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AN IMMUNOLOGY EXPERT has said that she has concerns about what a winter surge of Covid-19 might look like, and that new booster vaccines against the Omicron variant need to be timed so that they give the highest level of protection possible.
Covid-19 cases have been on the rise in recent weeks due to the spread of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of the Omicron strain, which are replacing the previously dominant BA.2 variant, which spread across Ireland in late 2021.
According to the latest Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) report, there were 12,795 cases of Covid-19 reported between 26 June and 2 July, an increase of 22.6% compared to two weeks ago, when there were 10,435 confirmed Covid-19 cases notified.
As of Friday, there were 905 people in hospital with Covid-19, an increase from 685 two weeks ago. 35 people were in intensive care with the virus.
The seven-day positivity rate – the number of people testing positive out of the overall number of official PCR tests carried out – currently stands at 38.1%, an increase from 31.7% two weeks ago.
Speaking to The Journal, Professor of Immunology at DCU Christine Loscher said that we are “maybe a week away” from this wave’s peak.
“The positivity rate is starting to plateau out a little bit now, so that’s a good indication that we’re coming to the top of the peak. If you look at the pattern that was in Portugal, they climbed for five or six weeks and then started to decline, so that would kind of match what’s happened with us over the last four or five weeks,” she said.
This sentiment was echoed by Tánaiste Leo Varadkar during the week, when he told RTÉ’s Today with Claire Byrne programme that the current wave seems to be peaking “around now”, and that he expects the number of hospitalisations to start in the next two to three weeks.
He also said that he expects there will be an “extensive” Covid-19 vaccine campaign in the autumn ahead of a winter season that could see a further surge in cases of the virus.
“I’m more concerned about the next wave which will come in the winter, because that will happen when we’re indoors more and it might come at the same time as the flu. We haven’t had a serious flu season since 2019,” he said.
Loscher said that winter surges will always be more difficult to manage as the transmission rate will be higher due to people being indoors a lot more, as well as other viruses circulating around this time, such as the flu.
Winter wave
“This might make people a bit more susceptible. They might be immunocompromised because they already have something on board already, and you can pick up Covid when you have another infection.”
She said she would have concerns about what a winter surge is going to look like, given that we are now dealing with “much more transmissible variants than we were even coming into last winter”.
“We do need to be mindful that if BA.4 and BA.5 have been so good at causing infection, and if they are very immune evasive, which means they’re very good at avoiding your previous immunity from either infection or vaccination, if you transported into the wintertime and we have a wave like this, we could see much higher case numbers, and a bigger impact on workplaces,” she said.
I think everybody just knows so many people at the moment that have Covid and a lot of workplaces are really suffering from staff shortages. We’re seeing numbers still climbing going into hospital, and so the impact of a subvariant like BA.4 and BA.5 would definitely be a bit more apparent in the wintertime than it is at the moment.
However, while the variants are more transmissible, there is no clear evidence that they are more severe than previous variants.
According to Loscher, even if someone’s immunity is waning since their last vaccine against the virus, the T-cell immunity that they have built through previous vaccination and infection will prevent them from getting severely ill if infected with the new subvariants.
“Even though BA.4 and BA.5 are circulating quite highly in the community and lots of people are getting Covid, we still have a lot of protection from the vaccines against severity,” she said.
She compared our immunity with that of Hong Kong, which recently experienced a severe surge of Omicron. Their population was poorly vaccinated – less than a quarter of people aged 80 and over in the city had been given two doses of a vaccine before the surge.
Their death rate following this surge was the highest seen for any variant at any stage of the pandemic. From January to March, 96% of deaths occurred in people aged 60 and older. Of those, 70% were unvaccinated.
“Omicron in a highly vaccinated population, like ourselves, where we have a lot of immunity built up over the last year and a half, we’re getting a lot of protection against severity. If you put Omicron into a very poorly vaccinated population, they don’t do as well,” Loscher added.
A second booster shot is currently being offered to people aged over 65 and people who are immunosuppressed, with the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (NIAC) currently considering whether people under 65 should also be invited to get a second booster shot of the Covid-19 vaccine.
