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IN HER SPEECH in the Europa Hotel in Belfast a fortnight ago, Mary Lou McDonald ended by imagining a Stormont Executive without the DUP.
An administration based on delivery, she told Sinn Féin colleagues, would be the result.
Only McDonald wasn’t imagining the prospect: she was instead reflecting on the past few months following the DUP’s departure from power-sharing, and spinning it as a positive.
The February decision by the DUP’s Paul Givan to resign as first minister imploded the executive, taking Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill with him from her position as deputy.
Other ministers were able to stay in their roles as part of a shadow administration to sign off on various policies but the government cannot go on long-term without two premiers.
This remains the question that hangs over the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May, with no guarantee that the DUP will return to government after it.
There are two reasons for this. The first is the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is unchanged and remains an issue for unionists.
The second reason is the real possibility that Sinn Féin may be elected as the largest party in Stormont and would therefore be entitled to nominate a first minister.
As part of the power-sharing structure formed as part of the Good Friday Agreement, the offices of first and deputy first minister must be shared between elected MLAs who designate themselves as either ‘nationalist’ or ‘unionist’.
Since the foundation of the Assembly, the office of first minister has always been held by a unionist. The DUP has held the position for the past 15 years and before that it was held by the UUP.
With Sinn Féin now potentially the largest party in the new Assembly, the unionist parties are refusing to say if they would nominate a deputy first minister in such circumstances.
For its part, Sinn Féin has said it will nominate for either the position of first or deputy first minister after the election.
The Alliance Party has argued that the rules should be changed to end the mandatory coalition of the largest unionist and largest nationalist parties.
Its party leader Naomi Long has said that if the largest party does not wish to go into government it could instead go into opposition.
Long says this would allow for a coalition of the parties “willing” to serve and would end the effective veto the two largest parties have on the operation of the Executive.
Sinn Féin, however, is opposed to the change, insisting that it “will be defending, not renegotiating the Good Friday Agreement”.
So in that context, how likely is it that Sinn Féin will be elected as the largest party in Stormont?
In 2017, the party emerged with 27 MLAs, just one less than the DUPs 28. This time, polling indicates that Sinn Féin is on course to be the largest party.
A poll last week from the Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool put support for Sinn Féin at 27%, some 7 points ahead of the DUP at 20%.
Latest @IrishInstitute @irish_news results.
— David McCann (@dmcbfs) April 4, 2022
Voters coalescing around SF. Signs of DUP recovery and APNI still polling strongly. #AE22
🟩SF-27%
🟧DUP-20.2%
🟨APNI-14.6%
🟦UUP-13.5%
🟥SDLP-10.3%
🟪TUV-5.4%
Significantly, Sinn Féin’s popularity appears to be unchanged compared to the 2017 result whereas the DUP is down significantly from 28% to about 20%.
Speaking to The Journal, deputy editor of the Slugger O’Toole website David McCann says Sinn Féin’s objective in the 5 May vote is consolidation rather than an increase.
Sinn Fein aren’t running to gain anywhere because that election couldn’t have gone any better for them last time. What they’re looking to do is protect their seats. Sinn Fein have a whole lot of constituencies where they’ve got more than one seat. North Belfast they’ve got one seat, in West Belfast they’ve got four out of the five seats.
In all the western constituencies, so West Tyrone, Fermanagh & South Tyrone, they’ve got three out of five seats, Mid Ulster they’ve got three out of five seats, Newry & Armagh three out of five. So they’re trying to protect the third seats in some of those constituencies.
McCann says Sinn Féin has so far run a “very disciplined and low level campaign” that is focused trying to avoid stoking any controversy that would give opponents even more of a reason to vote.
He points to the conciliatory positions Michelle O’Neill has taken on the Border Poll and the ‘exclusion’ of the Green Party from the Leaders Debate.
McCann argues that what Sinn Féin needs to do is to not just win but to ensure it maintains a big enough gap between itself and the DUP.
“They need the DUP to be about seven or eight percentage points behind them because whilst the DUP could come behind Sinn Féin in terms of votes, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll come behind them in terms of seats.”
If you think back to 1998, the SDLP got more first preference votes than Ulster Unionists, but the Ulster Unionists still got more seats. Again in 2007, the SDLP got more votes than the Ulster Unionists who again got more seats. So that’s what Sinn Féin need, they need to be far enough ahead of the DUP to make sure that they’re the largest party.
Sinn Féin is running 34 candidates across 18 constituencies so there are races to watch everywhere.
