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LAST UPDATE | 13 Nov 2020
WE ARE HALFWAY through Level 5.
This week has been dominated by travel, Christmas and discussion around easing restrictions but what does the latest Covid-19 data tell us about our efforts to suppress the virus?
Health officials on Thursday evening confirmed 395 further cases of Covid-19 and one more death.
A total of 362 new cases were confirmed on Wednesday and 270 new cases were confirmed on Tuesday.
That is a total of 1,027 cases compared to 1,357 cases over the same period last week and 2,261 cases the week previously.
Ireland’s reproductive number last week was estimated at between 0.7 and 0.9 having been at around 1 the previous week. It has since fallen further to 0.6.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has said a reproductive number of 0.5 over a sustained period would be a sufficient level of transmission to move out of strict restrictions.
Ireland’s national incidence rate is 135.5 cases per 100,000 of the population on a 14-day rolling average, according to data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre – compared to 212.7 on this day last week and 292.1 the week previous. That’s more than a 50% drop in two weeks.
The incidence rate in individual counties spiked in October but has since reduced even further over the last seven to 14 days.
Cavan, which had the highest incidence rate at the start of Level 5, now has an estimated 14-day average of 118.1 cases per 100,000, according to the Department of Health.
It was 364.9 last week and stood at 753.5 cases per 100,000 on Thursday 29 October.
That’s a significant decrease of 80% over a fortnight.
Donegal, the county with the highest incidence rate in the country, continues to give health officials cause for concern.
The county’s 14-day incidence rate is currently 281.4 cases per 100,000 – a slight decrease from 286.4 cases per 100,000 last week.
Dr Holohan said yesterday that local Public Health teams in Donegal have noted problematic behaviours with funerals and religious services in the county, but said there is no reason why the whole country can’t move from Level 5 on 1 December.
Limerick is now the second-highest in Ireland with a 14-day incidence rate of 197.5 cases per 100,000 – compared to 227.8 cases last Thursday. That is still a reduction but not as marked as in other counties.
Counties with the lowest incidence rates include Leitrim (40.6), Wexford (67.5) and Wicklow (71.6).
By comparison to Europe, Ireland’s 14-day incidence rate is lower than France (940.7), Spain (599.1), the United Kingdom (471.8) and Italy (726.7), according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
The 14-day incidence rate in each of the above countries has increased since last Thursday with Italy’s jumping by more than 22%.
The above countries, including Ireland, are still considerably lower than both Belgium, which has a 14-day incidence rate of 1060.4 and Czechia, which has a 14-day incidence rate of 1331.4 per 100,000.
Chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group Professor Philip Nolan told TheJournal.ie that if cases continue to decrease at the current level we should see an average of 100 cases per day by 1 December.
“When we advised Government that Level 5 measures were necessary we really couldn’t be confident that the level of public buy-in would be such that we’d get to where we are today,” he said.
“We’re in a really good state. People have done everything we could have asked of them in the last three weeks,” said Nolan. “We’re very much on target.”
Testing & Tracing
Approximately 116,000 tests were carried out over the 7 days up to Thursday 22 October when Ireland entered Level 5. The positivity rate then was 6.9%.
Approximately 103,000 tests were carried out in the 7 days up to 29 October with 88,547 tests have been carried in the seven days up to last Thursday.
This week, approximately 77,718 tests have been carried out in the last seven days.
The positivity rate is now estimated at 3.5% – a decrease from 4.6% last week.
The HSE, meanwhile, said yesterday that it is to begin investigating where people are being infected with Covid-19 as part of a new “retrospective contact tracing” policy.
The aim is to gather additional information on Covid-19 cases labelled as ‘community transmission’ – where the source of the infection is unknown – and will involve a series of questions in order to build a more accurate picture of where people are contracting the virus.
The HSE has said that it is important to start enhanced contact tracing while the incidence of disease is low.
Under the new system, when confirmed cases are first contacted by tracers they will be asked “key questions” regarding visits to healthcare settings, visits to friends or relatives as well as questions around restaurants, pubs and cinemas in order to pinpoint if a particular setting is high-risk and requires intervention by Public Health teams.
People will also be asked questions about visits to special events, including weddings and christenings, up to 14 days prior to symptoms developing.
Hospital & ICU
There have been 10 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours and 23 discharges.
There are – as of this morning – 275 confirmed Covid-19 cases in hospitals and 38 people in Intensive Care Units as of 8am this morning.
Last Thursday, there were 295 hospitalised cases of Covid-19 and 38 people in ICU.
As seen in the graph below, ICU cases peaked between Saturday 1 and Monday 3, fell back down to the lowest point since 28 October last Thursday, but have since risen again.
Speaking at a HSE briefing yesterday, HSE CEO Paul Reid said that hospitalisations and ICU number are stable but that the health service had not seen the reduction it was hoping for.
Clusters
The recent increase of outbreaks in schools has reduced again since last week.
