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Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, right, with the British PM David Cameron. David Cheskin/PA Wire

Column The British government is facing separation anxiety

But this isn’t about Ireland for a change as the Falklands and Scotland look to upcoming referendums on their future, writes David McCann from the University of Ulster.

IT APPEARS THAT battles over self-determination are now not just confined to Ireland these days. Both Scotland and the Falkland Islands are embarking upon a referendum to decide their nation’s future.

Yet it appears from polling that neither of these referenda will result in a change of constitutional status; so even the humblest student of politics could be forgiven for asking: what the point is of holding a ballot when there appears to be no appetite for change?

It is important to state from the outset that we are dealing with two very different cases. The government of the Falklands is seeking to hold a referendum to reaffirm its connection with Britain while its counterpart in Scotland is seeking the exact opposite. Yet both have much in common as they are provoking what can only be called a separation anxiety in some quarters.

Take the case of Falkland Islands, a place with just 3,000 residents and more 7,000 miles away from Britain yet still the issue of sovereignty is re-emerging in the British media thirty years after the Falklands War. Why is it that relations in the fifthteen years immediately following the war
were better between the islands and Argentines than they have been in the last decade?

Well it’s important to look at the internal politics of Argentina, since its economic collapse in 2002, the nation led by Néstor Kirchner, who took over as president in 2003 embarked upon a programme of economic and national resurgence. An important part of this was reinforcing Argentina’s claim to the Islas Malvinas (Falkland Islands) going so far as to ban energy companies who were active on the islands from doing business in Argentina. This same policy is being followed up by Kirchner’s wife and current president, Cristina Fernández, who has succeeded in getting other Latin American countries namely, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay to restrict access of ships using the flag of the Falkland Islands.

“There is of course the power of oil”

There is more to this story than just fervent nationalism being driven from Buenos Aires; there is of course the power of oil. Since 2008 exploration around the islands began with between 8 to 60 billion barrels of oil to be found which to put a price tag on it would mean a tax windfall of $180 billion for either the Falkland Islands or if they get their way Argentina. When they found oil off the coast of Brazil, the then president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, described it as ‘gift from god.’

Now Argentina hopes that similar good fortune will land on its shores. Do not be fooled by the narrative being portrayed by the Argentine government, this recent saber-rattling is about getting a share of the profits that are likely to be found off the coast of the Falklands and an attempt by a president desperate to bolster her sinking approval ratings. When Falkland Islanders deliver their verdict next year; it is unlikely to receive a sympathetic hearing from Buenos Aires but the remarkable thing is that I suspect it won’t care as it continues garnering support among its neighbours for a push towards sovereignty over the islands.

Closer to home there is the issue of Scotland which, unlike Argentina, is having a referendum being led by a government that recent polls have said 71 per cent of the Scottish people say they trust and by a party whose avowed goal is the independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom. Since he was re-elected with an overall majority last year, First Minister Alex Salmond began preparing the ground for a referendum on independence seeking out Hollywood stars like Sean Connery and Brian Cox to come to Scotland to help launch his campaign for independence.

The only remarkable thing about the campaign launch was that many of the people arguing for independence don’t actually live in Scotland anymore.

Yet despite Salmond’s popularity and the famous ex-pats who are trying to help him, recent polls show 55 per cent of Scots planning to vote no to independence. Similarly to the Argentina/Falklands dispute, oil and gas have a lot to do with this debate. Since oil started coming on shore in the late Seventies, the Scottish National Party (SNP) had begun gaining electoral support using terms that are still used by Salmond today such as ‘Scottish Oil’ and ‘Our natural resources.’ The economic case for independence rests largely on the oil and gas revenues that would be needed by Scotland to rebalance its economy and provide much-needed money for the new state starting off.

“It is no wonder that the British government appears to be suffering from separation anxiety”

Also what of the British government? Would it be prepared to give up the billions of pounds that are still due to flow in its coffers if the referendum succeeds?

