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Tom Clonan The Taliban's power grab was spectacular but they can't govern at gunpoint

The security analyst looks at the Taliban and discusses the possible future outcomes for the people of Afghanistan.

NATO’s war in Afghanistan is over. Over the last three weeks, the US and her allies – including Ireland – have evacuated over 120,000 people from Kabul International Airport.

On Tuesday night, Major General Chris Donahue of the 82nd Airborne Division became the last US soldier to quit Afghan soil. The NATO-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has been replaced by the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

What happens next? The west’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was a seismic event, one that has profoundly altered the geometry of international power relations in Central Asia and throughout the Islamic world.

In the immediate term, Afghanistan is on the precipice of a humanitarian catastrophe. The primary challenge for the Taliban will be to govern 38.4 million people – made up of Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara groups. Whilst their seizure of power was spectacular, the Taliban will not be able to govern at gunpoint.

The most pressing concern is feeding the population. According to UNICEF and the World Food Programme, approximately one million Afghan children under the age of five are suffering from malnutrition. A further two million have no access to clean water.

In a perfect storm, the combination of the conflict, unprecedented drought and the ravages of Covid-19 have plunged the country into crisis. International organisations such as the UN and the WHO have urged donor nations and contributing nations not to withdraw their funding or personnel at this key moment for Afghanistan.

Many challenges

With approximately 40% of Afghanistan’s income and sustenance coming from this type of foreign aid, the Taliban will come under pressure to allow international aid agencies and NGOs to continue their work.

The coming weeks and months will demonstrate the bona fides of the Taliban in this regard – whether or not they will allow westerners to continue their work unmolested – among the civilian population.

Due to a deterioration in the Covid-19 situation, many schools throughout Afghanistan are closed with approximately 19 million girls – and boys – unable to avail of education. The Taliban will come under a lot of international pressure to return the population to school and to address the chronic skills-shortage that undermines their capacity to run their own critical infrastructure and administration.

A key component of kick-starting international aid and support will be the re-opening of Kabul International Airport. The Taliban showed themselves unable to secure the airport which came under missile attack from Islamic State (Khorasan) last week.

The Turkish government – which previously provided troops to secure the airport, prior to NATO’s withdrawal – is in negotiations with the Taliban get the airport up and running again. This will be vital to the restoration of vital aid – essentially life-support – for the Afghan population.

Interestingly, the security of key installations within Kabul – such as the Presidential Palace and Kabul Airport itself – has been entrusted to the Taliban’s ‘elite’ Badri squads. These troops – often armed with US assault rifles and equipped with US military equipment such as night vision equipment (NVE) and Humvees – are controlled by the powerful Haqqani network.

Competing agendas

Approximately 15% of Taliban forces consist of fighters loyal to the Haqqani network. An extremist Islamist organisation – represented at the highest levels of leadership within the Taliban – the Haqqani network is aligned with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. It is also aligned with and supportive of Al Qaeda networks throughout the Sahel in Africa – groups such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia, Boko Haram in Nigeria, and groups such as Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin in Mali. The Haqqani network also has links with Islamist extremist groups in Burkino Faso and Chad.

The centrality and prominence of the Haqqani network – and their Al Qaeda affiliates – at the centre of Taliban command and control in Kabul provides the international defence and intelligence community cause for grave concern. In the medium term, as the Taliban – presumably – consolidate their power and control in Afghanistan, the west will seek reassurances that the country will not become an international safe haven and training base for Islamist extremists from all over Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.

To this end, Afghanistan’s neighbours – the de-facto regional powers in Central Asia – Pakistan, China and Russia have carefully prepared for the Taliban’s inexorable return to power. Over the two decades that the US and NATO were fighting in Afghanistan, China and Russia have quietly nurtured an ‘Anti-Islamic Fundamentalism Alliance’ in the region.

The so-called ‘Shanghai Five’ nations of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan have formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to coordinate their regional interests along the border with and within Afghanistan. Both the Russians and Chinese have engaged in extensive negotiations with the Taliban – including two China-Taliban Summits in 2018 and 2019 – to ensure that they do not export Islamist extremism and Islamist terror attacks into China or Russia or its satellite states.

In return for this cooperation, under China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) Xi Jinping’s administration has promised massive investment and infrastructural development in Afghanistan as part of the Chinese China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Trans-Himalayan Connectivity Network (THCN).

The United States Trump Administration sought similar assurances from the Taliban – that they would not facilitate the exportation of Islamist terror attacks to western targets – in the 2020 Doha Agreement. In exchange for this reassurance, the US agreed to withdrawal after their longest – and in financial terms, costliest – war in American history.

