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LAST UPDATE | 10 May 2022
THERE IS A 50-50 chance that global temperatures will temporarily breach the benchmark of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years, the United Nations has warned.
The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2 Celsius above levels measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.
“The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in an annual climate update.
The WMO put the likelihood at 48%, and said it was increasing with time.
An average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level across a multi-year period would breach the Paris aspirational target.
There is a 93% chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking, said the WMO.
The chance of the five-year temperature average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) was also put at 93%.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,” said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.
“The 1.5 degrees Celsius figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.”
‘Edging ever closer’
The Paris Agreement level of 1.5 degrees Celsius refers to long-term warming, but temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures rise.
“A single year of exceedance above 1.5C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5C could be exceeded for an extended period,” said Leon Hermanson, of Britain’s Met Office national weather service, who led the report.
The average global temperature in 2021 was around 1.11 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to provisional WMO figures.
The report said that back-to-back La Nina events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures.
However, this was only temporary and did not reverse the long-term global warming trend.
La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every two to seven years.
The effect has widespread impacts on weather around the world – typically the opposite impacts to the El Nino warming phase in the Southern Oscillation cycle.
Any development of an El Nino event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, said the WMO.
‘Last chance saloon’
John Sweeney, Emeritus Professor of Geography at Maynooth University, said its incumbent on us to take the WMO warning very seriously as we’re approaching the “last chance saloon” on the climate front.
“We’re on the edge of the climate cliff. The 1.5 degree threshold that we will exceed probably in the next five to 10 years, we will be excceding consistently between 2020 and 2050,” Professor Sweeney told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland.
“That bodes very badly for how we will cope with a sustainable lifestyle, not just in Ireland, but in many parts of the world because 1.5 degrees is the global average.
“For many parts of the world that means three and four degrees of warming. That eliminates food supplies in some parts of the world, it makes intolerable living conditions in other parts of the world.
Even for us in Ireland, it threatens our climatic system and the stability that we’ve had historically from our position on the Atlantic.
Greenhouse gas link
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than pre-industrial levels.
There is only a 10 percent chance of the five-year mean exceeding the 1.5C threshold.
“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise,” said Taalas.
“And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme.
“Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us.”
Meanwhile, predicted precipitation patterns for 2022, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of drier conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, and wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, northeastern Brazil, and Australia.
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Well if they stopped chasing the small fish and went after the real polluters you might have some chance. While all these so called govt climate activists keep flying in private jets and keep completely unnescessary highly polluting forms of transport like cruise liners going while telling people they have to share cars going to work it’s all bull. It seems to me that all these policy changes smack of a do as I say not as I do and it adversely affects the small time emitters. The whole world knows at this stage that the top 10% of the world’s weathiest people account for about 80% of the world’s carbon output but the rest of us have pay for their extravagance
@Michael McGrath: what activists are flying in private jets? None, I daresay. And we, in Ireland, are in that top 10% of the worlds wealthiest who are polluting the most.
I agree, the emissions from cruise ships need to be tackled, but so do cars. Whataboutery will not solve the problem, we need to address it from ALL angles, and immediately. Our children won’t have a future otherwise.
@Michael McGrath: you’d have a point if you stopped using such hyperboles and showed such obvious bias.
@Urban Living Dublin: *stopped showing
@Steve: whataboutery won’t solve the problem, that’s right. It will get lots of sf candidates elected though. Always a place for whataboutery. Nope, not living rent free in my hear either before anyone jumps on. Such a tired retort as well.
@Steve: if you read what I said properly I said “so called GOVT climate activists” ie Éamonn Ryan, Boris Johnson, Justin Trudeau and on who most certainly did fly in to COP in private jets. And stop with this whataboutery bollox it’s not whataboutery to question questionable policy. WE are not cutting down and burning forests big business is, WE are not giving planning permission for and building data centres our govt and big business are. I can go on and on. By the by if every car in the world stopped driving in the morning it would have little or no effect on the world’s carbon footprint. All the virtue signalling on here and the emotional please think of the children crap is the same rubbish the green party here go on with instead of doing something proper about it. It’s the usual dump the problem on the taxpayer and let him solve it by taxing the arse out of his pants
@Urban Living Dublin: The one person on here that comments with obvious bias is you. They have created an urban rural divide over this by subsidising public transport which really only benefits city dwellers and continue to shaft the rest of us with his insistence on continuing with this stupid carbon tax which has most definitely not being ring fenced for anything other than govt coffers as was pointed out in the Dáil to utter silence from Ryan
@Steve: many A list celebs who are speak out for climate change still fly private and hire super yachts, as do global leaders (fly privately)…… we in ireland are among the most polluting per capita. But a huge chunk of our co2 is agriculture….. We also have a minuscule footprint on the world stage compared to the us, china, india, brazil …. Etc. Every bit helps but realistically were p1$$ing into the wind here unless these much bigger polluting economies act…… Were towing the line in Ireland as opposed to making a significant difference to climate change.
