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IN NOVEMBER 1942, following the British rebuff of the German army at El Alamein in Egypt, then-UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill proclaimed this victory as a major turning point in the Second World War.
His words are by now well-worn:
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end.But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
The United Kingdom leaves the European Union tonight, but Brexit does not end there. The conclusion of the withdrawal phase is only the end of the beginning.
This is because the UK and the EU enter a transition phase on 1 February, during which little should change in daily life even though the UK will no longer hold EU membership.
The EU and UK must now negotiate agreements on their future relationship, covering a range of areas from security to trade.
An ambitious timeline
The British government says it would like to conclude these negotiations by the end of this year. Many on the EU side think this is much too short a timeframe.
International trade deals, for instance, usually take years to conclude, and Brussels would, therefore, like to extend the transition period by two years (as provided for in the EU-UK withdrawal agreement).
London, however, is currently adamant it will not agree to any extension of the transition, during which it remains aligned to EU laws and pays into the EU budget.
Both sides must take a decision on extending the transition (or not) by the end of June 2020, so the Brexit clock is already ticking again.
The core issue in those negotiations will be the trade-off between open access for the UK to the EU single market, and ongoing UK alignment with EU rules.
Crudely put, the British government must choose between a narrow interpretation of “sovereignty” and the ongoing prosperity of the UK economy.
May not be so easy
“Taking back control” of laws may appeal in principle, but in practice, almost half of UK trade is with the EU.
Brussels has offered tariff and quota-free trade to the UK, on the condition that it remains aligned with EU rules, in areas like industrial support, labour protections, product standards etc., to ensure a level trade-playing field.
The difficulty of that trade-off might explain why mixed messages have been emerging from London recently.
On 17 January the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid, told the Financial Times that British business should forget staying close to the EU: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule-taker.”
On 22 January Javid told a business audience in Davos, at the World Economic Forum, that “We won’t diverge just for the sake of it”.
For some harder Brexiteers, aligning with EU rules is akin to a “Brexit in name only” and better to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms – which would result in more barriers to trade, such as tariffs and quotas, than a more open trade deal with the EU.
If the EU and UK are unable to agree on a way forward by the end of this year, those harder Brexiteers will have their WTO-only wish.
One way around this, if both sides are unable to agree on extending the transition period by mid-summer, might be to agree on a so-called skeleton trade deal by the end of the year, containing basic objectives, and perhaps continue more detailed sectoral negotiations thereafter.
This “bare-bones” free trade agreement (FTA) would cause less friction for EU-UK trade than the WTO-only route, but it would still mean more friction than today.
A mountain to climb
No matter what happens this year, on 1 January 2021 there will more barriers to trade between Ireland and the UK, the question is how many more.
Moreover, negotiations on future EU-UK relations could take years. Even after framework negotiations conclude, in some ways Brexit will never end.
Like other non-EU European countries Switzerland and Norway, the UK will be continuously negotiating with the EU in some form or another, on one subject or other.
The EU, including the Irish government, has consistently said it wishes to have as close a relationship with the UK as possible after Brexit. It has never offered, for example, a quota and tariff-free trade deal to any other country.
True, that offer is conditional, partly to ensure that the UK does not have easier access to the 450 million-strong single market than EU members have.
As the EU member with the closest relationship with the UK, a cooperative EU-UK relationship is much more desirable for Ireland than a competitive one.
A lot hinges, therefore, on the choices the British government will make this year.
“Brexit day”
While today, “Brexit day”, is only the end of the beginning, Winston Churchill would probably have been most impressed with the emergence of such a strong European Movement in the UK.
He, after all, was one of the founding fathers of what became the European Movement International (and its British branch) after World War II.
Today, 31 January 2020 will be a sad day for all pro-Europeans, but British friends should remember Churchill’s advice to the Congress of Europe in 1948:
There is only one duty and watchword: Persevere…Persevere along all the main lines that have been made clear and imprinted upon us by the bitter experiences through which we have passed. Persevere towards those objectives which are lighted for us by all the wisdom and inspiration of the past: Persevere.