There were 24 outbreaks reported by the HPSC up to Saturday. There were 30 outbreaks reported in the 7 days beforehand and 56 outbreaks reported in the seven days before that.
The HPSC notes, however: “These outbreaks are outbreaks associated with school children +/or school staff. Transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established in these outbreaks.”
The total number of outbreaks since the start of the pandemic is 7,266. Of these, 4,202 remain “open” according to the HPSC’s recent data.
For an outbreak to be considered “closed”, there must be 28 days from the last case diagnosed or becoming symptomatic.
There were 443 new outbreaks in private homes up to last Saturday – a increase of 123 or 27% – from the previous week bringing to 5,285 the total number of outbreaks in this setting since the pandemic reached Ireland.
Of these, 3,428 remain open.
Finally, there have been 3 new outbreaks in nursing homes – 49 outbreaks in nursing homes remain “open”.
Overall, taking in every setting, there has been an overall increase of 16% in outbreaks since last week.
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I always found this to be a patronising & divisive way of being ‘qualified’ to elect such esteemed “leaders”. Yes, I DO have a vote but I’ve never availed of it…… Quite pompous that I’m somewhat more entitled to vote than any of my school mates that studied the trades or wet straight into employment.archaic system that needs replacing
@Buster Lawless: You’re a paragon of virtue all the same Ken.
@Buster Lawless: It’s quite interesting, the difference between how you type when commenting about Irish politics versus your inability to string a coherent sentence together when waffling on about Trump. Like most of the so-called Irish MAGA fans, it’s all just an act.
@Brian: sleep soundly at night, never wronged anyone….. If that’s an issue for you…..we’ll, shocker, I really couldn’t possibly care less.
@Jason Memail: 3 of my children were born stateside, Mrs Lawless & I hold US citizenship & YES we are members of the Republican party& are looking forward to voting ( again) for President Trump…… Suck it up!!!!!
@Buster Lawless: I don’t get the “suck it up” bit. You voted for him last time, and he lost. What’s there to suck up? I mean – he lost? MAGA heads are just weird.
@Buster Lawless: ‘ never wronged anyone’, like I say you’re a paragon of virtue Ken .. lol . And you must care a little bit.. you wouldn’t have replied if you didn’t.. bless. Sleep tight Ken.. Big night for ya tomorrow night LOL.
@Jason Memail: 2016 I canvassed and voted for President Trump before he became the ‘NO WAR’ President….. anyhow, can’t see the link between US elections & voting ‘rights’ to the Seanad so again i’d say …’suck it up’
@Brian: ??? How’d you know I’m going to the Ireland v Greece game?? That’s a bit weird, COYBIG!!!
@Buster Lawless: ha ha..Like when you said you were ‘stateside’ for the weekend whilst commenting on the Darts at Christmas Ken .. you were well busted there ‘ buster ‘ .. You’re some Walter Mitty lad . . Lol.
@Buster Lawless: During Trump’s time as president: Bombed Yemen, Somalia and Syria. Dropped – his words – the ‘mother of all bombs’ on Afghanistan and bragged about it. Assassinated a foreign military leader. Drone strikes in Syria and Iraq alone killed over 13k civilians. Increased troop levels in Afghanistan by 25% freed over 5k Taliban members, including the terrorist now running Afghanistan. Truly, the president of peace – facts don’t care about your feelings. At least you’ll get another chance to rally behind him for ’28.
@Buster Lawless: Trump would say mass in little old Catholic Ireland to fair. Having said that,if he doesn’t get elected,I’d reckon anarchy in america. Why? Because that’s what he wants. It’s all about him. Peace maker me hole…
@Brian: lol, ever look in mirror?? Only joined journal.ie in may…. Haven’t been back in US 2024…. but look if your juvenile ramblings work for you… If they give you a weird sense of validation/value……then you just ignore the posters on here that ridicule you constantly & you go ‘large’ & fill your boots
@Jason Memail: so you people can read? That’s impressive.
Now if you can run along and compile all the wars started by your preference you will see that they’re all the same.
@Buster Lawless: Do you understand why the Seanad was created. I doubt it, as if you did you would realise why it has those seats.
In fairness most of the Senators holding those seats have been people who challenged the status que and the policies of government.
@Buster Lawless: Well that explains a lot, vote away as he is digging himself bigger holes to fall into daily.
@Buster Lawless: The “No War” president, he wanted to invade Venezuela among other countries.
He demanded missions happened which failed miserably with bad results and the generals admit they would not show him information as he was likely to over react and endanger more people.
Oh and then rolling over to get his stomach tickled by the Rocket Man and Putin two dictators.
@jiminybillybob: What you’re conveniently leaving out is that nobody else is trying to paint their preferred candidate as the pinnacle of peace. Yes – they have all started wars, continued wars, dropped bombs, and killed civilians.
Maybe Darragh should totally concentrate on the housing issues. That would be nice for sure….
@Paul Gorry: he is Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage, therefore Seanad reform falls under his remit.