Failed foreign policy

In geopolitical terms, the first two decades of the 21st Century have amply demonstrated that international relations are not best conducted through crude and massive force projection – pre-emptive strikes or invasions. This strategy has failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. Despite spending Trillions of Dollars – and losing thousands of young lives – the US and her allies have not achieved their political objectives in the Middle East or Central Asia. Instead, competing powers such as Russia and China have benefitted through the use of ethically dubious, canny diplomacy, judicious – but brutal – use of force and soft power in the form of dialogue and investment.

The immediate, short and long term ramifications of the end of NATO’s war in Afghanistan are profound. It remains to be seen how the Taliban will govern the civilian population – particularly women and girls. The omens are not good based on recent Taliban statements on the primacy of their version of Sharia Law. Their capacity to meet basic human needs, and willingness to respect basic human rights are in doubt.

In the medium term, it remains to be seen if Afghanistan will become a centre for international terrorism – with a resurgent Al Qaeda at the heart of Taliban power structures.

In the long term, the global world order appears to have shifted somewhat. NATO’s first war outside of Europe has ended in failure. The first two decades of the 21st century have seen the US and Europe – through debacles such as failed invasions and phenomena such as Brexit and the Trump Administration – lose a significant amount of political, diplomatic and moral capital.

The coming decades – with greater regional instability and the challenges of climate change – will require a great deal of creative thinking if we are to continue to prosper, or even survive the challenges that lie ahead. As Ireland assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council – we should ensure that our independent, neutral voice contributes to the re-assertion of common sense, humanity and decency in international affairs.

Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter. 

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    Mute neildarkmind
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:04 PM

    It’s like everything in life different things work for different people I firmly believe in positive thinking and as a person that suffered a lot of anxiety I constantly remind me self every day that all in good for me .i gave up drink stop taking drugs it took a year to properly sleep but now 3 yrs on I’ve never felt better no anxiety no panics attacks so I welcome any new studies that might give someone back there life it ain’t easy but I definitely say it’s well worth

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    Mute Thomas Mac
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:45 PM

    Were the drinks and the drugs causing the anxiety,Neil?

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    Mute Thomas Mac
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:47 PM

    *drink

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    Mute neildarkmind
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:53 PM

    @ Tomas Mac ya big time I was a regular drinker and drug user coke yolks and blow drank every night I was 35 and sick of it all my docter was brilliant spoke to me like a mate and told me to pack it all n and c if it made a difference took an antidepressant for fees weeks didn’t agree with me so I took up running eating proper and I’m serious when I tell you I couldn’t sleep properly for a year best decision of me life I feel like the last 3 yrs I have only started living

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    Mute Stephen OR
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:01 PM

    Fair play Neil, great to hear lad…wish you all the best!

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    Mute Thomas Mac
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:07 PM

    Good for you,Neil ..By the way,I wasn’t being smart ..

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    Mute Stephen OR
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:17 PM

    Don’t worry about that Thomas, there are some gobshiites on here who take the tone wrongly!

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    Mute molly coddled
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    Nov 30th 2014, 12:11 AM

    Good for you Neil

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    Mute Meow
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    Nov 30th 2014, 12:20 PM

    Well done.

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    Mute simon shewster
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:28 PM

    This is gonna sound unpopular but being someone who suffers with depression and anxiety, I think it is something to do with how Irish people are raised, growing up feeling a guilt and sad feeling. The irish parenting style is one that inflicts fear and sadness, with a mentality of don’t let them get too above their station. I currently live in london and therapy has helped me understand why I feel down. Our collective destructive relationship with alcohol is from a sadness deep in our souls.

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    Mute Angela Finney
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:58 PM

    Totally agree – Irish catholic guilt and also a generation of parents who didn’t know how to emotionally express themselves or their love for their children.

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    Mute simon shewster
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:13 PM

    My problem was constanly being put down. Now I realise its actually ok to be me and not conform to what someone else says or wants. I was also guilt tripped and bullied as a child and it manifests itself today with feelings of low self worth, anger and sadness. My therapist (who is half Irish), was shocked at some of the examples I gave her, and I always thought this behaviour of ridicule and bullying was normal.

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    Mute simon shewster
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:13 PM

    If I didn’t emigrate, I don’t know if I’d be alive today.

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    Mute thetruth
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:53 PM

    I suffered far too long. But ihave to say, the help i got from nortg kildare health service was brilliant. They referred me to a specialist therapist. After a year of theraphy i felt a different person. Subconsciously now i am well able to deal with stress, anxiety and depression.

