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THE LOTTO JACKPOT has been capped at just over €19 million for several weeks now, leaving many wondering why the top prize hasn’t been won in so long.
Firstly, there’s the obvious answer that no one has matched all six winning numbers since early June.
But we can also partially thank this long rollover period on the addition of two extra balls to the draw six years ago.
Since Saturday 2 October, the jackpot has been capped at €19.06 million with additional funds that would have usually gone to the jackpot passed down to the next prize tier. Under Lotto rules, the jackpot is capped once it exceeds the previous record – which was €18.96 million in 2008.
The National Lottery has undergone plenty of changes since it began in 1986, the most important of which is the number of balls in play. When it first began, 36 numbers were in the mix and the odds of matching all six were 1,974,792 to one.
Throughout the years the number of balls went from 39 in 1992, to 42 in 1994, to 45 in 2006, and finally to 47 in 2015. It might not seem like much to add a few extra numbers but it has a huge impact on the chances of scooping the jackpot.
The odds of winning it now are almost 11 million to one.
Premier Lotteries Ireland (PLI) – a majority-owned by a Canadian investment firm – paid €405 million for a 20-year license to operate the National Lottery in 2014. CEO Dermot Griffin said at the time it would bring in changes that would deliver ‘“a more exciting game”.
Speaking to TheJournal, Eamonn Toland of TheMathsTutor.ie said the reason PLI lengthened the odds further in 2015 was to increase the average jackpot size.
“By lengthening the odds, they cut down on the number of jackpots won and there will be more roll-overs. More roll-overs mean that there will be a bigger jackpot, and more attention given to the upcoming draw, resulting in higher sales,” said Toland.
Toland points out that bigger prizes generally attract a bigger pool of players, meaning the more people who buy tickets and the more people you’ll possibly have to share the jackpot with.
“If it’s costing me €2 per line but the jackpot is much bigger you’re getting a better return if you do win but the problem is that you might end up sharing the jackpot because there are more people buying tickets this week – or any given night when there is a high rollover.
“So it doesn’t necessarily make it a better bet when the jackpot is higher if you consider that you might have to share with someone else.”
Toland’s advice for any lotto players this evening is to try to avoid picking the same numbers as someone else, and the best way to do that is to choose randomly or use the quick-pick option.
“Any set of six numbers is just as likely to come out, it doesn’t matter what happened in the past, the machine doesn’t have a memory,” said Toland adding that if you pick a pattern (numerical pattern or a physical pattern on the slip), or use birthday-based numbers, there is a good chance someone else will do the same.
“So if you win, you will be likely to share.”
Despite Ireland not having a lotto jackpot winner since June, tonight’s draw at 8pm won’t be any easier to win than normal. Given the randomness of the game, you sadly still only have a 10,737,573 in one chance of bagging the big prize.
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No way have funds that would usually be added to the jackpot been allocated to the next winning tier… That’s the biggest crock ever. Just look at the prizes for the next winning tiers over the last few weeks. Don’t need to be a math’s wizz to see it doesn’t add up.
@Coli Byrne: yup, criminal case there !
@Coli Byrne: 84k for 2nd prize last week #Scam
@Coli Byrne: It must also be pointed out that the Daily Million jackpot is won less than the actual Lotto jackpot despite having ‘only’ 39 numbers to choose from. Better chance of winning a few bob in the bookies.
@Coli Byrne: Last Saturday the 5 + bonus prize was 193k. Last August the same prize was 53k. So it is almost 4 times larger WITH the rollover and cap than without.
@sean o’dhubhghaill: The minimum lotto jackpot is 2 million every draw. So if it’s capped, where’s the additional jackpot funding every draw since? It’s not even spread across all tiers, just the next winning one according to the spin they put out. And if you go back over the capped weeks payouts, you’ll see accounting Bernie Madoff would have thought was too dodgy to get away with
@Coli Byrne: The current 5 + bonus prize is about 150k higher than the one I checked in August. The lotto I checked (a multi-rollover too) was about 450 000 higher than the previous week. So that is about 3 winners of the 5 + bonus prize. And the week I checked in August had 2 winners of the 5 + bonus. Seems within the range of reasonable figures.
@sean o’dhubhghaill: I still don’t understand why Labour’s Brendan Howlin sanctioned the sale of the Lottery considering how profitable it is. Bonkers.
@Frank Cauldhame: Agreed, though at the time of sale the country was in dire financial straits and desperate for currency. We would have sold Offaly but Cowen objected.
@sean o’dhubhghaill: Tonight no jackpot winner, 3 winners of Match 5 + Bonus, each got €341,375. Just over a million paid out to the next winning tier. All the other tiers are as per usual. So where’s the extra million that would have funded the jackpot? This capping lark only benefits the operator, raking in profits until the jackpot is won.
Side note, I won €9. Spent €12
@Coli Byrne: €1million given out to 5 + bonus. This is €850k above the norm without the cap and roll-over. In ‘normal’ times the jackpot would increase by €450k per draw. And because of the cap this increase is being split between the 5 + bonus. And the increase this week was €850k. And this was split between the 5 + bonus winners.
