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Leah Farrell

'I've been struck by the public's response to what the disease is doing': The key points from tonight's NPHET briefing

A round-up of NPHET’s press briefing at the Department of Health this evening.

PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS today announced a further 617 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland, with 10 further deaths. 

The total number of Covid-19 cases since the outbreak of the virus here last year now stands at 245,310. The number of people who have died has reached 4,866.

Tonight’s briefing was lead by Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan; Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn; Prof Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group; and Prof Martin Cormican, Professor of Bacteriology at NUI Galway.

Here are the key points that were made tonight.

A ‘slight spike’ in cases

  • Although slightly concerned, NPHET are expecting today’s slight increase in cases to be ‘transient’ – a temporary blip linked to restrictions being lifted on 12 April.

There has been a slight increase in cases today, and an increase in average hospitalisations that has left NPHET officials “a little concerned”.

For three weeks, there have been an average of 13 hospital admissions per day. Over the last three days, however, there have been 18/19 admissions per day.

In the “slight spike in cases” Prof Philip Nolan said there is “a need for care”, but explained that they expected an increase of sorts 10 days on from the easing of restrictions on 12 April, when all students returned to schools, some construction resumed, and people could travel 20km or within their county.

 What we tend to see is there’s a period of easing of restrictions, people may do things that they stored up not doing for a period of time. Case counts go up, people see that, and they realise that they need to de-risk their behaviours. 

He said that he has stated previously that the public “reads this disease very well”. He also encouraged anyone who is asymptomatic to go for a test in the walk-in centres over the next couple of days.

“Today, people will be aware that there’s an unexpectedly high number of cases today. That causes people to reassess what they might do over the coming weeks, to limit the risk of transmission, to limit that spike.

I’ve been very struck, over the last couple of months, by the feedback loop there is between the level of disease and population behaviour.

“I’ve been struck by the value of clearly demonstrating to the public what the disease is doing, and even more struck by the public response. We can nearly see the suppression of disease occurring a week to 10 days after the most significant increases in disease.” 

Outbreaks in schools and workplaces
  • The bulk of the increase in cases is in 13-18 year olds, and counties with the highest incidence rates are ones where workplace clusters have happened.

The increase of the rest of school children – in first year to fourth year – took place 10 days ago. Prof Nolan said that this is expected to result in a slight increase in cases, and to then stabalise, as was the case with the phased return of primary schools.

He said that the increase in cases over the last 48 hours “really is dominated by an increased detection in those aged 13 to 18 years of age”.

“A very large cohort of them had returned to school and, appropriately and understandably, with any symptoms they are being referred for tests, and that is picking up some additional cases.”

He said that though this was “the bulk of the cases”, there were also “a significant increase” in cases among those aged 19-24, 40-64, and an increase in the 65-74 group.

Last week, there were 16 outbreaks in workplaces, 11 in childcare facilities and 5 in schools. This week so far, there have been 12 outbreaks in workplaces, 17 in childcare facilities, and 26 in schools.

All bar two of the outbreaks in schools and childcare settings had less than 10 cases, and the two that had more than that had less than 15 cases.

Of cases in workplace settings, Dr Glynn said that there are “significantly sized” workplace outbreaks around the country, with some having 50/60/70 cases per outbreak.

Tony Holohan is back

  • The Chief Medical Officer said the difference between where Ireland is now, and where we had been when he last chaired NPHET briefings, would give you hope.
Isn’t it easy to forget how far we’ve come.

Dr Tony Holohan has been on leave since early February, and he says since then the disease has “really changed in terms of the transmission patterns”.

He said that the number of vulnerable are also being vaccinated.

“When I look at those two things coming back to work, it gives me real hope and confidence that we’re moving through our response to this disease in a way that might enable us to be ambitious about the types of things that would be sensible for us to contemplate easing.

“I think the calculus has changed in broad terms when we see an increasing proportion of those people who are at most risk of the severe affects of this disease being protected by the wonderful addition of vaccination.”

What’s next?

  • Dr Holohan said that we cannot tell where we will be by the autumn, but said that once the vulnerable and over 50s are vaccinated, we can’t let up all restrictions.

Dr Ronan Glynn said something hopeful about the power of science.

Yes, there are significant uncertainties, but what we’ve seen over the past year is that science has essentially stepped up beyond our expectations.

“There are uncertainties around whether or not we’ll need booster vaccines: science and industry research is happening at the moment to facilitate the development of those vaccines.

“There’s uncertainty around the need for vaccination among children. But again, there’s work ongoing so that if children do need to be vaccinated, then those vaccines are available.

“So yes, there are uncertainties around the global picture and how that will impact on us over time, but I think we can have a reasonable degree of confidence that science will continue to step up and provide the answers that we need to in order to move on.”

