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Opinion Colm O'Regan crunches the Covid-19 numbers, and sums up isolation matters

When you look at virus modelling, staying at home now makes absolute sense, writes O’Regan.

IT’S A GRIM daily ritual. Waiting for the numbers of new cases. The increase is nearly always bigger now. There is a powerlessness associated with it.

For a small amount of, probably misguided, self-care I try to gain control of the numbers. Just to write them down in a list. There’s something you should know about me – I do like a spreadsheet, and since early March, I’ve been filling the numbers on corona dot xls.

Friday’s number was 683, an increase of 126, or 22%. Thursday’s increase of 191 was 52% higher than Wednesday. Those numbers don’t look too far apart. And percentages are only ‘bits of things’ aren’t they? But do a small experiment.

A little effort yields a lot

If you have a smartphone, open up the calculator. It might be located near other stuff you didn’t know ‘this yoke could do’, like the compass, the four-inch ruler or the mirror. Don’t get distracted by your reflection, just open the calculator. This is important.

Put in Friday’s total, 683. Pretend new daily cases arrive in from now on at that same rate. Multiply it by 1.22 as a guess of what it might be today. Multiply the answer again by 1.22. Do that another six times. So by a week’s time, we could have 2,748 cases if we carried on at the same rate.

Now do the same but multiply 683 by 1.52, as if we had a week like Thursday’s numbers. Next Friday we’d be watching a press conference announcing the number 12,803. Ten and a half thousand cases is a big difference. The difference between properly socially isolating and acting the maggot.

This is the scary power of exponential growth. Which is how viruses grow before we get a grip on them. Like, literally, epic and legend, exponential is one of those words that has had its meaning diluted over the years. But exponential has come roaring back. You might have first seen exponentials in first-year maths in secondary school. A small number appearing above the x in algebra in Double Maths after lunch with the radiators and the winter sun putting you to sleep.

You’ll hear on the news that the virus is growing exponentially. It means a thing is growing over time at a rate that’s proportional to the size of the thing itself. The more people have it, the faster others will get it. You see exponential growth in the compound interest, in your savings account (if you’re lucky enough to have one) but the rate of growth is so tiny you might as well put it under your mattress. How we’d only love a virus that grew at a deposit rate right now.

Even if the virus grew at 22% a day, the ‘Friday’ rate, in my half-arsed spreadsheet, theoretically 100,000 of us would have it by the middle of April. Now, a basic spreadsheet is only useful for a very first guess of possible futures. A simplistic extrapolation.

Infectious disease modelling

Medical maths must be smarter than that. It uses mathematical models. A model is a set of very complicated equations that mimics the behaviour of a system in certain conditions. A system can be physical like the weather, biological like disease or social like crowds.

So for an epidemic, they are modelling what the virus does – how contagious, how it’s passed on – and how people behave. You would think people are hard to model because there’s nowt as queer as folk but mathematicians do a reasonable approximation. They look at age, location and also random chance encounters between people and a rake of other factors.

It’s a far advanced level of the maths we did in school but there is still a direct line from Folens New Complete Mathematics algebra to here. The last equations some of us might have done in school were simple: “What kind of a thing do we get if you square a thing, add four times the thing and add another fifteen?”. Whereas modelling of infectious diseases would be like solving our above equation in a strong wind, while someone was hitting you with a stick, and the other fella you were expecting got stuck in traffic in the Jack Lynch tunnel. 

Bless the mathematicians

Models aren’t perfect. They can’t take into account the unknown – political, financial or behavioural. But they start us off. They gain the attention of politicians and eventually the wider public.

Ultimately it’s all about finding one important number. The virus’s basic reproductive number, R0 (R-zero), tells us how many other people you would infect if you had the coronavirus. With a number less than 1, the disease would die out eventually. If it was 1 the disease would carry but wouldn’t explode and if the RO was greater than 1 eventually the virus would spread and become an epidemic. 

According to the models, the R0 for Covid-19 varies between 1.5 and 3.5. That’s if we do nothing. Call it the ‘Cheltenham option’. A lot of public health work aims to reduce R-zero to below 1 because then the virus would then die out. That’s what social distancing, physical distancing is for. And why queuing for the Blanch Krispy Kreme with the squad is a bad idea. But Ringsend Flats Bingo is a better one.

