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LAST UPDATE | 14 Jan 2021
DEATHS ARE INCREASING.
Ireland’s third wave of Covid-19 infection may have peaked last week. However, with 208 deaths so far this month and 417 hospitalisations since Sunday, our health service will continue to bear the brunt of the recent surge.
Over 11,000 new cases were confirmed on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday – compared to more than 19,000 new cases reported over the same period last week.
A total of 3,955 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed this evening.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said this week “we are seeing early signs of progress” but that we should expect hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths to increase “day on day”.
Ireland’s national incidence rate is 1497.0 cases per 100,000 of the population on a 14-day rolling average, according to data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre – compared to 936.4 on this day last week and 296.7 the week previous.
It may appear our incidence is climbing as cases reduce. However, people who contracted Covid-19 over Christmas were not confirmed as positive until several days later. As a result of this backlog in people being tested and cases then being confirmed, our 14-day incidence rate is skewed.
Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group said this evening that despite Ireland’s growth rate decreasing and the number of close contacts dropping to an average of 2.3 per case “there is a long road to go.”
UK variant
The evidence now suggests that the UK variant accounts for an estimated 45.7% of cases detected in Ireland.
Speaking to TheJournal.ie, Dr Cillian De Gascun, Medical Virologist and Director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, said that 94 positive cases sampled for the UK variant so far are mainly in the East and Midlands.
Despite this relatively small sample size, it is a “decent indication” of the level of the variant, he said.
“They’re the limitations of the data but we have a consistent pattern,” said De Gascun. “What we’ve seen in the UK…is that generally speaking these viruses take a bit of time to grow up to a certain proportion.”
De Gascun said that despite small sample sizes “it fits with what we’d expect of a [variant] with this growth rate and level of transmissibility.”
Looking at 14-day incidence rates in individual counties, Monaghan has the highest incidence of Covid-19 in Ireland at 2793.8 cases per 100,000.
Louth is the second-highest county in Ireland with a 14-day incidence rate of 2461.9. Limerick is third-highest with a 14-day incidence rate of 2085.7.
Looking at Local Electoral Area data, Belmullet in Mayo remains the highest individual incidence of Covid-19 at 6031.7 cases per 100,000.
For a breakdown of incidence rates in LEAs around Ireland, see here.
Counties with the lowest incidence rates include Leitrim (724.0), Wicklow (766.0) and Westmeath (772.8).
Ireland’s growth rate is currently the highest in Europe.
Testing & Tracing
Testing had ramped up to almost 25,000 per day last week, and has slightly reduced to an average of 23,000 per day this week.
A lag over Christmas resulted in a spike in demand for tests from 27 December onwards.
Although testing is close to its highest level yet, it is still being curtailed by demand. Close contacts of confirmed cases are no longer being tested as the HSE prioritises people with symptoms.
On 17 December, approximately 83,000 tests were carried out over the previous seven days, an indication that incidence was rising in the lead-up to Christmas. The positivity rate had risen to 3.2%.
Last Thursday, approximately 174,000 tests had been carried out in the past seven days. The positivity rate was 22.7%.
Approximately 167,000 tests have been carried out in the past seven days. The positivity rate has now reduced to 17.9%.
Hospital & ICU
There have been 149 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours and 128 discharges.
There are – as of this morning – 1,789 confirmed Covid-19 cases in hospital and 169 people in Intensive Care Units.
That is an increase of 59% in hospital admissions since this day last week and a 64% increase in ICU admissions.
The previous peak for hospitalisations was in mid-April when 881 people were in hospital. This week saw that figure more than to double to 1,838.
The health system is under increasing strain.
More than 7,000 HSE staff are absent across hospitals, nursing homes, home support services and community services. This is due to either being infected with Covid-19 or being a close contact of a confirmed case.
The Irish Nurses and Midwives Association (INMO) has said the healthcare system is overloaded and is calling for “urgent government intervention”.
It called for the level of PPE in healthcare settings to be upgraded to FFP2 masks, which filter at least 94% of airborne particles.
