Advertisement

We need your help now

Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.

You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.

If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.

Shutterstock/MikeDotta

50-50 chance world will breach 1.5 degrees Celsius warming within five years, UN warns

The World Meteorological Organization said there is a 93% chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record.

LAST UPDATE | 10 May 2022

THERE IS A 50-50 chance that global temperatures will temporarily breach the benchmark of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years, the United Nations has warned.

The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2 Celsius above levels measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

“The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in an annual climate update.

The WMO put the likelihood at 48%, and said it was increasing with time.

An average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level across a multi-year period would breach the Paris aspirational target.

There is a 93% chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking, said the WMO.

The chance of the five-year temperature average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) was also put at 93%.

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,” said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.

“The 1.5 degrees Celsius figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.”

‘Edging ever closer’

The Paris Agreement level of 1.5 degrees Celsius refers to long-term warming, but temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures rise.

“A single year of exceedance above 1.5C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5C could be exceeded for an extended period,” said Leon Hermanson, of Britain’s Met Office national weather service, who led the report.

The average global temperature in 2021 was around 1.11 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to provisional WMO figures.

The report said that back-to-back La Nina events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures.

However, this was only temporary and did not reverse the long-term global warming trend.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every two to seven years.

The effect has widespread impacts on weather around the world – typically the opposite impacts to the El Nino warming phase in the Southern Oscillation cycle.

Any development of an El Nino event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, said the WMO.

‘Last chance saloon’

John Sweeney, Emeritus Professor of Geography at Maynooth University, said its incumbent on us to take the WMO warning very seriously as we’re approaching the “last chance saloon” on the climate front.

“We’re on the edge of the climate cliff. The 1.5 degree threshold that we will exceed probably in the next five to 10 years, we will be excceding consistently between 2020 and 2050,” Professor Sweeney told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland.

“That bodes very badly for how we will cope with a sustainable lifestyle, not just in Ireland, but in many parts of the world because 1.5 degrees is the global average.

“For many parts of the world that means three and four degrees of warming. That eliminates food supplies in some parts of the world, it makes intolerable living conditions in other parts of the world.

Even for us in Ireland, it threatens our climatic system and the stability that we’ve had historically from our position on the Atlantic.

Greenhouse gas link

The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than pre-industrial levels.

There is only a 10 percent chance of the five-year mean exceeding the 1.5C threshold.

“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise,” said Taalas.

“And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme.

“Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us.”

Meanwhile, predicted precipitation patterns for 2022, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of drier conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, and wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, northeastern Brazil, and Australia.

© AFP 2022

Author
View 45 comments
Close
45 Comments
This is YOUR comments community. Stay civil, stay constructive, stay on topic. Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy here before taking part.
Leave a Comment
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Kerry Blake
    Favourite Kerry Blake
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 7:38 PM

    Best of luck Nicola in your journey. Respect!

    170
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute P C
    Favourite P C
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 8:50 PM

    mental health problems seem to be the explanation for all issues facing people today.
    While most are real, some use it as an excuse.

    88
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Kerry Blake
    Favourite Kerry Blake
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 9:00 PM

    @P C: Well it’s great to read you have never suffered from mental health issues P C unlike a lot of people in Ireland…..

    31
    See 2 more replies ▾
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Brendan Gordon
    Favourite Brendan Gordon
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 9:30 PM

    @Kerry Blake: well in fairness when you hear people using adhd or depression as a defence for premeditated rape as was seen in a case this year you have to ask questions. I don’t think he’s belittling the conditions, rather the way some people abuse them to justify/cover for their own actions. It creates a toxic environment discouraging people from talking openly because people will associate them with criminality and violence because somebody tried to hide behind having the same condition as them.

    73
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Suzie Sunshine
    Favourite Suzie Sunshine
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 10:06 PM

    @Brendan Gordon: that’s exactly what he meant ..

    21
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Tnka Tanzy
    Favourite Tnka Tanzy
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 7:40 PM

    I was watching the news with my 11yr old daughter. The news story was about a man that had murdered his neighbour, the guys defence was he suffered with depression. I was lucky my daughter happened to be with me and not watching the TV alone. I had to explain to my daughter that there was all types of depression. I can only imagine what would have been going trough her mind if I hadn’t explained.

    114
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute BrianMcB
    Favourite BrianMcB
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 8:34 PM

    ‘I hate mental health being used in the media as an explanation for crime’ Could not agree more and you are not alone: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/german-terror-attacks-mental-illness-religion-isis-terrorism-scapegoats-a7155366.html

    How many ISIS terrorists have been found to suffer from mental health issues recently?

    82
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Carm(Orange Vampire)
    Favourite Carm(Orange Vampire)
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 9:36 PM

    I totally agree. I live with depression and anxiety. I’m in my 40′s and have recently been told I have both avoidant and boderline personality disorder. For me it explains a lot but the public portrait of these things has definitely made it a difficult diagnosis to accept. Yet #IAmStillMe

    54
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Andi Black
    Favourite Andi Black
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 11:31 PM

    Isolation – Serious help is needed. There are limited services for many living in rural Ireland. With no personal or rural public transport, life can be very hard. Simple things like keeping a medical appointment can be virtually impossible because of taxi costs. Not everyone has a kind family member or friend to drive them to their destination. Rural dwellers are not looking for a free transport service; they don’t mind paying for a reasonable and dependable service. Getting out and about even once a week would help so many.

    24
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Eileen Sinnott
    Favourite Eileen Sinnott
    Report
    Aug 7th 2017, 10:40 PM

    Well done.. Yes you’re right our mental health problems should not define use..we have to learn how to live with it, learn out to manage our every day lives with mental health as part of it..coping skills is a very important part !!

    18
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Ellen Ni Dhunai
    Favourite Ellen Ni Dhunai
    Report
    Aug 8th 2017, 7:09 AM

    Good woman Nic! Xxx

    9
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Harold Maio
    Favourite Harold Maio
    Report
    Aug 8th 2017, 2:36 AM

    —-Column: ‘I hate mental health being used in the media as an explanation for crime’

    “An excuse for crime?”

    I fail to see that it is.

    3
Submit a report
Please help us understand how this comment violates our community guidelines.
Thank you for the feedback
Your feedback has been sent to our team for review.

Leave a commentcancel

 
JournalTv
News in 60 seconds