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Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill speaks after topping the poll at the Medow Bank election count centre. AP/PA Images

Brian Rowan Sinn Féin and Alliance's success represents a political shift in Northern Ireland

The former BBC correspondent says the story of “two tribes” in the North is now being stretched out across a wider canvas.

WHEN THE COUNTING is done, the winners stand out. They are instantly recognisable.

You see it in the spring in their step. Hear it in the laughter of happiness and success.

I was at the Belfast count centre on Saturday; there to be interviewed by Annita McVeigh across a few hours of coverage on the BBC News Channel.

For others, these days can be wake-like. The SDLP, in particular, has a lot to think about after this election and a set of results in which its Stormont numbers fell to eight.

The Ulster Unionists dropped to nine.

The count

As the results emerged, the big winners were Sinn Féin and Alliance.

Sinn Féin with more votes and more seats than the DUP and with the numbers to be First Minister. What has been properly described as a seismic moment.

Alliance more than doubled its Stormont representation. More evidence of a growing and more significant third pillar within our politics.

It means the story of here can no longer be told in the narrow frame of ‘two tribes’. It is being stretched out across a wider canvas.

The political ground is shifting.

britain-northern-ireland-election Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill and party leader Mary Lou McDonald after the party topped the poll at the Medow Bank election count centre on Saturday. AP / PA Images AP / PA Images / PA Images

But will a fully-functioning Stormont now be restored?

Not until the DUP has answers on the post-Brexit Irish Sea Border – and on what will be done to address its concerns.

Those are not just about the new trading arrangements between GB and here, but about the status of Northern Ireland within the Union.

On Friday, party MP Sammy Wilson said the Assembly cannot function if the “poison of the protocol” is still there.

How long will it take to answer those questions?

How long is a piece of string?

How long will Stormont have to wait when there is no time for waiting?

People are struggling in a cost-of-living crisis and with pressures in the Health Service that need urgent attention.

Former NI Secretary of State Julian Smith, the co-architect with Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney of the January 2020 agreement that put Stormont back in place after a three-year absence, hopes the current protocol negotiations can be accelerated “to deliver a rapid political solution”.

2022-ni-assembly-election Chief Executive of the DUP Timothy Johnston taking a photo of Keith Buchanan, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, Gary Middleton, and Gregory Campbell MP and supporters at Meadowlands Arena. PA PA

He was writing in the Financial Times: “But beyond the problems with the protocol, there are few other excuses for politicians in Northern Ireland to delay forming an executive – Nationalists taking the First Minister slot is definitely not one of them,” he wrote.

The results

In a new executive, Sinn Féin’s leader in the north Michelle O’Neill will be First Minister.

This is the big story from the election, the “big idea” that energised and motivated people on the doorsteps.

Sinn Féin emerged from this election with 250,388 votes and 27 seats. The DUP had 184,002 votes and 25 seats.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson had predicted that in such circumstances Sinn Féin’s call for a date for a border poll would get louder.

It was a last roll of the dice, trying to get the unionist vote both focused and out.

After a period of internal turmoil, his party had a better vote and seat tally than predicted, but not good enough to match the Sinn Féin surge.

In its build-up, this was a quieter version of the 2017 election, remembered for Arlene Foster’s rejection of an Irish Language Act and her description of Sinn Féin as a crocodile – that if you feed it, it will keep coming back for more.

In 2017, the DUP was still largest party, but by just one seat and a little over 1000 votes.

This time, Sinn Féin took that possibility of being First Minister to the doorsteps, the ‘big idea’, that to quote one source had eyes lighting up.

They won by more than 66,000 votes. The polls that suggested they would be the largest party were right.

A border poll?

In the office that leads the Stormont Executive, First Minister and deputy First Minister have equal powers, but in this place titles matter. First Minister has a better ring to it.

Does it mean that a border poll is closer?

This is a decision for the UK Government. Julian Smith reckons the chances of Boris Johnson acceding to one are next to nil.