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55 Comments
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    Mute Paul Dolan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:16 PM

    FFS! When are they going to recommend to stop hiding from the virus and learn to live with it. This constant level 5 so called lockdown is never ending

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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:20 PM

    @Paul Dolan: grand for all of them. Guaranteed income

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    Mute Michael Maher
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:52 PM

    @Paul Dolan: Dr Death is back with the big numbers so I’m afraid we Irish might be in lockdown for a long long time yet.

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    Mute Seán Ó Briain
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:46 PM

    @Paul Dolan: You mean die with it.

    42
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    Mute IamEggBot
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 7:31 AM

    @Phil Keenan: this is the most frustrating aspect, they go on as if peoples livelihoods don’t matter.
    NPHET and all the public servants have had full pay and rises in the last year while the rest of us suffer.
    The house of cards will come falling down again soon, economy built on a foundation of sand.

    64
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    Mute Teresa O'Halloran
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 7:49 AM

    @IamEggBot: maybe it’s because they are health experts not economists.

    24
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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:18 PM

    They’ve already blocked one EMA vaccine, and despite EMA approving J and J vaccine, they still have not approved it here despite the tiny risk. What if they don’t? What then?? Stay in lockdown until we get a vaccine with zero risk??

    321
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    Mute Eoin Fitzgerald
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:59 PM

    @Phil Keenan: there is always going to be an extremely small risk with vaccine. The benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks though. It’s time our realised that.

    135
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    Mute Eoin Fitzgerald
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:04 PM

    **our *government* realised that **

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:08 PM

    @Eoin Fitzgerald: goodnight sweet dreams.

    5
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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:08 PM

    @Eoin Fitzgerald: absolutely there is with every vaccine. That’s my point. I want my vaccine Az, J an J or AB bloody C. Surely it’s my right to be able to get it if I want it.

    37
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    Mute Eoin Fitzgerald
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:09 PM

    @Paul Gorry: cheers Paul :)

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    Mute Bryan Corry
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 11:28 AM

    @Phil Keenan: exactly. We follow EU for everything but when they approved the J&J vaccine our lads decide to have a meeting about it. Delay delay delay

    5
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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:45 PM

    The world and his mother knows this vaccine will go ahead just like the AZ vaccine did. Meanwhile our leaders take the weekend off. Inexcusable.

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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:10 PM

    @Paul Gorry: France have already started using it

    57
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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:21 PM

    @Phil Keenan: exactly Phil. You just emphasised my point. Scandalous stuff we are witnessing with this ineptitude of a government.

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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:45 PM

    @Paul Gorry: no wonder people aren’t listening any more. Muppet show running the country

    51
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    Mute Dobby Dooo Dooo
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:32 AM

    @Paul Gorry: Ironically there will be plenty of vaccination centres open over the weekend. Thanks once again to the healthcare working for rolling up their sleeves and getting on with it.

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    Mute Dobby Dooo Dooo
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:33 AM

    @Dobby Dooo Dooo: ^^ healthcare workers

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:35 AM

    @Dobby Dooo Dooo: correct but maybe not as many that should be.

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    Mute ed w
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 8:16 AM

    @Paul Gorry: ah sure everyone knows its Thursday which is practically the weekend and you cant make decisions over the weekend it’s just not possible.

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    Mute Todd
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:38 PM

    So it used to be most vulnerable and now its the vulnerable and over 50s… So then its gonna be until the children and toddlers are vaccinated… Im all for it all until they start taking the piss…..

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    Mute Colm Byrne
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:40 AM

    @Todd: The article says Tony thinks the vulnerable and over 50’s arn’t enough to end the restrictions.

    There’s little logic in it anymore but not only will the people of this country continue to go along with it, many will agree with it regardless.

    95
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    Mute Todd
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:47 AM

    @Colm Byrne: i understand that Tony thinks that, but the worst part of it is that what Tony says FFG do… Absolutely 0 logic. If we all remember that at the start of this sh!t show, the whole point was to prevent hospitals from being too packed and overwhelmed.. and then the whole narrative changed to being a covid free zone… Basically 180 degree turn and then dont get me started on lockdown part 1, 2,3, 4, etc etc.. some shady stuff is going on behind the curtains and we cant see it and wont be told it. And before i get slated by all the covid crazy people, i agree with somethings theyre doing , but realistically its gone too far now…

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    Mute Colm Byrne
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:59 AM

    @Todd: you’re right, the narrative changes every month.

    If we stick to following NPHET, this is a long way from over and the bar will continually shift, especially with the return of Tony (if you don’t believe that, just look at the change so far).

    The rest of Europe will be back to normal and we’ll still be making excuses for some restrictions

    54
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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 7:20 AM

    @Todd: the emergence of the many different variants have changed the response. As the virus changes so does the response. Makes sense really

    11
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    Mute Colm Byrne
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 8:46 AM

    @NotMyIreland: What new variant is far more deadly?
    Any recent study backing it up or have you just been brainwashed by scaremongering?

    21
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    Mute Franny Ando
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 9:03 AM

    @Todd: We are in a longer lockdown now then at height of the pandemic last year. Its now gone beyond the ridiculous and with Northern Ireland opening up fully over the next few weeks all bets will be off.

