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The European Commission has slashed Irish and eurozone growth forecasts

But the Commission expects the Irish economy to grow by 6.25% next year.

THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION has downgraded its 2020 outlook for the Irish, eurozone and broader European Union economies.

Commenting on the latest forecasts, European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, said that “the pandemic has hit the European economy harder than previously expected”.

In its summer economic forecast, the Commission has pencilled in an 8.5% decline in Irish gross domestic product (GDP) — the total monetary value of all goods and services produced in the Irish economy — for 2020.

The latest prediction represents a decline from the Commission’s last set of forecasts, released in May, which predicted a 7.9% drop in Irish output for the year as a result of the pandemic.

It now estimates that the Irish economy will grow by 6.25% in 2021, a slight improvement from the 6.1% growth rate forecast in May.

The Commission’s outlook for Ireland this year is marginally more optimistic than that of the Irish Central Bank. In its Quarterly Economic Bulletin, published last week, the Bank forecast Irish GDP to decline by at least 9% this year and by as much as 14% if the government has to reimpose strict shutdown measures as a result of a second wave of Covid-19.

However, the Commission expects the Irish contraction this year to be slightly below the eurozone a whole but above the expected shrinkage of the broader European Union economy. 

It now believes that eurozone GDP will fall by 8.7% this year, up from 7.7% in May’s set of forecasts, while the economy of the European Union as a whole is forecast to decline by 8.3%, up from 7.3%.

The commission also lowered its forecast for a potential economic rebound in eurozone 2021, pencilling in growth of 5.8%, down from the 6.1% predicted in May.

Speaking to reporters, Gentiloni said that these predictions might already be too optimistic.

“Risks are mostly but not all on the downside”, he said.

“Assumptions about the pandemic could be too optimistic. In the absence of a vaccine and treatment options for Covid-19, any sustained increase in the number of infections or further major outbreaks would worsen the economic outlook.”

Gentiloni also highlighted the uneven nature of both the recession and next year’s predicted recovery across the constituent economies of the European Union.

He explained that this was due to the fact that some countries, like Germany, were able to restart business activity at an earlier stage while other countries, such as Spain, have had to reimpose localised restrictions.

“Divergences across countries in terms of both the recession and the rebound are related to different timing and stringency of lockdowns and containment,” he said, “as well as different economic structures, namely exposure to tourism and services reliant on person-to-person contact.

“As we have revised our assumptions about containment measures, the expected differences across Member States have also become larger.”

European Commission executive Vice president Valdis Dombrovskis added, “The economic impact of the lockdown is more severe than we initially expected. We continue to navigate in stormy waters and face many risks, including another major wave of infections.

“Looking forward to this year and next, we can expect a rebound but we will need to be vigilant about the differing pace of the recovery.” 

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:47 AM

    I am 39 and not at risk. I’ll be shocked if I am offered a vaccine shot this year. But I’ll be very angry if my right to travel internationally is curtailed for any longer than the end of the summer. Enough is enough.

    552
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    Mute bmul
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:59 AM

    @Fi Wyse: I would imagine before much longer countries will not let you enter unless you are vaccinated .

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:03 AM

    @Fi Wyse: I’am 54 and apparently at risk. Couldn’t give a flying fluvk about you being angry.

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    Mute bmul
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:12 AM

    @Paul Gorry: I’m not at risk but agree with you .

    185
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    Mute Marcus Padraig O'Loinnin
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:39 AM

    @Fi Wyse: forget about the deaths . all the matters is Fi Wyse is not angry and gets a holiday

    318
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    Mute Barry Somers
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    Feb 15th 2021, 3:59 AM

    @Fi Wyse: I’m not at risk,
    But you know what, I’m more than happy for everyone that is at risk to be vaccinated ahead of me and if that takes until even mid 2022 I don’t care if I can’t get on a plane until then.

    The important thing is deaths are prevented.

    I guess some people care more about others then some other people.

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    Mute The Guru
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    Feb 15th 2021, 4:14 AM

    @Fi Wyse: what most people don’t seem to realise (or are in denial about) is that the vaccine just stops people getting serious illness. Young people still won’t be able to travel around as they could still spread it and there’s a higher chance of mutation of more people are moving around. International travel is likely years away.

