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LAST UPDATE | 11 Feb 2022
THE US HAS dramatically raised the alarm this evening over Ukraine, warning that a Russian invasion starting with civilians caught under aerial bombing could start in days.
An attack by the more than 100,000 Russian troops currently massed next to Ukraine “could occur any day now,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters in Washington.
Dismissing speculation that the Kremlin would never trigger the crisis while the Beijing Olympics were still underway in close Russian ally China, Sullivan said such an attack “could occur” before the Games end on 20 February.
The scenario of an imminent attack is “a very, very distinct possibility,” Sullivan said.
While stressing that it was not yet known whether President Vladimir Putin had taken a decision, saying “we can’t predict the exact determination,” Sullivan made clear that the United States was bracing for the worst, including a “rapid assault” on the capital Kyiv.
“If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians,” he said. “Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible, and in any event in the next 24 to 48 hours.”
Sullivan spoke shortly after Biden and six European leaders, the heads of NATO and the European Union held talks on the worst crisis between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War.
The French government said that President Emmanuel Macron would speak directly with Putin tomorrow. Sullivan said also to “expect” a Biden-Putin phone call, though he gave no timing.
US President Joe Biden has urged Americans to immediately leave Ukraine, as Russia’s live-fire drills and build-up of troops around the ex-Soviet state deepened fears of an invasion.
Biden yesterday called on citizens to leave Ukraine, and a new message from the White House tonight says they should leave “in the next 24 to 48 hours”.
The UK has also called on its citizens to leave the country “while commericial means are still available”.
Ireland’s response
The Department of Foreign Affairs this evening said it is in “ongoing contact” at senior level with EU partners, as well as the UK and the US, regarding the political and security situation in Ukraine.
“Our Embassy in Kyiv is in constant coordination with partners on the ground in respect of consular and security contingency planning and that coordination will continue through the weekend,” the Department said.
“Ireland, along with other EU MS, continues to advise against all non-essential travel to Ukraine and is asking all citizens in Ukraine to ensure that they are registered with our Embassy in Kyiv. Travel advice will be kept under constant review, in consultation with EU partners,” it said.
The Department noted that a number of Embassies in Kyiv, including the UK, US, Canada, have drawn down non-essential personnel and family members of diplomatic staff only.
However, it confirmed: “There are no plans to withdraw staff from the Embassy of Ireland in Kyiv at this time.”
The Department is in ongoing direct contact with Irish families scheduled to travel to Ukraine for surrogacy purposes and will continue to provide advice and assistance.
“We continue to call on Russia to de-escalate, abide by international law and engage constructively in dialogue. Recent high-level discussions are welcome. These now need to translate into immediate, tangible actions and a commitment to dialogue.”
NATO
Sullivan repeated warnings that Russia would face severe Western sanctions and said also that NATO, which Putin wants to push back from eastern Europe, is now “more cohesive, more purposeful, more dynamic than any time in recent memory.”
Following the group phone call between US and European leaders, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s spokesman said “all diplomatic efforts are aimed at persuading Moscow to de-escalate. The aim is to prevent a war in Europe.”
But if Moscow fails to pull back, Berlin said “the allies are determined to jointly take swift and deep sanctions against Russia, should there be further violations of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty”.
These sanctions would target the financial and energy sectors, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said.
Russian troops
Russian naval forces and troops, including units brought in from all over the vast country, now surround Ukraine to the south, east and north.
Russia, which denies any plan to attack Ukraine, already controls the Crimea territory seized in 2014 and supports separatist forces controling the Donbass region in the east.
The Kremlin says its goal is to get NATO to agree to never give Ukraine membership and also to withdraw from eastern European countries already in the alliance, effectively carving Europe into spheres of influence. The United States and its European allies reject the demands.
Adding to tensions, large-scale Russian military drills were underway Friday with authoritarian ally Belarus, which lies just north of Kyiv and also borders the European Union.
Russia’s defense ministry said Friday it was also holding military exercises near Ukraine’s border in the Black Sea.
According to the head of Norway’s military intelligence service, Russia is operationally ready to conduct a wide range of military operations in Ukraine and the Kremlin just needs to make the call.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the other Western leaders that he fears “for the security of Europe,” his Downing Street office said as Britain and Norway joined the United States in asking their nationals to leave Ukraine.
The growing alarm comes despite efforts at shuttle diplomacy by European officials.
Macron visited both Moscow and Kyiv earlier this week and Scholz is expected to do the same in the coming days. Scholz will also hold his first in-person meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace was in Moscow Friday for rare talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu.