2022-ni-assembly-election Newly elected Alliance Party of NI MLA Eoin Tennyson with his party leader Naomi Long and supporters celebrate his victory. PA PA

Boris Johnson won’t be there forever.

What will get louder will be the demands for planning and preparations to begin. The work on what any ‘New Ireland’ might look like and the conversations and research that will shape it.

Neither Orange nor Green can win such a poll. That’s the significance and the influence of that third pillar within our politics, and its thinking if/when such a poll occurs.

Alliance won 17 seats in the new Assembly, including one in North Antrim – the constituency long identified with the Paisley name.

Here Jim Allister of the TUV retained his seat, and although his party’s vote significantly increased across the frame, it could not add to its one seat at Stormont.

A few days ago, I wrote here that there was nothing dull about this election.

Look at the headlines telling a story of change.

Five years on from 2017, the quieter crocodile had a bigger bite.

It came back for more.

Brian Rowan is a journalist and author. He is a former BBC correspondent in Belfast. Brian is the author of several books on Northern Ireland’s peace process. His new book, “Political Purgatory – The Battle to Save Stormont and the Play for a New Ireland” is out now at Merrion Press.

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    Mute colin
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:23 PM

    Phew!! – that’s lucky. We wouldn’t want to annoy the Americans!!

    Even if his application was valid the government wouldn’t have the backbone to offer him asylum. Then we wouldn’t be allowed to sit on the USA’s lap and get our belly rubbed.

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    Mute Luke McDermott
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:01 PM

    Well considering we really heavily on exports and US multinationals, no we really wouldn’t want to upset the Americans. I don’t like what’s happening to him either but we have to be practical.

    51
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    Mute Red Squirrel
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:11 PM

    The israelis might be the best people to ask when looking for an irish passport….

    122
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    Mute Montys Moonshine
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:15 PM

    I say let him in and let him kip down with Clare daly for a while. He’ll be gagging to get bk to the states after that.

    212
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    Mute Mark Paterson
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:14 PM

    Clare Daly, rent a quote – she has an opinion on everything but is of no use to anyone

    147
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    Mute Scarr
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:39 PM

    Much like your input to this topic so.

    97
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    Mute Martin
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:53 PM

    @Mark….yeah people with principles are a pain in the ar$e. Better to put the $ above our character everytime.

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    Mute Fagan Fagan
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 6:52 PM

    She nailed it last week when she called Obama a warmonger .
    She makes statements that are to the point ,that worries ignorant people

    42
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    Mute Carcu Sidub
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:21 PM

    How come the Department wont comment on individual cases but Enda will?. One rule for the people & one rule for the politicians.

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    Mute Larry K
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:27 PM

    Case is closed at this point maybe?

    43
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    Mute _doesnotcompute
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:43 PM

    There never was any case to begin with, since the case was invalid.

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    Mute _doesnotcompute
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:43 PM

    *request was invalid

    26
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    Mute JayK
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:28 PM

    This was in Leader’s Questions in the Dail which has special privilige, not an inquiry by the media or a 3rd party.

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    Mute Eamonn O'Riain
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:21 PM

    “in this state”
    HA!!!!
    They’d land him in Shannon for the 30 seconds it would take to stamp his application “denied”, and then frogmarch him onto the next passing U.S. military plane!
    Edna, your spine implantation is long overdue.

    126
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    Mute R H Beige Lark
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:46 PM

    It might seem like it is stating the obvious, but with this move by Snowden he has managed to demonstrate the number of countries that can not offer political asylum to those hunted by the US security forces. The US leans on other governments and replaces those that don’t play ball, making a joke of the soveriegnty of other states with a couple of notable exceptions – these then being considered enemies of the US.

    It truly does feel like “If we can’t hump you we’ll destroy you”. So bend over everyone, the US has a foreign policy it wants to introduce to you very intimately.

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    Mute David Linehan
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:31 PM

    Smashing point

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    Mute Simon Jester
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 11:06 PM

    I’m sure Iran or N Korea might help out??

