat well, starting from school. But not just ‘banning’ sweets from their lunch box, I mean real eating lessons. Then, they can enjoy some junk food every now and then…

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    Mute Mirabelle Stonegate
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:59 PM

    @Proudly Italian: If people learned to cook properly, some things considered junk can be rather healthy.

    I had chicken fried rice for lunch today. I used a packet of microwave coconut chicken from aldi (no additives, nothing unexpected), and then added some leftover roast chicken, soya sauce, spicebag seasoning and an egg.

    Rice in the pan first. Toss in the seasoning. Then the soya sauce and chicken. Lastly, push everything to one side, scramble the egg, then mix it through for a couple of minutes. I probably used a tablespoon of oil at most. Likely, I used less.

    I regularly eat egg fried rice for lunch. Most of the time, it’s just leftover rice from dinner the night before. Today though, I needed to stay off wheat, and didn’t want wheat free pasta again.. so I grabbed one of those microwave packs of rice in aldi this morning, and threw this together. If I wanted to, I could have thrown in veg of some sort, but I wasn’t in the mood for veg.

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    Mute William Tallon
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 4:07 PM

    @Mirabelle Stonegate: I’d consider changing my diet if I were you as it seems to have given you a bad case of logorrhoea…

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    Mute Eamonn Martin
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 4:14 PM

    @Proudly Italian: Fully agree. Cancel culture has gone mental. Educate people and then let them make their own decisions.
    This goes for way more than just food. Please stop the bad man on tv making me do the bad things and now I’m all sad. Weak people ask for these things.

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    Mute Mirabelle Stonegate
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 5:20 PM

    @William Tallon: why? Because I wasn’t in the mood for veg for one meal? That’s not going to cause significant issues in fairness.

    My favourite thing to make is pizza. I make homemade dough for the base. Then its topped with veg and a little meat. The next day, any leftovers get made into either a fried rice or pasta dish which actually tends to stretch to two meals. I usually put red pepper, spinach, corn and pineapple on my pizzas, as well as plain tomato puree. Yes,I’m a pineapple on pizza person.

    Also, being both wheat and lactose intolerant, its very easy to keep myself.. regular. In fact, I’ve currently having a few days of detoxing from wheat atm, because I’ve somehow had far too much lately.

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    Mute William Tallon
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 6:10 PM

    @Mirabelle Stonegate: Logorrhea on steroids or maybe it’s meant as a parody of pompous food columnists that’s unfortunately fallen flat like a bad soufflé…

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    Mute Seeking Truth
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 5:00 PM

    Are celebrities the real reason we overeat? I do not think so. Loads of other reasons.

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    Mute Craic_a_tower
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 4:05 PM

    How many celebrities promote the spraying of toxic chemicals on your self at an overly inflated price to production? 3% of the population are allergic to perfume after all. They also promote environmentally damaging products and fast disposable fashion.

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    Mute Tomo
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 5:02 PM

    Who cares? Educate people on the risks. We don’t learn about much to do with life in school (taxes, cooking, germ theory, personal hygiene, drug use, etc). Educate people seriously about these things and peoples’ behaviours will change. That’s the only way to tackle this. Some people really don’t understand dietary requirements that their body need to prosper.

    Let adults consume whatever they want. Education is the key to most problems.

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    Mute Tarraing Mo Liathróidí
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 4:55 PM

    I’d prefer celebrities and the Z list knock off celebrities RTE usually find for the late late or their radio shows banned before banning them promoting junk food, cos their personalities and talent is as bad for your health to watch as a big Mac

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    Mute JustMeHere
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 3:07 PM

    Riveting stuff….

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    Mute Peter B
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 6:15 PM

    I really feel like eating a burger and chips after reading that……..I’m off Burger King for a Rebel Whopper

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    Mute Nollaig Kelly
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 5:38 PM

    Get kids off their arse and away from video games and off social media and then let them go outside and run around
    I grew up in the 70s and most things we ate would be seen as unhealthy today. Frying in lard everything seemed to have added sugar if it didn’t we added it, but very rarely was there fat kids as I said above we got outside and ran around and so on
    Today people want to blame everthing but the problem

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    Mute Anna Carr
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 8:56 PM

    @Nollaig Kelly: well said. I saw a program of kids playing on the street in the 70s and the boys bomming up and down on their Rally choppers and girls playing skipping with their dad’s tow rope, elastic, and clapping hands against one another’s hands and just wonderful memories. We were so happy

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    Mute Anna Carr
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 8:51 PM

    Ffs what difference will that make. If ppl want to drink they’ll drink. If they want to smoke they’ll smoke. If they want to be grossly unhealthy and feed their kids junk they’ll do that. Banning celebrities isn’t going to change anything. I’m annoyed that I can’t get points on my clubcard anymore from alcohol, that’s how I used to get great vouchers haha.

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    Mute William Tallon
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 2:53 PM
    6
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    Mute Sense of Doubt
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 7:49 PM

    Pity they couldn’t extent it to a ban on them expressing ill understood trendy political views. It would make the world a little bit more bearable.

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    Mute Eoghan Deegan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 6:27 PM

    Probably more to do with being sick of seeing those people on TV, and less to do with the food!!

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    Mute Brian Flavin
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 6:05 PM

    Who care. Won’t ban

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    Mute thesaltyurchin
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 8:27 AM

    “can’t understand it, ban it”

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