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Number of people infected by a confirmed case of Covid-19 has fallen again

Every person who contracts Covid-19 is expected to spread it to no more than one other person, the figures reveal.

THE NUMBER OF people that a person with Covid-19 is infecting in Ireland has reduced further, the Dáil heard today. 

The reproductive rate of the virus refers to how many other people a confirmed case goes on to infect.

Speaking in the Dáil this afternoon, Health Minister Simon Harris said the modeling work in relation to the virus shows the reproductive rate has fallen from between 0.5 and one.

Last week the figure stood between 0.7 and one.

If this figure remains below one and continues to fall, it’ll mean that the virus isn’t being passed to other people, said the minister.

The original reproduction rate of the virus was 4.7 – meaning one person infected almost five other people on average.

On 16 March, a person infected with Covid-19 here would “likely” infect another 4.3 people, the minister said at the time. By the end of March the figure had dropped to 2.5 people.

“I’m very pleased to inform the house today that the reproductive rate has fallen even further to between 0.5 and one. What that means for every one person who contracts Covid-19, we now expect that they will spread it to no more than one other person,” said Harris today.

“The model shows that at the beginning of April, around 100 people per day were being admitted to hospital with the virus. I’m pleased to inform the house today that the model mentions that that figure has fallen to around 40 people a day, a significant reduction. The number of people in intensive care is also falling and the number of people being discharged from ICU is rising,” he added.

Harris said he is aware there has been much speculation and discussion about the potential easing of restrictions.

“It’s human nature,” he said, stating that it is something that “keeps many of us going”. 

He said the next steps of how restrictions can be lifted will be published in the roadmap due to be released before 5 May.

Harris said public need to stay focused on adhering to the measures.

The Taoiseach said the “new enemy is complacency”.

The easing of public health measures will be gradual, he said, stating it “will require continuous effort by all of us to suppress and control this virus”.

“The easing will not necessarily mirror the manner in which they were escalated,” said Varadkar, adding:

“We must have a period of time between taking each step so we can monitor the impact.”

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