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GERMANY’S DECISION TO send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is another political and strategic turning point in the conflict. The decision coincides with 11 months of combat in Ukraine – in what Putin had vainly hoped would be a ‘three-day war’. Germany has also given the necessary export licence clearance to permit other countries to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
This development gives the green light for neighbouring EU and NATO member states to send large numbers of their stocks of state of the art Leopard tanks to Kyiv within weeks. In theory, Ukraine could receive as many as 150 of these tanks before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24th.
In political terms, the Kremlin has responded swiftly. It has threatened an ‘unambiguously negative’ response to this support. They have also stated that the development will permanently ‘mark’ relations between Berlin and Moscow. There is a clear threat of escalation on the part of Putin and his generals.
In the absence of a credible ground force capable of a winter/spring offensive – it is unclear what Russia’s response might consist of. In the absence of a viable conventional response, there is a risk of the renewed threat by Putin of the use of a non-conventional ‘tactical’ nuclear strike on Zelensky’s forces in any major Ukrainian offensive.
In strategic terms, the deployment of the Leopard 2 tank will afford Ukrainian forces a dramatic advantage in ground operations in eastern Ukraine. The Leopard 2 tank is in common use throughout Europe with an ample supply of ammunition, spare parts and the electronic systems that guide its weapon systems. The tank is extremely well armed with a 120mm Rheinmetall cannon – capable of firing many ammunition types including High Explosive Anti Tank (HEAT) projectiles along with High Explosive Anti Personnel (HEAP) munitions. The Leopard main battle tank is better armed – and better armoured – than any of its Russian counterparts.
One of the greatest strengths of the Leopard is its speed and endurance. Fully armed and supported by infantry mounted in armoured fighting vehicles, the Leopard can travel at a speed of up to 70 KPH and has a combat range of approximately 200 kilometres. If sufficient numbers arrive in Ukraine, Putin’s depleted armoured units would find themselves completely outmaneuvered and out-gunned by Ukrainian forces.
The numbers of Leopard tanks – and the speed of their deployment to Ukraine – will be critical. The 14 German tanks would be sufficient to equip an armoured squadron, which in turn would provide support for a mechanised battalion – a force of approximately 600 infantry troops with artillery support. Larger numbers, with up to 150 Leopard tanks deployed to the field would provide enough firepower for a full armoured division. That would be enough to achieve a breakthrough for Ukraine in any spring offensive envisaged by Kyiv.
Ukrainian forces continue to probe Putin’s defences in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This week there has been intense Russian counteroffensives in the areas of Orikhiv and Huliaipole – south of the regional capital of Zaporizhzhia. The Russian actions in these areas has been confined to artillery barrages designed to harass Ukrainian forward units and an attempt to deny them ground. This is significant as it hints at a possible axis of advance on the part of Ukrainian forces via Melitipol toward the port city of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. If Ukraine – with the assistance of a fully armoured division of western tanks – were to succeed in such an offensive, they would sever Putin’s land corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula.
After the recent liberation of Kherson by Zelensky’s forces, Putin’s generals will be monitoring these developments with grave concern. The United States has escalated this challenge to Putin with President Biden’s decision to send US M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine. The US has forward deployed Abrams tanks in Europe and elsewhere in the region.
This is another decisive moment in the war in Ukraine. Since September’s lightning advances east and south of Kharkiv – along with the liberation of Kherson in the south in November – Ukraine has gained the initiative in the conflict. Currently, there is bitter fighting in and around Bakhmut with the reported loss of Soledar to Putin’s Wagner mercenaries – supported by recently mobilised and poorly equipped reserve troops. On this front, Ukrainian forces are reported to be concentrating in Paraskovivka to prevent any futher Russian gains.
This is heavy attritional combat. It is believed that both sides are enduring daily losses of between 50 and 100 troops killed and seriously injured in combat. In the long term, such losses are unsustainable and both sides will be desperately seeking to achieve some sort of tactical breakthrough to effect a battlefield reversal. Russia – in the absence of effective ground fighting units – has concentrated on massed missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in order to erode their willingness and capacity to fight. This campaign has largely failed and Putin has sidelined his much-vaunted military commander, Sergei Surovikin ‘General Armageddon’ and handed direct control of his ‘Special Military Operation’ in UKraine to the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov.