    100
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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 4:49 AM

    @The Guru: there is data to suggest that the Astrazeneca also stops transmission. No data has been released on the two MRna vaccines but their makers are hopeful

    40
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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 4:52 AM

    @Fi Wyse: boo frickin hoo! We’ll all be offered a vaccine by the autumn according to the stats with 3 vaccines on the go and the increase in deliveries in the summer. Chances are it will be sooner as they’re expecting two more vaccines to be approved by the summer. But selfish attitudes like yours makes me hope that yours takes a bit longer. People are dying every day and all you care about is your holiday

    179
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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 5:40 AM

    @Ger: Selfish, nope, I’ve obeyed every rule impeccably since 13th March 2020. Travel has been very important to my personal wellbeing having family and good friends abroad, you’re failing to see that everyone has different needs in life to keep mentally and physically well.
    Selfish, no impatient for normal life to return, yes absolutely and I am not alone.

    182
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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 5:41 AM

    @Marcus Padraig O’Loinnin: I’ve obeyed every rule impeccably since 13th March 2020. Travel has been very important to my personal wellbeing having family and good friends abroad, you’re failing to see that everyone has different needs in life to keep mentally and physically well.
    Selfish, no impatient for normal life to return, yes absolutely and I am not alone.

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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 5:49 AM

    @Fi Wyse: I saw my family for a few days over Christmas, before that I hadn’t seen them since the summer. I havent seen any of my friends so far in 2021. Everyone is affected by this, not just you. But if me sitting my butt on my couch for a few more months means that some people might be able to have their loved ones around for a few more years I’m happy to do it, and anyone putting a foreign holiday ahead of that is selfish.

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 6:10 AM

    @Ger: I didn’t see any of my family over Christmas my 70 year old mother had dinner on her own I didn’t even get dressed on Christmas day and didn’t eat out once in the lead up too it. I haven’t seen my Dad in over a year.
    I’ve followed every rule down to a T like I was asked but now I’m struggling a lot (like everyone else)
    I’m not ashamed that travelling is my go to thing that helps me feel better in life.
    People can troll all they like says more about them than it does me!

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    Mute Brendan Higgins
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    Feb 15th 2021, 6:32 AM

    @Paul Gorry: im in my 40s and very much at risk apparently but i agree with fi wyse enough is enough i had covid back in march but still im locked down like an animal

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    Mute Finnster
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:28 AM

    @Fi Wyse: just think about how selfish you sound . You probably didn’t mean it but you didn’t come across well with that comment

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    Mute CSR
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:30 AM

    @Fi Wyse: my thoughts exactly!!

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    Mute CSR
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:32 AM

    @Barry Somers: or some people need to travel to see family they haven’t seen in a year. Or whose partners live and work in a different country. Don’t assume it’s about holidays!

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    Mute Big bad bull
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:41 AM

    @Fi Wyse: you can buy a dose of a vet in Ballina for €200 and a bag of maverick

    14
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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:52 AM

    @Finnster: I’m not selfish. I’m honest and like I said already I know I am not alone.
    With your argument people who want the pubs open are selfish.
    People who want the salons open are selfish.
    People who want the schools open are selfish.
    We all have different needs in life, it’s not selfish, it’s just people are not hardwired to all want the same thing.

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:53 AM

    @Big bad bull: Sign me up lol

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    Mute Madra
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    Feb 15th 2021, 7:55 AM

    @Fi Wyse: 39? More like 44

    15
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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:09 AM

    @Madra: Of course I look older sure the botox clinic is closed mate haven’t been able to get my dose of youthfulness! Do you think I really am bothered with what age you think I look like ya old dog, you are barking up the wrong tree there.

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    Mute Barty
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:31 AM

    @Paul Gorry: I work in a blue light service come in contact with all sections of society, no date for me or my colleagues to get vacation. I’m bloody fuming, expected to do the job with a mask a pair of gloves and a lot of luck.

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    Mute Liam Meade
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:42 AM

    @Fi Wyse: stomp yer foot you plet them know

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    Mute Bramley Hawthorne
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:52 AM

    @Fi Wyse: At 39 you can expect to be vaccinated, in all probability, in the 2053 rollout, possibly.