Noelle O Connell is Executive Director of the European Movement Ireland.
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‘A sad day for pro Europeans’??? Europe is not the EU and vice versa.
@Valthebear: Churchill was a leading advocate of a united Europe. He is probably turning in his Westminster grave
@Tommy C: that is incorrect. If you actually read what he said, and apply it to the state that Europe was in after World War II, he was not proposing what we have now. All about context.
Churchill would have vehemently opposed the EU.
@Tommy C: except he is not buried in Westminster….buried in Bladon.
@Tommy C: no he wouldn’t. He never envisaged Britain being part of it.
It’s going to be several months or maybe even several years time where the general British public come to realise they have been sold a pup.
The question remains to be seen what is the big pay off from being outside verses inside the EU?
To avoid tariffs the will need to stick to EU rules without having any say in said rules.
Good bye and good luck!
Glad to see them gone. After 3 years of political wrangling and brexit fatigue. Ironically this could be just the beginning of a tough time for Ireland if we don’t play our cards right. This saga could go on for a few more years.
@The Equalizer: and Ireland will not have the autonomy to make our own decisions, we seen this with a potential border being put through our island.
By October, if No Deal looks likely to happen, we have to change our position to being adamant that we get a bilateral deal.
@milton friedman: yes but that req b lenihan deal being laid before DAIL we are being Sked to elect td but that is not what they are saying at all.
Good article, rare to have an article teasing out what might actually happen and the follow on from that
The EU have no one to blame but themselves, bitter but its also sweet
It’s also Churchillian in the sense of being driven by racism and xenophobia.
@Derek Walsh: And let’s not forget, about the genocide he waged on the people of Bengal, where 3 million people were starved to death, while he was exporting tens of thousands of tonnes of rice out of the country. The Cromwell of the 20th century.
Three cheers is my comment for one reason and one reason only the UK cits have taken back control of their own money on principle that parliament has last say cos Parliament is accountable to people as td seek election to Dail on mandate, freedom to elect a taoiseach free to treat deal b lenihan made as min fir finance binding on the nation and the debt plus monies paid out without approval of dail that is accountable to people.
Vorer seek clarity that why it not coming cos td ceded dail control over all money in the central fund that mixed fund of tax and loan principal to the taoiseach and minister to write the cheques , no accountability to dail. subject to the terms of deal incl term that eu commission has say on expenditure or lack of it for purposes until 75 per cent of loan principle repaid.
Before dail td can deliver promises for DAIL req Dail to take back control of that fund and the deal and min for financeay bill before it req dail permission instructions on behalf of us taxpayers on the terms and in particular the term that in s and Anglo Irish Bank be merged not liquidation of ibrc and when agreed and approved by dail legislation charging fund a fund burdened with that p note linked to that term that can only be cancelled by an act of oireachtas repealing the credit institutions financial support act 08 the v act that prompted ecb to send lenihan to eu commission in first place and they td are doing the v same all over again the act passed only last year prescribing the payment from that central fund holding that loan money as Ross bailing out fai the sum of 500 million. P a into rainy day fund that minister can use for purposes in act incl when financial system.
And they say bail out over. U must be joking or seriously damaged cos two pieces of legislation on statute book charging central fund with cost of Bank at min decision they elect and the legislation only in place cos maj if TD voted but no legislation on statute book charging the fund with the cost of interest payments on the deal that taoiseach say not req, dail approval and no td challenged min authority to write this cheques without laying bill before dail.
No td challenge taoiseach decision that b lenihan and they have authority to treat deal as binding without legislation and the eu commission will be watching what people say also.
Brexit is coming and brexit cost but eu commission has made clear that brexut cost are not exceptional circumstances that can be used by Ireland to reduce deficits in public fund.
So td gave min freedom to use the money transferred fro Central fund to rainy day fund to use fir exceptional circumstances also.
Under constitution the govt is accountable to dail.but dail walking away by giving control of spending from fund to taoiseach they elect in legislation they vote fir.
Churchil was a terrorist c u next Tuesday, but was pro United Europe, simply to maintain Britain’s place in a changing world.
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