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CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER Dr. Tony Holohan has told the government that up to 10% of the population, some 500,000 people, may have had Covid-19 last week.
The estimate is contained in a 6 January letter from Holohan to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and is based on the incidence of the virus in the population and “constraints on testing”.
The letter records that there were 136,960 reported cases in the week to 5 January 2022, giving rise to a 14-day incidence rate that is 4,450 per 100,000. The highest ever incidence rate and almost three times higher than in January 2021.
“Given the 7-day cumulative incidence of 2,876 per 100,000, allowing for constraints on testing and undetected infections, the likely population prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection is 5.7%- 9.6%; between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 of the population are likely to be infected,” Holohan says.
The letter records that positivity rates for testing was above 60% for the week and that the test and trace system was “at surge capacity and under severe pressure”.
The scale of infection estimated has been accelerated by the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which NPHET estimates accounts for 96% of new cases.
Europe is now the epicentre of the Omicron variant, with the World Health Organisation saying today that over half of the people in Europe are projected to catch Omicron by March.
Concern
Holohan says in his letter that the overall Covid-19 situation “continues to give rise for concern” but that there are “initial positive indications in terms of markers of disease”.
NPHET’s decision following it meeting on 6 January not to recommend any additional restrictions was also reflected in the letter:
NPHET agreed, therefore, with the exception of those outlined below, that the measures the government has put in place until 30 January should be maintained until that date, and that no additional measures are indicated at this time.
The letter says that a report on hospital admissions will be prepared before NPHET’s next meeting on 20 January.
The CMO notes that the number of new cases in hospitals “are high and increasing” but that the numbers in ICU and those requiring ventilation have “remained relatively stable”.
Holohan notes that the incidence of Covid-19 hasn’t yet translated to “increased critical care admissions or mortality” and that this can be attributed to:
Potential contributory factors include the age profile of recent cases, the protection conferred by immunity (both vaccine induced and natural) in preventing or delaying progression to severe disease, and lower intrinsic virulence of Omicron compared with previous variants.
Speaking to The Journal last week, Professor Ross Morgan, Consultant in Respiratory Medicine at Beaumont Hospital, said the “data is not quite mature enough yet” to determine Omicron’s effect on hospital admissions.
Morgan said “nobody in Ireland is hospitalised with mild anything” and he outlined three broad categories of Covid patients in Irish hospitals: unvaccinated patients, vaccinated individuals who suffer a complication due to the virus, such as a blood clot condition, and vaccinated people who have an underlying medical condition that leaves them immunocompromised.
Mortality
Holohan’s letter notes that deaths from Covid-19 “remain stable”, with 157 deaths in December notified up to 5 January, following 230 deaths in November and 217 deaths in October.
The letter cautions that the notification of deaths may have been delayed over the Christmas period
Holohan notes that “Covid-19 mortality has remained relatively stable” but that a recent increase in outbreaks in settings with vulnerable people “was being closely monitored”.
In the letter, Holohan also recommends clearer advice that medical and respirator masks ‘offer greater protection’.
- With reporting by Céimin Burke
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Good to see progress in this at last
More glass square blocks going up. No creative architects left in Ireland?
Really? I think the new buildings look great: http://img2.thejournal.ie/inline/1811683/original/?width=630&version=1811683
Paul they’re a good design but not tall enough for such a prime part of town.
They do look good, but as soon as those wooden panels get neglected they will look shabby. You see it all over the city with them. That place across from the Merrion gates looks like a kip due to the state of them over the past 7-10 years.
Fair point about the Elm Park site at Merrion gates but that’s not timber on the elevation…its terracotta (if I recall correctly from the planning application)
is there any chance they will demolish liberty hall next?
They are trying to replace it but so far have been refused planning
Many fond memories photographing the city on the roof of the old Silo’s. They will not be missed and I look forward to seeing what replaces them.
I don’t think it is finished when i looked in there yesterday there was still standing walls from the old silos as well as a huge amount of rubble sitting there.
Good to see progress. The only pity is the lack of height in probably the most prime commercial location in the city. They could easily justify sleek 25 storey towers there.
You don’t know what your talking about, the huge piles of rubble is the concrete from the silos that has been crushed for recycling , and the walls still standing are nothing to do with the silos
A “demolition” job is finished when the job is brought down to ground level with no rubble remaining. I saw half a wall standing on the north side of the site with equipment in there still breaking up the rubble.
So u work at demolition then Fred lol, you don’t know what your taking about
We should contact the local councilors and complain about the buildings being too short: http://www.dublincity.ie/main-menu-your-council-your-city-councillors-find-your-local-councillors/south-east-area-councillors.
Why are they building low rise? Stupid and bad landing. There should be high rise towers going up in that part of the city
From Grand Canal Dock you can see the Aviva from outside Fresh through the gap. It’s a point of view that will only exist for a short time.
During the Easter Rising Boland’s Mills was seized by members of the 3rd Battalion of the Irish Volunteers led by Éamon De Valera: perhaps as few as 100-130 poorly armed Volunteers were involved and was to serve as the headquarters of the Volunteers in a large region of Dublin’s south inner city.
Is it too sunny for a protest?
No, but I’d say it’s a bit late!
The silos were built in the 1950s
It’s always too sunny for a protest in the wrong place. .. the site you refer to is up at grand canal street
Didn’t stop the SF Moore Street protestors demanding a non-existent building on Moore st. in 1916 being protected.
So I don’t think you have a valid point.
Ugly Concrete Silos from the 1950s, I dont think anyone will mourn them . Some of the stone buildings near the front are being incorporated into the design that they date back to the rising
I think he does have a valid point considering the building that you are thinking of isn’t even on the same street.
Dev occupied Boland’s bakery, a site which is now occupied by The Treasury Building.
You know that the Bolands Mills of 1916 is on Grand Canal Street where the NTMA now is?
How many times Lord oh Lord dies this have to be pointed out???
Should have been preserved, great men fought there
Ideal site for social housing..
There’s too much social housing in the city center. Put them out in the suburbs.
have your say