It all boils down to this. In this weird war with an invisible enemy, one that you can’t simply tell to ‘eff off’, we can feel like we are at the mercy of the numbers. But we are the most powerful agent in all of these models.

Look at your calculator again and that grim daily multiplier. The power to change it is in your hands (which you should wash).

Colm O’Regan is a comedian, author and broadcaster.

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    Mute Awkward Seal
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:21 PM

    They’re not going to make that journey anyway. Look at how Australia stopped the boats.

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    Mute Nazerene
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:05 PM
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    Mute Marlowemallow
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:16 PM

    @Awkward Seal: “Withdrawing support doesn’t work, he says.”

    What a careful question he was asked. You’ll notice he wasn’t asked whether or not towing the boats safely back to the coast of north Africa would ‘work’ – i.e. save lives equally well while also reducing the incentive for others to risk drowning. Or whether or not sinking the trafficker boats after safely returning the passengers, or offering a bounty for those who identify the traffickers, would work. Or any question other than the one to which he obviously gave the correct answer – which is why his opinion is being published of course.

    Fortunately members of our military don’t make policy anyway Although arguably they couldn’t do much worse on this issue than our politicians currently do.

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    Mute Ben Moylan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:07 PM

    Why don’t the journal.ie bat out of the woods and give us a poll.. Should we send the Irish Defence Forces Into Libya and protect the coastline and exterminate the smugglers.. WE are great at talking the talk but useless at walking the walk..prevention is better than the Cure..

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    Mute Joey Westland
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:08 PM

    @Ben Moylan: Are you suggesting the Irish Army invade Libya and carry out non-judicial murders?

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    Mute Frederick Higginbottom
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:12 PM

    Of course they’re going to risk the journey if they know they’ll be “rescued” into a permanent cosy European life, at the expense of that country’s citizens through added pressure on housing, jobs, welfare, education, and so on.

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    Mute Joey Westland
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:34 PM

    @Frederick Higginbottom: How selfish of them to want to have a better life like the one you have, the cheek!!

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    Mute Maurice Bourke
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:03 PM

    @Joey Westland:
    Breaking rule 14 but if they want to they can follow the legal route to do things instead of going the illegal route.

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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:35 PM

    @Joey Westland:

    That’s what visas are for. If you want a better life in Europe and have skills that we need, you’re more than welcome. We are not obliged to take in unskilled, poorly educated and socially backwards individuals who will only be a drain on our economy and cause social problems such as mass sexual assault and terrorism.

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    Mute Peter Martin
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    Dec 28th 2016, 2:31 AM

    @Jason Culligan: Stupidity and ignorance cannot be legislated for but, there is a law on the statute books which make it an offence to incite hatred against others on racial and several other grounds. You and others might bear this fact in mind before indulging your racist proclivities on this site.

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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    Dec 28th 2016, 9:25 AM

    @Peter Martin:

    “You and others might bear this fact in mind before indulging your racist proclivities on this site.”

    Thanks for that utterly useless comment Peter.

    I’m well aware that inciting hatred based on racial grounds is illegal. You’ll note that I never once called for violence towards migrants or called for them to be returned to their port of departure because of their race. I simply pointed out (and Eurostat agrees by the way) that the majority of those coming in have a poor level of education and poor understanding of European languages and culture which will mean that they will struggle to adapt to our culture and attain gainful employment.

    Do try harder next time.

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    Mute Pat Stapleton
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:13 PM

    Answer the Irish Navy better ,if they Ran These Supertankers from the Irish Sea,stop them sucking OUR Future Food source from Our Sea.

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    Mute Bob Beaman
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:18 PM

    Ok Pat, two things disturbing about your comment. One, you know those fishing vessels have a right to be there as our government sold our waters as part of the EU package?? And two, you are saying you would prefer to watch human beings drown so a part of our food source is protected??? Seriously?

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    Mute Michael Shimaoka
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:25 PM

    @Pat Stapleton: So, you’d prefer it if people fleeing from active warzones drowned? Okay?

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    Mute Bryan Yelahw
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:25 PM

    @Pat Stapleton: Maybe, that was not the question though.

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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:42 PM

    @Bob Beaman:

    “One, you know those fishing vessels have a right to be there as our government sold our waters as part of the EU package??”