@Michael McGrath: bang on point!
@Paul Hedderman: Yes, the the Co2 we produce by agriculture feeds 50 million people. We stop in Ireland only moves this Co2 to somewhere else, like Brazil that will end up producing more Co2. I hate this bull narrative that in Ireland we produce more pollution per capita, I say we save Co2 by producing food in Europe for Europe.
@Michael McGrath:
Funnily enough, anyone with a net worth of over €80,000 is considered in the top 10% globally. That’s the vast majority of Irish taxpayers.
@Alan Wright: Putting it in context for the other poster that its not all cars, vans, heating….. Etc……. That aside the whole world would benefit from reducing meat consumption, for personal health and for the environment.
It’s getting more expensive to heat homes in Ireland.Any increase in Winter temperatures here would be welcomed.
@Roger Bond:
Unfortunately it also comes with increased summer temperatures so you will be paying for air con soon. Oh and your house might flood and roof blow off. There are no benefits to this.
@Tim Pot: Yeah right. ‘Cause in Central Europe where average temperatures are (and have always been) higher than here everybody has air conditioning, citizens have become swamp people and folks routinely find the roofs over their heads blown off when they return from work at the end of the day.
Let’s hope Ryan is asleep he seems to think more taxes will solve all our problems
@James Delaney: Even while he sleeps he is dreaming up new taxes for us
Another gentle reminder that nature doesn’t care much for our infighting, politics and ideologies. Our kids will not look back kindly on this either.
@Urban Living Dublin: really will they? Judging by amount of cars parked blocking both sides of the road at my local secondary school the kids are just as bad. Seems the bus is to good for them. Let’s not forget all the data centers needed for their tiktoks and Instagram and all their online lives. Maybe the kids should take a look at themselves before blaming their parents.
@Roy Dowling: So you are proposing to demand that young kids, who we don’t trust with a myriad of responsibilities like drinking, driving, voting etc, to consider the carbon footprint of their tiktok/instagram use? All while ignoring the fact that hundreds of thousands of children have already taken the lead on climate campaigning, have been changing their own behaviour and have had persuaded their parents to consider to do the same.
Fun childhood you must’ve had…
@Urban Living Dublin: I had a great childhood born in the mid 80′s grew up playing outside when the street lights came on I knew to go home. I walked to primary school and took the bus to secondary school. Had a part-time job after school since I was 15. Compare that to kids today? My son is 7. School has already started to teach hin on his carbon footprint and what he can do for the environment. They have been doing this for years. So yes teenagers in secondary school who get lifts to school from a parent and have a massive online life instead of a real life outdoor are more that educated about their carbon footprint and what they can do to reduce theirs for their futures.
@Roy Dowling: Environmental education is perfectly fine and should be encouraged. However, your comment simply comes across as a bit spiteful. Bit like demanding your five-year-old that he should pull his socks up and look after his own fate while daddy doesn’t want to stop driving his massive SUV and stop flying to Lanzarote five times a year.
I’m deeply impressed by the number of kids who remind their parents of the family’s climate obligations, while also demanding action from companies and governments. I cannot remember the last time kids rallied behind a cause in such large numbers with such passion.
@Urban Living Dublin: where did I mention 5 year olds. Since when did 5 year olds go to secondary schools?
@Roy Dowling: You can’t compare living in the 80′s to today. Most families had one car and that was used to get to work not school runs. The digital distractions weren’t there so kids played outside – but our generation and below invented all these online distractions and now we pass them onto our kids who have no concept of the lives we had.
We can’t be blaming the youth of today for the world they were born into, but we can certainly encourage them to make it a greener place. Nit picking about them using an iphone or being on tiktok when they voice concerns about the environment will only encourage inertia..
These numb skulls can’t accurately predict the weather for the coming week, but expect us to believe them when they tell us what’s going to happen in 5 year’s time.
