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A voter filling out his ballot last week for the 2020 United States presidential election. SIPA USA/PA Images

The challenges facing US media outlets this year in projecting the next elected president

Media outlets play a significant role in analysing election data and projecting a winner.

EVERY FOUR YEARS when a US presidential election is held, it is traditional for media outlets to call a projected winner on election night as results stream in from across the country. 

However, with the uniquely unusual circumstances of the 2020 election, there are a few challenges standing in the way of this practice. 

So-called decisions desks are set up by US media outlets to analyse data and project winners of each state, which will then determine the winner of the presidential race.

These desks are currently gearing up for a complicated election night amid uncertain timing for counting of mail-in and absentee ballots, along with fears about premature claims of victory.

In a campaign disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, the commonly used methods of exit polls are less useful than in the past, says Costas Panagopoulos, chair of political science at Northeastern University and a member of the NBC News decision desk team.

“With the rise in early voting, absentee and mail-in voting, it’s no longer the case that we can survey voters at the polling places and make accurate predictions,” Panagopoulos said.

This is how election and referendum polls are conducted in Ireland, with a poll from RTÉ/the Irish Times/TG4/UCD/Ipsos MRBI serving as the main one reported in the general election held earlier this year.

Some fear an early tally based on votes cast in person on election day may distort the outcome and prompt President Donald Trump to claim victory before absentee and mailed ballots are counted. 

This is because several polls have shown that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to vote early because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Republicans are more likely to turn up to vote on the day. 

“It’s entirely possible there will be discrepancies across networks because each network has its own standards for how they reach projection decisions even though they are all using virtually the same data,” Panagopoulos said.

The forecasting process for media otlets

Associated Press is often seen as the gold standard for announcing the outcome of the election, due to its large-scale and forensic operation. 

The news wire service has more than 4,000 staffers working around the country to feed back results from local count centres, and has said that it will not call the results of any race until there is no clear path for the losing candidates to declare victory. 

Large media networks including CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS work with the National Election Pool to share results for exit polling data. 

Fox News has a separate polling arrangement. 

ABC News published a piece last Friday saying there may be delayed state results due to mail-in ballots processed in swing states.

The key swing states in this year’s election are Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

The ABC piece states that every ballot may need to be counted in these key states “before anyone can responsibly make a projection on who won the state”. 

CNN outlined in a recent article how it makes election projections. 

It described the process as “careful and complicated”, combining real-time ballot results with information from exit polls.

The piece reported that CNN’s Washington Bureau Chief Sam Feist said that although it will take some time longer to count mail-in ballots in certain states, there is a “good possibility” of having a projected winner by Wednesday or Thursday. 

In terms of deciding a projected winner too soon in each state, Feist said: “When there’s enough votes in a particular state to give the decision team the confidence that that person is going to win, then they can announce a projection.

“So, you will not see a race this year, nor should you, and that’s a good thing for the public.” 

CBS News said its decision desk will combine exit poll data and vote tallies with the network’s proprietary polling and surveys of around 100,000 people around the United States.

On Sunday, US news site Axios reported that Trump has allegedly told some of his confidants that he will declare a victory tonight if it look like he is “ahead”. He denied this allegation later that day. 

Red mirage 

Some analysts have warned of a “red mirage” which would show Trump ahead based on early vote counts, even if the absentee ballots counted later reverse the trend – a result which could prompt an outcry.

“The contest will be won not only at the ballot box and in the courts but in the court of public opinion,” said a Guardian essay by more than 20 members of the American Political Science Association.

“All media should adopt the strict standard that no state winner should be declared until the number of votes remaining to be counted has been certified to be less than the margin between the two major-party candidates.” 

A newly formed National Task Force on Election Crises has called on media organisations and the National Election Pool which gathers data for the outlets to use extra caution for projections.

“This presidential election will be like no other in our history,” said a letter from the task force which includes academics, former elected officials and activists, to media organisations.

The coalition said that as many as 70% of all ballots cast may be by mail or other absentee methods, and that the tallying will depend on different rules for each of the 50 states.