HSE CEO Paul Reid said today hospital admissions are growing at a “concerning rate” and that the current situation is “quite grim”.
The worst-case scenario, according to NPHET could see 2,500 people in hospital by mid-January and 400 people in ICU by the end of this week.
Vaccinations
Finally, more than 77,000 people have received their first vaccination dose.
A total of 152,100 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine have arrived in Ireland as well 3,600 doses of the Moderna vaccine.
The Government expects AstraZeneca’s vaccine to be approved by the EMA on 29 January, paving the way for 100,000 vaccinations per week in Ireland.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly told the Dáil yesterday that the Government plans to have 700,000 people vaccinated by the end of March.
This would include priority groups – those in long-term residential care, both staff and residents, frontline healthcare workers, and those aged over 70.
Speaking to TheJournal.ie, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said the HSE will be collating figures for the number of vaccinations each week, which will be published online.
“I understand there’s a desire to put out and make available information on a daily basis. I’m not in a position to give a precise update on the timing of that…but the more information we can get on all metrics of the disease the better.”
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How did we get to this situation worst in the world for infection ratese I and everyone I know did what was asked if them and not visit anyone or go to pubs over Christmas just went to the shop to buy food and that’s it , but obviously some people decided that this virus was not that serious and decided to make a complete mess of everything absolutely sickening after all the good work done .
@Ken Donegan: You answered your own question Ken, neighbor of mine who recently recovered from breast cancer was out for a meal with the “neighbors” for their xmass night out…. And is still mingling with the same people this day…
@Dave: It literally beggars belief how people have no cop on or common sense….. They need to be hand held and told or ordered to do everything and still “ah sure il be grand”
Unfortunately the 60 + people yesterday, who sadly died because of this are the results…
@Dave: stop spying on your neighbours.
@Dave: amazing that someone who had a life changing experience (of which you have no part of) decided to take their new lease of life, grab it by the scruff and get on with living…you self obsessed judgemental tool.
@Shkavo: Stop telling him what to do.
@Damo: SARS-CoV-2 will do all the judging of her.
@John Hazelnut: Classy comeback. Compared to cancer Covid is a sunny day. Where’s your empathy? Try thinking about someone other than yourself. Someone with no connection so you can’t bring the story back to you.
@Damo: SARS-CoV-2 will be the judge of what happens to her, assuming it gets her, not me.
“We are seeing early signs of progress” But “expect hospitalisations icu admissions and deaths to increase” that’s very contradictory!
@Colette Kearns: There is a delay, it takes week or two between falling ill and deteriorating to the point of requiring ICU care. Infections peak first followed by ICU admissions.
@Colette Kearns: Death and hospitalizations rates generally follow the infection rate by a period of time.The daily infection rate seems to be falling so the other rates are likely to follow suit as time goes by. The falling daily rate is an early sign of progress. No contradiction.
@Colette Kearns: No, it’s quite straight forward. It takes time for people to become sick enough to have to go to hospital or sadly pass away. The amount of daily confirmed cases has been decreasing and with time so will the the amount of people being admitted to hospital.
Worryingly, are the early signs of progress indicative of them not testing close contacts anymore I wonder? So in reality the numbers haven’t dropped, it is just a case of less testing those who have been exposed to it? RIP to those who died today.
@Kayleigh Furlong-Folan: No. Testing hasn’t decreased. What testing less contacts does is push the positivity rate up as you are testing more people with symptoms.
But watch hospitalisation, ICU and deaths for a picture of how prevalent the virus was in the community’s in the preceeding weeks.
@Kayleigh Furlong-Folan: When they change the testing protocol I’m sure their modelling takes that into account. They have a dedicated modelling team, and it wouldn’t be a difficult adjustment to make given the amount of data they’ve built up.
The article should do more to explain that the second graphic here is presented using a logarithmic scale. So visually, Ireland looks worse here, but not by a lot.
Presented on a linear scale this would be a far more shocking and visually realistic graphic.
