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THE FIRST CASES of a new Covid variant of concern have been detected in Ireland.
The European Centre for Disease Control earlier this month labelled BA.4 and BA.5 as variants of concern, with chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan confirming that two cases of BA.4 were identified in Ireland earlier this month.
What are these variants, what do we know about them, and what type of impact could they have?
BA.4 and BA.5 are sublineages of Omicron (as is BA.2, currently dominant in Ireland and what caused our most recent post-Christmas wave of infection). This means they are not genetically distinct enough from Omicron to be classed as a different variant such as Delta or Alpha, but contain some genetic mutations.
There are many, many more sublineages of Omicron, most of which cause little or no concern, but BA.4 and BA.5 have stood out to scientists. They first emerged in January and February of this year.
The sublineages are believed to be responsible for a renewed wave of infection in South Africa which started in early May. The data currently indicates that this is less severe than its previous record-breaking Omicron wave, and there are even signs it is slowing.
The sublineages have now started to picked up more frequently in Europe, where they account for an increasing proportion of cases in countries like Austria, Germany, and – where it is now dominant – Portugal.
Why is it spreading?
It takes time to learn about new variants, but what’s currently apparent is that BA.4 and BA.5 have the potential to cause another wave of infection through immune escape.
These sublineages are sufficiently different from previous Omicron sublineages that our immune system might not be able to recognise them as well if you’ve already been infected with Omicron – but not anywhere to same extent as when a truly ‘new’ variant previously arrived on the scene, like Alpha, Delta, or BA.1 Omicron.
There is also the basic fact that immunity from previous Omicron waves is starting to wane.
If you haven’t been infected with Omicron, you remain just as susceptible to a breakthrough infection from these sublineages, regardless of which one we’re dealing with.
If you are fully vaccinated and boosted, you will still have strong protection against severe illness.
There is currently no evidence that BA.4 and BA.5 cause more severe illness than previous Omicron sublineages (that data takes time to gather), although it still has the potential to be a debilitating and potentially fatal illness.
There is some evidence to suggest that not only is there an increased chance of immune escape, but the sublineages are also more transmissible.
What does this mean for Ireland?
While just two cases of BA.4 have been detected, Ireland is fully analysing few individual cases to determine with variant is responsible, so it is highly likely it is responsible for more cases than is currently apparent.
If BA.4 and BA.5 have an advantage over BA.2, which by all accounts they appear to, one will eventually become the dominant variant in Ireland, especially when a significant number of protections against the spread of Covid-19 have been removed or made voluntary in Ireland.
Speaking more generally about Europe, the ECDC said the variants “could cause a significant overall increase in Covid-19 cases in the EU/EEA in the coming weeks and months”.
As in previous waves, if Covid-19 case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.
How Ireland could fare isn’t yet clear – the ECDC’s warning is clear, that an uptick in infections can be expected.
While some Omicron immunity is waning, there are a lot more people with some level of protection against the variant than when it first arrived in Ireland.
Many people more at risk of severe illness have also received another booster since then. Another factor is that South Africa and Portugal didn’t have as pronounced a BA.2 wave as Ireland did, and BA.2 is more similar to the new variants of concern than BA.1.
Hospitals could remain better protected, and there is no suggestion of new restrictions, but wider societal disruption similar to what was experienced during the BA.2 wave remains a possibility.
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Hardly surprising, this government has no interest in reducing Ireland’s carbon footprint other than by taxing residents on so called green initiatives. The waste in government departments & their quangos could save the country billions.
@@murraymitchell@mastodon.scot: Blatantly untrue. Read something other than Journal comments. I’m all for criticising the government, particularly for this failure to produce a climate plan, but this idea that it’s all about tax… just search online and you will find plenty of other strategies.
@@murraymitchell@mastodon.scot: our footprint is practically non existent. Its worst in poor countries whos citizens have frankly more important things to worry about, like putting food on the table and a roof over their heads. What can we reasonably do that we arent already doing? finding out that all the plastics we go to the trouble of seperating ends up in the same dump incinerator isnt helping, and i am not going electric until im forced to, seeing as most people only get them as a show off status symbol of wealth and ‘caring’. Im sick of the hypocrisy, there are very few people who really walk the walk on climate change, except that American actor from the 80s whos been driving an electric car for over 30 years
@Nicholas McMurry: it’s really about tax and power.
Yeah great I can see where this is going!!
The tax and the Greens. Rebate due Eamo?
@Mary Nugent: Eamo the green knight in shining armour coming to the rescue. Get stuffed.
@Paul Gorry: obviously not you Mary but the cretan mr Ryan.
The world is 15% more green than it was 20 years ago (size of the USA) simply because of more co2 in the atmosphere as plants are growing in semi arid regions desertification is not as extreme as they once believed it would be. 300 to 400 part’s per million co2 has been normal on earth previously and co2 levels have been higher before. Greta, eamon and the green multinational push will just steam roll us all and mother nature will always catch us all eventually.
@Jim Casey: The last time carbon levels were as high as they are now was 3 million years ago. There was no ice at the poles, and sea levels were at least 10m higher than today. The current rate of change in carbon levels is many times higher than any historical change that has been recorded. Mother nature may indeed catch us all, but removal of all the excess carbon from the atmosphere will take centuries.
@Nicholas McMurry: and nature will beat anything we do ……. simple put if we do nothing or something here in little Ireland it will means zero… it depends on China mostly and she has greened deserts despite opening a new coal power plant every week. Its a geopolitical thing as much as a climate crisis …….to stop climate change the poorest people must be made more wealthy so that they can see the benefits of been green and not just trying to survive. When we become more equal in terms of wealth then climate change might be tackled more effectively
@Jim Casey: Where’s your science? Nature will take centuries according to the available evidence. Do you have better information? Becoming greener is a necessary element of becoming more equal.
@Nicholas McMurry: And nature will reduce the carbon levels in centuries only if we stop pumping it into the atmosphere now.
@Nicholas McMurry: there facts ……which can be related to disciplines other than science…….. make the poor more wealthy and they’ll be more inclined to become green. No science needed
15 minute city, with a digital freedom pass, linked to your carbon credits, medical status all centrally controlled CBDC.
@O’Brien: sounds like a prison!
Hush, don’t wake Eamon Ryan, he might actually get something done that helps people
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