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Boris Johnson in Guiseley, Leeds this morning. PA Images

Boris Johnson avoids interview by going into fridge as final day of campaigning kicks off

A YouGov seat-prediction poll indicated the Tories could win a 28-seat majority tomorrow.

LAST UPDATE | 11 Dec 2019

BORIS JOHNSON STARTED the final day of campaigning with a photo-op that saw him  delivering milk, with the Prime Minister also entered a fridge to avoid a live TV interview.

Both the Conservative leader and Labour’s  Jeremy Corbyn are planning to criss-cross the UK as a fresh poll suggested a hung parliament could still be on the cards.

YouGov’s constituency-by-constituency poll predicts the Conservatives are on course for a 28 seat majority – but the margin of error and unknown impact of tactical voting means a hung parliament is still a possibility.

The pollsters, who have analysed more than 100,000 voter interviews over the past week, predicted the Tories will win 339 seats and Labour 231.

The poll was released last night with Johnson campaigning early this morning in the Conservative-held marginal seat of Pudsey in West Yorkshire, insisting he was “fighting for every vote”. 

“This could not be more critical, it could not be tighter – I just say to everybody the risk is very real that we could tomorrow be going into another hung parliament,” he told reporters.

As Johnson was walking towards one of the milk vans at the photo-op, Good Morning Britain reporter Jonathan Swain attempted to speak to him and asked would he appear on the programme. 

Johnson said he would before walking off towards a storage fridge. 

 Corbyn started his last day of campaigning in Glasgow South West – where Labour is hoping to overturn an SNP majority at the last election of just 60 – with a promise of “real hope” for voters affected by years of austerity.

“They need a UK government that will invest all across the country and give real hope and real security to people,” he said.

“That is the offer that Labour makes and we’ve carried that message all across the country during the last 51 days of this campaign.” 

Last night’s Yougov poll narrowed its predicted Conservative win, more than halving a previous prediction made two weeks ago of a majority of 68 to 28. 

A 28-seat majority would be the best Tory result since Margaret Thatcher’s showing in 1987.

Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “The margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.”

The result will be a worry to Johnson as he prepares for a final blitz across the country as the campaign enters its final full day, with Tory gains off Labour reduced from 44 to 29 since the November 27 findings.

The Tory leader told journalists at an event at JCB’s Cab Manufacturing Centre in Staffordshire yesterday he was “absolutely not” guaranteed victory on Thursday.

“This is a very close fought election and we need every vote,” he said.

Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson drives a Union flag-themed JCB, with the words “Get Brexit Done’ inside the digger bucket, through a fake wall.

Johnson will spend the final day of campaigning in Labour marginals in Yorkshire, the Midlands and Wales, before finishing the day with a rally near London.

While the polls have improved for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, the haul of 231 seats would mean a loss of 31 seats compared to 2017’s outcome – its worst result since the 1980s.

According to YouGov, Labour could be set to make two gains, pulling off a Cabinet minister scalp by taking Chipping Barnet, the constituency currently held by Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is in trouble to the Liberal Democrats in Esher and Walton, while former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green is clinging on by only two points against Labour, the poll result indicates.

Putney could also go red but YouGov continues to predict a tough time for Labour in its heartlands in the North and Midlands.

Veteran MP Dennis Skinner’s Bolsover seat could be taken by the Tories, as could constituencies such as Great Grimsby, a Leave-voting town represented by Labour since the Second World War.

JC. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn joins a phone banking session with party activists at the Scottish Labour Party headquarters in Glasgow.

The SNP would win 41 seats – up by six – and the Liberal Democrats 15 if the prediction bears out.

Plaid Cymru would hold onto its four constituencies and the Green Party its one, while Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party would finish the election empty handed,  polling predicts.

YouGov uses multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to form its predictions – a model that predicted 93% of constituencies correctly in the snap election two years’ ago.

The polling company first models voting preferences based on age, gender, education and previous votes, along with local political circumstances, before applying MRP, a technique which adds local factors and individual characteristics of each of Great Britain’s 632 constituencies to come up with its final result.