This is a significant development and signals Putin’s exasperation at the lack of a decisive victory in Ukraine. It also signals his possible intentions as we approach the one-year anniversary of his ill-judged and disastrous invasion. As author and architect of the ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’, Putin’s highest ranking general appears to represent a last roll of the strategic dice in Ukraine. In short, the Kremlin have effectively failed in almost all of their strategic objectives in Ukraine. Gerasimov, as newly appointed commander of the Special Military Operation is a well-known proponent of hybrid and non-conventional forms of warfare – including the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
If Zelensky can mount a successful winter/spring offensive on or around the anniversary of Putin’s invasion – he will have achieved an unambiguous victory in the war in Ukraine. The supply of Leopard 2 tanks – along with US M1 Abrams tanks – may well prove crucial to this victory. Time will be of the essence for Ukraine with significant training, deployment and logistics challenges in the field. Ukraine has the troops – almost 1 million men of military service age with military experience since Russia’s hybrid intervention in Donbas in 2014. Ukraine also has the motivation to fight, as they are fighting for their collective survival as an independent sovereign state.
At this point, Putin is also fighting for his political and personal survival. It is not clear if there is sufficient motivation among young Russians to fight and die for Putin’s survival. There is little evidence of the Russian military’s ability to meaningfully change the facts on the ground in Ukraine. All things considered, current developments represent a window of opportunity for Zelensky to inflict a humiliating defeat on Putin. It also represents a window of risk in which Putin – desperate to save face – takes the decision to escalate the conflict by use of a non-conventional weapon or by some other drastic means.
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Time to protest like the Irish Water scandal. We have to let our voices be heard.
@Seeking Truth: totally agree…
He’s worried about our third world health care system, would be more accurate.
@Darren Lambe: its only 3rd world because of the vested interests, as we are paying over and above what 1st world countries are putting into it..
Why are they so afraid to go against NPHET advice to implement widespread antigen testing, along with vaccines and PCR? It’s not understandable, Is Holohan more educated than other countries CMOs?
@David Lee: No.
@Franny Ando: correct, however he is more educated than our government
@Kim Steen Hansen: Well I wouldn’t go that far. Neither realised AZ & Janssen vaccinez were included in the equations!!
@Franny Ando: vaccines
@Kim Steen Hansen: Well I wouldn’t go that far. Neither realised AZ and Janssen vaccines weren’t included in the modelling.
@David Lee: no. They went against at Christmas and it was catastrophic with numbers and admissions rates to hospitals and ICUs being full.
@Brendan Harlowe: Incorrect.
@Brendan Harlowe: I will go to my grave believing that NPHET throwing us into level 5 for October & November caused the December increase.
Did you know that December’s wave started while we were still in level 5 in November?
@Brendan Harlowe: That’s because of the unnecessary lockdown in October and November. People just went bananas at Christmas.
@David Lee: 100%
I’m surprised it took this long for someone to say they have “no confidence” in Martin and Donnelly add Tony to the mix and you have the magic number. They all need to be put out to pasture.
Anyone ask him why he said that new the advice on vaccinations from NIAC was included in NPHET modelling on the Delta variant, when Tony revealed under opposition questioning today that it was not.
Serious questions need to be asked as to how the Gov was supposedly ‘blindsided’ by NPHET, coupled with the fact that Donnelly works in same building and on the same floor.
Is there actually any real-time communications between NPHET, Tony & the Gov, or is is all through official letters ?
A major contradiction has emerged between the Government and its public health officials over the basis upon which the delayed indoor dining was introduced.
The Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan told opposition TDs this afternoon that the new advice on vaccinations, from the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) was not included in the National Public Health Emergency Team’s (Nphet) modelling on the Delta variant.
However, at Cabinet on Tuesday, ministers were clearly told that the modelling did take account of the new vaccine schedule as outlined by Niac.
@Da Dell: The utter incompetence of Martin, Donnely and NPHET is mindblowing. Serious questions need to be asked immediately about this modelling. There needs to be a second independent opinion preferably from a group that actually understands the science.
@Franny Ando: also, I think what is the loudest, is the complete lack of the NPHET, Tony/government fanclub on here trying to defend the utter shambles this has been.
