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WITH WAR CLOUDS gathering over Ukraine, international diplomacy goes into overdrive today with the French and Russian presidents to talk in Moscow and the German chancellor heading to the White House to meet with US leader Joe Biden.
Also the German, Czech, Slovak and Austrian foreign ministers are expected in Kyiv, which has played down dire US warnings that Moscow had stepped up preparations for a major incursion into Ukraine.
US officials have said the Kremlin has assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western neighbour but intelligence assessments have not determined whether President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade.
They said Russia is on track to amass a large enough force – some 150,000 soldiers – for a full-scale invasion by mid-February.
Such a force would be capable of taking the capital Kyiv in a matter of 48 hours in an onslaught that would kill up to 50,000 civilians, 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 Russian troops and trigger a refugee flood of up to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.
On top of the potential human cost, Ukraine fears further damage to its already struggling economy.
And if Moscow attacks Ukraine it could face retaliation over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — set to double natural gas supplies from Russia to Germany — with Berlin threatening to block it.
Russia is seeking a guarantee from NATO that Ukraine will not enter the alliance and wants the bloc to withdraw forces from member states in eastern Europe.
‘Apocalyptic predictions’
Moscow denies that it is planning to invade Ukraine, and Kyiv’s presidency advisor said the chances of a diplomatic solution to the crisis remained “substantially higher than the threat of further escalation”.
On Twitter, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sought to calm tensions, saying: “Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.”
President Emmanuel Macron of France, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, will be in Moscow later today and Kyiv tomorrow to spearhead efforts to de-escalate the crisis.
He is expected to push forward a stalled peace plan for the festering conflict with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The trip will be a political gamble for Macron, who faces a re-election challenge in April.
Also today, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Biden in Washington.
“We worked hard to send a clear message to Russia that it will have a high price if they were to intervene into Ukraine,” Scholz told the Washington Post in an interview ahead of his meeting.
“I really appreciate what President Biden is doing in the bilateral talks between the United States and Russia. They are very difficult.”
Biden has reacted to the Russian troop build-up by offering 3,000 American forces to bolster NATO’s eastern flank, with a batch of the troops promised arriving in Poland on Sunday.
But US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told Fox News Sunday that Biden “is not sending forces to start a war or fight a war with Russia in Ukraine”.
“We have sent forces to Europe to defend NATO territory,” he said.
Scholz said Sunday that Berlin was prepared to send extra troops to the Baltics in addition to 500 soldiers already stationed in Lithuania under a NATO operation.
While he is in Washington, his foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, will be in Kyiv along with her Czech, Slovak and Austrian counterparts for a two-day visit.
Scholtz will be in Moscow and Kyiv next week for talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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Good points Rob. The Russians are certainly running exercises 250km inside their own country, not on the border as stated. But there is a message there for Kiev and Zelenskiy about their persistent bombing of the civilians in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The populations in both Republics are over 90% Russian and Moscow has repeatedly asked Kiev to stop their attacks on these people. The Ukraine has already signed up to the ‘Minsk Accords’ and if they’d abided by that then we would not be where we are now. Indeed the problems would end tomorrow if the US would realise that the Cold War is over, there is no longer any need for NATO and Russia and China wish to be trading partners with the West not its enemies.
@John Mallon:
Donetsk and Luhansk are populated with Russians because of Russian migration. This is no accident, it is part of Russian colonialism.
Why should the Ukraine stop their attacks against rebel forces on Ukrainian soil? Do you think Russia will stop encroaching on their neighbours territory if the Ukraine gives up Donetsk and Luhansk? Nonsense, they will continue pushing into the Ukraine.
Give Russia an inch, and they will take a mile.
@David Bourke: Unbelievable, you want war between Ukraine and Russia because you reckon Donbas should not be entitled to regional autonomy from Kiev. Do you hear yourself?
@Rob Dowling: do you think that every part of every country, that isn’t in favour of the government, should take up arms and fight against the governments? That’s what you are basically supporting here.
