Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
THE PRICE OF car insurance continued to be a political football this year, as opposition parties criticised the government for failing to do anything about the rising cost of premiums.
The issue was the subject of ongoing debate throughout 2019, and became a major talking point in July, when a video of Sinn Féin’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty grilling insurance company bosses at an Oireachtas Committee went viral.
More recently, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin were at loggerheads in the Dáil as they made conflicting claims about whether the price of car insurance has risen or fallen in recent years.
The issue arose during a debate on 17 December, when Martin claimed that Varadkar had used incorrect figures to show that the cost of car insurance has been going down since 2016.
Pointing to a recently published Central Bank report, the Fianna Fáil leader suggested that the price of insurance has actually increased since then.
The Taoiseach, however, stood firm and said Martin would retract his remarks when he produced figures to back up his original claim.
But who was right? We’ll take a look at both figures and how they were sourced to see who is correct.
This FactCheck will analyse Varadkar’s assertion that the price of car insurance has fallen since 2016.
The Taoiseach first made the claim during Leaders’ Questions on December 12. Speaking in the Dáil, he said:
We have seen motor insurance fall from its peak in 2016 by maybe 20% or 30%.
He then repeated a version of this during a debate in the Dáil the following week.
Responding to questioning from Martin about his initial assertion, Varadkar used a more refined figure, citing the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
He said: ”What I said was that the cost of motor insurance had gone down by about 25% since it peaked in 2016.”
However, Martin pointed to a new Central Bank report which said motor insurance premiums had risen by 42% over the last decade.
During the same debate, the Taoiseach also cited a third figure amid probing about the source of his figures. He said:
It is a published number. I believe it comes from the CSO… As I said earlier, the cost of motor insurance has gone down by approximately 26% since it peaked in 2016. It went up before that. Now we need to make sure we drive it down further…
So which figure is right, and are the Taoiseach’s claims accurate?
Firstly, it’s important to point out that both Varadkar and Martin’s figures are cited from different sources. Since the Taoiseach made the original claim, we’ll look at his first.
As mentioned above, Varadkar’s figure is based on data from the CSO – specifically, from its Consumer Price Index.
Until December, when the Central Bank published its first Private Motor Insurance Report, this was the only way to compare the cost of car insurance over time.
Unlike the new report, the CSO’s data is published as an index so the figures in it aren’t monetary values from one period to another (even though that’s what they compare).
Instead, the figure for the first month – in this case December 2016 – is given the value 100, while the figure from the month used as a comparison – in this case November 2019 – is given as a percentage of that value.
For example, if something is 50% more expensive in the more recent month than it was in first month, its value will be 150. If it’s 50% cheaper, its value will be 50.
So what do the CSO’s figures say about the price of car insurance since December 2016?
According to the Consumer Price Index for November 2019 (the most recently published report at the time of the Taoiseach’s claim) the cost of car insurance was 77.3% of what it was in December 2016 – a 22.7% decrease.
That falls within the range of the Taoiseach’s initial 20% to 30% claim, although it’s not quite the 25% or 26% cited by him in the Dáil debate on 17 December.
However, while Varadkar’s reference to the CSO figures is accurate, Martin’s assertion that the cost of insurance has risen by 42% over the past decade is also relevant.
As mentioned above, the Fianna Fáil leader’s figure is based on the Central Bank’s Private Motor Insurance Report, which was published on 16 December – after Varadkar’s initial claim was made.
But the CSO figures aren’t as thorough as the Central Bank’s, because the agency only collects data on premiums from a sample of insurance companies for the Consumer Price Index.
In comparison, the Central Bank report is estimated to cover around 90% of premiums which came into force in 2018.
As Varadkar said himself in response to a Parliamentary Question from Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty earlier this year, that sample covers only two-thirds of motor insurance premiums written in the market.
In contrast, all insurers selling private motor insurance in Ireland were required to submit data to the Central Bank for the Private Motor Insurance Report, making it a more thorough analysis of premiums.