The poll results followed a day full of twists and turns on the campaign trail in which:

  • Shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth said he was “stitched-up” by a Tory-supporting friend after his comments calling Labour’s election chances “dire” were leaked.
  • Johnson re-emphasised his promise of toughening prison sentences for violent criminals.
  • The PM faced further criticism from the father of Fishmongers’ Hall victim, Jack Merritt, for using his son’s death to “score some points in the election”.
  • Labour’s Corbyn revealed his first act on entering Downing Street would be to allocate emergency funding for more hostel places to help those sleeping on the streets.

Ashworth was recorded saying the situation facing Labour was “abysmal” because voters “can’t stand Corbyn” and think the party has “blocked Brexit”.

He told LBC radio during an evening phone-in on Tuesday that he had been “taking the piss” with his friend.

The senior opposition figure said he thought the recording had been planned and that he’d been “stitched-up like a kipper”.

His leader Corbyn said the health spokesman had his “full support” but refused to commit to keeping him in his top team after the election was over.

Corbyn is expected to tour the Midlands and Yorkshire on Wednesday in a final attempt to deny the Tories an overall majority.

In a hard-hitting interview with Sky News, Dave Merritt – father to 25-year-old son Jack who died alongside Saskia Jones, 23, in the attack by Usman Khan during a prisoner rehabilitation near London Bridge last month – accused Johnson of having “exploited” the tragedy.

Johnson did not back down in the aftermath of the interview, however, instead telling the Daily Telegraph how he would look to extend jail terms for violent criminals.

He told the right-leaning newspaper the justice system “isn’t delivering” and that it was still “too weak” when handling the worst offenders.

Johnson also revealed the six-weeks of living on the road during the campaign had taken its toll more than just politically.

He told a Sun-reading family in marginal seat Darlington: “I am so fat, I must lose weight”.

The Prime Minister also hinted he could propose to girlfriend Carrie, telling the Parker family he was “very happy” with the 31-year-old.

At TheJournal.ie we’ll be liveblogging all night to bring you all the major developments as they happen. Before dawn on Friday we’ll break down exactly what you need to know about the results and the likely consequences for Brexit. Our overnight team will also be bringing you a special early morning edition of our weekly The Explainer podcast on Friday – and if you’re a subscriber to our Brexit newsletter you can expect a bumper edition into your inbox too before your first coffee of the day has cooled.

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    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Misanthrope
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:15 PM

    Inside job

    477
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    Mute Dáithí Ó Raghallaigh
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:18 PM

    @Misanthrope: definition someone with more knowledge than they should have had..

    180
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    Mute Jimbo Jones
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:19 PM

    Nice that he wore a hi-vis. Good to see that health and safety is being taken seriously.

    366
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    Mute Ciarán McPhillips
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:19 PM

    Who withdraws €55,000 in cash for any legitimate reason nowadays? Seriously??!!

    420
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:22 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips:

    Are you trying to say the business was using the 55000 euro for illegitimate reasons

    50
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    Mute Ciarán McPhillips
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:27 PM

    @Casper: what business? There is no mention of any business in the article above.

    144
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:31 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips:

    Just because it’s not mentioned doesn’t mean it’s not a business

    19
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    Mute Ciarán McPhillips
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:35 PM

    @Casper: well unfortunately I just read the facts outlined in the article. It must be much more interesting reading the news when you don’t allow the facts to get in the way. Maybe extra terrestrials appeared and abducted them and stole the money. I mean using your logic- just because it doesn’t say it…..

    98
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    Mute Dave Murray
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:40 PM

    @Casper: Excellent retort there.

    20
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:41 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips:

    Happy Xmas Ciaran

    7
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    Mute David Conroy
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    Dec 21st 2017, 6:28 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips: Agree, I smell a large hairy rat, who carries that amount of cash for either personal or business use nowadays ?
    It just does not add up or make sense, why did bells not ring in the Bank either ?

    47
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    Mute Father Hody Commody
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    Dec 21st 2017, 6:46 PM

    @Casper: Well, if you happen to have that kind of cash on you boarding an aircraft, god help you.

    16
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    Mute Martin Morris
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    Dec 21st 2017, 7:00 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips: hahahahahahaha just so good. I was saying boooourns.

