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Tom Clonan Russia cannot ‘win’ this war on Ukraine - so what can we expect in 2023?

Escalation won’t alter the fact that a Russian victory is not possible, security analyst Tom Clonan writes.

RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE in February of this year. Putin had a wildly ambitious plan – to decapitate Zelensky’s regime in a lightning attack on Kyiv.

In an incredible intelligence failure, Putin and his generals anticipated the complete collapse of Zelensky’s government and the swift capitulation of Ukraine’s armed forces.

It was intended to be a three-day war. Ten months later, we are now at day 302 of a bitter, costly and drawn out conflict.

Over-confident from the start, Putin committed a relatively small invasion force. To defeat and occupy a country with a population of approximately 40 million citizens, the Kremlin assembled an invasion force of just 150,000 troops. Putin then promptly split these forces and launched attacks on three separate axes of advance.

His armoured advance from Russia and Belarus to Kyiv was a spectacular failure. It was intended to be a blitzkrieg manoeuvre – tanks and armoured infantry units charging south from Belarus to the exposed Ukrainian capital.

With a distance of around 150 kilometres to the target, Putin’s generals expected their cavalry and mounted infantry units to roar into downtown Kyiv within 24 hours. Russian special forces carried out a simultaneous attack on the strategic Antonov Airport at Hostomel, on the outskirts of the capital.

However, that attack failed. Local Ukrainian units repelled Putin’s special forces from the airport and the vicinity of several government buildings. It was an action that would become emblematic of Russian failures in the field.

The armoured advance also stalled, with an extended column of Russian armoured fighting vehicles and tanks, halted and strung out over 64 kilometres on the road to Kyiv.

This armoured column was repeatedly ambushed and attacked by highly mobile Ukrainian units, leading to a collapse of the invasion on that front and a hasty withdrawal.

As Putin’s defeated vanguard retreated, they left behind them evidence of the indiscriminate killing of civilians and war crimes in towns such as Bucha and Chernihiv.

As the war ground on in the southern and eastern axes of advance, Putin destroyed the city of Mariupol and secured a land corridor from the annexed Crimean Peninsula – through newly captured territory in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts – to Russia proper.

As Putin’s forces – advancing north from Crimea and west from Russia – linked up, they captured a series of strategic towns and cities. Kherson – captured in the opening days of the conflict – was the only regional capital captured by Russian troops during this opening phase of the war.

This phase of the war – from February to April – signaled to the world that Putin’s military forces had been either defeated, or contained in the field in Ukraine. Unlike Putin’s 2008 invasion of Georgia which lasted just 12 days and resulted in Russian control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the war in Ukraine would turn into a war of attrition.

Second phase 

In the second phase of the war, from April to August – Ukraine consolidated its defence and began to inflict incremental losses on Russian forces. By the beginning of September, Russian casualties, killed in action or seriously wounded are estimated to comprise approximately 50% of the original invasion force.

As I write, after 10 months of combat as many as 30,000 young Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine – with perhaps twice that number seriously injured with life altering and life limiting injuries. This compares with just 15,000 Soviet troops killed in combat in Afghanistan in the 10 year period from 1979-1989. In other words, in just 10 months in Ukraine – Russia has lost more than twice the number of troops it lost during its 10 year invasion of Afghanistan. These losses are unsustainable and offer a hint as to what may happen next during Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

The third phase of the war in Ukraine began in September with Ukraine taking the initiative in the Kharkiv region. In a surprise assault across the Siversky Donets River, Ukrainian units surged south and east in the Kharkiv oblast, taking the strategic town of Izyum and driving Putin’s forces east of the Oskil River towards the Russian border.

In this lightning advance, Ukraine managed to manoeuvre three brigades – 6000 combat troops – deep into Russian held territory. It was a rout with no fighting withdrawal. Putin’s troops literally fled from their defensive positions.

Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Kherson Oblast in the south was a very different strategic operation. It was a slow, attritional full frontal assault on Kherson carried out in full view of Putin’s generals. Kherson was a well defended Russian position – with defence in considerable strength and depth. However, Ukraine used superior battlefield technologies – drone and missile systems supplied by the west – along with superior tactical strategies to cut Russian supply lines and to comprehensively defeat them in the field.