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:57 AM

    @Bramley Hawthorne: At the rate they are going I believe you.

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:57 AM

    @Barty: That’s shocking I thought you would have all been the priority??

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    Mute frank_1916
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    Feb 15th 2021, 9:01 AM

    @Fi Wyse: me me me poor me

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 9:13 AM

    @frank_1916: No not poor thank god and like I said I’m not the only one who feels this way.
    It’s mad how people don’t have the ability to discuss something properly and they just go on the attack, quite amusing. It’s ok to not agree with somebody but you should not let yourself down with your response. Just makes you look silly really.
    The art of debating is lost sad really.

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    Mute J
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    Feb 15th 2021, 11:41 AM

    @Fi Wyse: shocked and angry shouts at cloud

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    Mute Brynþór Patrekursson
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:01 PM

    @Fi Wyse: the vast majority of people have adhered to advice, but this pandemic is not over and going on holidays is still out of contention for this year. There is no point in getting this far and then being part of a fourth wave because you think you’ve done enough. We haven’t, and add long as 1 person travelling can expose their destination to the virus, then we have to continue to stay home. It’s bad form to mention your personal well-being, as every one is in the same boat. Have patience, the rollout will be late August at the earliest, and then it might be safe to go on holiday in Ireland – forget about sunspots.

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:13 PM

    @Brynþór Patrekursson: Why is it bad form to be completely honest with what is getting to me, all we do is tell people to talk and look out for each other, because what’s bothering me doesn’t fit the status quo then I should just keep my thoughts to myself. Interesting, not a concept I wouldn’t agree with myself.
    Anyway back to the topic of the day, I believe travel can be done safely, pcr testing before during and after holidays to sensible safe hotels with strict rules and quarantine on arrival home. Not every Paddy wants to sit in a karaoke bar every night. And yes I do have several staycations booked, the rain doesn’t bother me.

    6
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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:50 PM

    @Fi Wyse: so you’re basically saying that you have abided by the restrictions so far to save lives but you’re getting to the point that your summer fun in the sun is more important than those lives? Got you. And it’s not trolling, it’s stating facts. Everyone is making sacrifices,, including you so far and your mother. Her eating dinner alone is awful and my heart breaks hearing stories like that. And yes it is affecting us all but if people start saying “feck the restrictions” now then the hard work this past year will have been for nothing. Hang in there. We’re on the home straight. Read the reports from Israel about how well their program is working at protecting people. This time next year it will be a D and better world

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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 2:08 PM

    @Ger: I never said anything anything about anything being more important than saving lives. I was stating I am reaching the point of how much more I can take. And a lot of people appear to feel the same way. I’m not looking for fun in the sun, like others said we have family abroad that we would love to see in real life and I believe it can be done in a safe manner.
    I’ll probably have no choice but to sit it out but that doesn’t mean I can’t state that I’m struggling with it because it was/is a big thing in my life.
    If you told me you were down because you couldn’t do something which was important to you but deemed not essential by the powers that be I wouldn’t berate you for it tell you to cop on and call you selfish etc.
    Hopefully the programme will get moving quickly.

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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 2:22 PM

    @Fi Wyse: I apologise for being as harsh as I was. Sometimes I get on a roll with responding to the truly awful comments on here and I don’t put the breaks on where I need to, so again sorry. Think that come the summer we will be in a better place. They have said they expect everyone in the country to have been offered a vaccine by the end of September. You’re on the younger side so it might be late summer for you. Plan a big autumn holiday and try to give yourself something to look forward to. Hopefully new vaccines coming into the market will get things done even quicker..

    4
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    Mute Fi Wyse
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    Feb 15th 2021, 2:36 PM

    @Ger: Ah look this comments section should come with a health warning lol no need to apologise. Sure what else would we be doing with our time! Is there anything to be said for another mass?

    3
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    Mute Kevin Farrell
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:40 AM

    “The Helix will be used by 121 GPs this week to vaccinate 1,600 of their patients.”

    Are they serious??? That works out at less than 2 people per day vaccinated by each of those GPs.

    “480,000 people aged over 70″ to receive the FIRST dose by mid April (2 months). That’s well over a year to give the FIRST dose to 80% of the population.