    Those fishing vessels are also under quotas to prevent overfishing and the destruction of the environment. Our navy is primarily built around the task of patrolling our waters and enforcing quotas on these fishing vessels.

    “And two, you are saying you would prefer to watch human beings drown so a part of our food source is protected??? ”

    As harsh as it sounds, they are not our problem. There are plenty of Spanish, French, Italian and Greek navy vessels in the area that can conduct the task. Our paltry naval force is already overstretched patrolling our waters with all of their assets available. It’s not just about ‘protecting the fish’, it’s interception of dangerous narcotics which have a lasting and damaging effect on our society that is suffering as well.

    @Michael Shimaoka:

    By all means, pick them up. They should be delivered right back to source once they are. Providing them with the guarantee that a ship will pick them up 20 miles from shore and deliver them in safety to Europe only serves to encourage more migrants to take the risk.

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    Mute Brian Ward
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:16 PM

    How about instead of spending millions helping out the smugglers and saving them money by ferrying people to Europe we educate the migrants as to how dangerous the journey is. If they knew how bad it was they themselves said that they wouldn’t go. All we are doing at the moment is encouraging people to make the journey and in the process spend probably their life savings in doing so. That’s if they don’t get shot, raped or drowned in the process.

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    Mute Maurice Bourke
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:01 PM

    @Brian Ward:
    How dare you introduce common sense into this humanitarian issue. You must be a racist, misogynist, transphobic, kkk-supporting, Donald Trump voting, fake news spreading, heartless, ableist, capitalist, bigot. We must listen and respect these peoples views but you deserve to be silenced.

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    Mute Michael Shimaoka
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:26 PM

    @Brian Ward: How about actually trying to fix the problem? Educating the migrants isn’t going to solve very much.

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    Mute Maurice Bourke
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:42 PM

    @Michael Shimaoka:
    Informing them about how dangerous it is, might be a start.

    ‘The documentary ends with a question put to one of the migrants: would you have gone on the boat if you had known how dangerous it would be?

    No, is the resolute reply.’

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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:31 PM

    @Michael Shimaoka:

    “How about actually trying to fix the problem? Educating the migrants isn’t going to solve very much.”

    Why is Eritrea being an economic backwater suddenly our problem to fix Michael? Why is the fact that some people can’t get jobs in Pakistan all of a sudden relevant to us?

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    Mute Beachmaster
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:27 PM

    https://twitter.com/BILD/status/813775197283061760 7 asylum seekers were arrested in Germany for attempting to set fire to a homeless person in Berlin. 6 of them were already known to police.

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    Mute Mike Cantwell
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:55 PM

    Now Beachmaster they weren’t any old Asylum seekers they were Muslim Asylum seekers , oh the cultural enrichment that’s coming to us just imagine Pakistan , Libya , Algeria , Syria , Somalia just look what these places have to offer us , it will be like time travel but instead of going to the future it will be going back centuries , back to the Middle Ages

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    Mute Maurice Bourke
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:41 PM

    @Beachmaster:
    Why bother with that just put up a link to the einzelfall map

    15
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    Mute Ben Moylan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:40 PM

    Amount of comments being deleted. the Journal.ie can’t handle the truth..

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    Mute HOTBank
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:48 PM

    I guess the journal has lawyers who determine whether they might face legal action if they leave certain comments up which either defame individuals or are in breach of the criminal law. Perhaps, Ben, you should consider that and find a way to express your opinion in a proper way.

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    Mute Marlowemallow
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:33 PM

    @HOTBank: They have a much more comprehensive policy on comment moderation than that. And their implementation of it is questionable.

    I say that as someone who’s been the ‘beneficiary’ of comments being deleted that engaged in speculation about my being a member of some far right party. I didn’t report those comments, because I support free speech within the limits of the criminal law and because you can’t slander an anonymous egg, but the journal clearly have a problem with such speculation.

    Since you clearly haven’t even read their comments policy your ‘advice’ to Ben is worth just about what he paid for it.

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    Mute Martin
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:21 PM

    Yes we should welcome them with open arms just like Cologne did.

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    Mute Awkward Seal
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:22 PM

    They’re not going to make the journey anyway. Look at how Australia stopped the boats.