@Alan Wright: Seriously how could anyone with a modicum of intelligence try to defend it. As you say an utter shambles.
@Franny Ando: I know, but I’m sure we’ll hear from: Ally, Munster, Grumpy etc. at some stage.
@Alan Wright: seem to be a Mary and an Elaine now too …
They went quite earlier when the bombshell was dropped that Tony did not include the new NIAC advice in the modeling ..
Every time Fianna Fail are in power. Someone else ends up calling the shots. Plastic party
It’s like the scene in Titanic where the Captain has just ordered full power when his crew are not so sure. There will be an iceberg moment very soon. #disbandNphet
Well he might be on the defensive. His utter incompetence is embarrassing. He has to be the most ineffectual leader this country and F.F have ever had. Time for the party to make some serious decisions before the party is completely decimated as well as the country.
@Franny Ando: This is a fact. The FF party need to make a decision quickly and deal with the leadership question or they will be decimated at the next election. Jim O Callaghan or Michael McGrath need to step up to the mark to save this party.
@Curragh Critic: They will be decimated at the next election anyway. Sure there only in government by the skin of their teeth anyway. And that was before this covid scenario.
@Curragh Critic: 100% agree.
@Franny Ando: And why would it be a problem if the disastrous Fianna Fáil party were decimated and hopefully consigned to history ?
@Curragh Critic: this party are not worthy of saving.
@Eddie Feeney: I didn’t say it was a problem. I just stated what, in my opinion, will happen if Micheal Martin is allowed to continue. Feel free to give me your opinion on the matter.
@Franny Ando: Give him as much rope as possible, he’ll bring the house of cards down with him, which would be nice.
But they’ll all toddle back into the Dáil and pass a bill that makes these measures the law..
@Daryl Walsh: they won’t have the support to get it through, that much is clear
@Daryl Walsh: Not to sure about that now. The backlash against this decision is growing. Not only among the general public but within F.F, F.G .
@Daryl Walsh: That would be political suicide.
As the photo above suggests I’ll be glad to see the back of him again very soon.
The thing is that FF TD’s know that their seats are in big trouble if they head down this path…… MM is in big trouble. If he doesn’t listen to them their will be a shove to get rid of him as leader…. FF are gonna get hammered in the next election
Tony Holohan needs to be fired immediately.
He has massively overstepped his boundaries and is no longer fit for purpose as CMO.
How can he claim no incompetence when it’s 17 months into the pandemic and they are just starting to plan a vaccine cert now. There are going to be many more variants like with any virus so kicking the inevitable down the line isn’t helping. We have to open up and live with the virus and it’s many inevitable mutations unfortunately.
@David Kelly: Plus Delta has been around for quite a while and they have no plans at all to deal with it for various scenarios, there was no plans for reopening really either, just kite-flying and grand announcements. Over a year as you say and not a proper track & trace system in place either. I’m sure the systems required for certs of whatever kind will be implemented post haste, once the meeting to plan the meeting for the meetings to plan how to do it are all over.
It has always been their aspiration to have a National ID card. This is their ticket to realise that dream.
Open the pubs and restaurants etc for every body.
Just ban over 65s for a few weeks until we reach the tipping point of vaccinations + herd immunity decreasing trend.
Most vulnerable >65 protected – no serious illness, no deaths, everybody happy.
People can live again and get back to work .
Virtually all over 65′s would accept this. Do it.
@Neuville-Kepler62F: Feck off I’m fully vaccinated:)
@Neuville-Kepler62F: since when did you speak for virtually all over 65’s?
@Neuville-Kepler62F: All they have to do is to advise people not fully vaccinated to drink or dine outside. Most people will comply.
@Tony Curtin: 70 FOR to your 29 AGAINST !
@Franny Ando: Me Feiner. Always one.
@Neuville-Kepler62F: Oh for crying out loud ever hear of humour!!!!
@Neuville-Kepler62F: Virtually all over 65′s would accept this?. That assumption is just what Martin and Varadkar would come up with. That’s why they are inept.
@Franny Ando: Apollo …!
Next up we follow uk again and drop requisite to have covid vaccine proof.wait for next kite flying with nphet warning that irish people should not be allowed go on sun holidays this summer yet visitors from Eu are welcomed with open arms.