@Rob Dowling:
No I want Russia to back off and for Russians in Eastern Europe to show respect for the natives of the countries they live in
The Ukrainian people have the claim to all of Ukraine, not just the western part. If the Russians in eastern Ukraine don’t want to be ruled by the democratic Ukrainian government, they should p!ss off back to Russia tbh
@David Bourke: I suppose you reckon the Ulster British should p!ss of back to Britain or perhaps the Irish in NI should p!ss of back to Republic of Ireland. This reveals your frothing Russophobia, when push comes to shove all you can think if is ethnically cleansing this or that country of Russians as a ‘solution’. You should go and hang out with Right Sektor in Kiev, you’d feel at home.
@Rob Dowling:
“Russophobia”, that’s a good one. If you lived in Eastern Europe you would understand that the fear of Russia is a very real and rational fear to have.
If you want to talk about ethnic clensing, lets talk about Holodomor. The Ukrainians have good reason to resist Russian annexation. They should not let Russia take an inch of Ukrainian land.
@John Mallon: You’re a Russia bot repeating Russian talking points. Nothing you stated there is factual.
Firstly – Ukraine isn’t persistently bombing civilians in Donestsk and Lunansk. The populations of both Republics are not over 90% Russian. They are Ukrainian. You’re falsely equating being Russian speaking with being ethnically Russian, which they are not.
Secondly, Ukraine is perfectly entitled to defend its territory against terrorists who are attacking their soldiers and trying to interfere in the sovereign matters of Ukraine.
” The Russians are certainly running exercises 250km inside their own country”
False. They are amassing troops, arms and tanks in Belarus way less than 250km from the Ukrainian border. That is not their own country. They are effectively surrounding Ukraine where possible.
So stop lying, thank you.
Russia had one of its two major naval bases in Sevastopol in the Crimea and they had 13,000 military personnel serving there at the time of the overthrow of the legitimate government of Ukraine. The new regime immediately began moving troops and armour towards Crimea but the Russians at the base got out on the streets quickly. A referendum was duly held and 95% of the population rejected the idea of being ruled by the illegal regime in Kiev in favour of joining the Russian Federation.
It might be useful for readers here to read the history of Ukraine and discover what is really happening in context.
The Russians are amassing a force big enough to take all of Ukraine in the window of time when the muddy land is rock hard, from mid-Feb to late March. The eastern half of Ukraine is Russia/Eurasian Union-oriented, the western half is EU/NATO oriented. That being the reality on the ground, a demographic reality that won’t change, why won’t Zelenskiy recognise regional autonomy for Russia-oriented regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk? Does he really believe either Russia is bluffing or, if not, that NATO will swoop in the defe d his, when he won’t even talk about autonomy for Donbas?
@Rob Dowling:
Russians in Eastern Ukraine all have Russian passports. Russia hands out Russian passports like candy so they can claim to be “protecting their citizens”.
For this simple reason, all Russians in Eastern Ukraine are welcome to p!ss off to Russia if they desire to not be part of the Ukraine.
It is Ukrainian territory, for Ukrainian people. Russia has been using the same plantation tactics that the British did in Ireland. They are attempting to use this tactic against the Baltics as well.
Make no mistake, Russian migration is a weapon.
@David Bourke: We hand out Irish passports in Northern Ireland! Jesus.
@Rob Dowling:
Irish passports in Ireland? Makes sense. It’s an interesting comparison because the Russians are using the exact same plantation tactics as the British did in Ireland.
@Rob Dowling: Offensive statement. You might be a partitionist but most Irish people are not.
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: whoosh
Putin will make his move when it suits him, quickly taking half the country but will move back to the river following negotiation, and will hold everything east of that line. He got away with the Crimea, no reason he won’t get away with this.
@John Mulligan: He tell you that over a phone call did he. Don’t suppose he told you why is his army waiting in the same positions for months watching Ukrainian forces getting shinny new NATO weapons and training more troops building better defences and digging in deeper thus making it harder for Russia to advance as quickly and take the country before NATO can mobilise it’s forces for a counter attack?
@Roy Dowling: He is giving the other side time to arm up. He wants a fair fight. That’s the only logical reason.
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