Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
DUE TO THE way the United States of America votes in presidential elections, the result usually hinges on just a small number of the 50 states across the country.
That’s down two things: the electoral college system and the usual voting demographics in the US.
To put it simply, the electoral college is the system which allocates a candidate votes based on who wins what State. It means that – in most States – whoever wins the most votes in that State gets all the electoral college votes from the State.
Take California. It has 55 “electors” in its electoral college. So even if, say Joe Biden, was to win that state by a solitary vote, he’d get all 55 electoral college votes.
There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs so, to win the election, you need to hit the magic number of 270 in the electoral college.
Let’s go back to California again. Joe Biden will win those 55 electoral college votes. It’s almost inconceivable that he won’t win this state, which has been a safe Democrat state since 1992. Hillary Clinton got almost double the votes that Trump did in California in 2016.
There are states like this across the US that are almost certain to go for Biden or for Trump, based on historical precedent and the opinion polls. But there are also states that frequently switch from Republican to Democrat and vice versa between elections.
And so – like elections gone by – it’ll be those vital swing states where the election will be decided.
Here’s a look at a few of the key ones, how the race there is looking and what to look out for on election night.
Florida
Florida has 29 electoral college votes. In the past, such as the tight 2000 race between George W Bush and Al Gore, it has been the state where the election has been decided.
Winning Florida can be absolutely crucial. In two of the last three elections the Democrats have lost, winning this state would have turned the tide.
Trump won Florida in 2016 and has been visiting the state frequently on the campaign trail. He also refers to it as his “home state” because of his Mar-a-Lago property he frequently visits.
Republicans are mounting a fierce defence here, with Democrats accusing them of suppressing the vote, particularly in communities of colour.
The state’s huge Latino population will be key, and polls show them aligned with the Democratic ticket less than in 2016.
At the same time, polls also show seniors swinging away from Trump because of his handling of the pandemic.
Most experts say Florida is a Trump firewall; if it’s breached, Trump likely loses the White House.
This state is usually quite prompt at delivering its results so this will be one to watch early on election night, with early voting so far signalling an advantage for Biden.
The polls currently have Biden ahead (just) in this state for now on 49.0% compared to Trump’s 47.0%*. It’s still clearly all to play for here.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has 20 electoral college votes.
Like in Florida, Trump has been making numerous appearances in Pennsylvania as he tries to secure support again in a crucial state that he won in 2016.
Here, there is a large rural-urban divide in terms of the voting, with those in the cities much more likely to vote Biden than Trump.
Biden is counting on these voters in the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to get over the line here.
However, Trump’s campaign has mobilised and are all over the state including city suburbs where they’re canvassing door-to-door. He’s hoping that the poll numbers aren’t including the so-called “hidden voters” that don’t want to admit to supporting him.
Huge numbers of people have voted early in Pennsylvania, leading to fears there could be delays in counting the ballots in the state on election night.
A legal battle over the deadline for mail in ballots has made things murkier in the Keystone State, and the mail in ballots more favoured by Biden supporters could mean that early results from the state don’t give us the full picture.
Nevertheless, it’s likely that whoever takes this key state will win the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
The latest polls have Biden in the lead here, on 50.3% compared with Trump’s 45.0%.
Michigan
Michigan has 16 electoral college votes.
It narrowly tipped for Trump in 2016 and is being fiercely contested this year.
Trump has visited the Great Lakes state to argue he is ushering in an American comeback, but voters are concerned about the coronavirus’ impact on the economy and the president’s response to the pandemic.
Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has clashed repeatedly with the president and the lockdowns in the state have angered conservatives.
Gun-toting protestors staged demonstrations outside the state capital this summer and members of a right-wing group were arrested recently for plotting to kidnap the governor.
Trump has continued to stoke opposition against the Democrats in Michigan and, despite his successful appeals to blue-collar workers in a state where manufacturing has declined in 2016, he faces an uphill battle this time around.
This is one you could categorise as a must-win for Biden, and is one of the so-called Blue Wall which also includes Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that he needs to try win back.
The latest polls give Biden an almost eight-point lead in Michigan, on 50.7% to Trump’s 42.6%.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has 10 electoral college votes.
To her cost, Hillary Clinton never campaigned in Wisconsin in 2016. And the voters punished her for it. The previously safe Democrat state turned to Trump that time, although by a very small margin.
