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AS ENHANCED RESTRICTIONS for people travelling into Ireland come into force, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar told a Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday night that international travel accounts for fewer than 1% of Covid-19 cases in Ireland at present.
Separately, Taoiseach Micheál Martin told a Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting that of 800 people who travelled into Ireland by air on Tuesday, 397 of them were from holiday destinations.
Since Christmas, there have been increasing concerns about new variants of Covid-19 from the UK, South Africa and Brazil, prompting the Government this week to bring in some measures to mitigate against the risk of importation.
So, is it accurate to say that fewer than 1% of Covid-19 cases are due to international travel? Let’s look at that figure the Tánaiste used on Wednesday night and see where this data comes from.
HPSC
Information on transmission rates and Covid-19 outbreaks are included in weekly reports from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).
The figure for international travel is contained in its most recent 14-day report.
According to HPSC data, between 13 and 26 January, 32,103 cases of Covid-19 were reported in Ireland.
The “most likely source of transmission” in 143 of these cases – or 0.45% – was travel, which, as Varadkar said, is lower than 1% of cases.
The HPSC says that travel-related cases include people who acquire Covid-19 infection outside of Ireland – imported cases – as well as people who are infected directly by these imported cases.
However, taking into account the reality of Covid-19′s spread and Ireland’s track and trace capabilities, there is a nuance behind this data.
A person who travels into Ireland and later tests positive will be defined as a travel-related case based on information provided to Public Health teams.
So, too, will any person they directly infect that Public Health teams or contact tracers are able to link to the original case.
However, onward transmission – should it occur – will not be labelled ‘travel-related’.
A member of the National Public Health Emergency Team [NPHET] explained that cases linked to travel are generally low because it is hard to get exact figures. “It is quite difficult to accurately represent,” they said.
That is because a person could be infected by a travel-related case but never know it.
Cases by “mostly likely transmission source” are set out under six categories by the HPSC – travel-related, close contact, healthcare setting [patient], healthcare setting [staff], community transmission, and under investigation.
Therefore, if a person is infected by a travel-related case – let’s say hypothetically a taxi driver at Dublin Airport – they may not display symptoms for several days and so may not be able to pinpoint how they contracted Covid-19.
In that case, their infection would most likely fall under community transmission, where the source of infection is unknown. That accounts for 5,404 cases between 13 and 26 January.
“The travel data alone doesn’t give you an accurate enough picture of [travel-related] cases,” the NPHET member said.
Based on limited HPSC data, it is accurate to say that less than 1% of cases in Ireland between 13 and 26 January were travel-related.
However, it does not consider the possibility of onward transmission of these cases which ultimately may not be detected or linked to a travel-related case.
So the Tánaiste was right to use a figure that was publicly available, but it is impossible to accurately say if this figure is correct or not, and it is, in fact, likely to account for more cases.
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Grim Times
@John Quill: worse to come unfortunately.
@SFAnkleTapper: where did you get your crystal ball?
@Bitcoin Buddy: Sure you’re into healing crystals, bitcoin pyramid schemes and all sorts of superstition!
This advice is conflicting, on the one hand family can attend but on the other a maximum of 10 can be in the church or cemetery for burial. The one thing any family member would want is to attend the funeral of their nearest and dearest,there is no reason at present to prevent this or restrict this provided social distancing is implemented. All family members should be able to attend.
@Honeybee: I’ve a huge family, we’d have to draw straws if the 10 attendees rule applied.
@hellsbells: Imagine the emotional impact of being told that not only do you not get to see a family member before their death but that you cannot even attend the funeral. This could have severe repercussions on people for the rest of their lives including relationships within a family.
@hellsbells: better than attending multiple funerals
@Honeybee: I absolutely agree with you, but you have to look around at what other countries are now doing. For example in Spain funerals are banned no more than 3 people I believe to attend including the ones who have to carry the coffins in full protective gear. In Italy it’s been worse even. So yes, it’s is by far upsetting but it is to ensure there is less infections and less deaths overall.
Harsh as it may seem, there is obviously a real worry that by breaking these guidelines to go to a funeral, you could be the cause of many more funerals.
I’m fully certain that all who can’t attend a funeral will be forgiven and there will be ample opportunities to pay respects once this has all passed.
@Dara O’Brien: exactly, those attending who are not living with the deceased should simply not be interacting, especially if different households must travel to the funeral. Sorry to say this but this virus doesn’t care or disappear for the day for us to follow social norms. Those who attend have to heavily consider the risk they are putting on their other family members and elderly. Sorrowful times, but alas we have not even reached the peak yet with many more deaths expected over the coming months. There will be time to grief and pay respects at a later stage when we are confident this grave risk has past.
@Derek: I went to a funeral yesterday and there was at least 5 meters between everyone there. Some folk stood at their own loved ones graves well away from the funeral. The locals lined the street on both sides but everyone stayed 5m apart also.
The majority of us drove to the village, stayed away from each other during the funeral and then drove straight home.
@David Corrigan: I’m sorry for your loss. It’s hard to properly mourn when you can’t interact with everyone else who knew the deceased.
@David Corrigan: There David,you have shown how it is possible to attend a funeral while not exposing anyone to unnecessary risk. I am sorry for the loss of the poor individual you grieve, these are strange and difficult times in which we find ourselves.
So there can be 100 people in a supermarket but only 10 in a church or graveyard? Makes sense.
I really dont how it will work anyway, as a loved one is buried, all you want to do is be close to your family.
Sad times for funeral chasing politicians.
@G Row: Not the time or the place for such comments, IMO
@Jo H: That’s your opinion, are you a fan?
@G Row: too sad that you have no humanity
@Oliver Mahon: I have family members on the front line, real front line, nurses on Covid wards. I do not trust our so called leaders with their lives.
You obviously do, too sad that you are that gullible.
Never ceases to amaze me that every discussion on this site ends up with an exchange of vile comments and insults .
@Gerry Fogarty: Are you new here?
Politicians will be delighted if this Policy remains even after the crisis is over.
Less work after all that’s most of what they do.
Will we miss the Gombeens at Funeral’s
Never ceases to amaze me that every discussion on this site ends up with N exchange of vile comments and insults
I read something very similar to this in a WhatsApp message 3 or 4 weeks ago the journal debunked it as fake news Ironic!
@Seanboy: everything was different 3 or 4 weeks ago and these restrictions were not in place then.4 weeks ago you could still go to the pub
@Seanboy: It was fake news back then. Clearly, things have changed.
10 family members at a loved 1s funeral and the likes of Tesco’s and Aldi etc have 40 / 50/ 60 people in the same area…. i feel fit anyone loosing a family member or close friend at this time
That’s your opinion, you a fan?
have your say