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Professor Philip Nolan at tonight's briefing. Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie

'An awful lot of young people might have to die' if we were to pursue herd immunity strategy, Prof Nolan says

Dr Ronan Glynn said this evening “it’s certainly not a strategy that will be adopted in this country”.

SENIOR PUBLIC HEALTH figures have spoken out very strongly against Ireland adopting any strategy akin to “herd immunity” to tackle Covid-19 and made clear it’s not a strategy that will be adopted here. 

Pursuing it would ignore the long-term health effects for some people who develop Covid-19, would mean many young people would die and make it more difficult to prevent older and more at-risk populations getting ill and dying from Covid-19.

This concept has been frequently referenced since the beginning of the pandemic, and basically suggests that lockdowns would be avoided by allowing the virus to spread amongst communities while putting in safeguards to protect those most at risk of getting seriously ill or dying from Covid-19.

The hope is that, eventually, a natural immunity to the disease is developed.

In the early days of Covid-19, it appeared the UK government was pursuing such a strategy but that quickly changed as lockdown measures were introduced amid a sharp spike in cases, hospitalisations and deaths. 

After being raised at the Oireachtas Special Committee on Covid-19 response earlier, public health officials at tonight’s Department of Health briefing spoke strongly against the idea of pursuing herd immunity. 

NPHET’s epidemiological modelling advisory group chair Professor Philip Nolan said tonight there was no guarantee herd immunity would work and is ethically questionable.

“The problem with that entire strategy is first of all there’s no guarantee that we will build up herd immunity to a significant extent by letting the disease travel through young people,” he said.

An awful lot of young people might have to die in order for sufficient infections to occur to get anywhere near it. 

Professor Nolan also said that said that “even if it were ethically” appropriate to suggest that more at-risk groups from Covid-19, such as older people, isolate themselves from the rest of the community while such a strategy was being pursued, there’s no guarantee they wouldn’t get the disease.

“I could certainly never advise we take the kind of risks explicit in adopting this kind of strategy that allows this disease to travel through young people with some, in my view, vain hope of protecting older people,” he said. “And also in the unproven hope it will render the population immune for future infection.”

HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry said the evidence is not justified in people having a sustained immunity after they’ve caught this virus. Specifically referencing safeguards on nursing homes, even the strongest defences wouldn’t protect residents there if the virus was allowed to spread rampantly in the community, he said.

Dr Henry said that isolating older people and letting them “fend for themselves” is “simply not acceptable and has no place in any civilised society”. 

Acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn added that the strategy ignores the increasing evidence around the long-term effects of Covid-19 on people of all ages. 

“This disease has consequences for people of all ages. It’s certainly not a strategy that will be adopted in this country,” he said. 

These comments echoed comments on herd immunity made earlier today at the Oireachtas Committee.

Addressing TDs, former chief epidemiologist for Sweden and senior World Health Organization figure Dr Johann Giesecke said there was no “100% effective way” of allowing younger populations to catch the disease and also prevent its transmission to older people, particularly in care homes.

He said: “Sweden never had herd immunity as a goal or strategy, but the strategy of protecting the old and vulnerable while allowing some spread in the population has had the by-product of herd immunity.

“I do not agree with the zero-covid approach.  I do not believe it is possible or feasible as a solution.  We would need to do it in each country in the world.  Otherwise, it cannot work. New Zealand managed to go without any cases for 102 days and then had quite an outbreak.”

With reporting from Christina Finn and Michelle Hennessy at the Department of Health

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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 6:56 PM

    We will never see the trial of Irish Bankers for mortgage fraud and theft.

    584
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    Mute Unitedpeople
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 6:59 PM

    @Fiona deFreyne: …Or Bertie Ahern, Michael Lowry or a media mogul held to court account either. They all know TOO much!

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    Mute Boyne Sharky
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:15 PM

    @Unitedpeople: “It’s vital that justice is not just done, but is seen to be done.” – except where Irish banks are concerned.

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    Mute Billy McNamara
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:26 PM

    @Unitedpeople: I really would pay to see those three cro#ks taken away in irons.

    42
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    Mute Dave Hammond
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 10:54 PM

    @Fiona deFreyne: we have such a long way to go to get anything remotely near the level of transparency a modern ireland deserves – anything like more broadcasting and public transparency from the legal system should be welcomed by the public – also the previous article on the journal about the disclosures tribunal doesn’t allow comments – an example of how backwards our systems can be – I totally understand during a live court case they close comments – but tribunals were suppose to help us shine more light on matters of interest – the public were outraged about the Garda whistle blowers treatment and a tribunal was agreed – yet all I see every day is painfully slow tangents and stories daily which seem like side shows – which while reported daily in the journal -the public are not allowed to comment ?? Seems outdated to me that there is a public gallery in tribunals and yet we cant comment on social media ?????? Why are comments not allowed ???

