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ALTHOUGH IT’S STILL too early to call the winner of the US presidency, pollsters are already being criticised by some for inaccurate predictions.
In 2016, polling companies and poll aggregators like Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight were widely criticised for their predictions of a relatively clear win for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.
FiveThirtyEight predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% chance of winning the election and Trump with a 28.6% chance. As we know now, Clinton won the popular vote but Trump won the Electoral College vote, leading him to the White House.
This time around, the polling site had given Biden an 89% chance of winning and Trump a 10% chance.
A journalist with the Atlantic described this year’s results so far as a “disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption”.
Two Politico journalists wrote: “The polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”
Almost all of the polls in 2016 put Clinton ahead of Trump overall and polls overestimated Democratic support in some important states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
A lot of the states in which polls were off the mark turned out to to be the ones crucial to deciding the next president.
We won’t know the overall winner this year until possibly tomorrow, but as most states have been called already we spoke to Irish pollsters to hear their take on the situation with US polls for this year’s election.
‘Difficult to poll’
Speaking to TheJournal.ie, Richard Colwell, the CEO of Red C research which conducts polls and other research in Ireland, said so far the US polls seem to have been half right and half wrong.
“I think there is a really big difference between what the polls say and what’s extrapolated out of those polls to work out Electoral College votes and seats,” he said.
You can’t judge the polls really until all the counts are done.
“I can understand why people are calling for [criticism of polls] in the current age when everything is so instant. The immediate response is that ‘oh the polls got it wrong’,” he added, referring to initial results showing Trump performing very well at the start.
He said that the way people voted this time around is so different to previous elections which likely made it “much more difficult to poll”.
More than 100 million Americans voted ahead of Election Day, according to the US Elections Project watchdog.
Mail-in ballots, ballots deposited in drop boxes or cast at polling stations ahead of time represent more than 72% of the total number of votes cast in the 2016 presidential election.
In the previous election, around 57 million people voted early. Colwell said Biden’s current lead of almost 3% ahead of Trump in the popular vote is “pretty much within the margin of error” of predictions at the moment.
However, he said from what we know so far, “some of the state polls were pretty bad”.
“Some were promising pretty strong wins for Biden which then Trump went on to win quite comfortably,” Colwell said.
Colwell said some states with very tight margins should have been defined as “too close to call” by pollsters, instead of putting a really close number on it.
He said that, based on his own experience with polling, voter turnout could explain part of the reason for some polling outliers.
Whenever you’re running a poll, you have to estimate what you expect turnout to be, based on historical elections and what people are telling you.
The much higher portion of voters casting their ballots ahead of time and not on the day could play a part in this.
Colwell added that it is “getting much harder to poll” compared to around 20 years ago when “people responded much more”.
It’s a lot harder to poll now, but it can be done. The election here and in the UK has shown that.
He said there will always be people arguing that pollsters are “not putting in the effort” to fix errors, but “the last thing they want to do is not get the poll right”.
“Complicated place to poll’
Damian Loscher, the managing director of polling and research company Ipsos MRBI, said the United States is a “very complicated place to poll”.
Ipsos MRBI conducted a poll on behalf of RTÉ, the Irish Times, TG4 and UCD for the general election result earlier this year.
It was based on responses from more than 5,000 people at 250 polling stations across the country after voting on the day of the election.
Loscher said the way voting is conducted in Ireland allows pollsters to adhere “to what would be considered robust, scientific research principles”.
“You can’t have a proper conversation about polling without getting really dull and scientific – it doesn’t really suit media discussion and debate,” he said.
As many people in the US vote ahead of time, particularly this year, this hinders the polling process as pollsters use other methods like online surveys.
Loscher said these surveys don’t represent every member of the population and “don’t adhere to these scientific principles in the same way”.
“We have been doing it the same way for the past 50 years because the science supports that ideology. They have moved to new methodologies – once you do this, there are new challenges to pollsters.
And those challenges mean that the plus or minus 3% doesn’t really apply anymore.”
He added that “we won’t know how the polls did until all the votes are counted”.
He said the concern for pollsters is not necessarily being a few points out, but whether any polling issues are due to a systemic problems or a random error.
He added that the negative reaction to US polls at the last election “unfortunately means that when they’re a little bit wrong this time, it looks like a pattern”.
In terms of the theory of the ‘shy Trump’ voter who doesn’t admit to voting Trump on the day, Loscher said this same concept sometimes applies in Ireland.
“There certainly was an element of the ‘shy Trump’ voter in the same way as we have in Ireland had, on occasion, shy voters.