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    Mute Johnnie Sexton
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    Dec 27th 2016, 9:34 PM

    This should be tackled at the source rather than picking up at sea. There’s no point closing the stable door when the horse has bolted. The UN hasn’t been the much use preventing human tragedies, Rwanda and Bosnia for example when the un failed miserably to protect innocent people from being slaughtered. Not much has changed in relation to this.

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    Mute Ben Moylan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:17 PM

    @Joey Westland.Where Was Skin And Colour Mentioned? Pale face..

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    Mute Shawn O'Ceallaghan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:35 PM

    I think the anser is….. yes…

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    Mute Shawn O'Ceallaghan
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    Dec 27th 2016, 8:43 PM

    Answer

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    Mute Mrs M
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    Dec 28th 2016, 9:58 AM

    Where are the women and children fleeing from warzones ? the majority of “asylum seekers” are young male economic migrants !

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    Mute Dessie Deratta
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    Dec 28th 2016, 1:39 AM

    Libya is a mess created by Western foreign policy. Can I “sit back” and watch people drown?

    Of course – what else can I do?

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    Mute Mateo85s
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    Dec 28th 2016, 4:21 PM

    Why all of them going to Europe? Who start war in their country?

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    Mute Peter Martin
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    Dec 28th 2016, 2:21 AM

    Clearly, a majority of Irish are extreme racists. The hideous anti African venom being spouted on this site by fairly literate Irish makes me wonder about the precise origin of such hatred. I’m fairly sure that these commentators have never known any black people on a personal level. Not enough anyway for such clear hatred to develop. So, as far as these people are concerned it’s none of our business as to why thousands of refugees are risking their lives for years in order to cross the Mediterranean. Leave them drown is the consensus of opinion. It’s their problem, not ours. I’m sure few if any are unaware that the U S and Nato have been responsible for the continuous state of war waged by our neighbours on oil producing Middle Eastern countries causing loss of life and population displacement on a scale unprecedented since World War 2. So, it’s down to cheap fuel ! Rob their oil. Let them drown like rats. If anyone objects label them ‘terrorists’. What a f$$king country!!

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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    Dec 28th 2016, 9:33 AM

    @Peter Martin:

    “Clearly, a majority of Irish are extreme racists.”

    Considering the fact that you’re the only one making this about race, I must disagree.

    “The hideous anti African venom being spouted on this site by fairly literate Irish makes me wonder about the precise origin of such hatred.”

    Wanting a ‘return to port of departure’ policy is not anti-African venom. It’s a sensible and practical solution to the problem at hand which could save thousands of lives every year.

    “I’m fairly sure that these commentators have never known any black people on a personal level.”

    You complain about broad strokes and make a broad stroke assumption. You might want to look in the mirror before you judge others mate.

    “So, as far as these people are concerned it’s none of our business as to why thousands of refugees are risking their lives for years in order to cross the Mediterranean. Leave them drown is the consensus of opinion. It’s their problem, not ours.”

    You know, I’ve yet to find a map which places Ireland in the Mediterranean. In fact, we’re over 3,600km from Libya and even further from the countries which are the source of most of these migrants. We have no obligation to help.

    “I’m sure few if any are unaware that the U S and Nato have been responsible for the continuous state of war waged by our neighbours on oil producing Middle Eastern countries causing loss of life and population displacement on a scale unprecedented since World War 2.”

    You know, I wasn’t fully aware of the fact that the US and NATO have invaded and occupied Eritrea. What’s the latest news? How many dead and wounded?

    “So, it’s down to cheap fuel ! Rob their oil. Let them drown like rats. If anyone objects label them ‘terrorists’. What a f$$king country!!”

    The majority of those coming in are not from the Middle East, but don’t let that stop your ‘all of you are racists and only I am morally just’ rant.

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    Mute Peter Martin
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    Dec 28th 2016, 12:30 PM

    I don’t waste my time replying to racists.

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    Mute Mike Cantwell
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    Dec 28th 2016, 12:36 PM

    Try an be an adult Peter and respond to Jason !

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    Mute Raymond Power
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    Feb 25th 2017, 3:57 PM

    You just got OWNED !!!

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    Mute Dino Manning
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    Dec 27th 2016, 10:31 PM

    Give them the money we set aside for lone parents & children’s allowance.

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