    It has become quite clear that the rate of vaccination is and will continue to be way behind the rate of supply. Absolutely embarrassing at this stage. How long will immunity last and what other new variants will come along while these ninkinpoops in the HSE screw up the vaccination programme?

    334
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    Mute bmul
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:42 AM

    @Kevin Farrell: more vaccines and more supply with speed up the process

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    Mute Kevin Farrell
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:43 AM

    @bmul: Supply is outstripping the rate of vaccination.

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    Mute bmul
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:47 AM

    @Kevin Farrell: this is a world wide problem yet you blame the HSE ? More companies are starting to help with supply we should be a lot further along in 3 months .

    51
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    Mute Kevin Farrell
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:52 AM

    @bmul: it’s a global emergency. Governments need to sequester the resources of the Pharmaceutical companies who have developed the vaccines — developed with public monies I might add — add pass this technology to other pharmaceutical companies, especially in the developing world so that they can multiply the rate of production.

    Notwithstanding that, the rate of supply in Ireland is still outstripping the rate of vaccination. So there is a problem with the programme. They should be able to keep up with vaccinations given the supply is so small at the moment. What that shows is that even if they could obtain more doses, the rate of vaccination will still be crawling along.

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    Mute bmul
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:01 AM

    @Kevin Farrell: more companies are stating to produce other companies approved vaccines , how can you tell the future with regard roll out .

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    Mute Olga Levis
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    Feb 15th 2021, 6:51 AM

    @Kevin Farrell: these are GPs with a small cohort of age appropriate patients. As these vaccines come boxed in 36s or 100, it’s the only way so that there is no wastage. Its a 6wk roll over progeamme starting with 1600. 2wks time it could be 3000. Then 2 weeks after that itll be dose 2 (1600) and the next cohort which could be 7000. So it builds every 2 weeks. DCU is a brilliant venue. Easily accessible for all the patients and lots of parking and disabled facilities. Some GPs wouldnt have those facilities and allow for social distancing

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    Mute Anthony Keenan
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:21 AM

    No easy task to organise the logistics for this. Solid planning seems to be in place, so fairplay to Professor Brian McCraith and his team. Inevitable that there’ll be a few small hiccups along the way, but fingers crossed everything goes as smoothly as possible.

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:37 AM

    @Anthony Keenan: inevitable there’ll be a lot of hiccups along the way. So I’ll keep me toes crossed for reassurance.

    43
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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 4:55 AM

    @Anthony Keenan: Well said. Lots of negative Nellie’s on here but the amount of work being done on this is mind blowing. Hopefully when the dust settles on this the people in our health service and other front line staff get the raises they deserve

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    Mute Brynþór Patrekursson
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:06 PM

    @Anthony Keenan: doing a good job, but not great – they should be preparing for a best practice review on why the GP system doesn’t know how many patients are where, and they are making a guess with medical cards. Also, they don’t know how many front line are still unvaccinated, how many gp surgeries have a few over 70s that could be included in each batch. Basically – the GP data system is not for for purpose nationally and has too many private, out of control systems to be able to support mass vaccination and management of risk.

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    Mute Bramley Hawthorne
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:47 PM

    @Anthony Keenan: “…fingers crossed everything goes as smoothly as possible.” That’s actually a phrase from the Programme for Government.

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    Mute GER
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:45 AM

    12000 this week is absolutely pitiful

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    Mute Lovett Jan
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:39 AM

    @GER: I’m 72 cocooned for a year I’m vulnerable it’s too long to wait

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    Mute Lovett Jan
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:40 AM

    @GER: 8 million dosed in uk

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    Mute Brian Ó Dálaigh
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    Feb 15th 2021, 2:38 AM

    @GER: that’s 12,000 in the 85 and older category. 10,000s of others in the healthcare industry are also due to get vaccinated this week. The article didn’t really make that clear enough.

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    Mute James Lough
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    Feb 15th 2021, 3:28 AM

    @Lovett Jan: 15m in UK

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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 4:59 AM

    @Lovett Jan: that’s just in the helix if I read it right. It doesn’t include the 1000s that will be vaccinated in GP surgeries and other centres around the country. Chemist’s are starting soon too, right?