    3
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    Mute Ryan Murphy
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:14 PM

    He should have got straight on to Minister Shatter.

    He seems to sign off on them by the thousand.

    111
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    Mute _doesnotcompute
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:44 PM

    Ignorant, misinformed comment. Ireland actually has one of the highest rejection rates for asylum seekers in all of Europe

    65
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    Mute Ryan Murphy
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:48 PM

    Rejection does not equal deportation, as I’m sure you’re perfectly well aware.

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    Mute John O'Neill
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:40 PM

    I don’t blame your hair for deserting a brain like yours Ryan…

    31
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    Mute Free Ireland
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:03 PM

    We have the highest rate of immigration per head then any other eu state, that’s why we reject a lot.

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    Mute PapaQuebec
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:19 PM

    And one of the lowest rates of deportation.

    21
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    Mute Ryan Murphy
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:36 PM

    If I was you John, I’d stick to the angling rather than attempts at standup comedy, interspersed with personal insults and unfunny remarks.

    If we’re lucky, you may fall in.

    17
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    Mute John O'Neill
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 10:12 PM

    Seems I stuck a hook in you though….

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    Mute John O'Neill
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 10:21 PM

    I happen to have no respect for racists…

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    Mute Gearóid O Machain
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 10:49 PM

    yes alan would have organised for Edwards asylum here alright

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    Mute Ryan Murphy
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 11:38 PM

    Please point out the racism in my remarks. Consider it a challenge if you like, I’d imagine you have precious little of that these days.

    I’ll give you a helpful hint or two along the way; there is nothing racist, xenophobic or even wrong with the concept of supporting a cohesive and progressive policy on immigration. Our population has swelled by half a million, with up to one in four children now being born to parents (originally) from outside the state. Despite what grasping quangos and some p1ssed off Offaly leftie thinks, I reckon the Irish people have been both stoic and welcoming for the most part in the face of such a sweeping and swift demographic change.

    I also think that idiots who shout racism and xenophobia without having a clue what either really means, or indeed the usual suspects who line up on threads like these to denigrate their own country, are making far less of a contribution than (thankfully) many of the half a million or so who have ended up on our shores in the first place.

    So, yeah-call me a racist all you like, it says more about you than it does about me.

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    Mute John O'Neill
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    Jul 3rd 2013, 12:34 AM

    Ryan, how’re yawl down in Cork boy?
    Thank you for describing me as an Offaly leftie, ( this makes me swell with pride), and notifying me of one of my hobbies. Another of my hobbies is irritating the, “I’m not a racist, but…” crowd like yourself.
    I presume you’ll continue to creep and stalk me on the Internet and red thumb all my comments.
    …Therefore my work here is done…

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    Mute Leonard Annett
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:25 PM

    Would it not make more sense to consider asylum to people out of the state rather than in the state?

    99
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    Mute JayK
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:27 PM

    I imagine every state would then receive thousands of applications with people hedging their bets and applying everywhere.

    35
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    Mute John O'Neill
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:37 PM

    I was going to write something serious about Irish refugee legislation being designed to prevent asylum being given, whether or not the applicant is a worthy candidate or not, but I’m laughing too much after reading the last line of the report:
    Kenny responded that he had not met Cascarino’s grandmother and that he did not know “whether she was fictitious or not”.
    What’s he going to do about it if he meets her and she turns out to be fictitious??

    45
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    Mute Eug J Cummins
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:46 PM

    Last thing this government needs is someone who is going to tell the truth

    86
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    Mute Larry T Bird
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:40 PM

    Interesting.
    A person with a valid case for asylum, fully documented and of employment value to the State.

    On the other hand, others turn up and are allowed in with :
    1- a hard luck story,
    2- ‘the dog ate my homework excuse’ for no papers,
    3- a wonderful anecdote about how they were chased from their village barefoot with nothing but their underwear and and a toothbrush

    Forgetting to say how they flew to Europe, how they have relations dotted across other ‘developed’ countries, and have plenty of money back in their HOME country.