There was no surprise element in Kherson – and it proved that Ukraine is capable of defeating Putin’s forces in every aspect of the field army in the artillery, armoured and infantry domains.

russia-ukraine-war Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko poses for photos with supporters during the inauguration of a Christmas tree decorated with the colours of the Ukrainian national flag in Kyiv on Monday. Vasilisa Stepanenko Vasilisa Stepanenko

What next? 

This all begs the question – what will happen next in Ukraine?

As winter sets in, Russia faces two major Ukrainian threats. From the Kharkiv region to the north, Ukrainian forces are seeking to probe and exploit weaknesses along the Luhansk and Donetsk fronts – in a line from Svatove and Kremina to Bakhmut.

Russia is attempting to hold the line here with constant shelling along the entire front to shore up defences manned by recently mobilised reservists. Russia’s relentless assault on Bakhmut is designed to prevent a Ukrainian break-through in this area of the front.

In the south, Ukrainian forces may seek to advance further east from Kherson towards Melitipol and Berdyansk in order to sever Putin’s land corridor from Crimea to Russian territory.

Putin and what remains of his general staff will be mindful of this risk with Russia’s Defence Minister suggesting that he will widen the mobilisation and increase the draft age for conscription from 27 to 30.

However, given their losses and given their performance to date, it is unlikely that Putin’s forces can change the facts on the ground in Ukraine this winter – using conventional military means. Hence Putin’s recent reliance on massed cruise missile and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in major civilian centres throughout Ukraine.

The mobilisation of 300,000 reservists has assisted Putin with reinforcement in parts of his defensive line. However it has not resulted in the materialisation of a renewed, competent and capable offensive force.

In the absence of a coherent, well equipped and re-organised order of battle – it is unlikely that Putin can launch a meaningful Winter ground offensive in Ukraine in the coming months.

Ukraine has enjoyed a number of key advantages in this conflict. This has included a military that is well led – along NATO lines – and highly motivated to fight in defence of their homeland and in order to protect their people from war crimes perpetrated from the very outset of this conflict.

Principal among its advantages however has been the extensive support it has enjoyed from the US, EU and NATO member states. This support in the form of missile, drone and armoured fighting vehicle and weapons technology has enabled the Ukrainians to regain territory.

It also suggests that Ukraine – unlike Russia – could mount a Winter Offensive, seizing the initiative before Putin has the chance to re-group and re-organise for a renewed Spring campaign.

For this reason, it is no coincidence that Zelensky visited the US during Christmas week – calling for renewed support from his principal western ally. During that trip to Washington President Joe Biden committed nearly $1.8 billion in military supplies to Ukraine including, for the first time, the Patriot missile defence system.

Putin has warned that this would represent a potential ‘escalation’ and widening of the war.

The US and NATO appear steadfast in their support for Ukraine and may call Putin’s bluff. Thus far, Putin has played a losing hand in every aspect of this conflict. In the meantime, NATO has expanded its operational presence in the region.

As of December 2022, NATO has deployed Multinational Battle Groups and NATO Force Integration Units to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria.

Whilst it is difficult to anticipate with any certainty what will happen next in Ukraine – the evidence thus far suggests that this conflict will continue well into 2023. The evidence also suggests that Ukraine will continue to gain ground and will continue to inflict ever more casualties on Putin’s hastily assembled reinforcements.

Putin’s intelligence blunders include his failure to correctly anticipate the willingness of Ukraine to fight – along with his serious under-estimate of the coherence and unity of the US, NATO and the EU.

This war was unnecessary and in my view was based on the fragile ego and brittle ambitions of Vladimir Putin and those who empower him in the Kremlin. The principal victims of this war are the people of Ukraine and all those who have suffered its wider consequences. Tens of thousands of Russia’s most disadvantaged citizens have also needlessly lost their lives in Ukraine – at the behest of the world’s wealthiest oligarchs.

Based on the evidence, Russia cannot ‘win’ this war. Escalation will not alter this fact and will not benefit Russia or Putin’s cronies.

My hope for 2023 is that common sense and humanity will assert itself – somehow – and that this war will be brought to an end.

A great deal of energy and wealth is being invested in waging this futile war. A similar – greater – effort, needs to be invested in ending it.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer in TU Dublin. He is currently an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Eireann. 