According to the report, the average cost of premiums for all different coverage types was €602 in 2016 and €706 last year, meaning the price of car insurance actually rose by 17% over the three-year period outlined by the Taoiseach.
Because Varadkar’s initial claim was made before publication of the report, it would be unfair to say it was completely false. However, it wasn’t an entirely accurate assertion either.
What’s more, after the publication of the Central Bank’s report, he told the Dáil that the cost of insurance had fallen by 25% and 26% since 2016. Neither figure is accurate, even in relation to the CSO’s figures.
And although he appeared to be clarifying his remarks the previous week in relation to the 25% figure, his claim of a 26% drop later in the debate was accompanied by a comment that Ireland had to reduce the cost of car insurance further.
Leo Varadkar’s claim that the cost of motor insurance has fallen by between 20% and 30% since 2016 is debatable.
CSO figures cited by the Taoiseach in the Dáil do suggest that the cost of motor premiums fell by 22.7% over the three-year period.
However, those statistics are only a representative sample of premiums within the industry.
Although they were the only figures available at the time Varadkar made his initial claim, the Taoiseach continued to assert them as fact, despite the different view of the Central Bank.
That report suggested that the price of insurance has actually risen by 17% since 2016.
Varadkar’s subsequent claim that the price of insurance fell by 25% and 26% is also inaccurate, even when CSO figures are used. He even said the government needed to do more to decrease premiums further.
Therefore, our verdict for this is a MOSTLY FALSE.
As per our verdict guide, this means:
There is an element of truth in the claim, but it is missing critical details or context. Or, the best available evidence weighs against the claim.
TheJournal.ie’s FactCheck is a signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles. You can read it here. For information on how FactCheck works, what the verdicts mean, and how you can take part, check out our Reader’s Guide here. You can read about the team of editors and reporters who work on the factchecks here.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
I’d be interested in the number of cars being brought in from outside the State. With the current level of Sterling and the cost of cars here I would suspect many people are importing their cars. Even with the VRT a significant saving can be made.
VRT is a disgrace
Aren’t all cars brought in from outside the State? Of course the SIMI would have you think they are inferior making import a dirty word for cars.
I did. Bought a 2013 Mazda from U.K. For a lot less than one here. Bought an SEL NAV with 50,000 for £9600 (13500) at the time, 18 – €19,000 here. Complete inflated. Goes with our insurance and car tax I suppose.
Motor industry lobby the government over reg plates. They forced the government to bring in the reg plates we have now. The year forces people to have the latest car. Your registration should be given with your licence and should be for life no matter what the car. If two people drive the same car or each others car than you can share a regular number. Also government should get rid of illegal VRT tax as per EU law.
@lez ferguson: VRT is not illegal – http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/vrt/faqs-vrt.html#question2
To be honest I think a practical solution to the problem of uninsured drivers would be to link car tax and insurance to the number plate. No insurance, no number plate, no tax paid, no number plate. In Denmark where I live they use this system and if you dont pay your car tax or insurance the police take your number plate. As its also illegal to have an unregistered vehicle if you’re not a car dealer you have to get rid of the car or pay up or they seize the car as well. Insurance for first time drivers here is about €1000 highest for comprehensive falling to €300 after 5 years.
@lez ferguson:
Please explain how the number on the plate “forces” people to buy a new car?
I have a sore tooth, can I blame the government for that as well?
No one is holding a gun to peoples heads when they are singing purchase agreements.
Regarding. Your link says the oppsite
@Mick Jordan: Is English your first language?
@P.J. Nolan:
“singing purchase agreements”??
I’m a mean barotone myself
Enjoyed reading the convoluted alternative plate systems. But I can’t think of a dafter reason to choose a car. Unless by horoscope ;-)
If at all possible walk cycle or use public transport. Get rid of the car and get rid of insurance, motor tax and maintenance.
And fuel costs.
How would the Government be able to raise revenue then? If the takings from tax on Fuel, insurance, car purchases etc were abolished.
