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Sam Boal via RollingNews.ie

If current restrictions have no effect, there will be 400 people with Covid-19 in hospital by Halloween

A number of stark figures were given at tonight’s Department of Health briefing.

IF NEW RESTRICTIONS coming into force from tonight have no effect on the spread of the coronavirus, it’s forecast that there will be between 1,800-2,200 Covid-19 cases a day, and over 400 people with Covid-19 in hospital by Halloween. 

Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, gave the stark figures at a briefing at the Department of Health this evening. 

He said that hospitalisations are “increasing exponentially, in fact, increasing exponentially faster than we projected 14 days ago”.

These figures come after the government that new restrictions would come into force from tonight that would advise against visits to households except for essential reasons.

Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan will be placed under Level 4 restrictions. These restrictions are to last for four weeks, until Tuesday 10 November.

Speaking at the briefing tonight, Nolan said that the R number this week is estimated to be around 1.4 nationally up from 1.2 last week – but in Dublin it’s closer to 1, while in the rest of the country it’s around 1.6, and possibly as high as 1.8.

“What happens over the next couple of weeks very much depends on the reproduction number,” Nolan said.

Advice from Holohan and Glynn

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan and Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn said that these reproduction numbers are evidence that people are still changing their behaviours to limit the spread of the virus; at the start of the pandemic the R number was estimated to be at 4 or 5.

Dr Glynn showed graphs that indicated that there hadn’t been a decrease in the movement of people, their use of public transport, the number of people travelling into work or the number of people using ATMs in the past few days and weeks. 

007 Health briefing Sam Boal; RollingNews.ie Sam Boal; RollingNews.ie

He emphasised the particular problem of people who are still not working from home where they can, and also added: “It’s simply not acceptable this winter to be going into work with cold and flu symptoms.”

He says these are the type of stories that they are hearing over and over again.

Holohan said: “Ultimately, it’s our individual behaviours – in our houses, in our social settings, at work, our adherence to all of the public health advice – that determines whether any given Level is successful.”

Whatever people have been doing… we’re urging people to act – now’s the time for people to act, to take their individual responsibility
Cut out, as much as people can, non-essential social contact… Socialising, visiting other people’s houses, going for play dates or facilitating all of those kinds of activities – now is not the time for them.

He said that the scale of the infection in the population is at a level where there is such widespread community transmission that contact tracing was no longer a priority:

The reality is, we simply don’t know who all the cases or the contacts are to map those things reliably. At the point of infection that we have at the moment, it can no longer be regarded as an objective. 

The bad news – and a bit of hope at the end

004 Health briefing Sam Boal; RollingNews.ie Sam Boal; RollingNews.ie

The 14-day incidence nationally is 206.7 per 100,000 per population, and the positivity rate over the past 7 days is at 6.2%.

As of 2pm today, 241 Covid-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 29 are in ICU. There have been 24 additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours.

He said that although the epidemic is not growing as fast in Dublin as it is in the rest of the country, it is growing.

In Dublin the five-day rolling average on 1 October was 182 cases per day, on 8 October it dropped to 131 cases per day, but as of today, it is up to 242 cases per day.

There was a record number of 1,205 Covid-19 cases notified today, with three deaths confirmed. It should be noted that we are conducting far more Covid-19 test per day than we had been during the first Covid-19 wave in March and April. 

As of now, Cabinet is not expected to meet tomorrow, and no major new announcements are expected. 

Nolan noted that he was concerned about the “tone” of tonight’s briefing, which he said was one of “seriousness and concern” but not one of “hopelessness or despair”.

“If… we stand back collectively and distance, stop spreading the disease over two weeks, those 10,000 people [who would contract Covid-19 in the next few weeks if nothing changes] – most of them will recover. And they’re not spreading the disease.

“On the one hand… if we’re growing, it is really really dangerous, but if we’re here and we start to shrink, we can get on top of this quicker than we think.

So the message here has to be about: more of those basic things could turn this around quicker than we might think.

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124 Comments
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    Mute Brian Clancy
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:06 PM

    It’s none of your business who calls to my house, try tackling the root of the problem

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    Mute PC
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:11 PM

    @Brian Clancy: Casedemic https://youtu.be/FU3OibcindQ

    51
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    Mute Cecil Orr
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:13 PM

    @Brian Clancy: The leader of the selfish group. The “I’m all right Jack” syndrome.

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    Mute PC
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:13 PM

    @PC: Test, test, test. Case, case, case. Scare, scare, scare. The death rate has flatlined and the government insist on shutting down the country for a asymptomatic cases in the under 45s. This is bull.

