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IT’S BEEN A hell of a week for the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet.
Seven days after the World Health Organisation (WHO) named the new Covid-19 variant of concern ‘Omicron’, the word has travelled around the world as quickly as the virus itself.
In that time, the new variant has been identified across more than 20 countries and in all continents but much is still to be determined about exactly how concerning the new variant is.
What do we know so far and when will we know more?
Without repeating too much of what we’ve previously explained and what you’re likely already aware of, here are some of the basics.
Omicron is a new variant of Covid-19 that is spreading rapidly in parts of South Africa and other parts of southern Africa.
We don’t know for sure where it first mutated, with South African epidemiologists saying it was detected first in Botswana and then in South Africa, where the announcement of the new variant was made on 25 November.
This week, Dutch authorities announced that six days before that on 19 November an individual had tested positive for what also turned out to be the Omicron variant.
Viruses mutating is not unusual. As viruses spread, they develop mutations.
When a viral strain develops a mutation that has an advantage over other strains, such as being easier to transmit, it will likely out-compete and become the dominant strain of the virus.
We’ve seen this happen before when the Alpha variant (unofficially referred to as the UK variant) out-competed the original variant of Covid-19 to become dominant in most places.
Later this year the Delta variant (unofficially referred to as the India variant) became the dominant strain globally in June 2021.
Both the Alpha and Delta variants sparked concern because they were more transmissible than the strains which came before. If a Covid strain is more transmissible it can obviously lead to more infections and could put extra pressure on health systems.
In the case of Omicron, we cannot yet say for sure that it is more transmissible, although the early indications from tracking in South Africa suggest that it is.
In the areas of South Africa where Omicron is growing the R number is at about 1.93, higher than 1.47 for South Africa as a whole.
There are various reasons why that may be the case, such as age demographics, but the speed of the growth of the virus is also suggestive that Omicron is more transmissible.
To bring some clarity to the situation, the WHO has said that it expects to be able to provide details of the transmissibility of Omicron “within days”.
The primary reason for concerns about Omicron have not been related to transmissibility alone, however.
Experts say what is particularly concerning is the number of mutations in the virus, making it the “most divergent” of the variants since the original SARS‑CoV‑2 virus that emerged in Wuhan.
Specifically, there are several mutations to the spike protein, the area of the virus that is used to enter the body’s cells and the area on which vaccines act.
The number of mutations could potentially mean that the variant may be better at evading the immunity responses provided by either vaccines or previous recovery from Covid.
Again, whether or not this is the case is still being investigated.
To do this, scientists are testing blood from people who are fully immunised against a synthetic version of the Omicron variant that is grown in a lab.
Results from these tests may not be available until later next week.
Last night, a preliminary study by South African scientists suggested that the variant was three times more likely to cause reinfection among people who previously had Covid-19.
The study is not yet peer-reviewed but is suggestive of Omicron’s ability to evade immunity. The authors emphasised however that the study did not have information on individuals’ vaccination status and therefore could not assess to what extent Omicron evades vaccine-induced immunity.
Other factors
Speaking in Dublin about Omicron yesterday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said it may be two weeks before scientists have a clearer picture of three important factors relating to the variant,”how infectious it, how virulent and to what degree will the new variant escape vaccines”.
If Omicron is sufficiently mutated to reduce vaccine effectiveness, current vaccines could adapted to better fight the virus.
Moderna has already said it is working on an Omicron-specific vaccine, as is US rival Pfizer, with suggestions that they could be ready in 100 days.
The European Medicines Agency has said it could theoretically approve the adapted vaccines in three to four months.
“Were there a need to change the existing vaccines, we could be in a position to have those approved within three to four months,” the EMA’s Emer Cooke told a European Parliament committee.
The other question that needs to be answered is whether Omicron is more or less virulent than previous strains, i.e. whether it leads to more or less severe disease.
Again, it is too soon to draw any conclusions on this.
On Sunday, a South African doctor said she had treated about 30 cases of Omicron and had only encountered “mild symptoms” in these patients.
The scientific community has warned against drawing conclusions based on this testimony because the patients were mostly young and therefore less at risk of serious Covid.
In fact, as most people are aware after almost two years into this pandemic, the Covid cases are indeed mild in the vast majority of people.
The fact that some Omicron cases are almost mild is merely reflective of this fact.