He was accompanied by the UK’s Chief of Defence Staff Tony Radakin, and the pair will also meet Russia’s top army general Valery Gerasimov.
Wallace’s visit comes a day after Britain’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss met with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow for talks that appeared fruitless and ended in mutual recriminations.
There was also disappointment after a separate meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, under the mediation of Germany and France. Sources described the meeting as “difficult.”
In some of his starkest comments yet, Biden told NBC News yesterday that Americans should exit Ukraine because “we’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world” and “things could go crazy quickly.”
© AFP 2022 with reporting by Hayley Halpin
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Sound like new business opportunities for us here in Ireland.
@mickmc: it won’t effect the scobie champagne “Buckfast “
@mickmc: Sparkling Elderberry?
The response to the so-called climategate emails was that the academic community hired even more people to support the ‘climate change’ bandwagon so 8 years later the world is seeing the fruits of that policy whether it is airplane landing difficulties , wine productivity or anything else to keep the corpse dancing.
The real issue is far more interesting as it is unfinished historical business that wasn’t addressed since the Galileo affair when a dispute broke out about predictive modelling and proof of the Earth’s motion around the Sun. The ‘climate change’ bandwagon is merely another symptom of that systemic failure so the difficulty is the current lack of people willing to deal with the matter at that level.
@Gerald Kelleher:
So-called ‘climategate’ was debunked years ago. It’s amazing how deniers still cling on to it.
@Gerald Kelleher: I see some detail here finally. Do you have some issue with predictive modelling? If so, please elaborate.Thanks.
Climate change is always happening. For those who are awake don’t believe that it is just man made or in the scam that is the carbon tax. Saying that there is certainly nothing wrong with developing and using renewable energy.
@George Salter: The last time you showed up in a comment section you were talking about ‘annoying the troll’ and now you are looking for information. The issue is for adults who feel they are not being lectured to and have developed a sense that ‘climate change’ is a symptom of something else -
“We cannot teach people anything; we can only help them discover it within themselves.” Galileo
@George Salter: Gerald is labouring under the misconception that everybody except him is stuck in the 1800 and we are all blindly following a simple mechanistic view of the world. That because modelling is so limited and so easily manipulated it should never be used at all. While he has a good point about manipulation and reliability, he fails to see that it is still a useful tool when used properly.
@Greg Blake: Ah but you see, the point is that modelling is useful as long as you are aware of its limitations and that was the major point which straddles the geocentric system and the shift to the Sun centered system and it was the valid objection of the Pope at the time.If the Journal didn’t always tie one hand behind my back when I try to expand on this as responses go down a drain I would make it clear as to why ‘climate change’ is a symptom of an overreaching approach.
@Gerald Kelleher: Well, it is a bit hard to take you seriously when you produce quite sanctimonious statements and then pretty much sneer at anyone who isn’t convinced by your arguments (for want of a better word). I’ve tried engaging before, to be faced with derision and an attitude of “you poor simple fool”.
I’m happy to discuss, but producing odd statements that annoy people, then putting them down and generally being offensive, is pretty much what a troll does.
Incidentally, this is not the first time I’ve been on comments since…just on comments that you appear in.
@Gerald Kelleher: The argument that climate change isn’t man made is complete bunkum. Everyone who makes this claim seems to point to the fact that there has always been climate change in the past. But this is a complete denial delusion. We know that the effects are definitely man-made because the RATE of climate change has burst out of the natural (very slow) rate that has been the norm in the past. Not to mention that we have covered 3% of all inhabitable land with tarmac and concrete, removed trillions of acres of forests and are pumping CO2 and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere at a spectacular and unprecedented rate, so we are not short of explanations for the record breakout we are witnessing, it’s just that some prefer to remain blinkered.
@Greg Blake: “Gerald is labouring under the misconception that everybody except him is stuck in the 1800 ”
Not so, the hand everyone here has been dealt with ,including you, begins in the early 17th century. The limitations will show up in a month when the solar eclipse happens and the inner planets are observed -
http://www.zam.fme.vutbr.cz/~druck/eclipse/Ecl1997r/Tse1997uw2/Hr/Tse1997uw2.png
That is the only time Mercury and Venus are seen with the central Sun in the picture otherwise the two planets are restricted to dawn and twilight appearances. As analogy we see the two inner planets move around the central Sun much as we see Jupiter’s satellites move around their parent planet -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcrBAuLBXag
This has a huge bearing on modelling even though it is not immediately apparent and that is why reasonable adults are necessary to work through the details where limitations based on speculative conclusions can’t be passed off as inviolate facts. At least you, despite a small dig, have a balanced view that is rare to see in this comment section.
