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LAST UPDATE | 17 Mar 2020
THE UK’s FOREIGN Office is advising against all non-essential foreign travel for an initial period of 30 days.
The announcement was made by the UK’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today in the House of Commons.
He told MPs that this decision is subject to ongoing review, and is based on measures taken in the UK and alongside other restrictions taken by countries around the world.
He said that the speed and range of changes in other countries is “unprecedented” and that some are being made without notice.
Raab also said that the UK government is aware that international freight services is essential, and so the Department of Transport will work with the freight sector to minimise disruption.
No time to lose
Meanwhile, the UK had “no time to lose” in changing its tactics in order to prevent thousands of Covid-19 related deaths and the National Health Service being overwhelmed, scientists have said.
The Imperial College Covid-19 response team – which is one of several scientific teams advising ministers – published a paper showing that 250,000 people could die if efforts were focused only on delaying and slowing down the spread of Covid-19.
The paper analysed the most up-to-date data from Italy and the UK and concluded that the only “viable strategy” was a Chinese-style policy of “suppression” of the virus, elements of which have now been adopted in the UK.
It said: “In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU (intensive care unit) demand due to Covid-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time.
However, the team warned that even suppression of the virus has risks, as “we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed” and some tactics may need to therefore stay in place until a vaccine is available, which could be 12 to 18 months away.
One of the lead authors of the study, Professor Neil Ferguson, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme it had become apparent that the previous tactics being adopted – which aimed to slow down the spread – would still result in a “very large number of deaths and the health system being overwhelmed”.
He said the science was continually shifting as more data became available, adding:
Initially when we came up with these sort of estimates they were viewed as what’s called a reasonable worst case, but as information has been gathered in recent weeks from, particularly Italy, but other countries, it’s become increasingly clear it’s not the reasonable worst case, it’s the most likely scenario.
Prof Ferguson said calculations from NHS planners on how much they could increase capacity in critical care played a key role in the research.
“Whilst they are planning a major expansion of that – cancelling elective surgery, building new beds, getting new ventilators – it just isn’t enough to fill the gaps that would be left,” he said.
“We are left with no option but to adopt this more draconian strategy.”
Prof Ferguson said the UK Government had got the timing about right but warned there was no time to lose.
Asked if more draconian measures should have come earlier, he told Today: “I think we are still behind the epidemic seen in other European countries, so there’s always a balancing act involved in these sort of measures in order to balance the impact of those measures, the costs on the economy against the impact on the epidemic.
“I overall think we have got the timing about right.
“I think we’re about three weeks or so behind Italy, two weeks behind France and Spain, so we are making these decisions in a more timely manner than other European countries but certainly there wasn’t any time to lose.”
The stark warning came after Boris Johnson yesterday unveiled unprecedented peacetime measures to try to control the spread of Covid-19.
They were announced as the death toll of people with coronavirus in the UK reached 55.
In the first of his daily No 10 press conferences, the Prime Minister called on people to stay away from pubs, clubs and theatres and to avoid all non-essential contacts and travel, while those who live with somebody who is ill should stay home for 14 days.
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The border counties of the Republic are at a huge risk due to the pathetic inaction of the UK government and the total lack of local leadership in NI…
@HairyTeeth: would that be the leadership SF are involved in
@HairyTeeth: best hope for the Irish people on the island of Ireland is complete lock down of the island and pull up the draw bridge Behind us!..unionists like the nationalists in the NORTH are very scared and worried by the direction of certain unionist politicians. We are one people of two traditions.green/Orange
@SFAnkleTapper: It would, but they can’t do anything due to the intransigence of the DUP.
@SFAnkleTapper: Do you anti-SF people ever give it a break? We’re literally living through history and you’re at your usually political point scoring crap.
You know very well the DUP are the ones tying NI to Britain in this regard. SF have been out in public saying they are trying to get NI to follow ROI. And by the way NI has a multi party government with SF the second largest party in it.
@SFAnkleTapper: SF don’t have the numbers to overrule the dumb DUP, What else can they do? if the executive collapse’s Boris rules NI totally.
@Derek Walsh: they have mouths..thet can issue their own advice…
@Laughable: living through history….ehh that’s every day
@SFAnkleTapper: Where have you been, that’s exactly what they’ve done….. why don’t you just admit you’re talking crap and take it on the chin.
@SFAnkleTapper: Do you have trouble with the English language, “living through history” means our children and grandchildren will be talking about this in the future. You’re either thick or just argumentative for the sake of it.
@Laughable: What about all your mandate guff down here.
One good reason why you should not stand down from Executive until there’s a closedown. Too dumb to realise DUP will then be left with the full blame. Sit on your hands. No leadership. No plan No nothing
@Martin Byrne: He’s doing it anyway.
@David Glynn: mandate guff? I’m not tied to any political party, I’m pointing out facts that’s all.
You however….
@Laughable: No you are not. Shinner narrative.
@HairyTeeth: don’t worry while not possible for Sinn Fein to go it alone they have successfully advised many schools to close and parents are also keeping children at home.
For those who advocate for continued divide on the island you might need to reconsider.
Even Fine Gael are starting to talk about this now following outbreak.
@David Glynn: I voted SF in the last election and it was the first time so no, I’m not tied to any party Im a floating voter actually, I was a Labour and FF voter, never FG though. You’re an id#*t. Talking out of your hole all over this forum constantly, I’ve seen loads of your trash copy paste crap everywhere.
@Derek Walsh: not only them, UUP and Alliance all voted with DUP to keep schools open..
@Karl Mc Cauley: The UK plan is different but the targeted outcome is the same, to have the 15 or 20 percent that will need hospitalisation spread out so the NHS can cope. Problem is they have more ICU beds per capita than we do, in fact NI has less than Britain too. NI is risking our lives in ROI with their actions. We really need to be taking an all-island approach. I would never say this but I think at some point if NI don’t get in line we will need to shut the main roads and rail between us.