Varadkar said that while the Government will await the advice from NIAC in relation to this, he believes “that’s where it’s gonna go”. He also said that there will possibly be vaccines that are adapted specifically targeted to the Omicron variant.
Omicron boosters
Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly confirmed on Wednesday that NIAC are looking at additional boosters for those aged over 65 and under 65, as well as two new vaccines “that have been augmented specifically to deal with Omicron”.
Loscher said that an Omicron vaccine will help the body create antibodies that will be more effective against the current sub-variants.
“The difference between the spike protein in Omicron and the other original strain is that there’s a lot of mutations in the spike protein. So if you’re getting vaccinated and you’re making antibodies to the original spike protein in Covid-19, your antibodies just won’t be as good as they would be if you were vaccinating somebody against the Omicron specific variants.
You’ll make better antibodies. They’ll fit better, they bind better, and they’ll prevent the virus being able to cause an infection better. So really, it’s just the difference of what’s in the vaccine. The instructions for your body to make the antibody will be that they make an antibody that’s better against Omicron than against the previous variants that we had.
However, she warned that this needs to happen at the right time in order for it to be effective against a winter surge.
“Boosting now may be just boosting too early for that winter wave because we do know that the antibodies will wane and you’ll still get protection against severity, but if you want to boost a population in preparation for a wave, you want to boost them at the right time so that their antibody level is high enough to give them protection against getting the infection in the first place.
“If we’re going to give the same vaccine or an Omicron vaccine to the general population, we should be looking at doing that towards the end of August and start of September when you can start vaccinating people over the course of September and October.”
The Tánaiste also said that a winter surge may lead to the Government asking people to wear masks again in certain settings.
Coordinated response
Loscher believes that there needs to be a system in place where when we see Covid surging, everyone knows exactly what they need to do to minimise the risk, slow down transmission and prevent putting increased pressure on our healthcare system.
“My concern is the last two surges, this one and the last one, we’re not really seeing any kind of general public health guidance that we should be responding in any way, and I think that needs to be very clear,” she said.
She said that the response should always be the same – check that whatever vaccine you should be getting is up to date, wear a mask in crowded indoor settings, such as on public transport and in retail settings, and keep testing if you have symptoms.
“I know we’re getting messages about boosters and vaccines over the age of 65, but there needs to be a very clear message that masks have a place in terms of protection at the moment, particularly well fitting, high-grade medical masks. I have noticed that there are a lot more people wearing masks now than there were even three weeks ago. Still very small numbers but definitely more, and they do have a role to play in reducing your risk.”
Going forward, Loscher said that surges every three or four months will probably continue for the time being until we learn more about the virus and have a long-term plan in place for how to deal with future waves.
The more we understand about the virus and the more we develop vaccines and antivirals, we’ll be better placed to know what the longer term strategy is. We know the vaccines are working really well against severity and deaths and hospitalisations. We know that they have a place and a use. When to use them, and predicting surges is what we will be able to do better over time.
“But I do think we’re going to be in these cycles of trying to figure out the best time to position the right vaccines, and being able to respond at the start of surges to minimise the impact.
“I think that we’ll get better at living with Covid. We’re living with it now, but I think we probably could live better with it, and I think that over time our strategy for how we deal with these surges into the future will just improve.”
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Thanks but no thanks!
@Cowboy Ted: I’m fully vaccinated so don’t bother going there!
@Colette Kearns: Sure that’s grand Colette and totally a decision you will make proper order. But if there is any chance me granny might die without a booster at the”RIGHT” time I’ll listen to to the people that know .Not powder puff Donnelly or his ilk but the the true scientists. I mean it’s living with covid isn’t it?
@Colette Kearns: you’re full of something and it ain’t a vaccine.
@Colette Kearns: Why not?
