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YOUNG ADULTS ARE in danger of falling through the cracks as the Irish economy continues to recover from the pandemic shock, experts and advocates have warned.
The crisis of the past 18 months has compounded long-standing issues — skyrocketing accommodation costs, low pay and precarious work — that have dogged the 15-34 age cohort in the years since the post-2008 recession.
In some respects, young workers had only begun to regain some of that lost ground when the pandemic hit.
But over the past 18 months, the burden of Covid-related job losses has fallen unevenly on sectors where young workers are heavily represented. Retail, arts and leisure and hospitality were most affected — sectors which also tend to have a higher incidence of low pay and precarious work.
With this week’s Budget, the Government hoped to copper-fasten the economic rebound and safeguard incomes against the rising cost of living.
But does it do enough for young working adults or is it charting a course for another recovery that will largely bypass this age cohort?
“The direction of travel is positive, except the scale of action is completely anaemic,” Ruairi Power, President of University College Dublin Student Union (SU), told The Journal this week.
Amid declining rates of homeownership — due to the affordability crisis in the housing market — workers in their 20s are now spending more on rent and earning less in real terms than their parents did. That’s according to a study by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) published earlier this year.
While there are “some positives” in the Government’s ‘Housing for All’ strategy, there was a “threadbare focus on renters overall” in Budget 2022, Power believes.
“We were hoping to see a more targeted timeline for intervention set up this year,” he said.
That didn’t happen. Particularly when it comes to purpose-built student accommodation, it’s clearly not a priority for Government, even though it is probably the biggest challenge for students in trying to find accommodation — the lack of affordable supply, the lack of accommodation near to college campuses.
The decision to halve public transport fares for people under the age of 24 is “probably the biggest win” for students in Budget 2022, the SU president said.
Power also praised the 30c increase to the minimum wage.
But a €200 increase to the SUSI grant — the first in a decade — is a drop in the ocean, he believes, given that “the cost of living has exponentially increased in that period of time”.
‘Less rapid wage growth’
“There are good reasons to be concerned” about the bigger picture for young adults, said Barra Roantree, an ESRI economist who authored the report on intergenerational inequality earlier this year.
Aside from high accommodation costs, the other major issues likely to be compounded by the pandemic are anaemic wage growth and the persistence of unemployment among younger workers, Roantree said.
His research has shown that before the pandemic, younger workers were still reeling from “the consequences of the Great Recession”.
The combined impact of two massive crises in the space of just over a decade is really something to worry about, particularly when you match that then with the developments in the housing market.
Younger workers, younger adults are really the people who are most exposed to rental sector, because of declining homeownership rate.
While employment had recovered for most age cohorts during the intervening years, that wasn’t the case for young adults as the public health crisis hit.
“For those between the ages of 20-24 the share of them who weren’t in employment or training was still quite a bit above where it was in 2007,” Roantree explained.
“Even for other younger age groups – those in their late 20s and early 30s – it only just really recovered on the eve of the pandemic back to kind of where it was before the Great Recession.”
Then came Covid-19 and with it business closures and ballooning jobless figures. In April this year, the Covid-adjusted jobless rate — which includes Pandemic Unemployment Payment recipients — topped 61% for 15-24-year-olds.
“That’s, in part, because of the sectors they work in,” Roantree said.
Retail, hospitality, arts and leisure — much more younger adults work in those sectors than used to be the case.
For people born in 1990s or the late 80s, something like a third of them at age 25 work in those sectors, whereas for people born in 1970s, it was only about 20%.
These also tend to be the sectors of the economy with some of the highest incidence of low pay.
Because of this, younger workers before the pandemic “were essentially starting their careers relatively lower down the wage ladder in lower-wage occupations than previous generations,” Roantree explained.
“And they were also experiencing less rapid wage growth.”
Those two issues are “particularly troublesome” for women, he added.
“If you’re starting lower down the wage ladder, progression becomes more important. And if you’re then getting less progression, then that’s not a good position to be in.”
Although there has been a rapid recovery in the unemployment picture this year, we’ll have to wait to assess the longer-term impacts, Roantree said.
Youth dividend
“I fundamentally believe that the intergenerational social contract is under threat,” said Ian Power, Chief Executive of youth information service SpunOut.ie.
You’ve got stagnant wages, increased job insecurity, higher costs of living across the board, but particularly in housing. You’ve also got a situation whereby young workers today are funding a growing ageing population in terms of pensions and healthcare.
“Ultimately, that’s all going to come to a head at some point and the younger generation is going to question what it’s getting from the system.”
Although there was certainly a welcome “youthful tinge” to Budget 2022, “the scope of ambition was just too narrow to make this a proper youth dividend budget”, Power believes.
Overall, it does little to address major intergenerational imbalances, he says.
But what about the more immediate issues like youth unemployment, training and development?
“I very much welcome the increase in the number of apprenticeship places over the last two budgets,” Power said.