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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:20 PM

    @PC: if cases go up then inevitably deaths will follow. You can’t die from it unless you’ve been a case. Eventually it will get to vulnerable and or elderly people and some will die. Case rates are a good indication of reproductive rates and forthcoming deaths.

    52
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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:32 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella: In a nursing home in wexford again, it has already gotten to older more vulnerable people

    29
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    Mute Tom Harpur Photography
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:39 PM

    @Brian Clancy: root of the problem been the selling off alcohol in pubs restaurants and off licence and supermarkets

    27
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    Mute Martin Woods
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:08 PM

    @Tom Harpur Photography: why Tom are they drinking it in the meat factories ?

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    Mute The only INFP in Ireland
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:19 PM

    @Martin Woods: House parties..

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    Mute seamus toomey
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:26 PM

    @Cecil Orr: explain how it’s ok for weddings with 50 guests to still go ahead then

    32
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    Mute seamus toomey
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:27 PM

    @Tom Harpur Photography: I thought the root of the problem was the meat factories and poor conditions

    24
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    Mute CarlAnne Greene
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:35 PM

    Can’t have more than 6 in my house but can eat out alongside 50 strangers in pub/restaurant. Can’t watch a game but can play it, can send kids to school but try stay home from work, put kids on a school bus ( from ty -6thyr are 16-19yrs old) but not public transport etc…it all doesn’t make a lot of sense

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    Mute Dave Hammond
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:43 PM

    @CarlAnne Greene: theres a lot of mixed messaging for sure – they have lost control of the messaging and lost the support of a lot of decent people who from the very. outset abided by. strict rules but have had to watch as the. ‘authorities’ failed to get to grip with travellers. from Italy etc – failed to quaratine nursing homes. effectively , failed to get to grip with meat factory outbreaks , failed to tackle the direct provision centre. problem but are now all in. knots about pubs / schools / house parties and trying to implement pretty ineffective measures if the 3 county checkpoints are anything to go by – beyond farcical – govt need to grab bull by. horns and start asking why 6 months in we are still too slow on testing tracking and tracing effectively – and why in the name of jaysus are we still only talking about random testing in airports from NEXT WEEK – complete horseshit

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    Mute seamus toomey
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:29 PM

    @Dave Hammond: they won’t ask those very valid questions because if they did someone would be held accountable

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    Mute Pat Quinn
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:35 PM

    So I can go to a wedding indoors with 50 people but I can’t have a bbq in the garden with 6 ??

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    Mute Marie Broomfield
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:46 PM

    @Pat Quinn: you can

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    Mute Green Lentils
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:20 PM

    @Marie Broomfield: haha

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    Mute Badger the witness
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:24 PM

    No more than 6 people in your garden, no more than 15 for outdoor gatherings.. Not sure on the maths there.

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    Mute seamus toomey
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:30 PM

    @Badger the witness: getting married

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    Mute Newto2016
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:56 PM

    Please. If I want to have my family over for Sunday dinner, I will.

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    Mute Green Lentils
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:01 PM

    @Newto2016: I’m delighted I don’t have to ask mine over!!

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Aug 19th 2020, 9:01 AM

    @Newto2016: just redo your marriage vows

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    Mute Chris Mc
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    Aug 19th 2020, 9:03 AM

    @Newto2016: just redo your marriage vows and you can invite your friends over too.

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    Mute Vladimir Macro
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:02 PM

    So you can enter a shopping centre with hundreds of people once you are wearing a mask but you cant enter a garden of any size with more than 6 people, whilst wearing a mask.

    This is not science, it’s worse, there is no logic to this

    Do they just not want us to meet up to speak about what’s going on???

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    Mute Green Lentils
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:22 PM

    @Vladimir Macro: yes that’s it. They’re outside your house with the chip they’ll be stapling into your skull in about 10….9….8…

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    Mute Logan Shepherd
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:10 PM

    Bringing in unenforceable restrictions, with the strict message of “please don’t do that” is not what is needed right now. County lockdowns are a bit nonsensical as well when you look at a map. Why not go with a radial lockdown from the epicenter of the cluster?

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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:21 PM

    @Logan Shepherd: get a lot of compasses out and draw invisible circles around cluster sites? You’re joking right.

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    Mute Logan Shepherd
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:24 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella: It makes more sense than locking down entire counties. It’s the same principle as the radius of freedom we were granted during the main lockdown.

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    Mute Paul
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:16 PM

    Does that go for exploited workers in Irish meat plants or the overcrowded conditions they are forced to live in.