@Colette Kearns: “fully vaxd” but not obviously not fully educated on it. Which is hard to believe especially after a the information on it over the past few years. Vax wears off. I had a very bad dose of it 5 months after my booster. Wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Relative just had a sniffle and a light cough a month after their second booster……. Your choice at the end of the day. Best of luck with your “fully vaccinated” state
@Paul Hedderman: and most people don’t get anything including myself. First things first this scaremongering of hospital and ICU cases WITH covid needs to stop it is well known at this stage that most of the cases in hospital are in house transmissions or incidental transmissions and are not being treated for covid in a lot of cases so why this narrative is still being pushed I don’t know. The whole country knows this at this stage they are not even hiding that fact anymore. Secondly there has been many many experts that have said that the present vaccines are ineffective against the Omicron variant so what is the point. You cannot keep putting vaccine after vaccine into people’s bodies without damaging their immune systems permanently particularly as yet there is still no long term data out on these mrna vaccines. 5 shots in 14 to 18 months for some is absolutely crazy
@Michael McGrath: Incorrect. Half the people in hospital are not incidental. That means half as has been clearly reported in the various reports are in specifically with Covid. And the new boosters are being developed to be Omicron specific in the same way flu vaccines are changed yearly so the vaccines available from September will work on variants stemming from BA.4 and 5.
@Heather Knowles: people already in hospital don’t go down as incidental cases so that 50% is incorrect and anyway how many more vaccines are you going to have to take in a short space of time
@Michael McGrath: You’re incorrect, they say its ineffective at stopping the spread of omicron unlike previous variants. The vaccine reduce the symptoms and helps fight it. Ultimately when theres a wave when schools return in the autumn and another around christmas this will keep many out of hospital and prevent strong symptoms in others. Which is what the article is about. Winter waves. People are still dying from/with it despite it not being reported anymore…….. Ever hear of the yearly flu vaccines? Havent heard of any long term damage from them to peoples immune system. Its human nature to be wary of new medicine. What about the damage from a new virus which originated in bats/pangolins and has been passed and mutated through millions of humans. Not a concern for long term damage?
@Paul Hedderman: At this point it’s absolutely pointless trying to make people believe the scientific facts, if they still don’t get it they never will, rather believe the nonsense posted on Facebook etc. Vaccines damaging immune system, like seriously. Don’t waste your energy, they are still posting this stuff to get a reaction and no matter what you tell them they won’t believe it.
@Colette Kearns: Colette I’m not sure if your inter cert qualifications are relevant here
@Niamh Brady: True……. Its scary that Michael is trying to play down the impact of covid in hospitals during the inevitable winter waves based on whats happening in there now……. and then throw the flu into the mix as well. Its as if last winters waves never happened in some peoples minds.
@Niamh Brady:
I read this article in the pub last night. I mentioned it and person across from me said he would not be getting it.
We chatted about it and he said got it twice and it wasn’t that bad, he was in his 30s. I explained how a friend of mine was in his 30’s was in a coma. Then I asked when he got it did he give it to anyone else. I then just asked him is it about our risk or is it about the faer of giving it to others.
He said he will get it for the winter…
We can change minds with patince and empathy…
@Paul Hedderman: Flu vaccine yearly.. Covid vaccine 4 times a year.. No. Thanks
@Geoff Bateman: Each to their own I suppose. Hope you’re immune system is strong and there’s no long term effects after each time you get it.
@Paul Hedderman: * Hope your immune system……. (before the grammar police jump on it :-P)
@Michael McGrath: you absolutely can , why would it damage your immune system ?
Could also be a winter where people will freeze to death ( literally) at this rate electricity and gas have almost, not quite there yet but close to 100% .Increse & Leo said that the wealthy people are also feeling the pinch! LOL. Just goes to show how out of touch these guy are.
@Colette Kearns: no could about it collette that will be fact. But hey it only the parasites on society isn’t it the new day poor.another shower of wasters moaning about tax hikes and working unlimited hours to actually maybe someday buy a home and start a life. Sad times in Ireland. FFFG,labour and the pds hang yer head in shame. Meanwhile nothing but cycle lanes all over Dublin. Why and how are the greens getting away with this?The fact eamonn Ryan ruling the roost is absolutely embarrassing to this current government. Ye made a deal with the devil and here we are. Shocking stuff FFFG. Imho.