McCann says Sinn Fein’s performance in West Belfast will be a good barometer of their chances, while the DUP’s performance in Foyle will be a good indicator of how they’re likely to stack up across the province.
All of that will play out at the ballot boxes from 5 May.
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It’s very likely. And it’ll mean FF/FG down south will be terrified.
@Madra: why? A comment like this does not help anyone to understand the logic you are using .
@Dave Phelan: i understood what he meant straight away
@Adam Kelly: please share
@Dave Phelan: it means the days of FF/FG in power are done and dusted. Simple really.
@Madra: I actually think FG snd FF will relish SF being the biggest party in the north. They will be able to point to their record north of the border. Being in opposition is easy. Let’s see what kind of job they do up there.
@Dave Phelan: is clear what was meant.
@John Comerford: I’d ask you what job has FFFG done here will in power since the foundation of the state.
@John Comerford: they won’t have a chance. SF will come into power both north and south. And just to state I have never voted SF but reluctantly will next election.
@Marcus Suridius: rather stuoid comment
It’s hard to say that wouldn’t be a positive development. I’m no Sinn Fein supporter but I think we all deserve to reimagine a better island for the future – with the faux border making little sense in this day and age. It’s also hard to see anyone better positioned or motivated than Sinn Fein to deliver that change on the island.
@Toon Army: you sound very like a Sinn Féin supporter
@JPM: you don’t have to be a Sinn Féin supporter to want a United Ireland.
@Sumsoar Khan: Or want a government that might actually put its people first. Its been a very long time since that has happened.
@JPM: I think Limerick will win the All Ireland Hurling final, but Im not a Limerick supporter!
If someone believes SF are likely to oversee a Border Poll while in power, does that make them a supporter of that party?
It will be a free for all but who is going to pay for all the free benefits that SF love to dish out. ?
@Irish big fellow: ya good question that. Never get the answer to that one though from a Shinner.
@Irish big fellow: Who is paying for all the freebies FFG are currently giving out? They are the only ones who have given out freebies in this country.
@Irish big fellow: what free benefits have they dished out?
@JPM: a bit of research will show you that all Sinn Fein budget proposals have been costed by department of finance and passed as viable.
@Irish big fellow: only ones handing out free benefits are FFG. Not to me though, because I go to work.
@David Burns: there is no such thing as free benefits. With VAT at 23% and a wide range of hidden duties/levies it must be in region of 30/40cent on every Euro spent is a form of taxation.
@Irish big fellow: You already kno wthe answer, in fact everyone knows the answer, but ye keep asking the same question… The money will come form the tax payer the same as it does now… You know the same place the 1.4 billion came form to pay for that hospital…
@Irish big fellow: Do you mean the money tree that FFG/ Greens stated..Didn’t exist? They were fast enough to again borrow Billions during the pandemic, the same Billions they stated couldn’t be borrowed. A bit like the rush to house ,give medical care , education to refugees from Ukraine. Not for a second stating this policy is wrong, Refugees from waring countries should be made welcome, but FFG/ Greens seem to have forgotten the or ignored the massive problems in this country before the war in Ukraine.
@Mogh Roith: Middle income Ireland never gets anything but screwed constantly for more and more taxes.
@Franny Ando: dont mind paying it. Would just be great to be able to do things like see a doctor if my arm is hanging off. Is that too much to ask?
@Donal Desmond: SF wanted to borrow more during the pandemic. They wanted to keep hospitality closed and 60K workers on the PUP, they said that €350 a week was too little yet they themselves were paying out a lot less in the North. A little bit of research son. Read their last manifesto from 2020. Fairytale stuff.
@Mogh Roith: Nope. Unfortunately very little change out of 100 euro between doctor and a prescription. Most middle income earners can’t afford to be ill in this country.
Sinn Fein are worse than the rest and the rest are bad.
@Henry: can be no worst in what we have gone through for the last 100yrs
@Shaun Gallagher: The country has come on a lot in the last 100 years. Arguably more than anywhere else in the west.
@Henry: they’re the most popular party north, south and across Ireland as a whole.
So how did you work that out in your head?
@Padraic Burke: Every man, woman and child is in debt to the tune of €49000 at the minute, record people turning up at food banks, people deciding to either heat the house or eat, pay more tax than any other EU countries, no health service, no houses and every member of the Dail are millionaires laughing at us
@Henry: To say that Sinn Féin are worse than the DUP or the TUV just reeks of your irrationality. I get it, you don’t like Sinn Féin… But that would be like me saying Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil are worse than the National Party, totally Irrational!