@Gerald Kelleher: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Spain recorded it’s highest tempature ever of 47 degrees this year around Cordoba. Maybe in 100 years time we can look forward to Irish grown grapes and fine wines.
Picking grapes in the rain and sipping red wine on the patio with the odd spit of drizzle in the air should be something.
@Charles Williams: wine is produced in the UK so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility in the near future
@Jamie:
It’s actually quite likely.
@Charles Williams: Man-made climate change deniers are simply those who can’t interpret graphs and don’t understand the difference between rate of change. https://xkcd.com/1732/
@Paraic McDonagh: *Change and rate of change*.
@Jamie: Already being produced in Ireland Blackwater Valley Vineyard (Mallow), Longueville House (Mallow), West Waterford Vineyard (Cappoquin, Co. Waterford for example. The EU recognises us as a wine producing nation.
Honestly, never hear of that.
In Italy, harvest time, it’s at beginning/mid September. Perfectly sustainable working on that condition….pretty much every student did the season once in their life to make few quid.
Some grapes, for some wines, particularly in South Italy are harvested earlier, just because the mature earlier: late August. That time, at that latitude, they harvest overnight, since the time of our grandparents,
Sometimes, I feel they’re seeking problems where there are no problem at all…
@Proudly Italian: Sixteen of the 17 warmest years in the 136-year record all have occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998. The year 2016 ranks as the warmest on record (so far).
@Paraic McDonagh: care to tell us by what margin it is ‘the warmest year on record’ and the margin of error? Just a crock of ‘homogenised’ stats because the raw data is very inconvenient to the pseudo-religion of ACC. If the raw data is good, why would Mann not release it during the recent Canadian trial.
@Joseph Siddall: You’re not a climatologist so you have no business speaking on it just like you’re not an oncologist which means I will never consult a buffoon like you if I ever get the big C. Go away, you mental midget.
@Proudly Italian: Was told by a wine producer in Napa that the climate is changing at a rapid pace and the vineyards there are feeling the effects first hand. They grapes are being harvested at different times every year. Your opinion is uninformed and ignorant. Goodnight.
@Philip Gerard: so, either you don’t know or do know and the numbers don’t stack up in your favour. I think we all now know which it is. Name calling instead of answering a simple, civil question. One can only feel sorry for you.
@Paraic McDonagh: i wonder why you got Philip Gerard to, not, answer my simple question? Unless, of course, you are one and the same person. Two cheeks … As they say?
Very misleading, I was expecting to read about the effects on the grape vines, instead I read about workers. Luckily humans are adaptable & workers will have to adjust their work patterns if required, although it’s probably something that they already do in these areas.
Sunspot cycle is at a 70 year low….This could trigger some years of global cooling
@John003: Really? We’re on the 24th cycle since records started in the late 1700s. There doesn’t seem to have been 24 warming/cooling cycles associated with this.
How can this be? There is no climate change. These libtard chateaux entreprenneurs are simply making expensive changes in order to promote ideology. It must be the lizards making them do it.
Time to ditch the potatoes….. I smell new business
@john Appleseed:
We may have ditched the spud already because most of supermarket stock is imported.
When have you last seen a field of spuds?
Jesus H. Christ.
Tripe. Harvest is September in most European producing countries and most of that is done by machinery these days. There’s any amount of locals willing to put in the work for that short period. The vines are hardy beyond comprehension. Twill be a long long time before wine production will be affected, infact I’d argue that it’s on the increase.
There was frost in Bordeaux which ruined the crop. Hardly because of increased temperatures…
Now this weather thing is getting serious
If the Irish temperature lifted 5 degrees year round then the farmers would be happy, the tourists would be happy so, “why worry…..be happy….”
Blah Blah Blah……Fake News. Stop this nonsense, giving wine producers and leaders a big stick to beat us with. Wait and see , another new Tax collected for the Ozone layer, has the carbon tax even been handed over to our creator to fix the hole in the sky. Its simple just too many people on the planet. sort that out and were fixed for another 2 million years. They way these nuts are talking we only have 1.5 million years on this planet. What a load of crap lol
What a crock of shi#t
Wouldn’t tea and coffee be effected too, olive oil etc etc?
have your say