@Ger O’Reilly: It’s shocking the amount of people that don’t understand the difference between weather and climate.
@FlyingDogThing: Yeah, especially politicians and media who also confuse the two (but only when it suits them) in order to advance the “climate action” agenda!
But but the carbon tax
@Metaljester: you mean the ongoing pick pocketing of those living in rural areas because as with all green projects, they put the cart before the horse?
We contribute 0.1% of emissions, whatever do mean next to nothing. The Green think we contribute close to 100% the way they speak.
@Munster1: *whatever we do means next to nothing.
@Munster1: It’s a lovely idea that our population is small, so we can ignore our obligations, but it’s not true – the average Irish person emits over 7.5 tons of Co2 per year (2019 figures), whereas, people in (eg) Malawi emit 0.09 tons (90kg)/year. While we’re doing ok compared to more selfish countries like the US (almost 17 tons/year), everyone in every country needs to make better/different decisions about the heating/cooling we use, food types we eat, clothes we choose, daily transport, air-travel and more. Every decision makes a difference, for better or worse, and cumulative decisions change systems and economies. If we had done more 30 years ago, we wouldn’t need to be as mindful now, but there is no longer any time to spare.
Sure, not everyone in Ireland can afford to do it all, but the amount of people still (eg) taking multiple flights per year, and buying expensive diesel SUVs, when they could easily afford to make a better vehicle choice is still sickening.
Good one James, haven’t heard that one before, thing is no matter who is in government we are obliged to follow EU recommendations. So if and when Sinn Fein are running the country they will still have to implement taxes etc
@Alan Biddulph: You’re assuming James et al. have the ability to think ahead and anticipate the outcome you are stating here. But if they indeed would have this ability, they’d also wouldn’t be so dismissive of the environmental challenges we face.
@Urban Living Dublin: usual condescending bollix from yourself.
@Urban Living Dublin: You must have a lot of time on your hands. I see you talking pure tripe every comment you make. Everyone from the countryside should all just sell up and move to cities to save the planet.
Sure the minister for turf yis all voted for will solve your problem
Obviously. It either will or won’t. Stüpid headline.
So, stüpid without the umlaut makes the sentence above a 9 on the meter but stüpid with the umlaut makes it only 1.5. Come on ffs.
Anybody with some time to spare and access to internet should do themselves a favor and compare say 2020 average temperatures with historical data from 2010, 2000, 1990 and so on. Such data is still freely available. Yes global warming is real, but the effects are nowhere near the doomsday scenario mass media and politicians are portraying in order to justify soaring living costs.
Another way of looking at it: if global warming is a crisis now, it was also a crisis 10 or even 20 years ago. Why the scaremongering in the last 10 months? The Covid bill is due, that’s why!
Oh, and don’t bring up PER CAPITA emissions! Per capita emissions make as much sense as per capita shoe size.
We won’t have to worry too much about heating and cutting turf if it’s to get hotter..so many of us are sick of hearing about climate change,we’re been taxed for anything the Greens can think of,and if we were to clear this Country of everything that causes climate change it still wouldn’t make a difference to the over all results in the world,but of course with the useless leaders we have,they like to show the EU,look what great boys we are in Ireland,think of us when we retire,and give us a handy job for big money,I don’t think the Greens got a seat up the North,their actually turning people against it,with all the bull that’s going on
@Kate Peters: And the way the Greens are going on this side of the border, they will not get a seat down here either next time around.
Now that is not to say that there is no place for a Green based party, but it needs to be tempered with some common sense. As you said yourself, we could take everything out that contributes to climate change in this country, and not make a difference globally, and the current embodiment of the Green party does not realise that. They tax and charge the Irish people on top of the global increases of a commodity that can not be avoided, especially in rural areas, pushing renewable alternatives furthercout of
@Kate Peters: further out of reach financially.
It’s already too late IMO
I would love it if somebody could make a list of all the predictions that have been made about the climate over the past 100 years and see how many of them have happened. Although 5 years is a nice short number they are normally much longer 20,30,50 years, so we’ll see in 2027.
Capitalism can’t make the changes necessary to save the world from what an inevitable climate catastrophe. Too much greed and finger pointing for it to ever happen. You even see it on these comment pages from people asking why they should make sacrifices when others visibly aren’t, the same problem with a pandemic the world tried and failed to contain for much the same reason.
By the time the world realises it’ll be far too late.
have your say