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Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

CMO: Up to 500,000 people in Ireland were likely infected with Covid-19 last week

The scale of infection estimated has been accelerated by the spread of the Omicron variant.

CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER Dr. Tony Holohan has told the government that up to 10% of the population, some 500,000 people, may have had Covid-19 last week. 

The estimate is contained in a 6 January letter from Holohan to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and is based on the incidence of the virus in the population and “constraints on testing”. 

The letter records that there were 136,960 reported cases in the week to 5 January 2022, giving rise to a 14-day incidence rate that is 4,450 per 100,000. The highest ever incidence rate and almost three times higher than in January 2021. 

“Given the 7-day cumulative incidence of 2,876 per 100,000, allowing for constraints on testing and undetected infections, the likely population prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection is 5.7%- 9.6%; between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 of the population are likely to be infected,” Holohan says.  

The letter records that positivity rates for testing was above 60% for the week and that the test and trace system was “at surge capacity and under severe pressure”.

The scale of infection estimated has been accelerated by the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which NPHET estimates accounts for 96% of new cases. 

Europe is now the epicentre of the Omicron variant, with the World Health Organisation saying today that over half of the people in Europe are projected to catch Omicron by March.  

Concern 

Holohan says in his letter that the overall Covid-19 situation “continues to give rise for concern” but that there are “initial positive indications in terms of markers of disease”.  

NPHET’s decision following it meeting on 6 January not to recommend any additional restrictions was also reflected in the letter:  

NPHET agreed, therefore, with the exception of those outlined below, that the measures the government has put in place until 30 January should be maintained until that date, and that no additional measures are indicated at this time.

The letter says that a report on hospital admissions will be prepared before NPHET’s next meeting on 20 January.  

The CMO notes that the number of new cases in hospitals “are high and increasing” but that the numbers in ICU and those requiring ventilation have “remained relatively stable”. 

Holohan notes that the incidence of Covid-19 hasn’t yet translated to “increased critical care admissions or mortality” and that this can be attributed to:

Potential contributory factors include the age profile of recent cases, the protection conferred by immunity (both vaccine induced and natural) in preventing or delaying progression to severe disease, and lower intrinsic virulence of Omicron compared with previous variants.

Speaking to The Journal last week, Professor Ross Morgan, Consultant in Respiratory Medicine at Beaumont Hospital, said the “data is not quite mature enough yet” to determine Omicron’s effect on hospital admissions.

Morgan said “nobody in Ireland is hospitalised with mild anything” and he outlined three broad categories of Covid patients in Irish hospitals: unvaccinated patients, vaccinated individuals who suffer a complication due to the virus, such as a blood clot condition, and vaccinated people who have an underlying medical condition that leaves them immunocompromised. 

Mortality 

Holohan’s letter notes that deaths from Covid-19 “remain stable”, with 157 deaths in December notified up to 5 January, following 230 deaths in November and 217 deaths in October.

The letter cautions that the notification of deaths may have been delayed over the Christmas period

Holohan notes that “Covid-19 mortality has remained relatively stable” but that a recent increase in outbreaks in settings with vulnerable people “was being closely monitored”. 

In the letter, Holohan also recommends clearer advice that medical and respirator masks ‘offer greater protection’.

- With reporting by Céimin Burke

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    Mute Patrick Presley
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    Oct 26th 2023, 8:49 AM

    Enough punishment has been administered for the moment.

    186
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    Mute Donal Ronan
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    Oct 26th 2023, 9:08 AM

    Oops! Less profit for our robber banks, seeing as this is where they make most of their profits, lodging our deposits with the ECB.
    Just another way of socialising their profits at European taxpayers expense.

    97
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    Mute did you every wonder
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    Oct 26th 2023, 1:55 PM

    @Donal Ronan: But we have a regulator, apparently, that keeps prices in check !. Works great for energy and food prices !. Tax payers money at work.

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    Mute larry smith
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    Oct 26th 2023, 9:03 AM

    A bank is being robbed by two gunmen . Everything went smoothly , quickly and quietly ,however before exiting the bank one gunman says to the other what kind of robbery is this if know one is injured or killed “you’re right kill that woman over there “says the other gunman ,
    What’s your name he asks the cashier the woman feebly replied Sophia,
    I can’t kill her as my wife is call Sophia,ok kill the man beside her ,hey fella what’s your name ,,Billy says the man but everyone calls me Sophia .

    108
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    Mute Liam Foy
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    Oct 26th 2023, 11:01 AM

    In what do we believe a bunch of very wealthy individuals in the ECB hiking interest rates, how well expert with experience are they. Lagarde is no expert but she leads the charge. Inflation has got much worse and still the EU has no idea how to contain it like the Japanese at their 3%. But their we go punishing decision for the average family is put off into some future date.

