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THIS WAS NOT the result the Brexit Party wanted.
In the European elections, the Brexit Party won 29 seats and held 30% of the vote – giving it the largest representation of British MEPs in the European Parliament. For context, the Tories under the helm of Theresa May won four seats.
That was in May. Yet now in December, in a nation where 17 million people voted for Brexit in 2016, the Brexit Party failed to get any seats in the general election.
There are a couple of reasons for this, the first being the first-past-the-post electoral system: 642,303 votes were cast for the Brexit Party. In a proportional representation system, this analysis shows that the Brexit Party would have won 13 seats.
Having said that, it got 5,248,533 votes in the European elections - so this election is a significant downward trend for the young party.
Brexit Party chairman and MEP Richard Tice got 10,603 votes in his constituency of Hartlepool – around a thousand fewer than the Conservative candidate and nearly 5,000 fewer than Labour’s Mike Hill, who won the seat.
So what happened?
What Farage is claiming
“I was determined in this election we would use our influence to stop a second referendum,” Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage claimed in the aftermath of the election result. “That was overwhelmingly our decision to stand down in 317 seats.”
Taking the fight to Labour was important. Because what you’re going to see tonight are dozens of seats that the Conservatives are either going to win tonight or come close, but they wouldn’t have got close to it if we weren’t there taking thousands of votes.
“I killed the Liberal Democrats and I hurt the Labour Party.”
Although Farage has been arguing that he completed his aim in this election by keeping a second Brexit referendum at bay, this is part of his post-electoral spin – he had hoped to win seats in Westminster, telling Sky News’ Sophy Ridge last weekend: “I think we will get some in, I genuinely do.”
At the start of the election campaign, when the Brexit Party was performing well in the polls, its party leader Nigel Farage asked Boris Johnson to form an election pact, so that they wouldn’t run candidates against each other in close constituencies. This would avoid splitting the Brexit vote, and ensuring either one or the other party’s candidate got in.
His condition for their support was high: to abandon his Brexit deal 2.0, and to deliver a no-deal, or ‘clean-break’ Brexit – which was the only form of Brexit the Brexit Party believed was acceptable:
“So I’m going to say this to Boris Johnson: drop the deal. Drop the deal, because it’s not Brexit; drop the deal because, as these weeks go by, and people discover what it is that you’ve signed up to, they will not like it,” Farage said at the time.
If Johnson agreed to this, Farage promised to drop candidates in all but 150 seats (they had over 600 candidates to begin with).
But twice Johnson refused the olive branch, despite it being supported by US President Donald Trump. “I’m afraid I don’t wish to cast any aspersions on the president of the United States but in that respect he’s patently in error, anybody who looks at our deal can see that it’s a great deal,” Johnson said.
Despite this, Farage decided to withdraw half of his party’s candidates anyway, just a month out from the election.
The Party didn’t contest the 317 seats won by the Tories in the last election. Farage claimed that this was a ‘Leave alliance’ – but if it was, it was only coming from one direction.
Where it all went wrong
There are two main reasons for why this happened, and why the wind was taken out of the Brexit Party’s sails by then.
Firstly, the point of the Brexit Party was that it promised to deliver on the 2016 EU referendum result when the Tories were not. Following the appointment of Boris Johnson as Tory leader, the Brexit Party had a tougher time figuring out what they’d do differently: Johnson was an ardent Brexiteer the way Theresa May was not.
By the time Boris Johnson had struck a new and improved Withdrawal Agreement, Farage’s party had an even tougher sell. Here was a literal way out for Brexit voters, which would mean the UK could leave the EU by January.
The British public had not only become jaded by the constant Brexit debate, but had also been warned about the expected perils of a no-deal Brexit.
The Brexit Party campaigned in the election on the basis that the only Brexit that was acceptable was a no-deal Brexit, which has possibly turned out to be too extreme for voters to accept.
This was evident after three Brexit MEPs quit the party a week before the election, one of whom was the sister of prominent Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg.
“We need a strong Leave-supporting government to deliver the Brexit 17.4 million voted for,” Annunziata Rees-Mogg said at the time.
In Scotland, Wales and England. The Brexit Party are permitting votes to go away from the Conservatives, providing us with a Remain coalition that will do anything not to honour the Brexit referendum.
On the eve before polling day, a Brexit Party newsletter sent out to subscribers claimed:
“…Boris can’t be trusted to deliver Brexit on his own… There will be no real Brexit without The Brexit Party in parliament. Leavers, don’t waste your vote!”
In an interview with Sky News’ Sophy Ridge, Nigel Farage said he will rename the Brexit Party to ‘the Reform Party’ if the UK leaves the EU on 31 January, saying that the name had already been registered.
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A one trick party and as history has shown a one trick party can be an extremely dangerous thing.
Why?
Because it has nothing to loose.
All the brexit party want is one thing and they have millionaire backers for that one thing which in turn will help make their backers countless millions, but outside of that they have no policy’s or plans.
It’s much easier to destroy things then to get trains to run on time and employ doctors.
@Barry: and the ordinary people who fell for the lies who have been paying for 9 years will continue to pay and will think it’s every fault but their own.
@Barry: your mistaken Barry. They had one policy and one policy only. Get out of europe. The rest didn’t matter. He’s happy enough now that vote is over.
@Joe Mc: he will only be happy if the UK is not covered by the tax avoidance , tax evasion money laundering laws coming in next year if the UK is watch him say it’s not a proper brexit
@bmul: spot on.
@Barry: lose / than
Seeing the homophobe brexit party candidate Ann Widdecombe defeated by her gay Labour Party rival was a pleasure.
