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A BORDER POLL would “not be appropriate or right” at this time, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.
However, Varadkar has called for the tests around when Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis should call a referendum on Irish unity to be clarified.
He described the aspiration to a united Ireland as a “legitimate one”.
But he added: “I don’t think it’s appropriate or right at this time.
“Fundamentally, because I think we need to get the Assembly and Executive up and running.
“We need to resolve the issues around protocol. And I think that can be done.”
Mr Varadkar told BBC Northern Ireland’s Sunday Politics programme he did not believe the tests laid out in the Belfast Agreement had been met.
He said while Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party for the first time in the Northern Ireland Assembly, they did not gain any seats, and said the number of MLAs who want a united Ireland was lower now than in the previous mandate.
“A border poll at this stage would be both divisive and defeated, and that wouldn’t be a good outcome for anyone,” he said.
In terms of the outcome of any future border poll, he said 50% plus one was not desirable.
“You’d end up having a very large minority of people being brought into a united Ireland they didn’t want to be part of,” he said.
“What I would like to try and achieve is as big a majority as possible.
“But I do think one thing we should do is clarify the tests around when a border poll can and should happen.
“Because I doubt any Secretary of State would make that decision without consulting the Prime Minister and the Cabinet and it doesn’t really say clearly how that test is applied as, to whether there is consistent public support for it.
“Is the Secretary of State supposed to look at the Assembly election results? Is it independent polls – what is it?
“I think that’s something that really ought to be clarified and could be clarified.”
Meanwhile, Mr Varadkar spoke of his respect for DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as “open and engaging” and someone he believes he can work with.
“But that’s not in any way to be naive about it, he is someone who has very firm and very strong views, I’m not saying I am going to persuade him of my views but he’s definitely someone who I believe we can work with, someone I respect and I hope to see him as a minister in the Executive soon,” he said.
Mr Varadkar is set to become Taoiseach again later this year under the terms of the government deal agreed between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party.
He has insisted he is “not particularly worried” about opinion polls which put Sinn Féin well ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the republic, insisting they don’t predict the outcome of elections, pointing to the results of the last Irish general election.
“It doesn’t unduly bother me … I know that opinion polls don’t predict the outcome of elections but even if you do look at those polls, one thing they do show – and we’re midterm at the moment – is the combined support of the government parties is between 40 and 50%,” he said.
“That says to me that it is possible for this government to be re-elected, and obviously I would like Fine Gael to be able to be part of the next government and to be the strongest party in that government.
“But the way we achieve that is not by focusing on Sinn Féin in my view but it’s by focusing on the things that people care about the most.”
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How about an election Leo?
@Craig Clancy: February 2025, there you go.
It’ll never be the time unless the government pulls its finger out of its… And actually puts together citizens assemblies and detailed white papers to actually show people what reunification would look like for them!
@Craig Clancy: suicide rates have been falling since 2011 and last year was the lowest in the last two decades. If you’re feeling low talk to someone there is help out there but throwing suicide out there as an argument for an election helps no one
In fairness I think by the time a border poll happens, and it will happen, Leo will be well and truly finished in Irish politics as will the current Tory secretary of state, they will have no part to play in the calling of it.
@Brendan Luke Ferron: don’t know if he’ll be finished in politics but he might have moved on from being the leader of FG. I between 10 and 20 years is what we’re probably looking at.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: I think there will be a poll within 5 years but it has to be a very detailed proposition that is put that lays out how the transition will happen. I think people have looked at Brexit and said you can never again put such an important question to the public without having the detail worked out in advance, it can not be a make it up as you go along. I think a SF government would create a department dedicated to working on this detail and they will seek a mandate for that at the next General election. I am very flexible on the length of transition once it’s going to happen.
@Brendan Luke Ferron: I don’t know if 5 years is enough time. You’re right there is a lot of detail to get sorted and get over to the people, but I also agree with Leo’s point that there needs to be a clear majority rather than a slim win. I don’t think it would be far from 50/50 now and it might take more than 5 years for that to change. If Scotland get their referendum and leave next year that may be good for us.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: I think the 50% + 1 was one of the most important elements of the GFA because it said to Republicans, and I remember the debates within the organisation at the time, that there was a democratic path to achieving the goals, that principle should not be undermined as the principle of consent is the bedrock the peace was built on. Also, if 50% + 1 is enough to keep the North in the Union then it has to be enough to end it. I agree on Scottish independence, a vote in favour will start a dominoe effect.
@Brendan Luke Ferron: I agree that legally its all that is required. The point I’m making is that if it were that close it would be the beginning of a lot of trouble /violence. I’d rather wait until the outcome was a forgone conclusion. We’ve waited this long, another 10 years or so to make sure we did it right wouldn’t hurt.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: again if you start putting qualifications on the result were does it end, is it 40-60 30-70? I think the criteria set out in the GFA which SF supported was that the SOS would call a poll when it was clear that there was a demand for it, the demographics are changing so quick coupled with Brexit that I think that criteria will have been reached within 5 years and will produce a clear result. I also think political unionism will be the key driver in making all this happen. When the history of how this all happened is written it will be them that deserve the most credit.