Dear Media
— Michael Mina (@michaelmina_lab) November 30, 2021
Please stop repeating anecdotes that physicians have seen mild cases of Omicron
The VAST majority of COVID cases of all variants are mild. The problem is a fraction are not, and when cases pile up, the fraction adds to a lot of hospitalization, death, and long-COVID
Speaking this week, the WHO’s Dr Maria Van Kerkhove said they have seen reports of Omicron cases which “go from mild disease all the way to severe disease”.
If Omicron turns out to be more transmissible and of similar or greater severity than previous strains than this would be bad news, but if it were the case Omicron was more transmissible but milder this would of course potentially be good news.
How widespread is Omicron?
Omicron has been confirmed in over 20 countries and counting, but the question as to whether it will overtake Delta as the dominant global strain remains to be seen.
Previous Covid variants such Mu and Lambda did not manage to overtake Delta but the spread of Omicron in the Gauteng province in South Africa suggests it could.
Yesterday, the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) said that if the pattern in South Africa is reproduced in Europe, Omicron could make up the majority of Covid cases within a few months.
However, Delta was never very present in South Africa, so a comparison with Europe is hard to draw at this stage.
In Scotland, there has been some evidence of community transmission where 13 Omicron cases have been confirmed, some of which had no link to travel or other cases.
Ireland confirmed its first case of Omicron on Wednesday, in a person who had last week travelled from southern Africa.
Dr Cillian De Gascun of the National Virus Reference Laboratory said in a technical briefing that there were was ”no evidence” yet of community transmission in this country.
He said that for Omicron to become dominant in Ireland the variant must have a transmission advantage and socialisation for this advantage to play out.
If this were to happen, De Gascun said that “generally speaking” this might happen over roughly 4-8 weeks, but that again this is uncertain.
“We still don’t really have as much definitive evidence of its transmission advantage, although the data from South Africa is certainly suggestive,” he said.
What we know from previous experiences is if a variant gets into the country over a period of time and reaches a certain level, ultimately there will be a tipping point at which stage it will begin to become dominant and generally speaking this takes place over a period of 4-8 weeks.
“Obviously it has to reach that critical mass first, it has to get out into the community and there has to be a level of community transmission and at the moment we don’t see any evidence at least of community transmission of this variant in Ireland.”
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All well and good, but it will only work if people want to work. The only reason somebody should be out of work today is if they are physically or mentally unable to.
@Coco86: Social welfare should be capped per area. No square kilometre of the country should be allowed more than 8% of its people on the dole.
@specialsue: that’s ambitious. Not a huge amount going on in Frenchpark.
@specialsue: well that’s the most moronic statement I’ll read all day. And how exactly does this work? First come first served and good luck to everyone else?
@specialsue: I have heard some ridiculous statements but that has to be the worst.think about it again and come back in and apologize.
@Coco86: depends on the work, apprenticeships good , minimum wage jobs in Tesco not good.
@Hardly Normal: well then get an apprenticeship.
@Eon Cocker: specialsue specialises in these type of comments. Reactionary and populist sound bites.
@Hardly Normal: getting of the ar5e to begin with, good
@Coco86: are you hiring?
@Hardly Normal: And whats wrong with working anywhere on minimum wage while looking for an apprenticeship?
@marian: I am actually, are you looking?
@Coco86: yeah, can you please give me the address so i can come there and talk with a manager also please give me your name so i can say I spoke with you about a job position… thanks!
@marian: I’m currently recruiting for a number of live roles based in the South East. Register with one of the three recruitment firms in Waterford, put coco in the subject line and ill find you :)
@Coco86: so cool man i am actually from waterford, just give me the business address and your name i can meet you today at one of your recruitment agencies.
@marian: I’ve just told you what to Do, but you can have the last word, I’m quite busy – at work – you know what that is? Have fun pal x
@Coco86: ok I just did, I’ve put coco in the email subject can you please reply back to me!? Thanks!
@Coco86: you can bring a horse to a water trough but ……..
@Coco86: still waiting!
Absolute rubbish I was unemployed and I was given every opportunity and help to find employment, As much as I enjoy slagging the government at every available chance, I was allowed do courses free of charge and have another diploma under my belt thanks to my local employment center. I work for myself now.
@Graham Light: Well said Graham and fair play. I was out of full time work for almost three years during the recession. Re-skilled in college now im on a completely different career path. All these opportunities are still there but most dont want them. Serious review of the social welfare system for those who can but wont work would be a better use of time
@Graham Light: agreed and well done, and i wish you the best of luck. I can only imagine that these 8k out of work must be the sc&mbags who have no intention of working and make a few bob out of peddling dope, They should be made sweep the strees
@Joe Mc: “peddling dope”
What’s this Compton?