It is no wonder that the British government appears to be suffering from separation anxiety as it attempts to deal with on the one hand a referendum in the Falkland Islands with a near-assured favourable outcome and a prospective aggressor nation who is winning the public relations battle for its case. Then in Scotland, we have a similar case of a solid lead on the side opposing independence and a British government seemly incapable of making the case for staying in the United Kingdom.

In this, Britain needs to be wary as the example of the Quebec referendum on sovereignty in 1995 illustrate that a popular leader can revive a movement towards independence. The British government could do well to remember that Salmond and Fernández only have to win their political battles on these issues once, while the British government will have to be prepared to argue their case always.

David McCann is a PhD researcher in Irish politics at the University of Ulster.

Read previous columns by David McCann>

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23 Comments
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    Mute Billy Connelly
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:09 PM

    Im at home snuggled by the fire about to have a hot dinner brought into me whilst having a glass of wine. I feel so sad for victim’s of this trafic light debacle….:)

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    Mute Paddy Hayden
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:44 PM

    @Billy Connelly: I think that’s where the Guards are too . At least they’re aware of the issue .

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    Mute Patabake Kennedy
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:49 PM

    @Billy Connelly: I say, sitting in this traffic with all those wexford lowlifes peering at my beemer is excruciating. How uncivil of the lower class to even venture onto such an exclusive area as the outstanding N11. How uncouth.

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    Mute thenightmancometh
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:41 PM

    @Billy Connelly: Its a jake. A total jake.

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    Mute Billy Connelly
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:48 PM

    @Paddy Hayden: Their monitoring closely

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    Mute Billy Connelly
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    Oct 19th 2017, 10:33 PM

    @Patabake Kennedy: really? Im home, back in my home in Wexford having driven from Dublin 4 in my lovely Skoda. I love watching from my car window all the Audi and Beemers whilst in traffic wondering how the otherside live

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    Mute John Nolan
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:30 PM

    Have The Guards forgotten how to do traffic point duty.

    109
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    Mute Jamie McCormack
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:56 PM

    Good point John. It’s still a part of the driving test to know your various signals.

    24
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    Mute Jonathan Power
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    Oct 20th 2017, 12:38 AM

    @John Nolan: there still looking for Noreens phone

    12
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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:08 PM

    It’s chaos in a lot of other areas as well.

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    Mute Theportobello
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:17 PM

    Is this what passes for a headline on the Journal?

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    Mute Darren Tully
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:59 PM

    @Theportobello: I think it’s more of a public service anouncement I’m thankful for reports of serious traffic delays that help me avoid them.

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    Mute j4VEpUO8
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:20 PM

    A Garda station only 20 seconds up the road. God help us!

    54
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    Mute JustOneScoop
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:13 PM

    The entire day was a ball of crap.. Also thanks to the cars that ran into each other at the Glen of the downs. Kudos for not keeping distance. 2 1/2 hour journey home

    108
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    Mute Joseph Dempsey
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:20 PM

    Intriguing,it would be helpful if the traffic corps could spend less time tweeting and more time actually managing this mess

    45
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    Mute Sean
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    Oct 19th 2017, 10:18 PM

    @Joseph Dempsey: maybe the tweeting unit tweets and the traffic unit does the traffic?

    18
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    Mute David Huston
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:19 PM

    Hope some Bemer doesn’t rear end my Audi guys, Right.

    50
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    Mute Del Bear
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:09 PM

    I just got the bus in from stillorgan to town and it was grand!

    31
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    Mute Stephen Collard
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:09 PM

    It was a mess all day!!

    40
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    Mute ⚡ Seánie ⚡
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:32 PM

    FFS. Doing night shift to avoid people, not get stuck in traffic with them.

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    Mute Eoin Kenny
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:15 PM

    It took me 2 hours to drive from the square Tallaght to bray an absolute nightmare.

