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People opposed to Covid measures are using incomplete CSO figures to claim suicides are rising. File photo. Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie

No evidence pandemic has caused increase in suicides despite 'persistent' online claims

Researchers say inaccurate claims about rising suicide rates can harm vulnerable people.

SPECULATION THAT THE Covid-19 pandemic – and in particular the measures implemented to stem the spread of the virus – has led to an increase in suicide deaths has persisted despite there being no evidence to support the claims.

Unfounded conjecture surrounding rising suicide rates remains common on social media in many countries, including Ireland – particularly in anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine Facebook, Telegram and WhatsApp groups. 

The most recent Central Statistics Office (CSO) quarterly statistics are also being touted as evidence of a spike in suicides despite the data being largely in-line with previous, pre-2020 trends.

In the latest ‘vital statistics’ update, the CSO notes that recorded suicides were 192% higher in quarter two of 2021 than they were in Q2 of 2020.

However, the CSO has attached a major caveat to the 2020 figures, due to the fact that Covid-19 restrictions on Coroners’ Courts holding public hearings at the start of the pandemic meant the recorded number of suicides was artificially low that quarter. 

In Q2 of each of the five years before the pandemic, the number of suicide deaths registered was in the range 63-120. Due to the underreporting in 2020, the number fell to just 25. In 2021 it moved back in line with previous years (73 were recorded) when the restrictions on Coroners’ Courts were relaxed. 

The National Suicide Research Foundation says this indicates a return to previous levels of registered suicide deaths, not an increased level of suicide.

The independent research unit investigates the causes of suicide and self-harm in Ireland. It is a registered charity and receives the majority of its funding from the HSE.  

It must also be noted that Ireland’s method for recording suicide deaths means the figures for 2020 won’t be finalised until October/ November this year and the figures for 2021 won’t be finalised until the end of 2023.

The NSRF head of research, Dr Paul Corcoran, says the foundation has picked up on inaccurate claims about rising suicide rates throughout the pandemic and noted that the unfounded online speculation can be harmful to those at risk of suicide.

“Soon after the onset of the pandemic there were many claims related to an anticipated increase in suicidal behaviour. These claims, and their reinforcement, risk impacting negatively on vulnerable members of the population. 

The reliable suicide data that has emerged over the course of the pandemic has shown that most countries have seen no increase in suicide deaths and some have seen a decrease. However, an interest in making claims about possible increases in suicide has persisted. 

The foundation’s chief scientist, Professor Ella Arensman, noted that some media outlets can also cause significant harm by sensationalising suicide stories and by jumping to conclusions based on incomplete statistics.

“People who are currently experiencing depression, they will not question the statements in the media.”

Arensman warned that when people in a vulnerable position see headlines indicating a link between the pandemic and a surge in suicides “they could take that for granted and it can negatively impact on their current situation. That doesn’t give hope.” 

Corcoran, who is also an epidemiologist, also noted that the assertions regularly come with cherry-picked statistics.

“Interestingly, the CSO Q1 2021 data gave a figure of 36 suicides, half the number of 72 in Q1 2020. These figures could have been used to suggest that the pandemic was associated with a large decrease in suicide deaths. However, there seems to be more interest in making claims about potential increases.”

How are the CSO stats recorded?

The procedures that have to be followed before a death is determined as a suicide in Ireland means that there is a time lag between a suicide occurring and it being recorded in the statistics.

The cause of death in suspected suicide cases is reached through a coroner’s inquest, which is not held until at least six weeks after the person’s death, and inquests can take several months to reach a verdict. 

Registration of a suicide death happens soon after the inquest and the CSO quarterly figures represent the number of suicide deaths registered in the quarter. 

Therefore, the quarterly figures strongly correlate with the number of inquests of suicide deaths that were held, not the number of suicide deaths that occurred. The deaths in question usually occurred approximately six months earlier.

This is why curbs on Coroners Courts in 2020 caused such a dramatic dip in the Q2 2020 figure.

The CSO told The Journal this impact was felt from March 2020 onwards. It noted that it provided a detailed caveat on the matter in the Q2 2020 release and also mentioned it again in the Q2 2021 release.