    78
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    Mute _doesnotcompute
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:48 PM

    @Larry T Bird. Fortunately ORAC sees through the bullsh*t stories you’ve described and rejects over 90% of asylum requests:

    http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-asylum-seekers-eu-955725-Jun2013/

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    Mute Larry T Bird
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 6:19 PM

    @doesnotcompute
    Agreed.
    However it took naive Paddy 10 years to cop on and we are now left with the result;
    Many of the useful people have now left and many of the useless remain here with no option/intention of moving on and continuing their economic-migrant holiday

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    Mute censored
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:00 PM

    The vast majority of the “useless” people remaining in Ireland are actually Irish. I would so far as to suggest that most of the racists are pretty useless themselves.

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    Mute R H Beige Lark
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:00 PM

    @Larry – an economic migrant doesn’t need to apply for asylum.

    2
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    Mute PapaQuebec
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:23 PM

    But we still deport virtually none of the failed claimants.

    14
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    Mute Larry T Bird
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 9:12 PM

    @Censored
    Fully agree, many useles Irish too. You couldn’t resist the old moral highground pavlovian response of ‘racist’

    @RH
    yes I know this.
    What is presented as an asylum / refugee application, in reality (in many cases) is an ecnomic migrant with a well-learned script from the internet

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    Mute censored
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:45 PM

    Snowden probably trying to sow confusion about his next steps. He would know that Ireland is unlikely to put morality ahead of moolah. Unlike Iceland, again.

    41
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    Mute Frank Brady
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:45 PM

    We are all living In one big asylum here.One more wont make much difference

    37
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    Mute Think Book
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:24 PM

    The Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner (ORAC) website says “Persons who do not present themselves at the frontiers of the State may apply directly at the ORAC office in Dublin.”
    Does this mean Snowden could make a postal application directly to the Dublin office?
    http://www.orac.ie/website/orac/oracwebsite.nsf/page/refugeestatusdetermination-legalandadministrativeframeworkfordecisionmaking-en

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    Mute david hughes
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:29 PM

    Means if you manage to sneak into the country then present in person

    46
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    Mute Scarr
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:41 PM

    Frontiers of the country would most likely mean embassies. So if Russia let him in, then he can go to an embassy in person and apply.

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    Mute _doesnotcompute
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:46 PM

    @Think Book – that means persons who have bypassed the frontiers of the State by entering the State clandestinely

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    Mute John Murphy
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:18 PM

    He’s not technically in Russia though.

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    Mute Denise Friary
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:27 PM

    We are No.53 state of America and Britain is No.52 so he has no chance here.

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    Mute Briain de Seadhach
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:25 PM

    And which is 51, pray?

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    Mute Elizabeth Gibson
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:48 PM

    Scotland of course Briain. Did you not see the Samuel L. Jackson movie? ;)

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    Mute censored
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:02 PM

    Well you don’t have much experience of “America” if you think Irish life resembles. But we can always hope.

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    Mute GOLDEN ARMS
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 11:44 PM

    Wasnt it Liverpool Elizabeth? The 51st state..?

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    Mute Joe Sixtwo
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:12 PM

    That was a fast asylum assessment. Pamela Izevbekha assessment costed the taxpayer a fortune and she was a dishonest parasite.

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    Mute Ian Jennings
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    Jul 3rd 2013, 1:51 AM

    The speed his application was dealt with may have something to do with the fact that he didn’t satisfy the main requirement for making an application i.e. being in the country. Therefore, his application never really existed. Maybe read the article next time.

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    Mute NWA
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:34 PM

    I’d rethink the Republic of Ireland if i were you Snowden. Sooner of later, after living in the Republic as an Asylum seekers, you’d be running back to the hands of the US for refuge and saccor away from these diabolical, unrefined and hard-wired anti immigrant natives.
    Enda Kenny wouldn’t accede to Snowden’s request – it’s all talk ; you can only begin to imagine the repercussions. Kenny’s nightmare would begin when the nation wakes up to 50,000 illegal Irish deportees fresh from America back home ,the next day.