Hopefully the “early signs of progress” will continue and will accelerate.
Is it the biggest rate because they included the backlog numbers into the daily ones?
@Sean Oige: It’s because people didn’t follow the guidelines given.
@Pat D’Arcy: I think you’ll find that those “people” are looking at you in the mirror because there’s not one person on this island who has followed the guidelines 100% of the time. No one. There is an insidious virus going around and it will spread.
@Damo: The difference is most people are trying their best to follow guidelines, others don’t give a shìt. Don’t make excuses for the latter.
@Cliff Burnby: You see excuses are the very thing everyone uses. “Oh I’m doing the right thing but look they’re not”. All the while they excuse their own breaking of the rules. “I have a really hard week so I can justify meeting my friend or traveling 5.5km…and anyway I’m not as bad as them so it doesn’t matter”.
Most of the people who “don’t give a shit” are imaginary. The amount of imaginary house/street parties in the last year! All you need to see is one example on social media to suddenly think it’s everywhere. The real “don’t give a shit” people get Covid and learn very quickly. It’s a highly contagious virus anyone can get it in essential work or essential shopping.
@Damo: Don’t know what part of the country you are in but if you think most of those that don’t give a shìt are imaginary you are very naive.
@Cliff Burnby: you said yourself most people are following the guidelines. What’s the difference? My point (which I assumed was clear) is that everyone thinks everyone else doesn’t follow the guidelines except them. Most of it is imaginary and it’s confirmed to them when the see crap on social media or those lads drinking in the street or “hear” about parties… imaginary.
@Damo: I think you’ve missed my point… You might think ignoring guidelines, house parties etc. only exist on social media but just because you haven’t seen it doesn’t make it imaginary. There is a huge difference between those obeying the guidelines and those who ignore them altogether. To believe everyone is behaving equally or that people that ignore guidelines don’t exist is just naive.
Watch out!..overnight immunologists incoming to comment!
Minister for health still denying that the government went against the health guidelines, yet we have the worst numbers in the world. Proof that we should trust the health experts more than politicians during a pandemic.
@Brendan Barr: not true. They both agreed that if we took it easy for 6 weeks we could have a normal (ish) Christmas.
This to the majority of Irish people said take a nap before you go on a 3 week bender.
We spread this virus not the government.
The people of Ireland spread this because we could not control our selves
Couldn’t put it any better myself
What does it tell us? It tells us that it’s winter.
@Declan McArdle: It tells us you’re not very intelligent
Hi all, does anyone know what the individual colours represent on the first graph? I’ve tried HPSC.ie and GOV.ie but no luck.
Looks like Belmullet will soon have herd immunity!! A study of the phases of the Spanish flu might be useful. On the positive a combination of vaccination coupled with some herd immunity will see off this virus. It is a sort of paradox. In Khayalitsha a huge township in Cape Town where it is well nigh impossible to social distance the expected number of cases and deaths did not occur. The authorities there think it may be due to the development of herd immunity!!
RIP
RIP to all that have lost a loved one. Hospitals are usually really busy this time of year because of Flu. Would some of these cases in hospital be flu? It would be interesting to see the flu session data from last year and compare. I don’t think we are seeing transparency. It seems they want to stick with the narrative that this is all Covid. Didn’t Tony say last week, if you have flu symptoms you probably have Covid!!!!
@Damian Murray: they’re two separate diseases. If you test positive for Covid you have Covid. If you test positive for the flu, you have the flu.
Yes, he did say that and as there is very little flu circulating this year then chances are it’s not flu but covid. Just because some of the symptoms are similar, high temp, etc. it does not mean they can be confused when testing.
The x axis scaling on the second graph is stu_pid. And my comment is too toxic to post if I spell words correctly…
The 1st line that says “DEATHS ARE INCREASING” . Does that apply to just Covid? The annual death rate in every country has not increased since Covid. The average monthly death rate in Ireland in 2018 was under 2,600 per month. Even the CSO said on six 1 some time back that the 2020 death rate would not increase because of Covid.
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