The air we breathe…
@Niallers: That’s fine for single people, not a hope for most others though. Only city dwellers can get away with that.
@Mr Snuffleupagus: Era the dutch manage it, I’ve seen them fit 5 people on a bike!
There’s the electric cars for those of us with families too… Check on the low tax, no fuel, still stuck with the pesky insurance mind. 2 outta 3 is still better though! :)
@Jane Bresnan: The Dutch have a very good existing transport system, and very few hills! When you have t0 cycle up Patrick’s Hill in Cork (almost vertical), or have to cycle a 10 mile round trip to travel no more than 2 miles as the RSA don;t allow cyclists on dual carriageways or through the Jack Lynch tunnel connecting the northside and southside, you begin to realise cycling in Cork is for students.
I’ve saved about 1,500 cycling to and from work every day. It’s about 8k each way, not ideal at the start or when it’s raining but invest in a decent rain jacket, bike and headphones and you’ll never look back. If I leave during rush hour it’s often quicker to get in and home, plus the government aren’t taxing the hole off you.
Headphones, why would you cycle with one of your key senses impaired. Enrages me when i see senseless cyclists do that. Idiot
Try living outside a city where the closest bus service is over 25km away…
@Mr Snuffleupagus: We manage with one car between the two of us. I get the bus to work. We have a car available for when one is needed. I would imagine it is actually harder for a single person because there are some things you can’t do in this country without a car (especially if you live outside Dublin), so you almost always need access to one at least.
@Fargo Boyle: When cycling there’s nothing to Hear! In urban areas all you can hear is traffic. if its raining all you can hear is traffic, tyre roar, air brakes etc. In rural areas all you can here is the wind, cars approaching etc. (yes you can still hear ambient noise while wearing earbuds)
Listening to music while cycling is no different to watching a movie with a musical soundtrack..it adds to the enjoyment.
“When cycling in Ireland and it’s raining, invest in good head phones…” – brought to you by the Road Safety Authority
Fargo. An enraged individual is more dangerous than a cyclist wearing headphones. Beware of enraged individuals.
Try walking with headphones – the mic often picks up and amplifies sounds. It’s a careless bias. Sirens can be more piercing even with earbuds in. Maybe don’t go by what you see.
Lmao
Alan Kelly,exactly, you need to hear the traffic.
@Paul Whelan very funny lol!!! said nobody…..
@Fargo Boyle: Hear traffic? Why? why do you have to hear traffic?
So you’re aware what’s coming behind you and
From blind spots. Obviously eyes are more critical but countless times some idiot on a bike wearing headphones has swerved out in front of me. Had they had their sense of hearing,I doubt it would of happened. Listening to music in a very personal way i.e headphones is distracting. Your senses can you help you and keep you safe, cycling on a public road with traffic with one critical sense less is foolish and dangerous. I’m not entirely sure but,is it illegal now?
i hate the year on the number plate
makes people think they need a new car which is probably why we have it , does any other EU country do this
@David Cullen: Agreed. Why cant they have month and year , location as the number plate. eg 17 01 D 1234 would tell you, the car is (17) is 2017, month (01) is January, (D) is Dublin and 1234 is the 1234th car registered in that period. Looking at the present system more then 27% of cars are bought in January. This would enhance the second hand value of say November and December cars. (eg 16 12 D 213). They use that system in Portugal. At least it will space out more even cars sales throughout the year. Also help NCT and Motor Taxation queues.
I have an 09 Opel (well Vauxhall its a UK import) its running well and is in good condition. It has over 200k miles on it, mostly put on it by me, but why would I change for a 171 reg when the only real difference between them would be the numbers on the clock, straddle myself with circa €400 a month of a repayment bill to drive basically the same car as I have now, as cars haven’t really changed in the last ten years. Plus a second hand basic spec from the UK has the equivalent spec as the mid to top range spec in Rep of Ireland. The NCT (which is a massive scam) now means that cars are effectively worth nothing after ten years no matter how good of condition they are in. There should be some system where by if a car receives a certain “score” in the NCT test then the cert will last 2 years, between score A & B then the cert lasts a year, between score B & C then the cert lasts 6 months and below score C then it fails. This would actually encourage people to take better care of their older cars.
