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A STUDY OF over 70,000 cases of Covid-19 in China has determined a death rate from the virus at 1.38%, lower than previous estimates.
The study also outlines that the hospitalisation rate for the virus increases greatly with age but that, without intervention, the coronavirus would “overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide”.
Nearly one in five over-80s infected with Covid -19 are likely to require hospitalisation, compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to the study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal.
Differences in hospitalisation rates are observed across all age groups, with 11.8% of people in their 60s, 16.6% of people in their 70s, and 18.4% of those in their 80s and above estimated to develop symptoms severe enough for hospitalisation.
In Ireland, the latest figures record that persons over 65 years old represented 44.1% of all hospitalisations and 88% of those who have died.
The new analysis of the cases in China also finds a strong correlation between higher death rates and age.
The estimates are slightly lower than others that have been made for the virus, but are still much higher than for previous outbreaks such as the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which was estimated to be fatal in around 0.02% of cases.
This study has estimated the death rate for confirmed cases Covid-19 at 1.38%, while the overall death rate, which includes unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%.
These rates are slightly lower than some estimates for Covid-19 to date, which have ranged from 2% to 8%.
The study concludes that past estimates had not adjusted for the fact that only people with more severe symptoms are likely to be tested. Nor did they take account of people being in quarantine following repatriation to other countries.
This meant they did not reflect the true number of cases across populations.
Hospitalisation
The authors warn that because 50% to 80% of the global population could become infected with the virus, the number of people needing hospital treatment would likely overwhelm most healthcare systems.
However, they caution that it is possible that outcomes could improve, in which case it will be important to revise the estimates in this study.
“This study provides critical estimates on the proportion of people requiring hospitalisation which, when applied to the UK population, enabled us to get a handle on how many people might need to access NHS services,” Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London said of the research.
“As the UK epidemic unfolds, more data are becoming available, and at the moment the proportion of people in each age group most likely to require hospitalisation, and most likely to die from infection, are consistent with the estimates in this study.”
The authors of the study also note that they are unable to adjust for the effect on the prognosis of underlying health conditions until individual-level data become available but add that underlying conditions are likely to be correlated with age.
Such conditions will also vary geographically, particularly between low-income and high-income regions and countries.
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Deliberately targeting civilians and those trying to leave.
There is zero, ZERO justification for these absolute atrocities.
Watching Radio Free Europe on YouTube atm, one Russian young guy saying he told his 93 year old father living in Ukraine that is all fake, just goes to show how Putin is manipulating the media as what’s going on under their noses.
@Ian O’Donovan: and what did the 93 year old father reply back?
@Jim: I have my mates missus, who’s living in Oz for 20 years spouting the cr2p … it’s the russian separatists in Ukraine doing it all, nothing to do with Russia. I can totally understand people in Russia buying it, but expats, no excuse.
Russian supporters / Bots slow off the mark this morning.. Putin is building years of hatred of the Russian people.. very sad..
Why is there still a Russia embassy in Ireland? Kick them out permanently, and give the building to a Ukrainian family to take over.
@Seán Ó Briain: last thing the West would want to do is to completely cut them off and create another iron curtain or North Korea. Sufficient pressure to force others in Russia to depose the dictator and preferably key players in his regime but not to completely diplomatically isolate them. It’s a balancing act.
@GrumpyAulFella: I’d say if the Russian people copped that they would be a pariah state similar to N. Korea, they’d burn the Kremlin to the ground. Despite the internal propaganda, they also know what the ‘western’ world is like and until the war kicked off, could enjoy a western lifestyle. Losing something like that could be a catalyst to fire up the locals enough to oust Putin.
@GrumpyAulFella: personally I’d be happy to see another Iron Curtain as long as it starts along the borders with Belarus and Russia. Anyone on the western side who wants to live a life of drudgery in Putin’s la la land would be free to go. A heavily mined and patrolled no man’s land with a shoot first and questions later policy for anyone who puts a foot over it.
The time has come to use more than sanctions
Presumably Putin will point out that events at Kramatorsk were staged by Ukrainian forces for its sounding similar to crematrium.
Time to use more than sanctions
I’ve been saying for a while that the west, whether it be under the umbrella of the UN, EU or NATO need to start thinking about entering this conflict militarily. Yes I am obviously aware of the potential for it to escalate to nukes but how long can we stand by and watch Russia behave like this. We’re still talking about Nazi Germanys horrific crimes 80 years later. The war crimes committed during the Yugoslavian war in the 90s too. Let Russia know through back channels if necessary that they have x amount of days to withdraw but if they don’t they’ll be removed and any attempt by Russia to launch a Nuke will result in them being flattened back to the Stone age. I think you’d see an attempt to remove Putin from within given such a scenario. Russia can’t continue to behave like this.
@Gerry McCaughey: I agree. But let me sign up … I’ll not have anyone fight on my behalf while I sit at home .
Both sides claim that the other is responsible. The missile which was used is a Soviet legacy one called Tochka-U. It has been widely used by Ukraine while the Russians are using Iskander missiles although I believe that they still have some in storage. There is a relatively simple way to find out who it belongs to. The serial number on the engine can be compared with the lists of who got what when the Soviet Union broke up. That way we will know the truth and those responsible can be held to account. This is also why there needs to be completely independent investigation of the atrocities happening there.
@Des Hanrahan: Even if the serial number said it was Russian, the Kremlin will claim it was stolen and used by Ukrainians. They never really admit to anything.
@Des Hanrahan: tell me Dessie boy .. which country has sent their army into invade another ???
@Pablo: des doesn’t believe Putin can do any wrong .
@Des Hanrahan: Russia and Belarus have both been using this exact missile in their exercises leading up to the Russians illegal invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign democratic state, do not be misled by Putin apologists who dare to suggest that this might have been a false flag event, your comment isn’t far off suggesting this…
@Des Hanrahan: — It would be naive in the extreme if you think that someone couldn’t fudge a few serial numbers that have been kicking around for a few decades, if anyone even bothered to record them in the first place. Serial lying is a way of life in Putin’s circle, and I wouldn’t believe him and his fellow gangsters whatever they announce.
@Des Hanrahan: at it again Des!!! Defending the indefensible. Muddy the waters and make it seem like the Ukrainians are just as likely to have committed this attack. Odious individual
Hitler and Stalin reincarnated and called Putin
Genocide.
Please stop this childish Russia-bashing.
That was a Ukrainian missile that Killed those people in Kramatorsk railway station.
The Western Media know this but have been told to report it as a Russian atrocity.
The same evil false reporting was made in the Bucha ‘incident’.
The US REGIME and its NATO stooges have an awful lot of blood on their hands.
Sadly, when it’s proved beyond ALL doubt that these terrible incidents were staged and perpetrated by SS’ELENSKIY’S NAZISS, ( with US REGIME support) the Western Media still won’t apologize to Russia or the World for their evil scandalous false reporting and incitement to hatred.
@Mike Walsh: ahh pro Russian paper has already confirmed they did it ,saying they were attacking Ukraine Soldier base at the station.
They are now killing there own people in eastern Ukraine, Remember the last fellow done that, didn’t end well.
@Mike Walsh: go hang out with your friend Des. See you next Tuesday.
@Mike Walsh: Mike believes that Trump won the election in the United States and that he was rubbed, he believes the Covid epidemic is a big scam, that Malaysian flight 17 wasn’t shot down by the Russians in 2014, don’t be like Mick, don’t be misled by Marjorie Taylor Greene and for Gods sake stop listening to Josh Rogin, between you and me Mick, the earth isn’t flat.
@Mike Walsh: shameful individual. Putin’s poodle
have your say