“It could take days or weeks to complete an accurate count of all votes,” the letter said.

“This period of uncertainty will add further pressure to an already strained system and allow bad actors to attempt to undermine our democratic process.”

Uncertainty 

Speaking to TheJournal.ie last week, professor of political science at Duke University John Aldrich said “nobody knows for sure” how the election will play out, but a number of key issues are different than in previous years. 

An increase in mail-in voting largely due to the pandemic, Supreme Court cases and media calling the vote too early could all factor into deciding the winner this time around.  

“Each state handles elections in its own ways and voting in its own ways, and there are 50 different answers to try to address the pandemic and make it easier and safer to vote,” Aldrich said. 

So we don’t know how they’re going to play out because, first they’re brand new procedures and second, they have been done at more or less the last minute and they’re still being changed.

While a handful of media outlets will be making calls, one being closely watched is Fox News, a favorite of Trump and Republicans.

Fox said in a statement that it will be collecting data and making projections without bias.

“The integrity of our decision desk is rock solid,” a Fox statement said.

“We will call this presidential election carefully and accurately, relying on data and numbers.”

Fox decision desk chief Arnon Mishkin told a recent podcast on the network that making calls will be complicated by the new voting patterns but touted a new tool “that is actually optimal for measuring how people are voting in an election where over 60 percent of the people are not going to be exiting poll on election day.”

Despite the fears, a Pew Research Center survey found 82% of US adults have confidence their main news sources will make the right call, with slightly more confidence among Biden supporters.

With reporting by AFP

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    Mute Jimmy Chickens
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    May 15th 2022, 7:49 AM

    Shocking. Guns shouldn’t be so freely available.

    434
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    Mute Nora McElhinney
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    May 15th 2022, 9:25 AM

    @Jimmy Chickens: will they ever learn????? Just gather around the campfire, light a few candles, sing a few verses of kumbya and wait for the next armed lunatic….. so sad RIP

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    Mute Leadóg
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    May 15th 2022, 8:04 AM

    Nothing changed after Sandy Hook. I don’t wish harm on anyone but maybe it’s going to take the death of a top NRA person or an NRA supporting politician in a mass shooting for things to change.

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    Mute Ciaran
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    May 15th 2022, 11:37 AM

    @Leadóg: true but they all carry guns with them so it’s unlikely they themselves would be a victim.

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    Mute JPM
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    May 15th 2022, 2:49 PM

    @Leadóg: exactly. When nothing happened after Sandy Hook it’ll never happen

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    Mute Colm Coughlan
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    May 15th 2022, 7:58 AM

    It’s all okay though, President Biden is praying for the victims and their families.

    155
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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    May 15th 2022, 8:01 AM

    @Colm Coughlan: not just Biden, that’s all any of them did.

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    Mute pkunzip doom2.zip
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    May 15th 2022, 8:29 AM

    @Colm Coughlan: and his wife

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    Mute Michael Byrne
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    May 15th 2022, 9:42 AM

    @Colm Coughlan: Just like Trump did for the countless number of mass shootings that happened whilst he was in office. It’s quite clear the problem lies in the easy access to guns and the fear mongering and hate news that’s spread by OAN and Fox News…..

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    Mute Paul Furey
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    May 15th 2022, 10:39 AM

    @Colm Coughlan: you do realise trump was far worse….even though he has recently repeated he is the best thing ever for Christianty. Biden may be sincere, but trump is always ever only playing his twisted little game.

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    Mute Tricia G ☘️
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    May 15th 2022, 11:38 AM

    @Colm Coughlan: At least when Biden says he’s praying for them you’d actually believe he is…..

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    Mute Dave O'Keeffe
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    May 15th 2022, 2:22 PM

    @David Bohane: fun fact: you’re not a criminal until your convicted so the number of criminals who’s bail they paid would actually be a small minority, so that’s two things you’re blowing out of proportion. Also, bail is not a crime.
    The system of policing in the states is diabolical and has over inflated budgets. The idea of defend the police wasn’t that there shouldn’t be police. That’s strike three

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    Mute David
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    May 15th 2022, 2:58 PM

    @David Bohane: if the far left didn’t vote for Biden do you think they would of voted for Trump instead lol

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    Mute Seamus Mac
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    May 15th 2022, 3:06 PM

    @Dave O’Keeffe: strange for the democrats to be bailing people out of jail no? Do the republicans engage in such practices as well?