@Pat Hazzard: Oh ye get you pat. He’s having a day off.
How about a bill to allow everyone over 18 to vote in the Seanad elections? Remove this stupid elitist education barrier.
@qffaffaf affrafrfraf: YES, 100%….. Farcical system at present
At a time when the government are so focused on equality and fairness, why are they still persisting with this system of electing the Seanad. Firstly if we have to have the Seanad let the general electorate vote , secondly, why should someone who “graduated” have more rights than those who didn’t? …..We all play our part in society!!!
@Ollie Fitzpatrick: Learn our history and you will learn why the Seanad was created in the fashion it was.
A two house system is known as the best type of government, with the second house, in this case the Seanad having a different make up to the main house, The Dail, for specific reasons.
All makes sense when you read about its set up.
@Gary Kearney: I am well aware of how and why it was set up, and am quite entitled to pass comment on it. I do not agree with the system of election. We should all have a say rather than the so called intellectual core!!
so only a certain class of society would be allowed to vote for them ?
what kind of elitist FFG Scandal is that ?
@Dominic Leleu: Read the history of the Seanad and understand that it was nothing to do with them at all!
The people of the county should have a vote to elected these senators it is called democracy
No harm. Will hopefully end the cosy cartel that currently keeps dark-ages fanatics like Ronan Mullen in a seat.
@Jason Memail: I disagree with Ronan Mullins on a lot of things but his and other dissenting voices are badly needed in our democracy. He and a few others called the last two referendums right and were very vocal.
Whatever you think, his voice and other conservative voices are badly needed.
That said, the university votes need to go.
@Teresa Ryan: A stopped clock is also right every now and then – doesn’t mean it’s something to be celebrated. How many referendums has he been on the losing side for?
The people voted a number of years ago in referendum to keep the Seanad as overseer to government proposed legislation ,when at the time Taoiseach Enda Kenny was pushing for it’s abolition. We were promised after that vote that reform would take place into how”ALL”the citizens of this country would be allowed to vote in senate elections.Still the elitism continues in Seanad Eireann.Shame on us for putting up with this elitism and nonsense.
@Gary Heslin: EK did indeed propose the abolition of the Seanad and as far as I remember suggested “something else” would be put in its place but the alternative wasn’t finalised. Having a Dail without the Seanad didn’t feel safe to me, I voted no. If EK had the alternative ready for me to consider I’d probably have voted yes.
Is it not obscene that the TDs are entertaining making something that is undemocratic and wrong slightly less undemocratic and wrong when they have the opportunity to make it right , by extending the voting rights to all Irish citizens.
I can not understand why a certain body of people is given a vote for this place, which is just a club for the select few. Anyhow, why am I and everybody else being disinfranchised as it’s the taxpayers thats funding this ‘House of Lords’
@Anthony Whoriskey: You are not disinfranchised at all. You simply do not know how it works and that is not the Seanad or the Senators fault
@Gary Kearney: Please explain, seeing as you seem to know how the majority of the electorate is not disenfranchised.
Dáil gives regional representation, which actually is more closely akin to the role of local government. The Seanad SHOULD give sectoral representation, where everbody can vote for representatives in one or 2 chosen sectors such as Agricultural, Education, Manufacturing, Small Business, Environmental, Transport, Fisheries, Communication, Tech, etc. etc.
Perhaps the taoiseachs right to appoint members should go as well
if in place it will need to be removed asap
How timely. We only had the referendum to allow this in 1979…
Should’ve gotten rid of this place when we had the chance. The Dáil is the only institution that can the Senate any power or relevance. Why would any politician create a rival for themselves? It’s never gonna happen.
We’re stuck with this broom cupboard of nobodies for good now.
@Ronan Mc: So you do not understand what the Seanad does or why it is there or how a two house government works. Fine.
Then say that. The Seanad has power and relevance but you don’t understand that as you do not understand as most people how the government and the civil service is run.
Stop all these token appointments to the Seanad. Everyone needs to be voted in. Failed politicians need to find another number, but not at taxpayers expense.
About time. I do vote but it’s the same old same
A second house is there to protect the people from overly powerful governments and it works.
The system of voting needs changing and that is well known and wanted by all.
The demolition of the house only suits parties that want absolute power.
The idea behind the Seanad is to have sectorial representation from across the people in the Seanad.
To have their expertise on hand, for people not having to manage a constituency and get re-elected and to have a different voice on committees, where the real work gets done.
More and more the Seanad is being filled with people who have more modern and inclusive voices but there are some of the old school still there. And there always will be as they are representative of some people.
@Gary Kearney: Well Said!
Very elitist system !! Surely every citizen of Ireland, regardless of whether they have a degree or not, should be able to vote on who sits in the seanad.
So our Taoiseach wouldn’t be allowed to vote
All irish citizens over 18 should have a vote. A new government should be allowed to appoint 11 senators. It is UNDEMOCRATIC.
have your say