@Peter McGlynn: Every cloud has a silver lining!
@Peter McGlynn: I did not know that. That’s brilliant news.
So does this mean he’s gone from the European parliament at the end of January. Good riddance if he is.
@Jason: with a big pension
Because there leader is a clown bought and paid for by billionaires to do there bidding
@bmul: their
@Bi88les: thanks
I think they have it in boris…I’d say the people of britain are fed up now of brexit that the decromatic vote was to leave and now with hung parliaments in the past they have an overwhelming majority there was no need for Farage and his party boris said to get brexit done and the people have answered
@Mike Murphy: they did more voted for remain parties or those that wanted a second vote
@bmul: Good Lord, I think you might be actually arguing that the Brits don’t want to leave. Like listening to a Japanese soldier who was never told the war was over.
@bmul: that’s undecromtaric to want a second vote…remember the Lisbon treaty
@Mike Murphy: even when the first one was won with questionable tactics that are still being investigated? Hey, we know the vote was potentially illegal but….. democracy!
@Jas: because as you said when the first one was one that’s called democracy..people voted to leave and leave they shall
@bmul: Over 70% of people voted for anyone but fg at our last election yet here we are.
@Jas: they had the referendum, then the european elections where the brexit party won a load of seats. Now we have the tories winning win the “get brexit done” slogan. There is a pattern here. The uk electorate is definitely on for brexit. Let them off.
@Mike Murphy: true , watch how the get brexit done
@bmul: False and you know it . All of those remain parties had leavers
Logically if you analyze the British Election and the fact that the Brexit Party didn’t get one seat, you would have to believe that Britain did not want Brexit or any other Exit. Johnson’s vote was Conservative for stability and not for Brexit. Boris is a Closet Supporter of Remain as is (our pet) Arlene Fluster.
@James Keogh: or just look at the parties who wanted brexit against those that either didn’t or wanted a second vote
@bmul: torys supported the remain vote in the 2016 ref. The flip flop party.
@James Keogh: his slogan for this election was “lets get brexit done” corbyn wouldnt even say if he was in favour of brexit.
Before, Boris had the opposition to blame for Brexit not getting done. Now the decision rests squarely on his shoulders. If indeed he follows through with Brexit (and who reasonably suggest that he is trustworthy enough to keep his promise) the inevitable downturn, which will hit the most vulnerable worst, will be his fault. And, perhaps,the fault of the people who put a liar in as prime minister. He is, after all, the British version of Trump.
Was there really any point in this whole process? The “ Fat Cat’s “ we’re always going to win, they are taking over, even when it would seem impossible they still win! We need to look at the bigger picture!
Nigel is a shifty git full of mischief , most people don’t trust him a bit like Ger Corbyn and if you don’t like the leader your not going to waste a vote. FF will loose the next general election for the same reasons a dodgy Leader that doesn’t connect with the people some party’s just have to learn the hard way.
@Alan Kelly: why not fg? They are the worst of the worst….along with ff…same cat purring the tiger….I’ll never vote for a main party again but the rest of the country will do the opposite in to what I’m doing and probably many others but not enough though
@Mike Murphy: I ment not enough people areike me and not voting a main party
@Alan Kelly: lose
@Mike Murphy: shane on ff and fg.bit like the north – lost on the doorstep are as follows:
Corruption- murphy etc. Dail voting process. Yet no clear actions for these abuses beyond the fact that they are totally legal?
Lack of leadership: homelessness and housing plus swingate- total inability to tract.
Housing- refugees homeless- so sad – treat people with dignity- ww2 ,Curragh as pp requirements so off the wall – but either give people basics or deport.
@Brian Nunan: the country is so bad I dont know how leo is proud to be in the place he is in when it’s in ribbons
UKIP/ Brexit party were purely disrupters of the established political order, & in that the big bucks behind it did succeed.
The objective was always to disrupt the march of EU progressive social & economic policies in dealing with the global financial & business monoliths which drive the total exploitation of world resources, & constructively avoid/evade just contribution in return.
Britain just happened to offer the best vehicle to push their agenda, as it was always a luke warm EU member.
It is quite clear that the scatter of tax havens that are British “protectorates”, & former colonies,from the IoM, Channel isles, Malta, Cyprus, Hong Kong, & the Windies, feature very highly in these globalisation structures, & hence the resistance to EU’s tightening taxation policies.
@William Kelly:
Excellent analysis William, big business asserting control at every level.Its always about the money, holding on to it for dear life and nothing else.
Before, Boris could blame the opposition for stifling Brexit. Now the full weight of that decision rests squarely on his shoulders. The UK, except N. Ireland will suffer in the short-term as a result
A Spoofer
Farage and his colleagues are wealthy from their EU salaries and the hypocrites will hold on to their fat EU pension
Probably all the newly elected British MEPs will now due the EU for unfair dismissal
Usain Bolt
Better the devil you know
Hittler was a casaromatic leader too.
(Spelling purposely wrong)
Up to censorship now.
@Tom Kelly: Hitler
@Tom Kelly: Nigel fits the role of a Camp Kommandant.Maybe he was One in a previous existence.
Moronic question.
Andrew Neil made a very astute point when interviewing the leader of the UK Green Party when he said that all they could ever do is act a spoiler and threaten to hurt Labour and the Lib Dems unless they agreed to adopt their policies. The prospect of them winning large numbers of seats under FPTP was neglibible.
The Brexit Party & UKIP were prepared to threaten the Tories with lost seats if the Tories didn’t agree to the Brexit Referendum and to a harder Brexit than the Tories really wanted. Thus despite only ever winning one seat in their history they have effected massive change.
have your say