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    Mute Roy Kenneally
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    Oct 26th 2023, 1:39 PM

    @Liam Foy: Inflation isn’t worse. It was 8.6% in Sept 2022 and 5% in Sept 2023, ie. slowing down. It means the price of things are still going up, but not as quickly.

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    Mute Paddy C
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    Oct 26th 2023, 1:48 PM

    Lagarde said when she was here ‘she feels our pain’ doubt that somehow on her salary, pushing people into arrears and possibly homeless great work alright.

    34
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    Mute Timo
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    Oct 26th 2023, 12:08 PM

    And lucky to get 1.5% on a 5 year deposit account.
    What a joke

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    Mute Pato
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    Oct 26th 2023, 9:39 AM

    Have the idiots in the ECB finally recognised what everyone else knew all along, that hiking rates the way they did would eventually cause inflation rather than cure i

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    Mute Monetpenny
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    Oct 26th 2023, 12:33 PM

    @Pato: no. They didn’t get it during & in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crash either. It is written in a widely read economics textbook somewhere that to control inflation (no matter what the cause or type of inflation) you must (‘MUST’ I tell ya) increase interest rates. So they do it.
    If inflation is ‘imported’ or is caused by government lockdowns & subsequent spending to stimulate an economy the government sedated or wars or foreign government policies that affect energy supply & costs it doesn’t matter.
    We don’t stop those wars. We don’t reverse government policy & increase energy supply.
    We increase interest rates.

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    Mute Mick Duvanny
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    Oct 26th 2023, 1:41 PM

    @Monetpenny: See Turkey for what happens when you reduce interest rates during high inflation

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    Mute Eddie Garvey
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    Oct 26th 2023, 3:36 PM

    They printed so much money to keep the economies booming, which had the effect of devaluing our money and our wages, which caused inflation to strike, then they massively increased interest rates to stop people spending the money they added to the system. They are literally making it up as they go along to ensure the wealthy stay wealthy

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    Mute World Taekwondo Association Master Sheamus
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    Oct 26th 2023, 11:02 AM

    About Time, Seriously

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    Mute Des Leavy
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    Oct 26th 2023, 10:51 AM

    Comments Closed

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    Mute Jonathan Hanlon
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    Oct 26th 2023, 1:35 PM

    Please start dropping

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    Mute Alan Fitzgerald
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    Oct 26th 2023, 2:45 PM

    Surely a huge chunk of inflation is down to energy price increases and interest rates increases will have little to no effect on these. Government tax and excise increases also fuels the fire and again interest rates won’t effect these.

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    Mute R Incognito
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    Oct 26th 2023, 2:32 PM

    My fixed rate @ 2.6% is ending in November. Should I re-fix @ 4.15% ( lowest fixed rate available to me ) or stay on a variable @ 4.50% and wait and see if things improve ? I don’t know what to do :-(

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    Mute Paddy C
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    Oct 28th 2023, 9:25 AM

    @R Incognito: very hard one to answer,Im on tracker and my mortgage is up through the roof now for not fixing it and I was also advised to fix it unless I was sure I could keep up with rising payments but if I fix tracker is gone and too long left to go,the only thing I would say is if you could fix it short term at least you wouldnt be after commiting to it too much,a long fixed rate is a nightmare if rates drop, we were on fixed years ago of 5.4 and crash came and rates dropped and losing a fortune had to pay 4,600 to break out of it for the mortgage to drop 400 a month so my advice is if it’s variable try short term fixed especially now that they’re pausing increases

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    Mute
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    Oct 26th 2023, 2:07 PM

    Increasing interest rates to combat this inflation is very close to being useless. Majority of the inflation is a result of the increase in oil prices and from the war in Ukraine affecting supply of various commodities including grain. A serious question for ECB, how does increasing interest rates change oil prices or increase supply of commodities. Wouldn’t it more effective having more constructive negotiation with the Saudis and other oil producers. Also putting a ceiling on the price of basic goods, bread, eggs, pasta, etc. Increasing interest rates was always a possibility of causing recession, plus more unnecessary pain for the less well off.

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    Mute John Moore
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    Oct 26th 2023, 3:43 PM

    Rising interest rates is the only tool that the ECB have to combat inflation. But it can only do so much unless you really want to jack up rates and cause a pretty bad recession. But ECB technocrats act as though tinkering with rates contains all of the answers. It’s mostly for show to look as though they are doing something. About half of the price rises are through companies profiteering. Banks are not passing on nearly enough of the windfall through deposit rates. Whatever way the consumer turns they lose.

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    Mute
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    Oct 26th 2023, 11:00 AM

    I have many money

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    Mute Michael Burke
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    Oct 26th 2023, 1:57 PM

    And few brains cells.

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