The CSO releases mortality data, including suicide statistics, in three different stages. First, there is the provisional stage which provides the number of deaths based on year of registration. The data remains provisional for around two years, so the statistics from Q2 2020 and 2021 are still provisional. 

Next, there is an official stage which revises the numbers based on year of occurrence, and finally, the figures are revised again to include late registrations.

There are usually notable changes between provisional and official suicide figures, with the official figures almost always higher. 

The official annual stats are published about 20 months after any given year’s end. Further to this around 15% of suicide deaths are registered too late to be included in these official figures. 

“Unfortunately, it is necessary to wait three-four years to get a close reflection of the number of suicide deaths in Ireland,” Dr Corcoran said.

Real-time data

The NSRF operates the Suicide and Self-Harm Observatory (SSHO) which gathers real-time suicide and self-harm data from Cork and Kerry.

The observatory is provided with an update on suspected suicide cases in the counties every two weeks, giving it a picture of the situation long before the CSO data.

Professor Arensman said there are indications of a slight increase in self-harm in the most recent data from Cork and Kerry, with people who are not receiving the face-to-face mental health support they require suffering.

She added that this is in-line with international statistics in other high-income countries where slight increases in suicide rates have been recorded in recent months. 

“For people with mild anxiety with mild depression this [online supports/telemedicine] has been shown to be sufficient. But for people with severe depression, severe anxiety, and other severe mental health conditions, we don’t yet have proven effectiveness,” Arensman said. 

She added that real-time data on suspected suicides across Ireland would be hugely beneficial for intervention and prevention purposes.

Mental health supports

While there is no evidence that the pandemic has led to an increase in suicides, organisations that provide mental health support have noticed a shift in the demand for their services, particularly at times of uncertainty regarding restrictions.  

The ISPCC said it has experienced increases in contacts to Childline at particular points but the listening service has not experienced an overall increase over the duration of the pandemic to date.

“When restrictions were first announced, children and young people were among the first to be impacted. In the week in which schools were closed, our listening service experienced an increase in online contacts, calls and texts,” an ISPCC spokesperson said.   

The period of March to April 2020 saw the number of visitors to Childline’s website jump by over 50% compared with the same period in 2019.

Pieta House said overall demand for Pieta’s services increased by 22% from 2020 to 2021. The number of under 18s seeking support increased by 42% last year and more than doubled on the same time the year before. 

The charity was prompted to launch a recruitment campaign to find additional therapists to meet the demand. 

“Our services have been needed more than ever, and an increase in the volume of therapists with specific experience to deal with our increasing younger age group became a priority for us in the summer of 2021,” a Pieta spokesperson said.

Youth organisation Spunout said there were “big spikes” in demand in October and late December 2020 that coincide with increasing Covid restrictions. 

“In terms of negative effects on mental health, or an increase in the need for mental health supports, we can highlight that service demand increased for us during times of pandemic uncertainty,” a spokesperson noted.

The traffic to Spunout’s website has doubled since the start of the pandemic and its most read articles are on self harm, the effects of social media on mental health, and depression. 

The Samaritans said it hasn’t seen a huge increase in demand as its service has always been very busy, carrying out approximately half a million calls per year.

“What we did notice was that calls were longer for many people as callers struggled to cope with Covid and it’s restrictions – leading to more loneliness, isolation and causing family and relationship issues,” the charity said. 

The HSE provides advice on how to mind your mental health during the coronavirus outbreak on its Your Mental Health website.

Need help? Support is available:

  • Samaritans – 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.ie
  • Pieta House – 1800 247 247 or email mary@pieta.ie (suicide, self-harm)
  • Aware – 1800 80 48 48 (depression, anxiety)
  • Teen-Line Ireland – 1800 833 634 (for ages 13 to 18)
  • Childline – 1800 66 66 66 (for under 18s)
  • SpunOut – 01 675 3554 or email hello@spunout.ie 

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    Mute NeilGoochFerriter
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    Oct 7th 2017, 10:31 PM

    A lot of young lads dream of being a pilot,
    I certainly did but i did not have 100k to try it out!
    A good friend is a pilot with a large airline and i get such enjoyment hearing his stories.
    A little jealous ill admit!