@Colette Kearns: I think the rural people of Ireland should just sell turf to anybody looking for it. Modern houses should revert back to stoves, great heating for the house! If electricity and gas are so expensive, then let us be self sufficient instead of relying on mainland Europe for gas! We’re an Island and should be well able to supply ourselves with renewable energy at this stage! We can sort our own problems but would rather conform to European standards. We should definitely be in the EU but as an Island nation in the EU, we should be looking for our own solutions to our own problems
@Colette Kearns: also heard something about the government taxing the energy company’s on their profits if they think its excessive, how about reducing what their charging so Joe Soap doesn’t feel the effects of it?
@Peter Beegan: The Energy companies say that they are only increasing their prices to cover the cost of oil. If this is the case then their profits should be roughly the same as last year, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that outcome.
@Paul Gorry: your opinion doesn’t count lad. When your party comes up with real alternatives amongst their scandals and hypocrisy in opposition then perhaps somebody will listen but until then worry about the housing crisis, pitiful welfare system and disastrous economic outlook in ZNI where you are in power. Shambles.
@Peter Beegan: why can we not build one Nuclear station even off shore. Yes it would cost a bit but probably enough for almost energy independence. Might take 5 to 10 years but at least it would be started. Short term continue using peat and coal as we have no choice really. Germany and China are increasing their usage.
@Paul Gorry: Jesus….what’s your problem with having cycle lanes. I think it’s a Dublin City Council decision…..perhaps you should have a look at the make up of the City Council …of the 63 seats…the 5 major parties, each have between 8-11 seats. So, it’s just not the greens. The abuse Eamonn Ryan gets from likes of yourself is quite shocking.
I see the journal warriors are back reverting to pontificating virology and immunology experise – seemingly got bored issuing military strategy advice for the war in Ukraine – dunno what we would do without then – always the very same people too – maybe have a day where we all give a round of applause or something
@Dave Hammond: We’ll said Dave, once upon a time the village 1d1ot was mocked and ignored, now sadly they have smartphones and we are forced to endure their ramblings
Ah hear …leave it out FFS..
Where would we be without all the sage advice from the medical experts here in TheJournal?
….. and still demanding people had a third dose in several other countries including our own to qualify for such perks as eating indoors so with no end in sight at the time to these mandates from governments I reluctantly went along with the charade of the third dose.
This bizarre irrational campaign regarding mandates on the third dose long after it’s communal benefits were debunked in my opinion has resulted in a justified long term loss of trust in governments strategies regarding vaccinations and will do long term damage to previous great work on actual effective vaccines.
They were overhyped and the continued blind faith in these covid vaccines is starting to look foolish and desperate.
Let’s see all the data for how well this has worked before, how many studies are these people reading?
@Josho Cautley: Certainly more than you.
@Josho Cautley: he literally just quoted a study on the effects of these strains on a largely unvaccinated population in Hong Kong. But sure you know better than the experts don’t you.
@Josho Cautley: I’ve had my 3 shots so far. And so far no covid at all. Says a lot really.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: A CDC study that affirms and justifies their pre existing policies is not surprising. It says nothing about boosters, just that an old population with low immunity had high death rate. Not surprising. What I want to know is how much a booster stops transmission for omicron (spoiler: not much), how much it elevates risk of myocarditis and other injuries (spoiler: we dont know) and whether those numbers justify giving boosters to cohorts of people at very low risk from omicron.
Off you go.
My wife and I travelled to Venice at the end of March. I was already double vaccinated and at the time it was absolutely accepted that the hopes for the vaccine had been vastly overrated and the vaccine in no way shape or form prevented you from getting or, more importantly, spreading the now much milder covid. So getting it should have been purely a personal choice as it seemed at best all it did was maybe marginally reduce your sickness when it was your turn to get covid for the first, third or tenth time.
But despite the common knowledge about the vaccines mentioned above even during March they were STILL demanding a third vaccination for entry to Italy……
It’s over
Stay home and act your age
QUOTE: “My concern is the last two surges, this one and the last one, we’re not really seeing any kind of general public health guidance that we should be responding in any way, and I think that needs to be very clear,” she said. ENDQUOTE
This is absurd. After two years of this, with heavy, repeated media coverage, anyone who doesn’t know by now how to behave is wilfully deaf. Even children understand the protocols.
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