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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:22 PM

    @Paul: new measures have been brought in to control that. Too late for the current outbreak but should work going forward.

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    Mute Paul
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:08 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella: I don’t believe you, show me the proof, also too little too late for the people of Kildare, Laois and Offaly who had to restrict their movements for 2 weeks because of these meat plants owners bringing in sick workers with out any sick pay with Covid, exploiting them by putting them in cramped conditions to live now a lot of people are suffering mentally because of this, oh yeh you have 0 followers and your following 0 people you’re most likely a bot.

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    Mute seamus toomey
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:30 PM

    @GrumpyAulFella:

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    Mute Sinead Merrigan
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:43 PM

    @Paul: there is absolutely no proof that factories have purpously brought sick people into work but will agree that work conditions have significantly contributed.

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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:53 PM

    @Paul: you’ve 30 followers. Well done. Do you need 30 to be a human and not a bot? I’ve heard it all now.

    4
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    Mute ianglen
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:38 PM

    My 89 year old uncle tasted his first pulled pint in nearly 6 months last week, poor man cried.
    Now looks like he will be cocooning again. Cruel..

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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:53 PM

    @ianglen: shouldn’t be a problem. I’ve been bringing the aul man down to his local once every two weeks. We get a bit of grub and 4 pints, watch a bit of ball, no problem. Pub layout is great and people are kept apart. It’s ultimately people’s own decision as to what harm they want to expose themselves to. Older people will complain if they are advised to stay in and then complain if they go out and catch it in a pub. Ultimately the individual decides. If the aul man wants a pint then I’ll bring him for one and we’ll mind ourselves.

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    Mute Eamo
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:56 PM

    @ianglen: was it flat?

    17
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    Mute Oracle Steve
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:36 PM

    They can all phukk right off. They’ve lost me with their asinine decisions. The 2KM rule was $tup|d enough but allowing indoor weddings but nobody in an 80,000 person stadium.

    You are the weakest link and I’m ignoring everything you ask. You’ve lost my respect

    82
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    Mute Mick Costello
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:24 PM

    Joke these are pushing for a reaction and I’d say they are getting close

    50
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    Mute Bennett blaster
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:18 PM

    Mass is ok though, no enforcement of masks in public places. Pain in me ding dong with their nonsense

    72
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    Mute Aunties
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    Aug 18th 2020, 10:52 PM

    Fred n Rosemary West had 6 in their garden

    32
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    Mute Marie Louise Ryan
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    Aug 18th 2020, 11:37 PM

    @Aunties: omg hahaha

    8
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    Mute Marie Broomfield
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:44 PM

    Some people are purposeless confused! How much clearer does it have to be, no more than 6 people from outside the home and from no more than 3 household! What’s confusing?

    36
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    Mute GrumpyAulFella
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:55 PM

    @Marie Broomfield: they need to be nanny’d.

    23
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    Mute Logan Shepherd
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:57 PM

    @Marie Broomfield: You’re post ..

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    Mute Logan Shepherd
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:05 PM

    @Logan Shepherd: *Your. Smartarsery withdrawn ..

    11
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    Mute Monster Munch
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:20 PM

    The Guards will be busy

    29
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    Mute De Rossi
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    Aug 18th 2020, 11:53 PM

    @Monster Munch: will they? Genuine question… Is it advisory or law?

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    Mute Joan Featherstone
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    Aug 19th 2020, 6:53 AM

    @De Rossi: I think advisory at the moment but the attorney general is getting involved so that will most likely change!

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    Mute De Rossi
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    Aug 19th 2020, 9:20 AM

    @Joan Featherstone: Thanks Joan. I dont know if the buy in from the public will be there if this is only advisory.

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    Mute Real Online Career
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    Aug 18th 2020, 9:48 PM

    Bring back Phrase one, I would rather be isolated from the people crying that they can’t go to pub.

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    Mute Joan Featherstone
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    Aug 19th 2020, 6:54 AM

    @Real Online Career: nothing to stop you isolating yourself?

    9
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    Mute Robert Clifford
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    Aug 18th 2020, 8:24 PM

    Complete spoofer.

    32
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    Mute Isabel Oliveira
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    Aug 19th 2020, 12:02 AM

    Get lost

    7
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    Mute Pádraig Ó Pravda
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    Aug 19th 2020, 7:15 AM

    NPHET – Nazi Party Hacks Exercising Tyranny

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    Mute John Mulligan
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    Aug 19th 2020, 10:13 AM

    Unless you’re getting married, or having a mass.

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