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    Mute Joe Conlon
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:14 PM

    @NeilGoochFerriter: what kind of money can they expect to earn when they qualify?

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    Mute TheGrey Gimp
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:15 PM

    @NeilGoochFerriter: why don’t the airlines do what the military do. Train you up on contact. If you don’t like it than you have to buy yourself out

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    Mute Martin M
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    Oct 8th 2017, 1:45 AM

    @Joe Conlon: 180 K it says in article

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    Mute James2015
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    Oct 8th 2017, 6:44 PM

    @Joe Conlon: 60k

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    Mute ForeverFeel1ng
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    Oct 24th 2017, 7:41 PM

    @TheGrey Gimp: That’s what Aer Lingus does. Ryanair are too cheap to even think about training staff.

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    Mute David Huston
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    Oct 7th 2017, 10:38 PM

    A profession likened to a bus driver by a certain so-called business mogul, He should realize that without minions he could never get his S class washed.

    118
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    Mute Stan
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:52 PM

    As we spend fortunes educating people in third level colleges and often those graduates gratitude is to F off abroad and not contribute back to society. Why can’t the state do deal with pilot training colleges and pay for non academic young people and older who have great interest in becoming a pilot or even truck drivers etc since they spend 50-100 thousand on each graduate anyway. Why can’t social welfare or FAS etc first give aptitude test and send those who pass to learn to fly as those new pilots would pay high income tax back to the state unlike the fortunes spent on nurses and GPs etc who flee Ireland as soon as they qualify after we financed their costly education. Surely the state could help train the many non academic long term unemployed to become pilots as there will be big demand for pilots in Ireland for decades to come and all over the world hundreds of thousands needed over the next decade

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    Mute Graham Vincent
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    Oct 8th 2017, 12:34 AM

    @Stan: You’ve used the phrase “non-academic” twice, how easy do you imagine it is to qualify and work as a pilot?

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    Mute Avina Laaf
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    Oct 8th 2017, 1:13 AM

    @Stan:
    Don’t fall into the trap of believing Michael O’Leary when he claims it’s such an easy job even a monkey could do it.
    It’s unlikely that anyone who’s ‘non academic’ could ever become a pilot given the amount of study involved.

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    Mute John Considine
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    Oct 8th 2017, 9:15 AM

    @Stan: sure don’t the pilots f-off abroad every day, but they come home to their mammies every night.

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    Mute Geoff Blennerhassett
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    Oct 7th 2017, 10:19 PM

    Come on! Get the facts right. 100 hours in 28 days/900 a year block time. 60 hours in 7 days/110 in 14 and 198 in 28 days for duty hours are the limits. This information is widely available and 18 hours a week is rubbish.

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    Mute Christy Nolan
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    Oct 8th 2017, 12:51 AM

    @Geoff Blennerhassett:
    Comments are closed due to ongoing disagreements with the journals point of view

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Oct 8th 2017, 2:26 AM

    @Geoff Blennerhassett: Thanks for that clarification.. I was curious as the 18 hours was obviously rubbish or the long haul pilots would have to wait a week to come home again,…..

    I wonder if the difference in figures is based upon air time excluding taxi time, gate to gate times and briefing to debriefing times and standby times…. there are really so many ways to count the times that confusion is bound to happen – so thanks for the clarification on the 18 hours thing,

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    Mute Micheál Ryan
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    Oct 8th 2017, 3:44 AM

    @Geoff Blennerhassett:

    I think this 18 hr/week bs came from MOL last week in a press conference? He’s taken his calculator and divided 900 hours by 52 weeks in a year…about 17.3 hrs. Now he’s conveniently forgotten 6 weeks annual leave. Plus the fact a pilot will have 8 days off a month on average which in total means they have about 20 weeks a year off. Now 900/32 weeks is closer to a normal working week. Maybe 30 hours flying and 2 hours duty before/after a flight brings the total closer to a forty hour week…Don’t always believe statistics…

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    Mute Shane Corry
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:34 PM

    The fact is that 10-20+ years ago the airlines used to cover all or most of the training costs whereas now it almost always falls to the pilots and their families, both the cost of getting their CPL (commercial pilot’s license) and then also most of the cost of getting the type-rating needed to fly a particular type of aircraft.

