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LUDOVIC MARIN

French election projections see Macron’s centrists keep a majority

More than 6,000 candidates were running for 577 seats in France’s National Assembly in a first round of elections yeterday.

LAST UPDATE | 13 Jun 2022

FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL Macron and his allies have commenced a crucial week of campaigning to save their parliamentary majority, under threat after a first round of voting that galvanised a newly formed leftwing alliance.

A strong showing by the left-wing NUPES coalition and gains by the far-right made it likely that Macron’s “Ensemble” (Together) alliance could lose dozens of National Assembly seats in the second round of voting next Sunday.

“Macron’s absolute majority threatened,” Le Monde said in a front-page banner headline, also noting the record-low turnout of just 47.5 percent.

Macron’s top lieutenants vowed to campaign hard against the “extremist” pledges of NUPES’s leader, the hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon.

“We’re going to make every effort to get a clear and strong majority, France needs it,” his technocrat Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said in Calvados, northwest France, where she is running for her first parliament seat ever.

“There is a spending power crisis … we have a war at Europe’s doorstep, we need stability,” she said.

But for the left, which scored neck-and-neck with Macron’s alliance in the popular vote at just over 25 percent each, “the second round is turning into an anti-Macron referendum,” Eric Coquerel, a leading NUPES candidate, told LCP television.

Based on Sunday’s results, Macron and his allies could emerge with 255-295 parliament seats, polling firms projected, well below the 345 it has currently.

Should Macron fail to win the 289 seats that would give him an absolute majority, he would need to win over right-wing opponents such as the Republicans for every legislative vote.

Macron will have to change his “vertical” style and work with “groups other than those who support him”, political scientist Pascal Perrineau told AFPTV on Monday, while pollster Frederic Dabi said that a majority of voters appeared to want to deny Macron a parliamentary majority.

If so, that could complicate the centrist’s plans for pushing back the retirement age to 65 as part of a pensions overhaul, as well as tax cuts or welfare reform.

Ministers in trouble

Few analysts believe NUPES could secure its own majority, producing a “cohabitation” in which Melenchon would become prime minister and Macron would have a free hand only in international and defence policy.

But Melenchon does appear to have siphoned off voters disappointed with Macron’s rightward tack in recent years, which earned the former investment banker the label of “president of the rich.”

“It’s not what is going to happen next Sunday, but we know that we’re close to seeing the majority forced into a minority,” veteran political expert Dominique Reynie at the Fondapol institute told Europe 1 radio.

Melenchon, who wants to lower the retirement age to 60 from 62, hike the minimum wage and create new taxes on the wealthy, would need to mobilise many more young voters, in particular, who stayed home in droves on Sunday.

Polling firms project that NUPES would hold 150-210 seats in the new parliament, making it the biggest opposition group.

Adding to Macron’s worries: at least three of the 15 cabinet ministers running for parliament seats appear to be in trouble.

His high-profile Europe Minister Clement Beaune, Ecology Transition Minister Amelie de Montchalin, and Stanislas Guerini, Macron’s party chief and civil service minister, are also at risk of losing next Sunday.

Ministers who fail to get elected will have to resign, according to French political conventions which Macron has vowed to uphold.

If his Together alliance fails to secure an absolute majority, its key players such as the popular former prime minister Edouard Philippe may demand greater sway in his cabinet.

That could result in a government reshuffle just a few weeks after Macron nominated Borne in the wake of his April re-election.

© AFP 2022

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    Mute Declan Byrne
    Favourite Declan Byrne
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    Feb 4th 2014, 8:24 AM

    Let me tell you about separation amd divorce well there is only one winner that is solicitors and barristers. If the divorce is messy you can be looking at 25 to 45 k figure.

    The courts are a joke you could be in for a 5 minute hearing and told to come back in a month then your case might not ne heard if the courts too busy.

    If the other side doesnt turn up they are usualy given 3 tries on turning up and still a jidge doesnt like making a decision if the other side isnt there.

    It is a nightmare.

    My advice even if you hate each other try and be on talking terms for the divorce or not you both walk away with hefty bills.

    Another point don’t think you are going to out smart the courts and dont think your lies wont catch up with you. Don’t think you will get all most likely it will be 50 50.

    50
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    Mute Just4 TheJournal
    Favourite Just4 TheJournal
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    Feb 4th 2014, 8:26 AM

    In 20 years time you’ll be able to get married and divorce using only a QR code. It will eventually be so easy to get divorced there will be no point getting married except to give the hotel a year’s wages.

    22
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    Mute Doey Walsh
    Favourite Doey Walsh
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    Feb 4th 2014, 8:45 AM

    Bit sad that we look at divorce and separation so lightly nowadays IMO.

    Still, one more reason not to get married I suppose.

    19
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    Mute Declan Byrne
    Favourite Declan Byrne
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    Feb 4th 2014, 8:57 AM

    Doey divorce and sepeartion is necessary as there is nothing as bad as been in a relationship that is on the rocks. Relationships break down for many reasons and not all can be sorted .

    By no means is separation or divorce easy it is very taxing on a person both health wise and mentally plus financially. There is no such thing as an easy way out.

    44
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    Mute Doey Walsh
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    Feb 4th 2014, 9:11 AM

    I completely agree with you Dec, which is why I say it should be avoided, for me the courts treat it like a circus and its vicious for everyone involved.

    17
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    Mute Ernie Looney
    Favourite Ernie Looney
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    Feb 4th 2014, 11:36 AM

    The length of time required to wait for a divorce should be reduced to two years and a separate court to deal with it.

    16
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    Mute Paul Roche
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    Feb 4th 2014, 9:04 AM

    I’m divorced from somebody who doesn’t exist because the Registrar General did not act when informed of a fraud on a marriage certificate and judges didn’t read the paperwork.
    The system is designed so that if anyone has a real issue, they are expected to sort it out on appeal.
    After almost 15 years of divorce there are still no plans to introduce a register of divorces and more plans to make an offence for whistleblowing in childcare proceedings.

    8
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    Mute Eilish Deegan
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    Feb 4th 2014, 9:02 AM

    Or u could read The Midnight Companion ,written to help Irish people (especially) to deal with the emotional side to divorce and separation .Its brilliant.

    6
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    Mute Randy Fisher
    Favourite Randy Fisher
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    Feb 6th 2014, 5:05 PM

    Never get married. Rent it but don’t buy it.

    2
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    Mute Catherine Mill
    Favourite Catherine Mill
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    Feb 4th 2014, 6:31 PM

    The court corporation is designed to make profit with judge as banker and solicitors soliciting business, “expert” witnesses” guardians etc feeding off the misery of all involved.
    Solicitors will egg their client on to cause drama and prolong the case,set parties against each other and therein lies the profit.

    2
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    Mute Catherine Mill
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    Feb 4th 2014, 6:23 PM

    We could return to our own marriage laws and keep away from the British family law system.

    We could only marry the other being and not have the church/state in the contract.

    Then we would never have to seek permission from the 3rd party in the contract and go to court, solicitors etc

    1
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    Mute Ina Smidiríní
    Favourite Ina Smidiríní
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    Feb 5th 2014, 10:07 AM

    Only the lowest of low amongst solicitors do this work. If you meet a family law solicitor on a night out just walk the other way.

    1
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