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    Mute simon shewster
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    Nov 29th 2014, 8:14 PM

    thats great to hear truth, the problem for me is alcohol, shiftwork amd depression all feeding into each other. I have done 10 weeks of thearapy free via the NHS. Unfortunately its some coming to an end :(

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    Mute Brian Ó Dálaigh
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    Nov 30th 2014, 12:49 AM

    I can’t find the link just now, but apparently there’s a link between the Irish predisposition towards depression and the Famine. It became so ingrained in our psyche that it has been passed on from generation to generation. That kind of psyche would explain a lot. Not just us, but Israel, the native Americans and Armenia amongst a lot of others.

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    Mute Sat Singh
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    Nov 29th 2014, 5:46 PM

    Most people in the early stages of depression/anxiety do not
    want to participate in group work as their illness does not
    allow them to do so.One glove does not fit all,this is a complex
    illness,even psychiatrists struggle will treatment regimes,ECT
    Is a prime example as it is given,usually after other treatments
    without any knowledge whether it will work.

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    Nov 29th 2014, 5:49 PM

    Not so good news for people who don’t want the whole town to know their private business.

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    Mute Shanti
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    Nov 29th 2014, 11:37 PM

    That’s not what mindfulness therapy involves. It’s not group counseling – more a group meditation – focusing on your own feelings and senses, it’s quite private.
    Also beneficial as a stop gap when waiting lists for individual counselling are long, which they always are.

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    Mute manicmancity
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    Nov 29th 2014, 5:57 PM

    Good news for the HSE. What about the recovery principles of choice,control,& empowerment. Naw lets save money and put everyone into group therapy

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    Mute David Lynch
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    Nov 29th 2014, 8:10 PM

    I’ve been lucky in that I’ve never suffered with depression or anxiety

    The important thing is that for people who do suffer and people that don’t suffer, remember both are involved in fighting it…

    Talk to your friends or family and let them know you’ve an open mind and your there if they wanna chat…

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    Mute Freddie Trevaskis Hoskin
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:46 PM

    Yeah but CBT is a terrible way to treat depression or anxiety and is designed for phobias. It’s obviously not working at the moment so trying to get the same results as CBT with group mindfulness is pissing in the wind and a complete depersonalisation of people with mental health issues. Forcing loads of socially anxious people into an emotionally charged group setting is also blatantly counter intuitive. Perhaps more funding, better therapy methods and a conversation on how to fix the underlying social problems that cause mental illness in the first place are what we need?

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    Mute Patrick Corr
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:51 PM

    CBT can be an effective treatment for depression, but only on an individual basis. What works on one may not work with another. The type of depression and the severity of it is also a factor to consider.

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    Mute Freddie Trevaskis Hoskin
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:15 PM

    Yeah I’ll concede that it works sometimes but nowhere near often enough to be our prescribed means of dealing with depression or anxiety.

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    Mute neildarkmind
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:38 PM

    @ Freddie antidepressants help u sleep when u sleep well u feel better that’s the concept but what about the problems that are causing the anxiety I think some docters wil fob u off with these depressants it’s not there fault that we have not enough councellers to help but I guarantee you if they done a study on people who have got rid of there anxiety it’s thru talking positive thinking no drink no drugs eating properly exercise ,and I’m not saying don’t take antidepressants if they help ,you have another option to make the head stronger

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    Mute Patrick Corr
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:41 PM

    There are a few options alright that are worth talking about. ECT seems to be making a comeback, although I am a sceptic about the long term benefits of ECT. Nature versus nurture is a big debate, but I have not aware of any particular studies on this. I think genetics is a big factor in depression. Dopamine, serotonin, and oxytocin production within the endocrine system.

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    Mute Patrick Corr
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:44 PM

    Many GP’s will prescribe anti-depressants to lift the mood temporarily while encouraging the patient to seek alternative methods to deal with the depression on a long term basis. But I am not a fan of prescribing anti-depressants on an indefinite time period.

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    Mute thetruth
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:55 PM

    Individual basis Patrick. If it wasn’t for them i don’t think I would be alive

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    Mute Shanti
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    Nov 29th 2014, 11:49 PM

    The problem with anti depressants is that while they’re only supposed to be used as a last resort, they are frequently handed out as the first type of treatment.