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    Mute James Lough
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    May 15th 2022, 7:45 AM

    RIP. Senseless waste of life

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    Mute Teresa O'Halloran
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    May 15th 2022, 8:39 AM

    What a còward. Put the gun to his own neck but didn’t pull the trigger, yet he had no problem shooting thirteen innocent people. His parents have questions to answer for bringing this piece of ßhit into the world.

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    Mute lelookcoco
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    May 15th 2022, 8:52 AM

    @Teresa O’Halloran: His parents? Are you actually serious? So this guy is innocent because his parents are to blame? Engage your brain before making a comment.

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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    May 15th 2022, 8:57 AM

    @Teresa O’Halloran: He’s 18, so an adult. This makes him responsible for his own actions and not his parents.

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    Mute Teresa O'Halloran
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    May 15th 2022, 9:09 AM

    @lelookcoco: I didn’t say he was innocent. But he has all the signs of a spoilt brat. We need to find out why these kids are doing this by examining their upbringing and their home life. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Which means his parents are probably white supremacists also.

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    Mute Teresa O'Halloran
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    May 15th 2022, 9:13 AM

    @Jason Ebbs: what about the case of Ethan Crumbley, do you think his parents didn’t know what he was planning?

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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    May 15th 2022, 9:34 AM

    @Teresa O’Halloran: Difference circumstances. He was 15 at the time of his shooting, so a child.

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    Mute Roy Dowling
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    May 15th 2022, 11:42 AM

    @Teresa O’Halloran: Do you know everything your children are doing?

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    Mute Dave
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    May 15th 2022, 11:24 AM

    Horrific stuff, after seeing the footage.. When you can just roll up with an automatic weapon like that without a second thought, there is something seriously wrong with the American society and the obsession with guns…

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    Mute Lynne Colson
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    May 15th 2022, 9:28 AM

    Unfortunately the U.S. constitution would need to be so changed from “The right to bear arms” for any of this to stop or lessen even. Because the American “forefathers” wouldn’t have been able to have the foresight this far in to the future. A U.S. president is unable to simply change the constitution and the gun lobby is large and vocal. Republicans would never allow this change to the constitution.

    Contrary to popular belief there are a lot of people in the U.S. have no interest in guns.

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    Mute Paul Furey
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    May 15th 2022, 10:43 AM

    @Lynne Colson: true! Even if they could change everything just to exclude automatic and assault rifles and all those other mad guns they have over there.

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    Mute Seamus Mac
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    May 15th 2022, 3:08 PM

    @Paul Furey: I think there is an automatic weapons ban but it needs to be strengthened.

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    Mute Bramley Hawthorne
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    May 15th 2022, 8:13 AM

    A gun-totting society is a contradiction.

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    Mute E.J. Murray
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    May 15th 2022, 12:23 PM

    He probably thinks that he’s going to be found innocent like Rittenhouse. The US continues to destroy itself, and all that it’s supposed to stand for.

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    Mute Jonhayes38
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    May 15th 2022, 9:17 AM

    Thoughts & prayers…

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    Mute Seán Ó Briain
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    May 15th 2022, 2:50 PM

    Another MAGA loon.

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    Mute Seamus Mac
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    May 15th 2022, 3:10 PM

    @Seán Ó Briain: no just a loon.

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    Mute Jimmy Reid
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    May 15th 2022, 7:54 AM

    What’s NY policy on the d penalty. You’d want this boyo to go for this. Crazy

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    Mute A$AP Ragnick
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    May 15th 2022, 9:10 AM

    @Jimmy Reid: dont think new york have it. Could be wrong though.

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    Mute Peter Sutton Fitzgibbon
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    May 15th 2022, 11:26 AM

    …and two were white before surrendering… ?

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