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    Mute Paul Jude Redmond
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 1:52 PM

    Fine analysis. Putin is already beaten but because he’s staked everything on winning, he has no way out. Not just his political future but his life is on the line if he capitulates…

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    Mute Rob Dowling
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 3:58 PM

    This article by Tom Clonan is a classic example of Western media propaganda. Tom lays put exactly why he thinks Russia can’t win, where “winning” means making the entire territory of Ukraine a vassal of the Kremlin, as it was during the USSR period. But the propaganda is in what Tom *doesnt* say, which is that it is now clear that Western sanctions will not topple the Putin regime, the West will not make Russia a vassal in the unipolar US-led world order and even the lesser goal of Ukraine recovering all five annexed Oblasts seems almost impossible to achieve at this point, with 300,000 Russian reservists entering the war in the coming weeks. Tom is correct, Russia can’t win this war completely. Tom won’t say that the West cannot win either.

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    Mute Declan McKenna
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 4:41 PM

    @Rob Dowling:

    Of all the comments and considering the blatant bias continuously spewed out by the ‘expert’ Tom Clonan, your comment is the nearest to a rational, objective analysis of all the comments so far. And, before you all start, stating a rational, objective position is the exact opposite of taking sides.

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    Mute Rian Lynch
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 6:04 PM

    @Rob Dowling: the collective West could beat the russians in a week. the Ukranian army can expel the russians if given the proper heavy weaponry to hit targets in russia

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    Mute Rob Dowling
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 6:12 PM

    @Rian Lynch: “Could” is just chit chat talk in the comments section of the Journal. I could say the Russians “could” turn every major city in Europe into a red hot molten lake of radioactive sludge using nuclear-tippes hypersonic missiles but of course I don’t, because it’d be auld talk based on “could” hypothetical this and that. The actual *fact* is Putin wont be toppled at this stage. So the West can’t *win* and many people remain in denial about that fact, clearly.

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    Mute Rian Lynch
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 6:19 PM

    @Rob Dowling: the West isnt fighting thats a fact for you. Putin is grinding Russia into oblivion and is reigniting the cold war.

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    Mute Paul Dowling
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 7:26 PM

    @Rob Dowling: a win for Ukraine just requires them to push the Russians back to the border, and whether they are able to do that depends on who runs out of munitions first. Also, those 300K Russian reservists are likely to be low quality trops with little training or combat experience and most of them support staff rather than front line soldiers. Many of them will have been pulled from other parts of the border, leaving the motherland dangerously exposed.

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    Mute Dave Harris
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 7:28 PM

    @Rob Dowling: All you can know is that Western sanctions have not toppled Putin’s regime YET. Any number of factors could bring about regime change in Russia.

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    Mute Gary Kearney
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 8:37 PM

    @Rob Dowling: 300,000 untrained and underequipped people fighting against an army with better weapons, better training, more experienced and more motivation to fight.
    Soes not sound like a fair fight to me.

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    Mute Gary Kearney
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 8:39 PM

    @Declan McKenna: Tom Clonan is an expert a well known and respected one.

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    Mute Declan McKenna
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 11:20 PM

    @Gary Kearney:
    Time will reveal the accuracy of your statement and of his ‘expert’ opinions.

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    Mute Paddy Ryan
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 2:02 PM

    Excellent article. Unfortunately the only way this war will end is when putin no longer exists. Putin will eventually end up hiding out in a bunker waiting for the end.victory to the Ukraine and its warrior people.

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    Mute Paul Dowling
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 3:00 PM

    @Paddy Ryan: depends on who replaces him.

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    Mute Mike Dunne
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    Dec 23rd 2022, 11:42 AM

    @Paddy Ryan: Unfortunately they are hawks in the Kremlin that are far more extreme than Putin. I don’t see a happy ending for the Ukraine or the world to this conflict.

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    Mute Paul Dowling
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 3:14 PM

    Three things have been truly astounding to me: 1) the obscene level of corruption in Russia from the top all the way to the bottom: materiel not being fit for purpose because maintenance funds were being funnelled into various pockets along the way; recruits sent into the meat grinder with barely any training and having to kit themselves out because their officers stole their original kit. 2) the sheer bloodthirstiness of the mainstream Russian media, calling on the army to hit Ukraine even harder, kill any Ukrainian who isn’t pro-Russian, level more of their their cities, up to and including nuclear strikes on Ukraine – and even the UK. 3) A sizeable chunk of the Russian population is ok with this ‘SMO’ against their so-called brothers.