    Not everyone has a serotonin imbalance. In fact, when you put all of the trial data submitted to the FDA on SSRIS drugs together and analyze them, you come up with results that state they perform no better than placebo.
    http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050045
    Worse still – if you take these drugs and you *don’t* have a serotonin imbalance, then the drugs can actually cause one, which can have some pretty serious consequences.
    Really, you should need a clinical test to ascertain whether you require a prescription for these drugs – as they are literally intended to alter your brain chemistry, something we don’t truly understand in its entirety yet.

    Depression and anxiety are complex demons, much like the mind itself. Mindfulness is intended to give you greater insight into your own mind and how it works, the “physician heal thyself” approach, so a group session would be no more emotionally challenging than a group meditation.

    It’s not going to fix everyone, but best practice says you should be exhausting all non medical methods of treatment first. Because not everyone’s cause is the same – if you eliminate or repair the cause the symptoms disappear, if all you do is treat symptoms then you will continue to need to treat them indefinitely.

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    Mute Patrick Corr
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    Nov 30th 2014, 9:14 AM

    I agree Shanti. SSRI’s are/were prescribed to frequently and handed out like smarties. While as I have previously said they can be used short term as a path to receiving more beneficial treatment, they can indeed cause more problems than they solve. Seroxat being one of these. There was a study carried out a number of years ago when it first came to light that Seroxat (apart from being highly addictive) was causing a number of users to have suicidal thoughts, even though they may never have had these thoughts before. This was partially caused by patients suddenly stopping usage of the medication as opposed to weaning themselves off the drug. There were too many side effects.
    CBT is a great starting point for treating depression, but it may not work for everyone. Environmental factors, mindset, self image etc, which CBT can be of help with.

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    Mute Tom the Bomb
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    Nov 29th 2014, 6:31 PM

    Oh great! ONE study with a small sample size got positive results. Let’s change the way we do everything…

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    Mute Orla
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    Nov 29th 2014, 7:20 PM

    Makes reference to improvement at 8 weeks. Was there any longer term follow up? As this is a life long condition – what is the evidence for long term effectiveness of group mindfulness therapy? All research has to be taken with a pinch of salt and not automatically adopted.

    Health professionals are obliged to operate in evidence based practice which is a triad of best available evidence, expertise and patient values.

    As mentioned by others, if patients are adverse to group therapy this should be taken into consideration as part of evidence based practice. It’s good news for HSE as it is another avenue to explore, not because it’s cost efficient but as it is an effective intervention.

    More importantly as part of the research who delivered the mindfulness programme? If psychologists – how many of them exist in the community??? Very few.

    Massive consideration needed before we tout this as the wonderful solution you appear to be.

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    Mute Shanti
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    Nov 29th 2014, 11:56 PM

    The evidence shows that when it comes to treating depression we are shooting in the dark.

    The most popular mode of treatment is SSRI medication, but the *evidence* (as in the meta analysis of trial data) says that they are outperformed by placebo and that the increased responsiveness amongst the most severely depressed patients was borne out of a reduced response to the placebo rather than any positive effect of the drug.
    http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050045

    Yet they continue to be prescribed with alarming frequency, given that they carry some very serious side effects.

    Best practice states that all non medical modes of treatment should be exhausted first, but this is rarely what happens in reality.

    Yes – health care professionals are supposed to base treatment on that which has sound evidence to back it up – so why is there an almost dogmatic reliance upon proven non effective treatment?

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    Mute Ronan Stokes
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    Nov 29th 2014, 9:16 PM

    What about transcendental meditation? Anyone tried that? Supposed to be good for anxiety and stress.

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    Mute Jamie O'Connor
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    Nov 30th 2014, 12:27 AM

    Arthur Ashe a famous tennis player had some inspirational quotes:

    Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can”

    ”Regardless of how you feel inside, always try to look like a winner. Even if you’re behind, a sustained look of control and confidence can give you a mental edge that results in victory”

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    Mute Ben Dover
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    Nov 29th 2014, 8:26 PM

    Just a passing phase that will benefit no-one in the long run! Stick to the tried and tested ..CBT and if you need them ,antidepressants.

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    Mute Ben Dover
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    Nov 29th 2014, 9:11 PM

    I’m going to set up an online reiki healing page ..Just upload your photo onto my page and I’ll hover my hands over it .$$$$$$$

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    Mute Andy Patton
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    Nov 30th 2014, 3:02 PM

    Is it gluten free?

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    Mute James Sharp
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    Nov 30th 2014, 12:31 PM

    If you are suffering from depression, I recommend the http://destroydepression.com system.
    Written by a former sufferer of depression, it teaches a simple 7-step process to eliminate depression from your life.

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