@Coli Byrne: So you lost €3 instead of winning €9
Why did we sell the lotto to a foreign company ? They were obviously going to shaft us!! Disappointed but not surprised
@Gavin Lynam: Not only that, but it was sold off and ‘licensed’ off when it was turning a profit for the state
@Gavin Lynam: ask the Labour Party that question Brendan Howlin as he sold it to the Canadian pension fund
@Christybhoy67: Why wasn’t it retained to fill the hole AKA The Irish pension fund :/
@Gavin Lynam: we were going to build a children’s hospital with the money. Looks like the construction company won the lotto, several times over
@Jason Stone: because it was left in the hands of a politican who probably hadn’t got a clue how to utilise an asset correctly.
Unclaimed, maybe change to not won?
I definitely think the lotto is ripping us off! 11 million to one chance of winning it, and they cap it at 19 million.
Try and avoid picking the same numbers as Andy else. Sage advice
@Gareth Wogan: ah I’m going to try to pick the same numbers as the winner. I just came up with that idea now.
@Gareth Wogan: Makes sense if you think about it. 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 are as likely to come out as any random series of number but at least 500 people play 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 every week so if you did win with those numbers you’d have to split the jackpot 501 ways which would suck.
It would be much better to choose totally random numbers where you’d be less likely to have to share if they came out.
@Lee King Buckett: yeah fine but if you pick the ones the winner has picked you are guaranteed to win. That’s why my strategy is better than this maths guy
@Augustus hoop: Cunning as a fox Baldrick…
Wonder what Mr Howlin has to say about it?
@Dave Byrne: don’t think he really cares
Odds of nearly eleven million to one and a three Euro stake means the pot needs to be thirty three million or better for it to be a fair punt.
@Steve O’Hara-Smith: I’d love you to explain this one to me….
@Steve O’Hara-Smith: You cant do a 3€ stake. Minimum is 2 lines no plus which is 4€. So a €22mil pot…… With the plus, 6€ for 2 lines in 3 draws….. You can do the maths
Good news for Canadian investors. We should en mass stop playing it until such a time as we can start a new one.
Misleading Headline
Im bored with it at this stage .. OTPP , who own our Lottery , also own Camelot , the UK lottery operator and they do things way differently . Seems if it goes past 4 or 5 rollovers , they have a ‘Lotto must be won ‘ draw and divides the pot between those closest to getting all numbers. This seems much more transparent. I , like many posters here am skeptical about the policy of capping the jackpot & allegedly sharing the revenue with lesser winners. Id love to see the maths there .
Can some one explain why somebody who purchased a ticket on line and has not claimed the money surely the Lottery company knows who they are as you have to log in to purchase so why have they not emailed the persons
just deleted my lotto account online. I will no longer will be helping the Canadian retired teachers
Victor Matheson once said lotteries are a “de facto tax on the poor,”
I personally believe that any money you make has to be earned somehow
Playing the Lotto is a choice. Paying tax isn’t. So stop with the bull cr@p comparisons please.
I got ten euro for 3 numbers one week the next draw you got 9 euro so it’s not being passed down
Why do they cap it of people are still buying tickets each week?
@Al Smith: pure greed.
It should never have been sold off.. do the maths 400 mill for 20 years.. cheap at the price..
@Gary Heslin: and allegedly money ‘ringfenced’ for Childrens hospital … might ho to paying for entrance hall at this stage
So I should just put 2€ on me winning it so, better return
47 numbers in 6 number sequence equates to Over 13 million 900 thousand combinations, the odds are nuts…. Couple that with lower odds on a 5 number sequence and the fact the prizes are baloney, I wouldn’t be caught dead throwing my money away. It’s a scam. Much like club lottos for a 2€ ticket you pick 3 numbers I leave 1€ in the pot and put 25c on the same choices in the bookies to cover any losses, 75c added up over a countless amount of tickets bought! laughing all the way to the algarve……
The odds are so bad ~ It may never be won but Canadian pension funds will win big time ~~ Funny that !
I might have bought a line or two if it was still doing good work around the country but now, never.
1 to 10 million written out is 80 million characters including a space between each number. At single line spacing, that’s nearly 2,500 pages. Imagine paying anything to pick a single word out of five books.
If 5 people reply with a number we should do these 6 numbers for tonights lotto. First I’ll pick 13.
@murt de murty: 24
@murt de murty: 29
@Davy Evans: ElventyToo
@murt de murty: 35
@murt de murty: 69
@murt de murty: eleventhy twelfthy
@murt de murty: tenteen
@Gavin Conran: pi
I always pick the winning numbers that come out in one draw and do them for the next draw……. If they came out once they can come out twice!!…….. NOW please don’t everyone start copying me…. I not want to be sharing my win with all ye when the same lotto numbers come out twice in a row
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