In particular, he praised a new online CAO portal — announced by Higher Education Minister Simon Harris this week — that will allow students to view apprenticeship options alongside university and further education courses for the first time.
“That’s all really positive — but I do think what we’re most concerned about is young people who are long term unemployed and who were at least a year out of employment before the pandemic began,” Power said.
We didn’t see any sort of specific measures contained in this budget to help those young people get into training so that they can fundamentally get into jobs that are going to give them a good wage.
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Amnesty International’s condemnation of Ukraine setting up military positions in residential areas is startling but it doesn’t suit the Narrative at the moment so media stays quiet
@Brian Burns: That’s true of the media on this side of the Atlantic. Different story in the States. There have been highly critical articles published in the NYT, Washington Post etc. directed at Zelensky and Ukraine’s Military. I think that the Yanks are preparing to throw Zelensky and Ukraine under a bus.
@Brian Burns: Its a fascinating report. Cancelled on the Journal for its own personal reasons.
@Brian Burns: Amnesty International has produced dozens of reports about Russian war crimes. The author said she personally investigated when hundreds of tortured bodies turned up in suburban Kyiv after Russia retreated from the area. Just like most people do not blame Palestinians for Israels attacks, we do not spend our time blaming people who are fighting for their right to exist as a free democratic country from a ruthless and proven murderous agressor. More I’m sure could be done but the Russians have shown themselves adept at blowing up their bases so using motility is neccessary.
@Brian Burns: I heard about it on irish media so it’s hardly being kept quiet ?
@Brian Burns: Nail on the head
@Brian Burns: Very surprising considering Am Int is a tool of Western imperialism.
@Des Hanrahan: I think a certain republic planning to run for re-election might be setting stage through the media.
@Brian Burns: It’s all russias fault.
@Brian Burns: Yes,now bombing their own Nuclear Power stations,and demanding the world believe that the Russians attacked their own forces who are occupying said plant.
@Brian Burns: which narrative is that then? The one where a foreign aggressor attacks a sovereign nation and commits multiple war crimes?
@David Mulligan: Perhaps the narrative where the CIA helped to instigate a coup in the Ukraine in 2014, one where there were two Minsk agreements, where Zelensky ran an election promising to avoid war with Russia through negotiation, where the Ukrainian government cut off drinking water to ‘their people’ in Crimea, where Zelensky made extreme far right wing independent militias part of the military. This war was never a case of good versus evil. Anybody who claims that Zelensky is a hero is either uninformed or just plain incorrect. If you state a bullish opinion, it’s no excuse either way.
Why can I comment here but not on the article
reporting the strike on Gaza that killed a child?
@páraicS: typical Journal! They close comments before you can even comment on them these days. I don’t know what would happen if they left them open. Fair enough, if it’s regarding a current or open court case, in the Irish courts, but there’s no reason to do so in the article you mentioned, unless the server would be overwhelmed.
@páraicS: It’s because the pro Israel gang are falsely reporting any criticism as being anti semitic.
Ukraine isn’t going to attack their own Nuclear power plant and put their own population at risk. NATO needs to consider creating a no fly zone over the power plant and send in a peace-keeping force. Last thing we need is another Chernobyl.
@Seán Ó Briain: Yeah? You looking to start a nuclear war and the ending of all life on planet Earth?
@Seán Ó Briain: exactly why would Ukraine hit it, it’s said that Russia had an accident there and a risk of hydrogen leaking.
@Seán Ó Briain: There are many reasons for Ukr to do this, eg Ukraine is losing the war, it appears the US is getting ready to throw Zelensky under the bus, Taiwan incident over-shadowing this conflict etc. This may help to get West onside again – more money, weapons etc. Russia has no incentive tp do this.
Regarding the Ukr regime putting their own population at risk, they’ve been killing their own population in the east for 8+ years. They couldn’t care about their own population. It’s like the British government and the loyalist paramilitaries during the troubles. They were not very fond of their nationalist fellow citizens!
A no-fly zone and a NATO peacekeeping force means the end of the world or the destruction of NATO.
@Joe Bloggs: You’re a Russian bot. Your opinion is irrelevant.
@Kevin Farrell: Keep shilling for Nazi Russia man. There won’t be any nuclear war. Putin knows Russia would be leveled within days if that happened. But there is a legitimate risk of nuclear fallout if they keep putting nuclear powerplants at risk.
@Seán Ó Briain: No, the nazis are the Ukrainians.
@Joe Bloggs: wow. I hear a diet rich in Russian propoganda can be bad for your health. You should diversify.
@Seán Ó Briain: it’s very easy to call people names. In my experience, people do so when their argument is weak or non-existent. The reality of the situation is that a NATO no-fly zone anywhere in Ukraine would ultimately involve NATO forces attacking either Russian air defences in either Ukraine or Russia itself. What would happens after that is entirely unpredictable. Even if Russia were not to fight back, which is highly unlikely, all it takes is a miscalculation for the situation to escalate beyond control, and then we and all other life on Earth are dead – if not immediately from nuclear blasts, but certainly within a year when nuclear winter reduces temperatures worldwide to minus 70 degrees Celsius so that no plant life can grow.
