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PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS today reported a further 373 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland, with 54 people with Covid in hospital, and 19 in ICU.
Although data relating to the number of deaths associated with Covid-19 have been affected by the cyber attack on the HSE’s IT systems, preliminary figures given at today’s briefing indicate that there have been 38 Covid-related deaths from 18 May-16 June.
There have been a total of 24 deaths notified in May so far.
Today’s briefing was lead by Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan, deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn, and chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan.
1. Antigen tests: I can’t believe it’s not butter
Dr Tony Holohan was asked about an Oireachtas committee appearance yesterday, and a particular demonstration given by a member of NPHET on antigen testing.
Consultant immunologist Professor Mary Keogan gave a demonstration to show that if tonic water is mixed with the antigen test, it can produce a positive Covid result.
At this evening’s briefing, Holohan clarified two things:
Holohan said that antigen tests should be used in outbreak settings, in high-risk environments, and have been used in these cases.
Holohan acknowledged that in the settings where antigen tests are suggested for use, they wouldn’t be self-administered, but said that there are broader concerns, particularly around their effectiveness in asymptomatic cases, which could be as low as 51%.
It’s just not as good as PCR… It’s not a skepticism of antigen testing, it’s the absence of evidence to show that they work well enough to recommend their use.
A pilot use of antigen tests for screening purposes is taking place at four universities this summer, after academics suggested they use these settings for trialing the real-world effectiveness of antigen testing.
In response to using antigen testing to help the resumption of tourism and the aviation sector, Holohan said:
“‘Don’t travel unless you’re vaccinated’ I think will continue to be our message.
“If we can do that, and keep disease incidence low across Europe, we can see the safe resumption of airline travel without the need for any form of testing, which, frankly, would get in the way of the experience. It would be a strange experience to have us all having to subject ourselves to substantial testing as we move in and out of airports.”
2. NPHET’s one big worry
When asked whether the much-criticised gathering on South William Street in Dublin City a number of weekends ago had resulted in more cases of Covid-19, Dr Holohan said that there have been a number of outbreaks related to “all sorts of activities”.
We have much less concern to express about that than we would have for people being able to mingle and come into close contact… We are seeing a persistent high rate of transmission among the 19-20 age group – that comes as a result of contact among people who are still not vaccinated, and we have to express a continuing concern about that.
“If we had one key concern about how this could all go wrong – the confluence of a number of different things that could all occur in the coming weeks.
It will be a fact that we have still a proportion of the population that are unvaccinated, the potential or opportunities for people to go travel, and if people engage in travel before they are vaccinated, mix with other people in other countries who are not vaccinated, the potential for variants of concern to be transmitted, and then those people come back here unvaccinated, and indoor hospitality is open, our third level is open in the autumn, the confluence of those things could lead to a significant change in transmission.
3. Travel to Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Dr Holohan advised the public against non-essential travel to Great Britain amid concerns over the Delta variant.
Advice on travel to Northern Ireland from the Republic has not been formally made, but Holohan said they are “concerned” about the situation across the border.
He said this evening: “We’re strongly advising against non-essential travel between here and the UK, because of the concerns in terms of transmission of the Delta variant.”
Asked if the advice applied to Northern Ireland, he said: “The seven-day incidence that we’ve seen across Northern Ireland, and particularly Derry, in recent days, we know it will be of concern to our colleagues in Northern Ireland and it is of concern to us.
We are expressing our concern about that. We haven’t formally advised on that at this moment in time. We’re keeping a very close eye on that.
4. Why isn’t the Delta variant an issue here the way it is in the UK?
In short, there hasn’t been a huge surge of the Delta variant here because we’ve been able to catch it so far in those who have tested positive after travelling from the UK.
There have been 188 cases of the Delta variant confirmed in Ireland – on Wednesday evening Cabinet was told there were 139 cases. Dr Holohan said that “well in excess of 80%” of the Delta variant cases reported in Ireland have been in Dublin.
Professor Nolan said that there hasn’t yet been a Delta surge here “largely because the majority of these cases have been intercepted at, or soon after the point of entry”.
So, in the UK, there are very significant levels of community transmission and community spread, and therefore, normal exponential growth.
Frankly, it is a testament to the work of our public health colleagues that the variant hasn’t been allowed to escape into the country.
Holohan said that they have not recommended that mandatory hotel quarantine be introduced for the UK.
5. Low number of deaths and hospitalisations
And finally, in some good news, Dr Holohan said this evening: “We are now experiencing near elimination of Covid-19 in the vaccinated population.”
Expanding on that point, Professor Philip Nolan said that there are “very few cases”, or, on most days “no cases” in those aged 65 and older. He said that the number of cases
In relation to hospitalisations, Nolan said: “The number of people in hospital and the number of admissions to hospital is declining quite quickly.”