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    Mute Gggordon
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:45 PM

    They want rid of the Seanad but keep the Dail open for idiotic pointless statements like Cascarino’s passport … The mind boggles ..

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    Mute Killian Lynch
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:49 PM

    The people of Clare Daly’s constituency know what to do then.

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    Mute Roman RomanOwski
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:07 PM

    I love my pug and this is valid info. Hahaha

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    Mute Lisa Flavin
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 6:01 PM

    For that Roman I give you a thumbs up

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    Mute Michael Carroll
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:26 PM

    To qualify for asylum you have to be living here first. Then you to get as much as you can for as long as you can from the State for free before you are considered.

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    Mute mr_bean_007
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:22 PM

    F*ck diplomacy!!!! Politicians of late seem to care more about keeping the neighbours happy rather than doing what is actually the right thing to do…

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    Mute Pablo
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:53 PM

    Take him in quick, we can use him as a bargaining tool when we want to extradite Drumm

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    Mute Denise Friary
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:31 PM

    Enda should have done the Yanks a favour and allowed Snowden in to Ireland.Then it would have been purple hearts all around for the Irish govertment.

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    Mute gingerman
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:31 PM

    The guy is not a fugitive, he is an Asylum seeker

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    Mute Maurice Dodd
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:29 PM

    Lol just get on a plane and come on over never fails

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    Mute Ben Gunn
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:15 PM

    We have enough traitors of our own without taking in anyone else’s.

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    Mute Jonny Rigley
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:30 PM

    Grow a brain

    11
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    Mute SteveW
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 7:30 PM

    Why doesn’t he just go ask a corrupt country where the politicians are gangsters? Oh wait……

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    Mute Pat Fitzgerald
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:16 PM

    He can have Endas place and spot etc since enda is kissing euro a@@ …

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    Mute orla
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 11:25 PM

    Of course…but welcome anyone who has arrived,in Ireland, without checking their background,and who turn out to be x cons and murderers,thank you,!No proper controls.

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    Mute Anthony Brady
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:52 PM

    I thought an asylum application legally was to be made at the first safe port of call? Would that not rule us out as an option?

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    Mute Fagan Fagan
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 5:38 PM

    You just know that kenny n co are delighted to say no

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    Mute Paul Radburn
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 4:44 PM

    But sure why not let him in, look at the state of the country as it is!

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    Mute Joan Featherstone
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    Jul 2nd 2013, 8:29 PM

    Fcukin scaredy cats, like the rest of the world…afraid to stand up to the bully boy USA!

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    Mute Popeye
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    Jul 3rd 2013, 1:04 AM

    Worth mentioning that under international law, a country’s embassy is considered that country’s soil and as such – its lawful jurisdiction. So it is wrong for Enda Kenny to say otherwise.

    There is nothing under law to stop anyone applying for asylum at an Irish embassy, however, technically he would need to do so in person himself at the embassy, not through an intermediary as he did so in this case.
    That would mean he would also have to exit the transit terminal in Russia, which brings its own problems as he currently holds no visa or valid passport.

    I would also guess the Irish officials at the Russian embassy would just snub him anyway and refuse to accept his application, regardless of law.
    I know this from personal experience as in the past I’ve had to seek help and safety of my own Irish embassies in a number of countries, only to be told more or less to f’off and in turn relied on Canadian embassies and once the British embassy. I’m neither Canadian or British. Our embassies overseas are an absolute joke.

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    Mute orla
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    Jul 4th 2013, 6:14 PM

    The latest on this story is that Anna Chapman,Russian Spy has preposed fo Edward Snowen,a match made in spy land!

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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    Jul 3rd 2013, 5:36 AM

    Shpineless.

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