This year, the Democrats had their national convention – although moved online due to the pandemic – in Wisconsin.
The city of Kenosha in the state has also been one of the lightning rods for unrest in recent times after police shot black man Jacob Blake in August.
Biden currently has a lead here too according to opinion polls, on around 51.7% compared to Trump’s 43.2%.
Iowa
Iowa has just six electoral college votes, and is another swing state that appears too close to call.
Trump won here easily four years ago but it’s looking a lot closer this time.
He held a a campaign rally in Iowa earlier this month, a sign he is playing defence in a state he had been expected to win.
Going by the polling this defensive strategy may yet be enough, with Trump still in with a chance to narrowly win out over Biden here.
The current opinion polls have Trump on 46.1% to Biden’s 47.6%.
Ohio
Ohio has 18 electoral college votes.
It frequently switches between the Republicans and Democrats when choosing a president (often picking the eventual winner), and this year it is expected to be close here.
No one has won Ohio but lost the overall election since Richard Nixon in 1960. In the past 60 years, if you win Ohio, you win the White House. A win for Biden here would be a key victory in the race.
Currently polling has Trump just under two points ahead of Biden, on 48.1% to 46.3%.
North Carolina
North Carolina has 15 electoral college votes.
This traditionally conservative state went to Trump by three points four years ago but both parties acknowledge it is now too close to call.
North Carolina’s governor Roy Cooper is a popular Democrat who has won praise for his balanced response to the pandemic.
Republicans based their national convention here, although it ended up being largely online.
This state is seen as an absolutely must-hold for Trump if he is to win the election but the opinion polls suggest he may be in trouble here.
Biden is currently on 49.1% compared to Trump’s 46.9%.
Arizona
Arizona has 11 electoral college votes.
It has been a Republican stronghold for decades, but its electorate is changing, with a growing Latino community and an influx of more liberal Californians.
Conservative voters appreciate Trump’s efforts to restrict immigration and build a wall on the border with Mexico.
But Trump has hurt his prospects by repeatedly denigrating the late senator John McCain, who represented Arizona and still looms large over its politics. McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain, has endorsed Biden.
The polls have an almost four-point lead for Biden at this stage, and losing this state would do serious harm to Trump’s hopes this year.
Biden stands at 48.9% and Trump is on 45.4%.
Georgia
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and is another state with a rural-urban divide when it comes to voting.
A Democrat has not won a presidential race in Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992 but it has been trending Democratic in recent years.
Trump has held rallies here in recent weeks, an indication he may be on shaky ground there. It’s one he really can’t afford to lose.
Again, the latest polls has Biden in the lead here – just – 48.2% to 46.8%. It’ll be all to play for when the votes come to be counted.
What else to look for
Despite Democrat hopes, the opinion polls say that Biden will not win Texas – which has voted Republican in every election since 1980.
It would be have to be a serious defeat for Trump nationally for Texas to flip and, with 38 electoral college votes, would almost guarantee he can’t retain the White House.
An early result from Florida should give an indication of which way the election has gone. If Biden wins, it could mean he’s on his way to a comfortable victory. If Trump wins Florida, however, it could mean we’ve a very tight race which potentially could be contested.
However, after a recent Supreme Court decision allowing longer deadlines for absentee ballots in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, it could mean that we don’t have definitive results from some of the most important battlegrounds for a number of days after the election.
Both candidates will continue to journey around these crucial states in the coming days hoping to secure some last-minute votes.
*all polling data was obtained from FiveThirtyEight.com
Planning on staying up late on Tuesday to watch the results roll in? TheJournal.ie will be liveblogging through the night to bring you all the developments as they happen. Our team of reporters and columnists will be breaking down what the results mean (and what happens next) from well before dawn on Wednesday morning.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Great research and great article! It always amazes me that Ireland’s revolution was started by very left wing elements, but within ten years had been hijacked by right-wing, monied conservatives. The church, I suspect, had much to do with that.
The Irish were paying back loans advanced by Great Britain to pay for Irish land at this time , yes we had to pay for our own Irish land …by comparison today’s austerity was caused by over the top borrowing
At this stage too the Proclamation had been cast aside as the opportunistic politicians seized the day , implemented vast pensions for themselves as the peasants starved and sometimes double and treble pensions for ministries which they exchanged frequently . Today’s FF /FG and Labour are their descendants in every way
Brian that’s a great comment. So many revolutions down the years have been hijacked, for the worse.