@Henry: In reality I believe you’re being disingenuous.
@Shaun Gallagher: Laughably silly comments. Every member of the Dail are millionaires are they, personal tax rates are higher than the rest of the EU? Government debt also does not translate into personal debt… #rotfl
@Henry: typical anti Sinn Fein comment, no substance.
@Sea__Point: Laugh away
@Padraic Burke: Crumbling Health service, Housing crisis, Homelessness, Scandal after Scandal, Billions taken from the economy and Billions yet to be repaid concerning the greed of the banks and developers facilated by the political parties that again form the government. A circus that is 100 years old.
@Donal Desmond: much the same as the North.
@Shaun Gallagher: Every member of the Dail millionaires. Are you aware of what you are saying.
Here have a read of this and learn the facts https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/members/registerOfMembersInterests/dail/2022/2022-02-16_register-of-members-interests-dail-eireann_en.pdf
@Gary Kearney: hahaha
@GrumpyAulFella: Think you would want to check your facts…Rates paid in the North include Doctor’s visits and bin charges. Sinn Fein have been in power in the six counties for 20 odd years, the circus of FFG have been in power since the foundation of this state, A happy cartel of two political parties with pretend differences.
@Henry: silly comment
Stop knocking ireland. We should be very proud of what we have accomplished since our independence. We were a small poor agricultural based economy reliant on our richer U.K. neighbour. Our GDP per capita now is double that of the U.K. we have reduced the influence of the church and have become quite liberal.
I for one am very proud to be Irish and the incredible progress we have made as a nation over the last 100 years. When I left University in the mid 1990 there were very opportunities in ireland. People were forced to leave the country.
We have a fantastic country and there is not another country in the world I would prefer to live. Especially when the weather is like this.
@John Comerford: sorry that was a response to Marcus about who asked what have we achieve i. The last 100 years of being under FF or FG governments
@John Comerford: Agree totally.On paper I have become well off by working hard over the last 30 years. I would fear SF would make me poor again.
Let’s be clear here. SF may become the largest because of the fragmentation of the Unionist vote and a marginal move to non-sectarian parties. SF is incapable of trying to bridge the divide in NI. Its lazy “Brits out” mantra is not a solution. Just another populist slogan from a party devoid of the capacity to be more inclusive.
@camio55: where hace they been plastering this “Brits out” stuff?
@camio55: the only place I’ve seen that populist slogan recently north or south is from you. Give it a rest.
@P.S. I Hate You: facts are hard to deal with… on the 16march 2019 the SF leader walked in New York with a banner that said the following “England get out of Ireland” . These are the simplistic mantras of a populist party.
Win means they get a majority of seats. No party ever gets this.
Then its a shared government anyway only difference is who gets first minister which has same power as second minister.
Its not exactly a democracy.
Yes likely. What would it mean. So hard to even imagine. To me this party are FF lite. They even use old FF policies from the 70s and that’s a worry. I’m not wholly inspired by them but it would be good for politics across the island to reveal either their strength or weakness in turning things on its head which is needed & to remind the others including the unionist parties that it’s the electorate that hold real power not any party. To me this would be the biggest influence.
The DUP will not play second fiddle. They’ll merge with another unionist party under a new temporary banner just for the seat count.
For this situation to have any impact in the Republic Sinn Fein will need to vastly improve on their 27 % and be 100% sure who they’re putting on the ticket in the next election. It would be great to see Sinn Fein getting in but to have it collapse around them because of issues with candidates would be a disaster.
@Tony Leonard: They will run plenty of candidates in the next election.
@Tommy Berry: they’ll need much more than 33% of the vote to do anything no matter how many candidates they run. Nobody will go into power with them.
@GrumpyAulFella: Are you telling me FF, Labour and the Social Democrats won’t? Really?
@GrumpyAulFella: never is a long time
It is sad to see that people still play party politics and fight the same tired battles over and over.
We need a government of the people and not built on party promises or ethos.
Not one where the parties are trying to show each other up.
If all the best ideas from the parties were put together we would be on a winner.
I am a dreamer like that, thinking that party politics is not as important as the people of the country. That an ideology is more important that living conditions.
You see it all the time, especially in opinion pieces here by politicians, saying their policies as they only ones that will work.
Almost of all of the parties have good plans but would never use anybody else’s as they feel that would make them look weak.
It means more free houses for the scroungers.
@Davy Evans: there’s no such thing, thinking there is is just weird
have your say