“And if you look at the slope at the end of that red curve there, the number of people in intensive care, the number of people requiring mechanical ventilation, and you can barely see the admissions bars, because we’re looking at typically 2 admissions every 5 days – so less than one admission per day.”
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Holohan said that Covid has been virtually eliminated in the vaccinated population. Great news. So, no need to wait for the vaccination of non-vulnerable groups before lifting all restrictions. Where is the problem once the vulnerable have been vaccinated? Why does Michael Martin want to vaccinate our children? This seems pointless. Holohan has stated that Covid has been nearly eliminated in the vaccinated population, and we know that we are never actually going to totally eliminate it entirely.
@Jason Shortt: I understand their caution though I don’t agree with it.
Just 14% of 60-69 year olds have been fully vaccinated so far (2 doses). The fatality rate of COVID-19 at age 65 is 1.4% (approx. 14 times flu), 1 dose of the vaccine offer little protection against the Delta variant so many people aged 60-69 are still vulnerable. It will soon change, another few weeks.
That said, it is summer and the virus does not spread well in summer, due to better indoor ventilation (we keep windows open). Also, I think we might reach herd immunity, seems Israel has reached that point:
“Israel offers a glimpse of life after herd immunity: With 80% of adults vaccinated, cases have dropped to 15 per day” – https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-vaccinated-most-adults-covid-herd-immunity-2021-6?r=US&IR=T
@David Jordan: what utter nonsense. The average age at death from Covid in this country is well over 80. The vast majority of those had multiple co-morbidities. A healthy 65 year old has a very low risk of death or serious illness from Covid. Almost 100% of the vulnerable have been fully vaccinated. The most vulnerable group (care home residents) who, on their own, account for more than 40% of deaths, were fully vaccinated months ago. The current situation is totally irrational.
@David Jordan: Copied from the CSO website a moment ago: – “In almost 88% of deaths there was an underlying condition, the median age of these deaths was 83, the same as that for all deaths”.
@Jason Shortt: You’re making elementary mistake.
Almost all elderly people are now fully vaccinated (92% over 80 years, >80% over 70 years). So if there’s bad an outbreak, which I think is unlikely, then the average age of people who fall ill and are hospitalized ill will be younger then previously.
This happened in Israel when they were rolling the vaccine:
“More younger Israelis now being hospitalized for COVID than those 60-plus”
@Jason Shortt: Here; another article that shows that you are wring: you overlooked the fact that elderly are protected, so the average age of hospitalization and death may decrease, if there was a renewed outbreak.
“Average age of coronavirus deaths in Israel is getting lower”
I however want to make it clear that I do not think this will happen here.
@David Jordan: Correct link: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/average-age-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-israel-is-getting-lower-657070
@David Jordan: I’m making no mistakes, elementary or otherwise. You appear to assume that all people aged 60+ are equally vulnerable. With very few exceptions, this illness badly effects the very old and the already very sick. Those groups have almost all been vaccinated. Of course some younger people will fall ill, and some will require hospitalisation; sadly, some will die. But that is the same as every single illness. Deaths were extremely low before the HSE hack several weeks ago, and large numbers have been vaccinated since then, so, presumably, the death rate has continued to decline. The continuation of restrictions and the obsession with vaccinating people who are not vulnerable has got to stop. It’s actually insane at this stage.
@Jason Shortt: The younging effect was seen in Chile France, Israel and the US:
https://imgur.com/gallery/AuwtHap
Vaccines were first given to elderly in most counties, as a result the proportion of younger (unvaccinated) patients admitted to hospital increased.
The average age of patients admitted to hospital, ICUs and even the average age of COVID-19 deaths decreased. The evidence is there.
However, I want to emphasize that I don’t think this will happen here as it is now summer. I don’t believe we will have another bad outbreak.
@David Jordan: You’re really getting desperate now. The ‘about’ page on the site that you posted the link from proudly boasts the following : ‘Millions of people. Billions of Cat GIFs.
As for your ‘younging effect’ comment, do I really have to explain to you why this is a total non-isssue?
@Jason Shortt: Sorry, I think you are misunderstanding me. So I will try to make myself clear. I apologise for the misunderstanding.
I fully agree with you that this is a non-issue and that this will not happen.
All I am saying it that IF we had another a bad outbreak (We Won’t), than more unvaccinated <70 years olds would fall ill than fully vaccinated elderly. This is a function of the effectiveness of vaccines, more than anything.
In this entirely hypothetical scenario of another bad outbreak, that won't happen, I think the proportion of younger (unvaccinated) patients in hospital and ICUs would increase.
Again, this is not a prediction, I don't think we will have another bad outbreak
We saw younger patients admitted in many countries where the vaccine was given out to the elderly first, concurrent with a bad outbreak (<— that is important, we don't have a bad outbreak). Again, this is NOT a prediction.