@Brendan Luke Ferron: I agree that the referendum needs to be held based on a detailed description of institutions, structures, symbols, and so on in a united Ireland – issues such as regional or provincial parliaments, the flag, the anthem, membership of the Commonwealth.
I’m not sure how open a Sinn Féin led process will be to that sort of “creative “ thinking, and even if it were, I suspect the Unionists would be inherently unwilling to accept it
@Brendan Luke Ferron: You are seriously way off with your estimate. At least 20 years +. A lot of non-uionist would prefer statu quo. If, which l doubt it, Scotland breaks gets an indy ref 2 and votes for independence it would expedite the chances. The Scots will vote to remain.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: took him six counts to get in last time ..I wouldn think his position has improved
I agree now is not the time but i also think there would never be an appropriate time for a border poll on fine gael’s watch.
@Brian Dunne: Why? Through playing hardball with the mental Tories, only the last three Governments have created the environment for a border poll to be both possible and winnable. If you expect SF to ride in on a kidnapped white horse and both unite the Country and also overcome dire international economic circumstances, I’d suggest you have another thing coming.
@Eoin Roche: firstly i never mentioned sinn fein. And yes, leo and co did play hardball on brexit and for the most part did a decent job in fairness. Do i think a border poll on Northern Ireland was ever part of the motivation in that job? No i certainly do not.
@Eoin Roche: sf on a white horse…….give my head peace!
It has never been more appropriate.
Then again, going to festivals in England to avoid restrictions here isn’t exactly appropriate either is it?
You know what might be appropriate?
An election.
Interesting comments from Fine Gael as they don’t stand for election in the north as well as referring to the north as overseas. He really needs to get out of the Pale more often.
@Leo’s Spin Department: read the constitution and the good Friday agreement. We have no legal claim to the 6 counties of N Ireland. And I’d I remember correctly about 90% of us voted for that.
@Dave Connolly: Belfast is not “overseas”. The Germans do not refer to France as “overseas.”
@Dave Connolly: you are an ……..
No one is suggesting a legal claim. The people of the North will ultimately decide this issue, and it will be a choice not a legal claim. Back to kindergarten you dope
It is never time, another 100 years and it is not the time right now. They are afraid to let the people have there say. This is the best time and it couldn’t be any better.
50% plus 1 is democracy. The 6 counties have been gerrymandered long enough.
@M Bowe: 100%
He says he’s not fussed by polls but alludes to the fact the polls show this government fffg/gp can be voted back in again and he would gladly go into government after next election with a trio of chancers yet again collaborating to deny the majority of people’s wishes in a new government..use your vote wisely and do not vote for fffg/gp
Didn’t the leader of that renowned ‘Republican’ party Mehole Martin recently say it wasn’t even time to start the discussions around how reunification will be achieved.
No matter what they say FFG is a single partitionist party.
50% + 1 is enough. Why should a minority continue to dictate to a majority? FG and FF should be preparing for a border poll. The key event, in my opinion, is that if/when Scotland votes to leave the UK, then the English won’t want the north, and the unionists will know the jig is up. Otherwise, it will be take longer but it will still happen. A transition phase and reciprocal rights will help. A symbolic federation with Scotland may provide some ongoing connection. A shared pan-Celtic holiday would be popular with everyone.
And a citizen’s assembly? Is it not appropriate – we need to prepare and not make the mistakes of Brexit.
Guess FG just want to keep their heads stuck in the sand.
John Bruton obviously sti writing the FG policy on the occupied 6 counties… Don’t think léo will halt the rebirth of our nation the sap… Kings hospital educated etc etc
Hes 100% right.
Hold one in the near future, lose it , and the whole thing will be put to bed for a generation.
Brexit is doing more for a united Ireland, than any party or politician could dream of.
If all the Leo haters pooled their brain cells they might see that.
@Eamonn Duggan: read the GFA. It is every 7 years after first is held.
@Eamonn Duggan: look I despise the man he isnt wrong though. I want a united Ireland but for that to happen we need consent buy in and in increase in state security to handle potential issues. We can be fair to the unionists without breaking our back to appease too much. First we need to define when the NI secretary of state has to call a referendum is it after polls an assembly election what is the triggering conditions?
He be gone at next election
Why is Leo even talking about this? Does he not know that it is up to NI to call fora border poll.
@Don Hogan: It isn’t up to NI. It’s the UK government (the NI Secretary) who decides
Why is Leo even talking about this? Does he not know that it is up to NI not the ROI to call for a border poll.
Got 99 problems but the DUP ain’t one.
Lieo states “ the number of MLAs who want a united Ireland is lower than the previous mandate”. Patiently false again. Sf returned same, Unionist and SDLP dropped some. Gains made by Alliance Party, these AP MLAs are non designated, but Lieo has just designated every last one of them Unionist in his rush to make that sound bite. Can this waste of space ever speak truthfully!!!
Well reasoned input. Hard to find fault with the base assumptions. We will have a very challenging sell to persuade the majority in NI of the merits of a unitary state and if we were to be honest that south might also find it difficult to agree to the terms and costs of having a unitary state.
I would think that NI politicians on both sides of the argument need to first show that they can govern their Provence before any greater constitutional change is advanced.
have your say