Hi Brian,
I don’t think it is accurate to say that Ireland’s revolution (if it was that, is replacing one set of elites with another really a revolution?) was started by left-wing elements and was hijacked by right-wingers years later. There were right and left wing elements from the beginning, I would suggest there were more right-wing elements than left at the beginning.
One only needs to look at one of those involved, Kevin O’Higgins who once said famously that he was part of a generation of ‘the most conservative-minded revolutionaries that ever put through a successful revolution’.
Even the left elements such as Connolly were very religiously-minded. Connolly wrote about how socialism and Catholicism were not mutually exclusive, and it was possible to be both. So what is to say that if the left-wing socialist element shined through, that it wouldn’t have stepped aside to a certain degree for the Catholic Church to take over?
The left-wing element is overplayed, partly I believe to do with the way Connolly was killed. He was an intellectual among poets and romantics. In fact they were such a disparate group in 1916, that if they had succeeded that ideological splits would have been inevitable. I have heard arguments that one faction would have had no problem overthrowing the other if it came to that. I believe that.
I think that the Catholic Church was so embedded in Irish society right back to Cardinal Cullen’s ‘Devotional Revolution’ in the aftermath of the Famine that no matter what element (left or right) had won control, they would have had to had some sort of coalition with the Catholic Church and it’s elite-minded ideology. I am not for one minute suggesting that was right and proper, it is just how Irish society was.
There’s a very interesting and authorities documentary on YouTube about the rise of Soviets in all Ireland in the days between the Rising and the height of the War of Independence. It shows how the social agenda was the dominant one across the country and soviets were taking over the means of production all over the island. It shows how they were run by ordinary women and men, Catholic, Protestant and dissenter. It also shows how they were betrayed by right wing nationalists and the trades union leadership and brutally suppressed. The nation agenda then became the dominant one resulting in the state we have today in Ireland.
Interesting how the same players are in power today, a century later, and still playing out the same desperate agenda.
This is why I’ll never vote for a political party again. No matter how many votes a party wins at an election, the majority always loses. Political parties owe allegiance to their own ideology and financial backers. In our adversarial political system, winning at all costs is essential and honesty, truth, fairness, decency and service take a very distant back seat.
I still believe in our system. We have 2 legislative houses, an independent legal system, a functioning civil service, a free responsible press and a written constitution.
Imagine what this wee state of ours would be like if there were no political parties and all TDs were independent and voted in accordance with their consciences and the will of the electorate and not the oligarchs who now rule, and ruin, Ireland.
Same old story then: a government obsessed with international standing decides on policies which have nothing to do with looking after its citizens.
Just goes to show that little(if anything) has changed!
‘Douglas added his opinion that “the present propaganda in the United States, alleging that there is a famine, will do great harm to our credit in every way unless it is countered”.’
That government may have been obsessed with international standing but for a pretty good reason – it needed credit to build up a country destroyed and divided after the Civil War and War of Independence.
And that’s a good reason to let citizens starve?
Reminds me of what is happening today… there would be people straving today in Ireland only for penny dinners and soup kitchens around the country and the kind generosity of the ordinary people of our country….
Sounds like nothing new then. Another Government cover up. Why am I not surprised
Seems that the business of Government in Ireland started life as an exercise in deceit, a system of rewarding those with land and position while punishing the poor and all the time pretending to care about all the people. Seems Labour then were the same as Labour now, subservient to the FG masters. We know to our cost that the deceitful practises of the major parties continue to this day but they haven’t much time left now.
@gerry as I understand it labour were in opposition during that period.
You are correct Bruce but let’s not have the facts get in the way of a good slander!
” Hogan was not the only one to ignore the suffering and starvation of the population. No one in the Dáil challenged the minister’s assertions – not even the leader of the opposition Labour Party, Thomas Johnson”
If Bruce and John R had actually read the article they would have noticed that. So it’s far from being a slander in this case.
Well you stated “subservient to FG masters”.
All I was pointing out was labour weren’t in govt so couldn’t be subservient.
From PJ hogan 100 years ago to Phil hogan now. Nothing has changed with regards to the calibre of politicians in this country
Was thinking the very same Niall.He came across with the same arrogance as present day Hogan.They bring in a blanket tax during a fuel shortage too.Shameful.
What would be next down the line?.A shoe tax.No way,would they be that stupid???