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    Mute Niall Lonergan
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    Oct 7th 2017, 10:44 PM

    Won’t be too long and a lot of aircraft will be flying themselves.

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    Mute Paddy Hayden
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:03 PM

    @Niall Lonergan: I remember the advent of the computer age , we would never need paper again , paper production has increased by 400% in the last 40 years .
    Pilotless drones require a large team of operators , and they don’t even carry people .
    So I would say the theory of not needing pilots will be the same as the paper theory .

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    Mute Robert T Pooner
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:14 PM

    @Paddy Hayden: Then they’re not pilotless drones, you silly moo.

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    Mute Paddy Hayden
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:20 PM

    @Robert T Pooner: It’ll never happen , there will always be the need for human intervention , whether you want to call them pilotless , unmanned or autonomous the need for a human failsafe will always be there .

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    Mute Robert T Pooner
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:32 PM

    @Paddy Hayden: I don’t think the need will be there but the desire may be. Anyway, once this hyperloop thing is up and running we won’t need to fly. Saul goodman

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    Mute Paddy Hayden
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:49 PM

    @Robert T Pooner: I don’t think I’ll be around to see that .
    The progress of the artillery man in the war of the worlds springs to mind .

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Oct 8th 2017, 2:30 AM

    @Niall Lonergan: by in large planes do fly themselves but the pilots are there to program the computers and take over when things go wrong – but there are issues still over who is flying the plane, the computer, the auto pilot or the human being…. I do not believe that we will have pilotless planes in the foreseeable future – the driverless car and bus and tram and train and even horse drawn carriage have not yet been overly successful (although it is hard to imagine the need for cyclist free bicycles…)

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    Mute Peter Jo
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    Oct 8th 2017, 3:15 AM

    @Niall Lonergan: that don’t mean I am getting on

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    Mute Malachy
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    Oct 8th 2017, 12:45 AM

    I know many many pilots. First there professional and responsible and it’s beating into them on day one. Second they love it, and would do nothing else. Ryanair just take advantage of the second fact.

    34
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    Mute Geoff Blennerhassett
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    Oct 7th 2017, 10:20 PM

    Come on! Get the facts right. 100 hours in 28 days/900 a year block time. 60 hours in 7 days/110 in 14 and 198 in 28 days for duty hours are the limits.

    24
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    Mute Kerry Blake
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    Oct 7th 2017, 10:31 PM

    @Geoff Blennerhassett: Repeating the same claim twice doesn’t make it right…….

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    Mute Malachy
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    Oct 8th 2017, 12:37 AM

    @Geoff Blennerhassett: hang on need a calculator. Go again

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    Mute Niall Finucane
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    Oct 8th 2017, 1:51 AM

    @Malachy: he’s totally correct. Those are the limits and they do not include simulator, safety meetings, computer based training, medical checks, travel to and from base or travel to outstations, arriving to work an hour and half before departure, delays, turnarounds, post flight duties. 18 hours a week is total and utter shite. What is true is that you can put a maximum of 900hrs (and I think that’s 1000 in some places) into your logbook, which is pushback to on stand.

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    Mute Ray Ronan
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    Oct 8th 2017, 1:22 PM

    @Geoff Blennerhassett: Well said. You know more than the journalist who wrote this.

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Oct 8th 2017, 2:36 AM

    The average school leaving kid does not have the money to obtain a commercial pilots licence… and working to pay for it takes years… The supply of trained pilots from air forces around the world is limited and the demand for commercial aviation pilots now exceeds this – the older way whereby an airline would sponsor a pilot training in return for contracted hours is no longer appealing to the low cost carriers – so there will continue to be a shortage of pilots… but the solution could be in the hands of the aircraft manufacturers – it is in their interest to see that there are properly trained pilots to fly their products, so maybe the industry needs to start looking at Boeing or Airbus for pilot training – then Michael O’ Leary could simply ring Mr Boeing and ask for another 120 pilots or defer the order on the next 120 B737s

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    Mute Rory J Leonard
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    Oct 8th 2017, 11:22 AM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh:

    Not a bad suggestion!