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    Mute Nick Allen
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:22 PM

    @Eoin Kenny:

    Not surprised it took you 2 hrs if you are going from Tallaght to Bray via Donnybrook

    111
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    Mute Eddie O'Neill
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:40 PM

    @Eoin Kenny: Any relation to that thick country vegetable, Enda Kenny? (only joking with you Eoin, it was a rough day on the roads of Dublin (and Wicklow) ).

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    Mute Reg
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:08 PM

    Sandymount was the same earlier, backed up from the Merrion Gates to Ringsend. Luckily I was on two wheel…..so long suckers!

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    Mute Dj
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:17 PM

    @Reg: I’d say your Ringsend is backed up from that saddle!

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    Mute Reg
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:18 PM

    Regular as clock work DJ!

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    Mute Anthony Halpin
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:10 PM

    Heard that there’s a powercut in Donnybrook, traffic lights out.

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    Mute Anthony Halpin
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:13 PM

    @Anthony Halpin: …. just as he sees it in the article …

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    Mute aoife shanahan
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    Oct 19th 2017, 10:58 PM

    It’s extremely dangerous when a junction that has traffic coming from four different directions is left with no signal and not a guard in sight. They’ve been aware of the situation for hours and their only response has been a tweet to avoid the area. This is actually negligent. I hope that a serious accident doesn’t happen!

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    Mute eimsley
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:55 PM

    EVERY SINGLE DAY IN GALWAY. Every day

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    Mute john g mcgrath
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:16 PM

    Thousands of Guards in Dublin and we can’t get 2or3 to do point duty at one of The busiest junctions in Dublin.
    To serve and protect my arse!!!

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    Mute j4VEpUO8
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:22 PM

    @john g mcgrath: ohh they protect alright. We all know who..

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    Mute Matt Connolly
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:46 PM

    @j4VEpUO8: Did you not hear? They’re replacing the trffic corp with the Communications Corp. They’ll soon be rolling it out across the whole force. You’ll be tweeted where crime is happening so you can stay away, if you don’t and get caught up in it, it’s your own fault for putting yourself in harms way when you’ve been warned.

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    Mute Sean
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    Oct 19th 2017, 10:19 PM

    @john g mcgrath: I’m sorry but why does your arse need protecting?

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    Mute Charlie Melia
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    Oct 20th 2017, 5:11 PM

    @john g mcgrath: Agree totally John. Mainly lazy thugs who don’t want to work in extreme conditions when they are needed most. After my experience with two family members being burgled….. One visit by one Garda who never checked back. Considering one family member was 80 years of age. I thought it was an absolute disgrace.

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    Mute Lad
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:14 PM

    The outage may have come from storm Brian.. because some young girl said it…

    10
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    Mute Eddie O'Neill
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    Oct 19th 2017, 9:00 PM

    At 6ish traffic out of town was very bad today on the Donnybrook, Leeson St, Ranelagh routes, were the lights out since that time anyone know?

    9
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    Mute SkylineSi
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    Oct 20th 2017, 7:39 AM

    I was stuck right in the middle. Was chaos. Everyone just trying to force their way through. Even some passenger, in a wife beater top, got out and tried to direct traffic. He nearly got side swiped. I called Donnybrook Garda station twice but no answer. Only 20 secs up to road but no where to be seen.

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    Mute Austin hickey
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    Oct 19th 2017, 11:27 PM

    The Garda are to busy

    6
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    Mute Patabake Kennedy
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    Oct 20th 2017, 12:22 AM

    @Austin hickey: Yeah. scrachin your self wears these guys out all right.

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    Mute scanlanavia
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:52 PM

    shucks.. first world problems…

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    Mute The Watcher
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    Oct 19th 2017, 8:21 PM

    That’s only the beginning. Wait until they start testing the LUAS more intensely tomorrow. Trams ruining every 3 minutes in O Connell street at 10kph.

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    Mute Simon Conneely
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    Oct 20th 2017, 4:37 PM

    If there were more flyovers on existing junctions past shankhill heading towards city centre there would be no problems

    1
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