Same attitude as with them today.Do as your told and keep your mouth shut folks.
Nothing to see here,move along……..
Great article Fin. This was only one many cover ups unfortunately. Another been the economic war which ruined agriculture in Ireland. Calves were sold for their skin back them as exporting was prohibited. Well covered up by Dev obsessed historians like Diarmuid Ferriter.
And, as the past week has shown, plenty of modern day cover ups as well. This time using kangaroo courts.
Ferriter has written in the past about the effects of the economic war. Definitely no cover up there. He actually wrote a piece for gov.ie which talks about the effects. I’m not sure where you are getting that particular argument from.
interesting article. I know a bit on Irish history – but never knew about this.
Ireland was a newly independent nation. Its seems as if our leaders were very conscious of our image abroad. They wanted us to be seen as a successful prosperous nation, that could ‘stand on its own two feet’.
To admit to this famine would be to admit to failure. That’s possibly the reason for the cover up.
More research needs to be done on this important story.
Well done to the historians for their work, so far, on this.
And we had people recently trying to eulogize that bowsie WT cosgrave.
The real shame of the civil war was that Ireland lost so many of the progressive left wing figures who were anti treaty and we wound up with dyed in the wool tories running the country
Plus ca change.
Makes today’s austerity look like a walk in the park by comparison
If it were not for Facebook and YouTube the same politicians would be today ramming water taxes down the throats of the poor.!
Thanks for posting this article – was something I never knew about – puts the recent crisis into perspective
Great article. Well done on the research and the balanced way in which you reported the history.
At last a good article on Journal.ie, I was beginning to lose faith. Let’s hope this continues. A great read.
And remember it was the Garth Brooks debacle that was the national shame!!
The more things change the more they stay the same….
Once again historic scandals and inconvenient truths uncovered, I do enjoy the current hypocritical rant against SF,- the old Irish solution to an Irish problem of denial and deflection of any unpleasant problem that raises its ugly head. Its part of the Irish political and social psyche, if SF had handled the current situation in any other way they would not be Irish.
So your point Charles is that SF are like every one else? Good to know. That must make those who elect our politicians absolute hypocrites.
Please remember those that vote to elect the banks, lest we forget those that actually claim to run this nation!!
Bank of Ireland ‘own’ my property? Yet they have never canvassed my door, who is the puppets here?!
@sean what?
Thankful i live an an ireland full of taco chips and subway!
Fantastic article, well done.
The government was found wanting badly on this occasion but I believe we owe a debt of gratitude to WT Cosgrave who helped save this country from anarchy. It was touch and go at the start, but his decision to hand power over peacefully to Dev was a selfless act. Credit due too to FF for laying down their weapons.
A fascinating period of Irish history.
It was a selfless act to hand over power following an election which CNaG lost?
If you look at what was happening elsewhere what happened here was strikingly peaceful and progressive decolonisation.
Millions died in the 1840s famine, hundreds of emigrated after the economic collapse of the 1880s. How many died in the famine of the 1920s.
An Taoiseach Indah Kenny – I won’t have Ireland branded with the word defaulter……
And some people believe that country should have declared war against Nazi Germany 14 years later.
GrateArticle
I wonder how many TD’s in the present Dail are directly descended from those sitting around the table in 1925.
A government party later to become Fine Gael cut the old age pension by 10% back then a decision that was to haunt them for years to come, fast forward to today and Aer Lingus Aer Rianta and SRT pensioners are about to have their pensions slashed by 40% and a Fine Gael/Labour government have said they will sign in the necessary legalisation to facilitate this
Well let the existing staff pony to cover the loss
Would we not have prospered if we stayed part of the U.k?
It seems that we can’t really look after ourselves properly.
I live on Gorumna Island third pic down
Thank you for this very informative article. Is it any wonder then Labour have no conscience about the hardship ordinary people are suffering in this recession? May people are “starving” and literally too. They have to sacrifice food for bills. Its sad to read how so many poor had to suffer and die. How was this government so cruel and blind to their plight. Seriously the English would have been more charitable. Very good article.
PJ Hogan. 100Years,Reincarnated 2013PhilHogan.Funny old world.
Great article, not just for historic view..But the I hate Ireland brigade is out loving the the self loathing…look at cb2010….another example…good play journal good play keep spreading the depression!
Any girls wanna comment
have your say