    4
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    Mute Jack O'neill
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    Dec 21st 2017, 9:17 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips: The robbery happened outside Rialto credit union.

    5
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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:23 PM

    Who other than Cash in Transit Security withdraws €55,000 in cash from a Bank? 20-30 years ago understandable as possibly payroll. But today very very rare. One would have to ask questions as to what it was for.

    156
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:25 PM

    @Mick Jordan:

    Isn’t that the work of the Garda, like I am pretty sure this is all the stuff they will be looking into

    27
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    Mute Niall Sullivan
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:39 PM

    @Mick Jordan: Paying a large sum of cash is not at all unusual. Many business sale deals are two thirds through the books, one third cash. Used to be fairly common. Same for selling commercial property. About 30% under the counter is common.

    The questions would need to be asked of the person receiving it on such a transaction, rather than the person paying it over, assuming the person paying it over got it legitimately. If they took it from a bank, it’s very likely declared and legitimate income. Revenue know about deposits.

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    Mute Aidan Molyneux
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    Dec 21st 2017, 7:19 PM

    @Casper: my question is why did the Garda wait from the 7th to 21st before asking for witnesses

    16
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    Mute Rónán O'Suilleabháin
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    Dec 21st 2017, 8:35 PM

    might be what I’ve heard called the ‘manage’ in cork. A couple of people collect money from colleagues all year, bank it, then give it back at Christmas time.

    6
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    Mute Mark Heehee
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 8:01 AM

    @Aidan Molyneux: that’s my question too. I’ve been in the area many times,but was I there exactly 2 weeks ago at lunch? Why the delay in looking for witnesses?

    1
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    Mute Ciarán McPhillips
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:24 PM

    The more I read this the more peculiar it becomes

    No description other an average height
    No mention of any age profile
    No mantion of any sort of accent
    He approached on foot
    Left on a bicycle
    Having (presumably) followed them by car?

    Tia less fishy in Leo Burdocks

    114
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:26 PM

    @Ciarán McPhillips:

    Keep reading you might come up with more

    22
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    Mute David Dickson
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:25 PM

    Why did the guards wait two weeks to make an appeal for dash camera video? How could anyone remember two weeks ago

    79
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:28 PM

    @David Dickson:

    Well if they look at the dash camera on that day the camera will jog their memories

    20
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    Mute John Barnes
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:58 PM

    @Casper: cams override constantly no storage

    41
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    Mute Father Hody Commody
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    Dec 21st 2017, 6:47 PM

    @David Dickson: Plus dash cams overwrite themselves.

    13
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    Mute Sean Whelan
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    Dec 21st 2017, 7:26 PM

    I don’t think you can walk into a bank and just withdraw large amounts of cash on demand anymore, as far as I know it has to be ordered in advance.
    If I was hedging my bets I’d be looking at an inside job.
    Not very difficult to tip someone off to a large withdrawal, sure you even know the person’s name and address in advance.

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    Mute Liam
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:20 PM

    An oddity amongst oddities

    32
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    Mute Brian O Reilly
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:40 PM

    It was Santa ,

    19
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:20 PM

    It’s the season for a bit of silliness and this inside job is pure silliness

    37
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    Mute Dave Murray
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    Dec 21st 2017, 5:42 PM

    @Casper: taking €55,000 out of a bank in cash is pretty silly too, I would say.

    52
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    Mute Casper
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    Dec 21st 2017, 6:21 PM

    @Dave Murray:

    Not if they have 55 members of family that they wanted to give a Xmas pressie of €1000 each

    22
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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    Dec 21st 2017, 6:19 PM

    An amazing coincidence. Santa was early.

    11
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    Mute Joe Dobias
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    Dec 21st 2017, 8:21 PM

    Sounds like a inside job.

    13
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    Mute Sarah Murphy
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 9:26 AM

    Pedal Cycle; why use one word when you can use two

    5
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    Mute Terry Burns
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 3:43 AM

    It sounds like a bloke year’s ago in a bank in Talbot st.someone lodged it .?

    4
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    Mute brian oconnell
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    Dec 29th 2017, 1:06 PM

    Probably an “inside family” job!

    1
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