@Bobby wilson:
… ‘unionists like the nationalists in the NORTH are very scared and worried by the direction of certain unionist politicians’.
Bobby. Please. Enough of the guff. Unionists are not scared by other unionists. Unionists are scared and worried about two things only:
1. The RA.
2. Being forced into a United Ireland against their will.
That’s it. Period.
While the border remains open with Ireland and NI… not great.
However, I live in the region. So many people have cancelled plans for the foreseeable future to meet with northern irish family members. People are strictly shopping local and not crossing border. Not to mention my county is a ghost town. I think the Irish people are doing fairly well.
Be a shameful time to be a British person.
@thenewguy: Not great not good enough.
ITS A PANDEMIC
@thenewguy: hopefully Johnson will get charged with genocide. He will kill off a generation of elderly people. Stopped a recession …killed 300k people. Unless of course his plan is to reduce the pension burden. I would put nothing last him
@thenewguy: asda strabane Bern half full of ire reg cars since thurs..
@David Glynn: well then you should lobby the Irish gov to block all access to this country with immediate effect. Post soldiers on the border and stop everyone trying to cross.
Elect a clown and this is the result
It is unforgivable that the UK Govt have allowed this virus to spread to every corner of the UK, without even trying to stop it. We all know that the action taken by China to order complete lockdown has worked and for the Unionists to follow them and put everyone on the island of Ireland at even greater risk is absolutely pathetic. The herd immunity experiment being carried out will cost a lost of lives and if the virus mutates it will all be in vain.
@GO GREEN: the WHO have already informed the UK that one of there herd immunity assumptions is false. There is no guarantee that you cannot catch the virus twice. But no way will BJ do what the EU is doing.
@Paul Furey: Yes totally, true there are now quite a number of cases where people have being infected twice.
@GO GREEN: Could we produce machine washable (or hand washable if you prefer) textile face masks in this country? If everyone had a simple mask and latex gloves on, we could carry on close to normal.
@Watchful Axe: You need to protect your eyes too. Of course if everybody stayed away from each other for 4 weeks, this virus would not nowhere to go and disappear.
@GO GREEN: there’s no example of people catching it twice. The RT-PCR test isn’t accurate (40%-60%) and often multiple tests are needed to detect the virus is nasal and throat swabs.
They mistakenly gave people the all clear, a second test found that was a mistake. Once you have immunity you can’t catch it again.
https://www.wired.com/story/did-a-woman-get-coronavirus-twice-scientists-are-skeptical/
@GO GREEN: also think of what you said, if people get reinfected because they don’t develop immunity, it mean no vaccine, or isolation, or lockdown will work. No one ever gains immunity, the disease will never stop infecting and re-infecting people. All we do will be useless and there’s no need to debate who’s policy is better as the disease will be hear month after month and year after year. Epidemics will never end.
@David Jordan: True in the vast majority of cases but there are exceptions https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-test-positive-recover-a9404056.html
The UK have made an absolute show of themselves with this.
@Kev: their policy is simple “Dont do what the EU is doing”
The fawning Unionists still scuttle behind Boris like an unwanted but loyal old dog. Perfectly willing to put the whole Island at risk, to follow Britain into chaos rather than come together with their fellow Irish people and fight this unprecedented threat to life. They are craven and servile to the point of being dangerous now. There has to be a united response in every county to protect all citizens in all jurisdictions. It’s going to be a very different world in Spring 2021 and there is no time for letting DUP make decisions on wether we live or die
They changed tact when they realised they couldn’t save the economy because the US were also starting to get draconian.
@Peter McGlynn: Presume you meant “tactics”, not “tact”..?!?
@Matt Carroll: No. He meant change ‘tack’. It’s a sailing term which describes when one changes course by turning a boat’s bow into and through the wind.
Hope I’m wrong but I just don’t believe China, 80k cases in a country of 1.4 billion, going by other countries infection rates this doesn’t seem plausible.
@Laughable: Your right not to believe them…….and you shouldn’t believe them when they tell you it all started with a ‘bat’ either.
@Laughable: And 93 cases in a country the size of Russia ?!! Something doesn’t add up
@Ríain HenC: And none in North Korea …….
@Laughable: True but when they went to lockdown they really went to lockdown.also different cultures will spread the virus differently Not sure about Oriental culture but Italian culture would involve a lot of embracing close contact etc. Just like Irish when we’re plastered.
Can we close the border with the north thanks
“Flattening the curve” is the key here folks…..I suggest we reinstate Mary Harney and get her to sit on it!!
We’ll be waiting on First Minister Arnold to do anything positive
We’ll be waiting on First Minister Arnold to do anything positive
Were all of the commentators here brought up in the old, authoritarian, mono-cultural Ireland? The Church, sorry WHO, has laid down the law and it must be followed blindly and anyone who disagrees with it must be excommunicated. The UK is getting its own scientific advice. You might not like that it differs from the advice that the Irish Government is being given but are you qualified to say that it is wrong?
@David Glynn: Ya I can just envisage that meeting ..
What will we do about David Glynn? … Who the F is David Glynn? … He posts anti SF rhetoric on the Journal comments section … Is he getting much interaction? … Well there is this Logan Shepherd guy encouraging him to bring it to Stormont ….. Should we kneecap him? … No .. keep away from him .. did you see the size of his dog? … No I didn’t .. you only see his upper body in the picture …. Jeez .. his dog .. I said his dog … I’m talking about kneecapping David Glynn not Logan Shepherd ffs …. To be clear .. Is David Glynn a threat to SF? …. No … Should we go ahead and kneecap him anyway? … Nah …
Thanks be to jaysus
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