Whether it was a shy Sinn Féin voter because of associations with the IRA or a shy Fianna Fáil voter because of economic collapse, we have always felt that shy voters were reasonably immaterial… not to the point where it would materially impact a poll getting it right or wrong.
He said that these shy voters would not hugely impact poll results, “not to the point where if a poll missed it by six or seven points, you might blame a shy Trump vote for a small fraction of this”.
“This time around, we should not interpret just how good the polls are… until the full polls are counted.”
What did polls say in 2016?
In 2016, FiveThirtyEight predicted a 71.4% chance of Hillary Clinton winning the election and a 28.6% chance of a Trump win.
In terms of the divide over popular and Electoral votes, Hillary Clinton was projected to win 301 Electoral College votes, well above Trump’s predicted 235 votes.
As a reminder, the first candidate to reach 270 Electoral votes becomes the new president.
In terms of the popular vote, it was predicted to be 48.5% to Clinton and 44.9% to Trump. This was within the 3% margin of error for the actual result – 48.2% of the vote went to Clinton and 46.1% to Trump.
Here’s a look at some of the key swing states, and what was predicted in 2016 and 2020 against the actual result in 2016 and what we know so far from this year’s vote.
Florida
Clinton was projected to win Florida by less than 1% of the vote in 2016, but Trump won this state by 1.2% more than Clinton in the end.
Biden was favoured ahead in the projections for Florida in this year’s election, with a lead of more than 2% over Trump.
However, Trump has taken the state with over 3% more of the vote than Biden.
Pennsylvania
This state was also won by Trump in 2016 with less than 1% more of the vote than Clinton.
The polls were just off on this one, with projections on Election Day saying Clinton would win by almost 4% ahead of Trump.
Projections for this election put Biden with a lead of almost 5% over Trump.
This is a key state and Trump is currently leading by almost 2% ahead of Biden with 88% of votes reported.
Votes for this state could be in by the end of today in the US, which could be the deciding factor for the winner of the presidency if Biden takes the state as is currently expected.
Nevada
This state was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 with a lead of just over 2% over Trump. The polls got this one right, as it was projected by FiveThirtyEight that Clinton would win the state by less than 2%.
This time around, projections put Biden in the lead with 6% more of the vote.
Biden is currently leading in the state by around 11,400 votes
North Carolina
Trump won North Carolina in 2016 with a winning margin of 3.66%. Projections ahead of time said Clinton would win by less than 1%.
In 2020, projections put Biden with a lead of less than 2% in this state.
It’s still too soon to call, but 94% of votes have been reported so far. Trump is currently in the lead by less than 2%.
Ohio
Trump also took Ohio in 2016 with a significant 8% lead over Hillary Clinton. Polls had predicted he would win the state by 2%.
This year’s projections had Trump in the lead with a very tight margin of just 0.6%.
ABC and other news outlets said at 5am on Wednesday that Trump would take Ohio.
Iowa
Trump took the state of Iowa in 2016 with a lead of almost 10% ahead of Clinton. Polls underestimated this one, with projections showing Trump winning by just under 3%.
In Iowa, 2020 projections show Trump winning the state by 1.5%. The Associated Press has called it and said he will win with a lead of more than 8%.
Wisconsin
Trump took Wisconsin in 2016 with just over 1% of the vote ahead of Clinton.
This narrow win was not forecast in the predictions, with Clinton expected to take the state by more than 5% ahead of Trump.
This year, Biden was projected to take the state with a lead of more than 8%.
The Associated Press has already called this state as a win for Biden, but less than 1% ahead of Trump.
Georgia
Trump won this state by more than 5% in 2016 with polls ahead of time predicting a 4% lead for the Republican.
This year’s projections show Biden with a lead of just less than 1% ahead. The race is very tight in Georgia at the moment as the count continues.
It’s still too close to call with Trump on 49.5% of the vote and Biden on 49.2%.
Arizona
Trump took the state of Arizona in 2016 with almost 4% ahead of Clinton. The projections on Election Day that year said Trump would win by just over 2%.
For the 2020 election, Biden was projected to take the state by over 2.5% more than Trump.
Fox News was the first to project that Joe Biden had won the state of Arizona at approximately 4.30am this Wednesday.
False tweets emerged online saying Fox News retracted this prediction around an hour later.
This was untrue and Fox brought on a member of its decision desk to further solidify this prediction.
Fox has continued to stand by its call of Arizona.
The Associated Press also later called this state as a win for Biden. However, the state still hasn’t been called by the New York Times, CNN or CBC as votes are still being counted.
Trump has disputed the call of Biden winning Arizona.
The Associated Press said it made the decision “after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up”.
With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.
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But…but…but… the news said everyone paid!