@Mark McDermott: Have a walk around parts of our beautiful capital at night and you may as well be in Compton. I went to get milk the other day for my Dad and counted 6 needles on the street, its a 5 minute walk. I am very proud of where my family come from, infact its our family home for generation’s but its not a nice place to walk around at night anymore.
@Graham Light: the only point I’ll differ with you is you have to remember these younger people came of working age when there was no work. My belief is if your not working by the age of 17-18 you get into a rot which is hard to break
@Graham Light: Well said Graham, Our social welfare is the problem, it should be gradually reduced for people able to work, no excuses for not working in the current environment, this throwing free money at people that are able but unwilling to work has to stop.
@David Clarke: I agree with you David its not easy but its not impossible either. I know I was unemployed feeling low, unable to buy the things I wanted, feeling like a drain on society but all I am saying is there is so many courses available and they are free.
@Graham Light: agree I was on the dole also and did a course didn’t mind keeps the head right.
@Graham Light: And here’s another false name no profile FG’er praising the government and himself.
@Dave Doyle: thanks for the heads up
@Dave Doyle: I have been called alot of things during my life but a FG’er thats a first, however your entitled to your opinion and in relation to praising myself, I have ever right too, I worked hard in my course and I am proud of myself.
@Dave Doyle: Don’t see your contribution to the discussion. Aside from the major problems with this government nobody can say they dont have opportunities to better themselves via education. Do what you like then emigrate or stay or whatever. But it’s a bit rich to have a pop at someone for taking the opportunities, and yes fair play to successive governments for providing said opportunities. But I’d imagine you just like complaining, here – have some free money
Social welfare has this country ruined.
“Innocent people are dying in the streets” as a result of homelessness.
SW is a career choice now. It’s the same standard of living as those on low income wages so what’s the point in working?
@Pajo Mata: It can also ruin the chances of healthy young people receiving it long term as they don’t learn to stand on their own feet, thereby missing out on the great opportunities that life has to offer.
@Pajo Mata: who has died on the streets as a result of homelessness ?? Proof please……I think you will find they died of something other than homelessness….
@Pajo Mata: exactly
@Gerry Cummins: Hmmm being homeless, can cause a person to lose all self worth, I don’t blame homeless people wanting to drink alcohol all day if it numbs the pain, if it makes them blackout, anything to escape the absolute misery of homelessness. I would say that the people who died on the streets homelessness was a contributing factor
Can’t work won’t work
@John Swan: more like can work won’t work
@Dave Byrne: Too true
@John Swan:
We should do the same as Italy is going to do: refuse 3 job offers in 2 years, lose your dole.
Plus, welfare should always be cut when unemployment is low, not increase it. But no political party in Ireland backs that idea despite being warned about it by the OECD.
So when you hit a recession, and one is soon coming, you’ll have billions more in payouts.
If there is easy welfare money and you’re better off being on the dole than working some jobs, then there’s no incentive to get a job. Oh, and stop importing low-skilled and unskilled people, which is bad in all sorts of ways.
I fear it will never change no matter who’s in government.
Never, ever before has there been SO many Access, training, Vtos, BTEI, Return to work, learning- you name it, initiatives. .if somebody is able to work but now unemployed, it should be mandatory that they are in some Training/Upskilling course whilst receiving Social Welfare. We are fast becoming a nation of ‘ entitlers’ whereby we expect SO much for free but dont ask us for anything in return. Its v obvious- and visible, esp in Summertime when one wants certain jobs done- that there are Many people on SW and yet ABLE to do jobs on the side (with accompanying Cash payments..) . Too many excuses.
@Margate: We are entitled to free housing, social welfare, education and healthcare but we don’t want to work for it…. this BS has to stop
@Margate: they get their payments reduced if they don’t take part in training and are not seeking work. Plus they are made to work up to 30 hours per week in various schemes until they find employment. It’s not a free ride anymore.
@Margate: where do you work?
@Tatjana Kytmannow: what about you, where do you work?
@marian: I work, and damn hard for sure. Whats with ” Where do you work” ??? Why?? And yourself? Never ask a personal question that you wouldn’t be willing to answer yourself..