@Eoin Clancy: Not fair man. the vast majority of Ukrainians are neither Nazis nor ultra nationalists. The Azov brigade members may be a different story. Don’t paint an entire population based on extreme tiny minority that I would bet most Ukrainians don’t like or support.
- “The global nuclear watchdog has been trying for weeks to send a team to inspect the plant. Ukraine has so far rejected the efforts, which it says would legitimise Russia’s occupation of the site in the eyes of the international community.”
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is on the south/east bank of the Dnieper river, and Kherson is on the north/west bank. The latter is what the Ukrainians may be able to recapture, but the former is probably as much of a lost cause as Crimea and the Donbas, and Zelenskyy probably knows it but I understand if he doesn’t want to say so publicly.
Still, he should greenlight an inspection, even if the decision to admit the IAEA ultimately lies with the Russian occupying forces. Another Chernobyl isn’t exactly a favourable scenario for anyone.
@David cotter: I’ve no idea what makes you think I’m blaming Zelenskyy. But I did bother to take a look at the map and follow the story. The recapture of Kherson and the defence of Mykolaiv is going to be a herculean task, but Ukraine absolutely have to do it. What’s on the other side of the river is in all likelihood a very different matter. And that’s where this nuclear plant happens to be.
@Mick Tobin: Ukraine are in the preparation phase at the moment taking out logistics and communication lines. Russia have shown their hand with their attacks in the east while Ukraine are keeping their hand close expect to see something soon.
@shligo boyzz: based on what? I really hope you’re right. Putin has been throwing the kitchen sink at this since February, so I really hope the Ukrainians can oust the invaders from their borders.
@shligo boyzz: I know, I’ve been watching this closely since April, fully expecting Kherson to be the next battlefield, since there is no way the country can have any viability without it. They’ve been making sure Russia cannot resupply across the Dnieper – which is a massively wide river incidentally – in order to cut them off at the northern bank. And meanwhile they need to keep the Russians occupied in the east or else they’ll be flocking over there.
The forces in Kherson city are supposedly not the best and not very motivated, and some of them are already surrounded, so you’re right, we’ll be seeing progress soon. But again, regarding the other side of the river, I find it very hard to see Ukraine recapturing that since it can be resupplied from Crimea. Again, the Dnieper river is the deciding factor, and that nuclear plant is unfortunately on the wrong side.
@John Kenny: trust the process it’s slow because sending troops in would be very costly. They are attacking ammo dumps and troop concentrations first.Ukraine have a bridge head over the inulets river and They have a up to a full tank battalion hiding somewhere in Ukraine and also a lot of soldiers where they will be used I’m not sure.
@Mick Tobin: Russians are panicking in Kherson the partisan movement has gone underground and in constant contact with the army also. Who knows maybe ukraines plan is to get as many Russians across the river and then cut them off I really do think something is gonna happen to sum it up Russians won’t be able to supply across the river if the bridges go pontoon bridges will not cut it.
@shligo boyzz: The foreign policy of the US is clear – keep Russia in a state of war for as long as possible to weaken the country. Ukrainian victory is irrelevant. The EU decided to become a vassal state. The slow trickle of arms is deliberate, why didn’t it come all at once, which could have made a difference? The deaths or permanent debilitation of tens of thousands of young people is an inconsequential statistic. Europe will buy LNG gas from US companies, Europe will buy arms from US companies. Ukrainian young men will die. All is good…?
Russia injured a few people and a 14 yr old during “bombardment” is the news and comments open yet is_rael bombs an open air prison kill_ng 15 including a 4 yr old child.
Sad world we live in to allow that happen without condemnation and sanctions.
So the Russians are firing rockets at a nuclear power station which they control and is surrounded by their military. This of course has nothing to do with the upcoming referendum on kherson breaking away from the Ukraine.
@Eoin Clancy: keep thinking that bud
Putin must be stopped before it’s too late..
Putin is getting desperate….this is a cluster Fv€k waiting to happen
Somebody in the Russian inner circle better do something soon….
Shame on Amnesty International after what they said today.
@Damian Moylan: Why? did it upset you to find out what’s going on in east Ukraine is not the fairytale you thought it was.
So Russia shelled their own positions that Ukraine reckons they use for storing ammunition…. right.
This report says: “Russian troops have occupied the Zaporizhzhia plant since the early days of their invasion and Kyiv has accused them of storing heavy weapons there.”
This report also quotes Zelinsky: “Today, the occupiers have created another extremely risky situation for all of Europe: they struck the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant twice. Any bombing of this site is a shameless crime, an act of terror.”
Could we have a fact check please or is this another in the increasingly hysterical allegations of the Russians bombing themselves?
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