So if everyone paid, they still only collected €160million?
And didn’t the ‘water grant’ cost €94 million?
So they actually only collected, and need to refund, €66 million?
How in sweet jaysus was that going to “safe-guard our water network”. I think they were telling porkies!
@Good Early:
How can anyone in this country have respect for Fianna Gael after this embarrassing fiasco? Leonard lying again today in Leinster House after Paul Murphy rightfully demanded an inquiry into the mass perjury by gardai during the “Jobstown” trial. The “thugs” Leonard referred to are himself and his colleagues. They will pay for their corruption at the next general election.
It would be rank hypocrisy for loyal FG and Labour voters to look for a refund. Ye were so vociferous in support of IW, Hogan and Kelly so don’t go looking for it back!
@DaisyChainsaw: But you know they will because that’s the sort of people that support FFG and Liebour.
@DaisyChainsaw:
Totally agree. Some of that money should be used to compensate the victims of the Jobstown stitch-up.
@Frank Cauldhame: that comment has to be a wind up !
@Suzie Sunshine: Oh no it does’nt ! The whole “show” trial was nothing but a pantomime by the establishment to put manners on good citizens who done nothing wrong as was established by the unanimous verdict by a jury of their peers. The victims had to endure 6am dawn raids in front of spouses/children/mothers/fathers/sons/daughters, some lost their jobs, incarceration at garda stations and all were lied about. I’d seek compensation.
Anyone who willingly paid into this corrupt scam and cheer led it on deserves nothing. The half wits should have stood in solidarity with the rest of the population that had the intelligence to see this corrupt, fake billing company for what it was.
@Ronan Sexton: You couldn’t sell your house without paying it. Do you think people should put their lives on hold over a very small charge?
@Ronan Sexton: we were forced to pay in order for the sale of our apartment to go through. There was legislation that wouldnt allow the sale to go through with outstanding property tax and a water bill. So we were forced to pay it. A refund would be lovely. I was forced to pay it
I said “willingly” Words are important.
@Ronan Sexton: So are you going to stand and judge who should get a refund? How much should we spend figuring out who is worthy of a refund?
@Kal Ipers: Which was an absolute lie it turned out. The barrister in the Land Registry said it was a charge on a property that has no basis in Irish Land Law.
It turns out that the Land Reg would never even ask for proof of payment or registration. To put a charge on a property there’s a lengthy process you would have to go through.
So, unless Irish Water were to take someone who was selling their house, to court, claiming they didn’t register, and the judge agreed, THEN a charge could be placed on the property stopping the sale, and this would be registered by Irish Water with the Land Registry.
Since no such legal charge was placed, it was absolutely lawful for anyone to sell their property without registration.
The government basically got solicitors to go along with the scam. Shows how inept they are if they didn’t read up the law on it.
Go figure. They lied.
@Kal Ipers: Jaysus, a simple tick the “I willingly paid into this blatantly obvious corrupt scam” box or the “I was forced to pay into this blatantly obvious corrupt scam” box would do the trick.
@Kal Ipers: And that came for Liz Pope. The head of the Property Registration Authority Ireland
@Good Early: You really don’t know what you are talking about. Just because a barrister said that doesn’t mean you can ignore it. You would have had to fight it in court and/or your solicitor. You had to pay it to sell in the real world
@Kal Ipers: If the head of the Property Registration Authority says it, it is true. I work there ya numpty!
There are also Constitutional issues regarding a private company, or even the government, neither of which are party to the sale, interfering on such a level. The only way it could be done, is if it was a tax by the government. If it wasn’t paid they could put a lien, via the court, on your property. But it’s not.
Just because something is legislated for, doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s lawful, or enforceable. According to the Land Registry, if ANYONE, had of challenged the legality of it, it would have be knocked in a second.
Again, this was a typical case of “if it looks real, and the people believe it, so be it”. It was a bit like saying they could garnish your wages, even though there is no legal basis in Ireland, from which they could do so.
@Good Early: Yet nobody did challenge it because in the actual world where you are selling your house delays are not what you want. In the real world you had to pay it even if it was just for convenience. Doesn’t matter a damn what a barrister says about it until there is a challenge to assert it.
@Kal Ipers: Fair enough. But my point is, your buddies in Fine Gael were caught lying, again. Everything they do is underhanded. And then they labelled all of us against this double-tax; terrorists, “sinister fringe” and other such nonsense.
Makes you wonder why know one in the media, and I mean no one, read any of the Acts, and challenged either Phil Hogan or Alan Kelly on the legality of their claims/statements.