    The direction Plane Pilot market is going, vis a vis supply and demand, how long before premiership style transfer fees start to apply to bring the best and most experienced to enable Global leaders in Aviation continue with expansion plans.

    No bank is going to advance €100 k to someone just out of college to train as a pilot!

    As Niall says, the solution lies within the airline industry for the massive investment required to be coughed up.

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    Mute Nurse on call
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    Oct 8th 2017, 12:21 AM

    It’s a bit like nursing… the dream to help people but I can’t because the system is in tatters. Same as teaching…pupils with no respect for the teacher. The public who have no respect when drunk for out A and E Team. We can all complain but best just to get in with it.

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    Mute Noel James Doherty
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    Oct 7th 2017, 11:57 PM

    You ever been in a cockpit before Joey, no sir I’ve never been in a plane before. You ever seen a grown man naked?

    30
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    Mute Kevin Phipps
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    Oct 8th 2017, 11:17 AM

    Journalist- please run your article through the fact check department in journal.ie before publication

    60 duty hours in 7 days

    100 flying hours in 28 days

    “The lack of new pilots come despite those in the jobs commanding earnings of up to €180,000 a year, while restrictions on those flying within Europe limit pilots to a maximum of 18 hours a week.”

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    Mute General Shit Talking
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    Oct 8th 2017, 2:00 PM

    @Kevin Phipps: Journalist… “Person who copies and pastes from other sources”.

    FTFY

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    Mute Jon Rodgers
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    Oct 8th 2017, 1:48 PM

    18 hours a week? I must tell my employer straight away that they’re illegally working me!
    I’ll give an example . Last week I signed on for duty at 0530. I flew a short haul flight and back to home base. Finished work at 1545.
    Total time “in the air” was 6 hours 15 mins. But I actually worked for 10 hours 15 mins.
    But only the 6 hours 15 mins counted towards the fabled “18 hours per week”. The rest goes uncounted.
    Next week, I will fly a 16 hour flight, and after 48 hours in a hotel, fly another 16 hours back home. That’s 32 hours of flight time (plus duty time) in 4 days…. A lot longer than the mythical “18 hours a week”.
    And after 2 days off… do it all again.

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    Mute Spailpín
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    Oct 8th 2017, 10:33 AM

    What angers me most is that having invested up to 100K in your piloting career your cant even ofset it against income tax.

    12
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    Mute Dave Byrne
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    Oct 8th 2017, 2:20 PM

    While the cost can be prohibitive for a lot of people when they see €100k up front cost,The training can be done on a modular basis all the lads I know working for Ryanair did their training while holding down a full time job.
    Ok it will take longer to obtain the licence were as the lads doing it on a full time basis can have it done within 2 years,As for the likes of Ryanair the pilots are paid on block hours.
    So they only get paid from gear up to gear down not taxi to the stands or RWY threshold or turnarounds, Also it’s early starts getting up at 4am for a 6am departure etc.

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    Mute Dave Byrne
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    Oct 8th 2017, 2:22 PM

    My advice to anyone who wants to train as a pilot is go for a spin in a Cessna etc to see if you like it,And if you do then do the class 1 medical(Commercial pilot ) to see if anything comes up that could disqualify you from flying.

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    Mute Anthony R Fildes
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    Oct 8th 2017, 8:30 PM

    FFS Journal fact check !!! Ask someone in the business instead of assuming O’Leary’s statements are accurate… €180,000 a year ? Maybe, after you’ve reached the top of a THIRTY FIVE YEAR pay scale..

    New cadets or direct entrants can expect poor pay, long hours and an exhausting schedule thanks to the publics insatiable demand for low fares and Mr O’Leary’s pathological need to fulfil it.

    3
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