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    Mute Liam McGowan
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:03 PM

    All courts should be available on line or tv. Then we could say justice is seen to be done.
    All courts should run from 9am to 5pm. Enough judges should be appointed to ensure no backlog is built up. Justice delayed is justice denied. Free legal aid should be capped at two and after that you pay for yourself.

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    Mute Gary Kavanagh
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:52 PM

    @Liam McGowan: What about the TV license?

    9
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    Mute Ben McArthur
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 8:57 PM

    @Liam McGowan: The courts are open to the public. Why not get off your butt and go along if you care that much?

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    Mute Mark McDermott
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    Oct 24th 2017, 8:24 AM

    @Ben McArthur: work maybe?

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    Mute GetAGripWouldYa
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:02 PM

    Comments are closed as this is before the courts.

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    Mute ⚡ Seánie ⚡
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 6:58 PM

    The rulings will be null & void now because of some law involving the broadcasting of the verdict. Wait & See.

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    Mute Tweety McTweeter
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:06 PM

    I’m sure the Supreme Court judges know better than you or me

    81
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    Mute Billy McNamara
    Favourite Billy McNamara
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:28 PM

    @Tweety McTweeter: With many of “The Learned Ones” decisions I as a pleb often wonder are they as learned as we are led to believe.

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    Mute Pat O'Connor
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:38 PM

    @⚡ Seánie ⚡: Nah, it’ll be grand. That’s just the journals normal bullshit excuse.

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    Mute Father Hody Commody
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:44 PM

    @Tweety McTweeter: The last AG wasn’t too good.

    10
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    Mute John Considine
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:57 PM

    @⚡ Seánie ⚡: where would you propose to appeal a Supreme Court ruling?

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    Mute Ian Oh
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 8:16 PM

    @John Considine: European Court of Justice.

    12
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    Mute John003
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:06 PM

    They are just doing the Supreme Court..Are there any plans to do lower courts….Most public interest would be in how lenient the lower courts are…

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    Mute Rob Poonmeister
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:04 PM

    Oh very interesting. Seems like it’d be a great way to make TV on the cheap and get high ratings. Good move Rte.

    39
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    Mute Arnold Lane
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:58 PM

    Add a premium phone line for the public to vote on and they’ll be in business. Why stop there though, we could kit out every prison in Ireland with cameras and have a Big Brother style pay per view for each regional prison.

    – “Were you watching The Joy last night?”

    - “Nah stopped watching that weeks ago. Now the Midlands, much better viewing.”

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    Mute Patrick J. O'Rourke
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 8:16 PM

    If I want to watch pond life at work I stare at my fishtank. What’s the difference between a goldfish and a Barrister? We don’t know if goldfish’s morals have a price tag.

    14
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    Mute Frank Dubogovik
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:36 PM

    My thought exactly…….paint drying would be more watchable

    13
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    Mute lavbeer
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:27 PM

    If they can time it so only the verdicts are read out it might have something. From my experience of jury service it w be an insufferable bore

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    Mute Gorugeen
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 11:12 PM

    @lavbeer: Supreme Court doesn’t have a jury.

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    Mute Kieran Conroy
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:00 PM

    Justice not only has to be done,it has to be seen to be done.

    9
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    Mute bopter
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:04 PM

    @Kieran Conroy: It should be enough for the public to be allowed into the gallery rather than broadcasting on live tv. Mistakes happen and lives are ruined by press intrusion.

    45
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    Mute Kieran Conroy
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:11 PM

    @bopter: Yea.I accept that.Problem is we just can’t help copying America.

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    Mute Ian Oh
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 8:18 PM

    @Kieran Conroy: No, No. Justice (as in fair and equal judgments) never really has to be done. It just has to be seen to be done. Same as it ever was…..

    8
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    Mute Richard Mccarthy
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 9:29 PM

    @Kieran Conroy: I wish we had a no nonsence ever popular Judge Judy in this country who dont take no s#ite from anyone,if tv ratings are anything to go by her courtroom broadcasts are one of the most watched in this country, in her small claims court there is no hiding place and an ideal way to expose those spoofers and chancers that infest this country.

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    Mute Joseph Rooney
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 6:59 PM

    Knowing the stupidity of Irish judges, will it be listed under comedy or farce?

    35
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    Mute Larry Doyle
    Favourite Larry Doyle
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 7:04 PM

    @Joseph Rooney: “You can hit it with your gavel but you can’t make it stand up in court” Monty Python’s Flying Circus.

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    Mute Gareth Cooney
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 11:19 PM

    Judge Judy show in the way Irish style

    5
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    Mute Leroy
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 10:32 PM

    About time…Family courts next please

    4
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    Mute Kieran W
    Favourite Kieran W
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    Oct 23rd 2017, 8:46 PM

    Will you close the comments for this too?

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