@Anthony O Reilly: Nct is a scam promoted by the simi and helped by the AA, Working in the trade for over twenty years Ive see stupid fails and some unbelievable passes,
We obviously need to break the registrations down to quarterly or even monthly now to keep the registrations active !
Have to admit that I really taken with the idea of an electric car. I have always been a true petrol head from my first mk1 savage cortina , capri’s , Granada’s and even a Manta 400 right up to our RX7 but I was greatly impressed with a friends Nissan leaf. I think it might very well be my first new car.
@Michael Clinton: but they’re so ugly… can’t wait to see how much Tesla Model III will cost here…
I know Daniel but I never said I would get rid of the RX7 , The “leccy” car would be the daily and the RX7 would be the weekend special. Mind you Completecar.ie have done some super reports on Hybred/electric cars.
@Daniel Dudek Corrigan: You better have a look at the new Hyundai Ioniq, it is certainly not what you call so ugly. No VRT either.
@Dave Green:
Do Hyundai pay their staff well Dave?
@P.J. Nolan Do any car manufactures pay their staff well.
@Dave Green: What about Renault Zoe? How does it compare performance wise? I’m thinking of getting electric car too?
I wonder what the increase in NOx emissions has been since the introduction of the new motor tax system.
Exactly. People got too hung up on the CO2 emissions when the NOX are far more harmful to humans (and far higher in diesel cars)
Yep. There are rumours that Honda plan to ditch diesel engines in the near future.
People were pushed into Diesel cars by the Greens. If you can afford a large BMW saloon car with €190 tax why wouldn’t you buy it.
As for Electric cars – we need to look at the end to end life cycle from production through use to disposal. They might not have as good green credentials as people think.
@Ted Logan: I drive a 2002 Mercedes. I could go out and buy a new one tomorrow, and I wouldn’t need a bank loan for it either. Personally. I think new cars are a phenomenal waste of money. I’ll let others worry about depreciation, and pick them up years later with low mileage and a good service history.
I paid 1500 for my current car 3 years ago and it has cost me nothing to run it beyond petrol, insurance, car tax, tyres, and a few bulbs and the annual service. . That’s 3 year of ‘cheap’ driving to date. In that time my insurance has rocketed to 1k, my car tax is close to 700 and my petrol consumption about 40 a week. So. I’m getting away lightly. I won;t change it until it costs too much to fix. If it lasts another 10 years, I’ll still be driving it.
Good point. Still, fewer components, so I guess the first wave might trade in all right if upgrading to a more streamlined one. Be good to see how they hold up. If they came down in price secondhand, more first-time drivers would try one.
What defines a new car being ‘sold’…On PCP finance?
PCP is the work of the devil.
As a a self employed person If I bought new van now in 12mths it would need a doe even if it has only 10km up on it.
Now why would i ever bother buying a new van/car van etc. For me personally if the doe was 100k or after 3 years then I’d be tempted to buy new more often but as it stands unless I win the lotto or I get a great trade in offer , I wont ever be buying anything new.
@Angry Gaming: DOe is way less stringent than the NCT though. Much easier to pass and there are also way more test centres as lots of local garages have the ability to test the DOE. I’d prefer the DOE to the NCT anyday. My van used to pass it no problem, when I’d be going back for a retest with the car.
@Mr Snuffleupagus:
While you may well be right regards the DOE been easier than the NCT, my own experience of having both a van and a car would back you up on that, the cost of the DOE is considerably higher (€95 compared to €55 for NCT) and you have to do it every year from year 1
I wonder what is the ‘right’ number of new cars per year. In that a number that ensures a good stock of quality, safe cars, but not at the expense of people buying new cars that they really cannot afford.
have your say