I originally described entirely hypothetical scenario because I think NPHET is worried it might happen, and maybe the reason why they are reluctant to open up quicker.
I think, NPHET thinks, that another outbreak could affect the unvaccinated section of our population, leading to an increase in infections and hospitalisations in younger unvaccinated age groups (50s-70s).
However, I strongly think it will NOT happen due to the summer weather, and in a month or so from now we will have far more <70s fully vaccinated anyway, making this hypothetical scenario a technical impossibility.
It is regrettable that social media tends to turn debates and discussions into divisive black/white shouting matches.
@David Jordan: it has to decrease due to elderly being
@David Jordan: it decreases exactly because the elderly are vaccinated..
It proves the system is working… Not that younger and younger are growing in %
That’s obvious….
@Jason Shortt: Oh, sorry I forgot to provide the reference for the Infection Fatality Rate by age, where I said people, aged 65 have a fatality rate of 1.4%:
“The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85.”
To put that in perspective:
“For example, an English person aged 55–64 years who gets infected with SARS-CoV-2 faces a fatality risk that is more than 200 times higher than the annual risk of dying in a fatal car accident.”
Levin, A.T., Hanage, W.P., Owusu-Boaitey, N., Cochran, K.B., Walsh, S.P. and Meyerowitz-Katz, G., 2020. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications. European journal of epidemiology, pp.1-16.
Also, here is the TILDA report that shows that >37% of people aged 60 – 69 have 3 or more comorbidities that increase their risk of severe or fatal COVID-19. See page 33:
https://tilda.tcd.ie/publications/reports/pdf/Report_DemographicsOver50s.pdf
Vulnerable people are not rare.
@Colm Feighery…. Time to start Alan?:
Yes, it is likely even if there was an severe outbreak, overall deaths will likely still decrease, despite the average age of hospitalization, ICU occupancy and average age of deaths decreasing. I never suggested otherwise.
@Jason Shortt: Unfortunately it kills younger as well, and some are left with severe disabilities.
@Jason Shortt: you should be running the country
The hse is saying to use antigen tests but NPHET are saying they aren’t as good as PCR tests? Who do we believe?
@K C: We believe whoever has not a vested interest in either test.
@Gere: which is who? Genuine question because my workplace are thinking about getting antigen tests in. They don’t seem that accurate.
@K C: Cannot name names, but look at who has control of the main lab that process the PCR tests & also what board that person is on. Our local company has been using antigen tests since last September. 100+ employees. Staff were ringing in pretending they had covid symptoms to get a day off. The Antigen tests soon sorted that out.
@K C: three people I know from the same workplace took antigen tests recently, all negative results. Pcr tests confirmed all 3 were positive. By the time they went for and got pcr results they had infected a good few more people they work with because they thought they were OK. Antigen tests are unfortunately rubbish
@K C: The antigen tests are really not reliable and keep throwing false positives. My aunt was brought into hospital in the UK done the test positive for covid. Done a 2nd one and 3rd one and they were negative. Nurse even said this keeps happening
@Julianne Power: We believe you.
@K C: the difference is 8n who is being tested…
People showing illness or a work cohort…
If 100 healthy people antigen test…. The percentage will of course be lower than if people showing symptoms went for a test…
Tomatoes vs tomato’s
@Julianne Power: bull…. As in 4 legged excretion ..
@Colm Feighery…. Time to start Alan?: why would would make it up? Not everyone is here for attention
@a: fairplay troll
Smithwicks is just not as good as Guinness but they both get ya steaming
@Shaun Gallagher: yeah but you get a steamy shi – ite quicker from the smithwicks than waiting the next day for the Guinness one! Just like anti-gen and PCR
@This time its personable!: very true
Has Tony shares in pcr tests at airports r wat
@kris: No.
@Sean O’Doherty: de gascun has …..
In all due respect….. Feck right off…
PCR test done 3 days before travel, what’s to say after the result you get covid but you got a negative result 3 days prior to travel. Antigen test done on the day of travel 15 to 20 minutes you get your results. Someone is making money on all this. Example fly to Switzerland they accept PCR and antigen testing if you don’t have a PCR test all countries doing it differently.
Tony needs a crash course in Antigen testing from Luke O’Neil
Hubris, Nphet are smarter than ever one else in the medical research world.
DeltaPlus is going to be a problem
Mary keogan said “what I did was ,I just put butter on this”. In case it sounded like and was confused with ‘buffer’, she states two sentences later “if you just put butter with no sample you get a negative result”. In any case, nobody is suggesting that a self administered antigen test is acceptable for travel for example, so the argument is a pointless one.
Looking forward to the day when that chancer Holohan gets his marching orders.
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