THE REPRODUCTION RATE of the Coronavirus in Ireland has remained between 0.5 and 0.8, according to health authorities.
Bringing the reproduction rate – or the R0 – below 1.0, and keeping it there, has been a key aim for the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) in order to slow the spread of the virus.
In an update on currently modelling of the virus spread this evening, Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group confirmed the reproduction rate has remained “comfortably” below 1.0.
Nolan explained: “The overall growth rate of the disease in the population has been close to zero since the beginning of April… when we look at the reproduction number for the entire population [...] we have two ways to look at that.
“One is a statistical technique… which looks back on all of the confirmed cases by the date the test was done… and that number which had been brought down by the earlier social distancing measures, was brought comfortably below 1.0 and we now estimate it to be 0.8.”
He said another model which uses information on the number of cases, information on the number of deaths, and timing of various social distancing measures, “suggests that the reproduction number before any social distancing was 3.6… we currently estimate it to be lower at 0.5″.
Public health officials will tomorrow advise Government on whether measures can be relaxed in any way, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar expected to give an update later tomorrow evening.
Both CMO Tony Holohan and Nolan indicated that there will be little, if any, easing recommended to Government.
Nolan said: “There’s still a very significant prevalence of disease, or incidence of disease, in the population and it’s divided in three segments; what’s going on in the broader population, what’s happening with healthcare workers and what’s happening in residential care where cases are still rising or beginning to plateau.”
Speaking today, Simon Harris urged the public to continue to abide by public health guidelines and said thousands of lives have been saved so far, describing it as “quite an achievement for the people of this country”.
Reports of complacency and increased movement among members of the public had given way to fears that the recent progress in stopping the virus might come undone.
“By now, I know you know what this means but I do think it’s important to reflect on,” Harris said.
“We think of all of those families grieving at such a difficult time. But thanks to the incredible efforts of the Irish people, our modelling suggests that we, that you the Irish people, have now saved over three and a half thousand lives.
“That is 3,500 reasons to stay at home. 3,500 reasons to stay the course and 3,500 reasons to keep with us on this journey.
“If we want to continue to save lives, we must stay united. We must stick together. I understand the fatigue that people are feeling at this stage, I really do… it’s human nature. We’re all human and denying ourselves of many of the things that are most intrinsic to our very humanity.”
This evening, health officials confirmed a further 43 people diagnosed with Covid-19 have died and there are 359 new cases of the disease in Ireland.
It brings the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 20,612. There have been 1,232 reported deaths associated with the coronavirus since the beginning of the outbreak in Ireland.
With reporting from Christina Finn
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