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    Mute Olga Levis
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    Feb 15th 2021, 6:56 AM

    @Ger: yes. Absolutely. People dont seem to understand the mammoth task in hand. The programme has been slow but to be fair we cant blame the HSE on this one. You can’t vacxinate if you havent got the vaccine. As a fronline worker i got my first dose yesterday in the phoenix park and i can honestly say it was some operation. Ive had to sit 6+ hours of webinars to now become a vaccinator

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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:55 PM

    @Olga Levis: I’ve heard good stories about the operation in the Phoenix Park. Good luck going forward and stay safe. Thanks for all you do.

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    Mute Paul Mc
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:01 AM

    The blind leading the blind,the government spin doctors are going to be earning their money for the next 6 months at least.

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    Mute Max Power
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:21 AM

    You would not have as much build up to Pay Per View mcgreggor fight as to this over 85s getting the jab…. every news bulletin & papers on about it …journal articles every few hours…… HSE must be paying a fortune on advertising for this roll out…. Guaranteed we get pictures and story of 1st over 85 to article tomorrow…… can’t wait to see who gets jab first.!

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    Mute Ally Mc Culladgh
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:37 AM

    @Max Power: McGreggor didn’t he beat up an elderly man? Does he deserve a “build up”?

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    Mute Ally Mc Culladgh
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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:39 AM

    @Max Power: And Max? You don’t have to read those articles if you don’t want to :)

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    Feb 15th 2021, 1:53 AM

    @Ally Mc Culladgh: thanks for the sound advice….enjoy the rest of the build up .

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    Mute David Stewart
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:27 AM

    Donald Trump will be president of America again before the population of Ireland get the covid 19 vaccine.
    Approx 22,000 over 85’s in the R.O.I very good, Doctors vaccine 12,000 a week, 2.5 weeks approx.
    Then 80/84 yr old to be vaccinated. Probably then 78/80 yr old and so on.
    I will not be let out of my county, or Ireland again in my lifetime.
    At that rate I will be asking St Peter to vaccinate me.

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    Mute Tony Humphreys
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:44 AM

    @David Stewart: you have a human right to leave your country, and to return

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    Mute Stephen Campbell
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:57 AM

    “Living with Covid”… Stay indoor and don’t live your life… For another 12 months… at least..

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    Mute Greig Fairfield
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    Feb 15th 2021, 9:04 AM

    It is beyond a joke at the speed the vaccine is being rolled out. There is no reason why first aiders, ie. Red Cross, St John’s, Community cfr’s, firefighters etc could not be trained in administration of the vaccine. Paying GP’s and taking them away from their practises….. If there was a doctor and nurse on site in each vaccine centre.

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    Mute Kevin O'Hara
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    Feb 15th 2021, 9:46 AM

    Luke O Neill on Pat Kenny there saying the HSE are being too cautious with the roll out of the Astra Zeneca vaccine. Apparently sticking with a 4 week period between doses instead of the 8 to 12 weeks that the WHO recommends. Surely they should be vaccinating as many people with the first dose as possible. Very little information on this coming from the HSE or the Minister but that doesnt surprise me

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    Mute Andy Dillon
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    Feb 15th 2021, 8:04 AM

    Looks like all is in place for vaccines rollout. Just have to wait now.. Hopefully it will speed up over the next months. Enough of the hysteria..

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    Mute Dodong De la Cruz
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    Feb 15th 2021, 9:14 AM

    WHAT ABOUT US IF OUR GP DOESN’T GIVE COVID VACCINE

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    Mute thesaltyurchin
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    Feb 15th 2021, 9:27 AM

    Important to get them back to work.

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    Mute John Kelly
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    Feb 16th 2021, 12:40 AM

    They don’t have the vaccines available. That’s why it’s slow. That’s why they start with over 85′s. Managable. and it’ll be May by the time they finish the over 70′s. It’s all about focusing on the positive but it does show how behind the curve the EU was when it came to purchasing the vaccines.

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    Mute Conchubhar MacGhuidhir
    Favourite Conchubhar MacGhuidhir
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    Feb 15th 2021, 12:38 PM

    12,000 per week and a very conservative guess of 3,000,000 people to be vaccinated that equates to 250 weeks 4 years and 9 months

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