One thing working in the PRAI has taught me is that the vast, vast, majority of solicitors who work in conveyancing, haven’t a clue what they are doing! Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the legal framework of the State, when they can’t get a simple form correct.
@Good Early: I think of all politicians are pretty much the same and have no favourite which you obviously do. You didn’t learn not to judge people in your job
Have to say it’s positively wonderful watching Fine Gael eating humble pie.
Ironic benefiting from the actions of water protesters, if you felt the payment was just, forget it ….
They shouldn’t br refunded no way …thwy were told not to pay so let them live without a refund
@Laurence O Neill: Told? Was that by the people threatening workers or the group that stopped people going home from work?
Excuse me if I don’t listen to mobs.
@Kal Ipers: I think he probably meant they were informed of the corrupt scam.
@Ronan Sexton: Didn’t you just say words are important? He didn’t say what you are claiming
@Kal Ipers: Get a life like a good lad.
@Kal Ipers: “probably”
Many people that paid, did so under pressure and scaremongering. It saddened me to hear some people did pay but I completely understand why. Those of us that didn’t must stand together with those that did and not let this divide us.
@Dante Marquinhos:
Elderly folk paid their bills when Big Phil the Fine Gael Bully Boy threatened them with disconnection.
He should be brought back from Europe and dragged through the streets.
@Mark DeFriest: Of course and then consider how far the government were prepared to go. Joan Burton and the Gardaí lying in court. Alan Kelly aggressively pushing water charges, while his brother was buying up water infrastructures all over the world but very few would point out the conflict of interest. Among a myriad of other examples that could be given.
If you still think that Irish Water was not being set up to be privatised, then you are partly whats wrong with this country.
It’s funny they have such a hard time calculating how much should be given back. I’d imagine it’s pretty close to the amount they collected. In the opposite scenario, they’d know well how much they’d be getting and they’d be freely adding millions onto their figures.
Sur what’s a couple of million difference to a grouping of incompetent politicians who manage to quadruple the state debt from 50 billion to 200 billion!
Any news on when Irish Water will be abolished in its entirety.
I don’t mind paying for water (which I am doing currently anyway).
But as a company IW is an unmitigated disaster and needs to close down entirely.
@Colin Morris: ah sure the councils have done a stellar job over the last 30 years
@Colin Morris: We shoud shut down Irish water and fire all of the people in the local authorities who mismanaged our water and sewage systems for decades.
FF FG Liebour destroying the majority to benefit a few. This will continue untill we change it …
The Irish people should done the same thing with the property tax but it is possible !!!
looks like everything bad in the economy is down to the refunding of a 2nd tax which was pretty sneaky considering the plan was to sell off the water company. you (the politicians) caused huge financial penalties(billions on crappy 2nd hand water meters) at a time the contry hadnt a penny now we still havent a penny yet it is our fault???
hard luck pascal can still see through your waffle
Let the Irish Water saga be a lesson to the maggots in leinster House that the vast majority of people will not tolerate being ripped off any longer. The same applies to bin charges and tv licence increases. Its time the pocket stuffing shysters in the Dail realised who they’re employer is.
So how are water services actually being paid for now?
Oh ye, through taxation like allways.
And yet FG Alan sourpuss kelly and big phill wanted us to believe that it wasnt a double tax.
Irish people have thankfully started to see through their lies
Well in fairness they are entitled to a refund but they should not have paid it in the first place and let it up to other people to do their dirty work for them . They should have stood up for the Irish people instead of kissing the Irish governments ass but if they have a conscious they should give it to the homeless as the government is doing nothing at all
Older citizens paid because of all the threats and propaganda and people forced to pay to sell their property .,The rest were sheeple who were not willing to stand up to re-charging of water .If it was possible to separate those who were frightened into paying from those simpering gutless fools who paid without a whimper to get their money back from the super quango Irish Water i would be happy the rest ha ha .Organize a protest to get your money back .
Don’t deserve it.
Fg,FF, labour, corruption has destroyed the country.remove them from local council’s and Leinster house.doesnt matter with who, anything would be better to what we have suffered.
Da bunch of saps da paid should go out and protest for their moola back
Refund should come with a letter of apology, for bullying, threatening, antagonising, stress,anxiety, loss of sleep,blood pressure,arguments it causes coughs ,cold ,flu they cause to poeple marching in the cold wind and rain to stop the complete and utter nonsense of a audi, bonus culture quango called IW
@Ronan Sexton: your very ill informed – I could not sell my house unless I paid up to date my water charges- One of the first things my solicitor asked me!
@Dominick Lodola: Where did I mention anything about selling a house?
Just received a boil notice this evening. Some water
You don’t deserve what the criticism !
have your say