Unless you are physically unable to work, there is pretty much limited or no excuse not be working these days, especially under that age. Lazy a-holes who seem to think the SW is some sort of a career these days. Get up off your holes and pay your own way – that includes thinking you are “entitled” to a home also. Stop expecting hand-outs! Time for a radical overhaul of the SW system
@SkylineSi: if you live in the sticks where there are literally 3 shops and 5 pubs, all which are owned by people who hire only their own children, you have to travel miles of rural road to get to the next town…. it can be quite hard. That’s why I’ve gone back to education.
Start popping out the babies, set for life, no need to ever work a day again
I heard of someone last week who is unemployed and a course came up he was really interested in, But he wasn’t eligible because he wasn’t unemployed long enough.. Make sense of that.
At least those who are under 26 now have much greater opportunities to find work than back in the 80’s and 90’s where your options were the boat to England or get to the USA and work illegally.
Online education and work is possible also.
Unless you’re incapable of working due to illness, disability or homelessness then there’s very little excuse.
@Dotty Dunleary: exactly.when I left school in the eighties there was nothing.one way ticket to London was the only option,and it was the best education I probably ever received as I arrived with about 100punts and a couple of phone numbers and it has stood to me since.
So the counties with the largest populations have the highest numbers of unemployed and the counties with the smallest populations have the lowest numbers. Who would have thought it?
@Earth Traveller: That would rather suggest that it’s the natural percentage of people unable to work… if it was social or educational reasons, different areas would have different proportions
Longford is getting over 1000 jobs with the new center parcs development. The county has 4,000 unemployed.
Can we expect that the unemployment numbers for Longford will be down to 3,000 next year?
@John Mulligan: Doubt it, you will see a population increase of about 500 – 600 though
This is also the age group struggling the most with depression and having to endure the most difficult working conditions. It’s sad to see such animosity towards those young people who are finding it difficult to get a start in life, the stick approach to cutting off payments is more likely to lead to a very dark place than it is to rolling up the sleeves and magically turning into a productive member of society as some seem to think.
@Rochelle: your softly softly approach was tested for years and it does not work.nothing better than reducing their ‘entitlements’ to focus minds.
Is this 8k including all the so “employed” people on schemes? Unemployment is still very high, they just jig the numbers to suit their agenda.
I’d say it’s a lot more than 8k, official gov figures and all that!
Have a 10% reduction in benefits each week…
it should be onely for 3 years after that should cover rent paid to council or landlord no cash same utilities and card by food onely
There are plenty of jobs out there problem is most are part time or temporary contracts with young people earning same as those on dole but without any assistance ie housing, medical cards etc
And there it goes again. Fyi, all the people saying that it is a lifestyle choice; these people came of working age in the depth of the recession. They will be made to do training or find employment, or they are getting their payments reduced.
Doesn’t matter how much money you throw at this issue, there’s always been this section of society you are basically not only unemployed, but actually unemployable. You could start up a new training program for them but whats the point ? Throwing good money after bad. It was the same during the so-called boom years, the years of ‘full employment’. We still had an unemployment rate that never fell below 4%.
@Tommy Roche: it is probably safe to say most of these longterm unemployed youths are likely suffering from addiction issues too. Who wants to hire an heroin addict that will most likely miss work, or steal from work because of their addiction?
Foot up the Aras
How many of these have since participated in the YESS scheme?
Actually how many youths under 26 yrs are on activation schemes.When people on activation schemes are included in unemployment figures ,it adds 3% to unemployment rate.(CSO)
Our government is taking from the pockets of those who are prepared to work and giving the proceeds to those who couldn’t be bothered. That’s not sustainable or right.
Cut their dole to 30euro a week and then watch them pull their fingers out and get work. There is absolutely no excuse not to work.
The government needs to make it less appealing to stay at home. I’m part of the squeezed middle who pay for it.
Some people in this country on the dole live better than people like me working a 48hr week. Sick of it is an understatement. Lazy bees. Exceptions of course for people with disabilities and illnesses. But having a rake of kids is not an illness.
I once lived in a inner city suburb where the majority of these young people come from. Its heartbreaking to see these young people waste on the dole with the girls having babies and boys selling drugs (part time). How can people drown in a country with a thousand opportunities for anyone to excel??? Why are people coming from thousands of kilometers with no qualification and no English yet they find an economic space to meaningfully exist in while someone born and bred here drown in the midst of plenty???What is responsible for people in their 20′s almost giving up in life????
have your say