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    Mute Red Line
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 1:53 PM

    Russia couldn’t beat Ireland if all males were called up and armed with billions worth of weapons from NATO. It’s interesting that Russia have said they are increasing their army by 40%, to 1.5 million. No side will be ‘winning’ anytime soon.

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    Mute Mick Tobin
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 3:02 PM

    I read a Guardian analyst claim that Crimea is Zelensky’s greatest bargaining chip, the implication being that in the end it would be ceded to Russia as part of a peace deal, and that Zelensky knows this but cannot say anything other than that there will be no compromise.

    I wonder like everyone else how and when this will end. I’ve noticed that even the suggestion of compromise is highly controversial. I’ve also noticed how the Kremlin has changed the narrative from fighting Ukrainian nazis to satanists and finally to NATO, with the latter enemy apparently quite succesful in garnering national support for the war. The idea is that Ukraine is forced to fight on behalf of NATO and US world domination, and seemingly this idea is popular among Russians who feel the collapse of the USSR was a humiliation that is worth resisting against.

    Given all that, I wonder what the real options are. In the face of continuing Russian defeats popular support may actually increase, enticing Putin to keep escalating, by drafting more and more people into the army and eventually using nuclear weapons (the ultimate scorched earth).

    There seems to be a reliance in the west that the Kremlin regime may fall, but whether that solves anything depends on what replaces it. So without compromise (the Crimea theory) there is either continuing escalation (with this or a similar/worse new Kremlin regime), or the war ends (under a new pragmatic Kremlin regime). That means two out of three options imply a length and bad, and possibly very bad war.

    I hope as Tom says next year will bring common sense and humanity, but realistically I think we’re in this for the long haul. Very long.

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    Mute Paul Jude Redmond
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 9:38 PM

    @Mick Tobin: sorry mick but your analysis is flawed because Russia simply doesn’t have the economic strength for a long war plus the hardcore western sanctions are destroying its economy as well

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    Mute Joeohah
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    Dec 23rd 2022, 8:08 AM

    Ukraine has already lost. for Russia winning is preventing Russian in Donbas from being attacked and preventing Ukraine from becoming a NATO member and EU state have proven they are not sovereign.
    Germany industry is in melt down the US blew up Germany pipeline and Germans said nothing while it gas dependent industries close.
    Russia used a tiny army in Ukraine that is about to change

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    Mute Mustafa Leek
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    Dec 29th 2022, 12:40 AM

    @Joeohah: utter claptrap ,Russian bot

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    Mute Mike Dunne
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    Dec 23rd 2022, 11:40 AM

    Unfortunately Ukraine cannot win this war either. What exactly is NATO’s end game? The longer this war goes on, the greater the risk of a full scale nuclear conflict.

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    Mute Joeohah
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    Dec 23rd 2022, 8:19 AM

    Only the naive believe that the US narrative that this war is Putin war this war was 30 years in the making no matter the leadership in Russia this war was provoked that is evident from the US matra Putin’s unprovoked war.
    Russian in Ukraine were left stateless by the West hero the naive Gorbachev and Reagan.

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    Mute Caoimhghin Whyte
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    Dec 22nd 2022, 8:27 PM

    Think Putin will be toppled from within, soon enough too, t.g.

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    Mute Mike Dunne
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    Dec 23rd 2022, 11:47 AM

    @Caoimhghin Whyte: Be careful what you wish for. There are hawks in the Kremlin far more extreme than Putin that will more than likely resort to even more extreme measures.

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    Mute Nicholas Byrne
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    Dec 27th 2022, 9:51 PM

    RETIRED COLONEL DOUGLAS MACGREGOR AS A DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEWhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NohouAK1deg

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    Mute Richard Barrett
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    Dec 30th 2022, 2:43 PM

    If I had been Putin, I would have mounted an attack solely on the Donetsk front. It would have been much easier to justify in terms of aiding the Russian-speaking minority in the area, and Western opinion would have been more divided. As it is, Putin has done incalculable damage to Russia’s own interests and, most worryingly, to the movement for peace and neutrality in Europe.

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