    17
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    Mute Todd
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 1:06 PM

    @Colm Byrne: totally agree with you… Its these wanna be virologist/chemists/biologist and everything else that have a Ph.D and Professorship that think they know everything, but all they did was read a few news articles and do a bit of google searching if any… They clearly aren’t even bothered reading peer reviewed research papers….

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    Mute Carmel Kealy
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:43 PM

    I have been following Dr Pierre Korey a respiratory specialist on his success with treating his patients with I VER ME C TIN and the blocking of his success. If the WHO (who is funded by Big Pharma )and our CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICE R acknowledged it’s success the Emergency Powers Bill for Vaccines would have to be scraped.

    115
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    Mute JustMeHere
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:50 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: Go on to bed there now Carmel, have an aul sleep for a few months if you can. This will all blow over soon enough and you can move on to another conspiracy then.

    140
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    Mute Séamus Heffernan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:08 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: Now I know why all the tin foil was gone from the local Tesco. You’re busy making hats again, Carmel.

    66
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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:12 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: I’ve an old TV arial you can use to connect with David Ike

    39
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    Mute Damo
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:13 PM

    @Séamus Heffernan: would ya not just head to the local Centra or Spar for some tin foil?

    17
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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:14 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: even the company who produces Ivermectin says it does not work for covid. Now why would the company that stands to make money off it if it did, say that it doesn’t? Well I’d imagine its a pretty good indication it probably doesn’t.

    50
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    Mute Larry Williams
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:15 PM

    @JustMeHere: just because someone has a different opinion to you doesn’t make them a conspiracy theorist.

    78
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    Mute Gavin Linden
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:17 PM

    @Phil Keenan: What’s an ‘old’ tv ariel as compared to a ‘new’ one?

    8
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    Mute Damo
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:19 PM

    @Larry Williams: sensible comment fair play Larry

    31
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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:33 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: ive been following jesus christ our saviour since i got christened. I think i was brainwashed though.

    13
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    Mute Phil Keenan
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:48 PM

    @Gavin Linden: Jaysus, are you still able to buy or use them. Fair play if you got your hands on one

    7
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    Mute Gavin Linden
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:45 AM

    @Phil Keenan: Yep, freely available, in use by about a million homes in Ireland, surprised you did not know this..

    5
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    Mute Todd
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 12:50 AM

    @Larry Williams: emm yeah it does

    2
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    Mute Joe Moore
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 11:47 AM

    @NotMyIreland: There is some very positive studies to back up Ivermectin as a very good prophalaxis measure for Covid 19.

    3
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    Mute Joe Moore
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 11:50 AM

    @JustMeHere: How is it a conspiracy?? What about the studies that back up the fact that Ivermectin is a very good prophalaxis treatment for Covid 19? Not to mention Vitamin D.

    5
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    Mute Sean
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 7:02 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: commenting in caps makes you look like Donald Trump and you also manage to sound like him.

    2
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    Mute Carmel Kealy
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 10:50 PM

    I have been following Dr Pierre Korey a respiratory specialist on his success with treating his patients with I VER ME C TIN and the blocking of his success. If the WHO (who is funded by Big Pharma )and our CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICE R acknowledged it’s success the EMERGENCY POWERS BILL would be unnecessary then.

    50
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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:18 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: even the company who produces Ivermectin says it does not work for covid. Now why would the company that stands to make money off it if it did, say that it doesn’t? Well I’d imagine its a pretty good indication it probably doesn’t

    78
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    Mute CAMILA REMONA
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    Apr 22nd 2021, 11:42 PM

    @Carmel Kealy: carefull carmel.. I was following someone once.. they didn’t like it.. thought it was creepy…. All I wanted was a lick of their cornetto…..

    54
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    Mute Martin Conway
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 7:51 AM

    It’s so funny the first day tomy is back the numbers jump

    39
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    Mute andy marsh
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 8:10 AM

    @Martin Conway: always 1 get your tin foil hat on way out

    3
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    Mute Robert Clifford
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 1:35 AM

    Shambles

    20
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    Mute Tarraing Mo Liathróidí
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 8:40 AM

    It’s gonna be a long long few weeks till we get to maybe level 3 if we are deemed worthy with all this shenanigans around decisions with vaccines and kite flying around reopening

    19
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    Mute SaveTheTrees
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 8:35 AM

    Vaccinating kids is a bad idea

    24
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    Mute Pat Lane
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 9:30 AM

    @SaveTheTrees: A VERY BAD IDEA!!

    11
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    Mute Corinne Wilson Muller
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    Apr 23rd 2021, 6:00 PM

    Ah for heaven’s sake, so what do they want us in Lockdown until its decided whether even though injected we need a booster injection. I’m sick of this. I have abided by all the rules and regulations but I can see why people have stopped. I don’t agree with house parties etc., but for God sake we need to see it families.

    7
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