@Martin Smith: Its an E.U directive thats why they announced yesterday travel would commence July 19th.
Usual dropped from the team unhappy gringes, both sides, cowan “novice” driver, o dea master of “gun picture that went wrong for him” & ring ( god help us in the west) all ex cabinet members..when thrown off the gravy train..tune has changed..knives are out..greater good my a ..e
@Matdrum Murdtam: Ah now say what you like about Willie but the man is a legend
In 2020, we had indoor dining and drinking when no vaccination process existed.
In 2021, with 4 million vaccine doses delivered, we cannot open pubs and restaurants and Nphet saying they are opposed to it in any form until end of Sept unless people can say they are vaccinated with an experimental jab?
This Delta variant is so deadly, Delhi virtually wiped it out with Ivermectin with cases falling by 95% in a matter of weeks but its an unsafe drug despite been around for decades? It all makes perfect sense.
Your time is up Holohan. End this nonsense!
So based on NPHET’s worst case scenario, we will have 682,000 cases and 2,170 deaths over the next 3 months if we open up hospitality. That 2.5 times more cases and roughly 40% of the total numbers of deaths we have had in the previous 16 months (including last winter where no one was vaccinated and which, according to the way people describe it, almost wiped us all out ).
Evidence seems to indicate that the Delta is more transmissable but does not increase hospitalisation.
We have administered over 4 million vaccines.
Surely we are entering Walter Mitty country now?
@Verners Tess: I think they should be sending a major warning to the uk and the rest of the EU about this modelling and warning them about reopening hospitality………….oh wait
McSherry’s rant as usual. He loves listening to himself as usual. What does he not understand about straight facts of reality. He should cop on and get a grip of himself about the real dangers of Covid and it’s danger to our society.
@Irish big fellow: Yes Tony
@Irish big fellow: Hi boss seemed to have the same lack of facts, when he said that new the advice on vaccinations from NIAC was included in NPHET modelling on the Delta variant, when Tony revealed under opposition questioning today that it was not.
@Irish big fellow: the only danger is FF/FG
@Irish big fellow: And maybe NPHET should actually do the same. Get an expert who knows what they are doing. Who actually knows how to input all the information into their modelling.
A backlash probably followed by them all going back on the lash afterwards…
So much incompetence – the Taoiseach the CMO and the health minister couldn’t seemingly bring themselves to meet a week ago and trash out how and what was going to be communicated about reopening indoor dining – WHY ? – why can they not do their job ? How come we had indoor dining last summer ? How come the NPHETS of every other EU country and governments are able to reopen local hospitality economy but Ireland is not ? How on earth are we suppose to believe the clearly exaggerated death figures when there isn’t a country in the world that is seeing death rates creep back up after vaccinations – the anger from the people needs to stay directed with you local representatives to start insisting that we stop managing the country like it is Craggy Island in the 1970s and start behaving like we are a modern progressive society in the EU – the omnishambles of yesterday is just not good enough and shouldn’t be acceptable to the people – we pay for these people to manage our country
@Verners Tess: The writing was on the wall for pubs when he took 1000 delegates into this country at the end of March last year. All from countries who were already impacted by covid for a similar conference on alcohol. While we were told we couldn’t travel more than 2 km. Its time Government realise his anti alcohol bias is seriously impinging his decisions. Its time for him to be removed and someone more experienced to replace him. It’s the only way NPHET’S decisions can be taken seriously.
Pure spineless these professional politicians who would discriminate against the youth of this country.
We live in a Republic allegedly!
What a cluster f
So, that’s another multi million pound court case they’ll be losing then
60% vaccinated once; 40% fully… get it open – number even proven wrong (or out of date already if ur being kind) tonight… incompetency all over
By the next election FG will hold the top seat. FF will appear the junior partner. Who would ever have thought the gentlemen farmers of FG would outwit and outplay what was once THE party of government.
@John Kelly: F.G are not exactly covering themselves in glory. They are no better supporting this debacle. It will be interesting to see if they have the gumption over the next few days to change their stance especially in light of the modelling errors. If they don’t the writing will be on the wall for them as well. Then the proverbial will hit the fan!!
Keep the restaurants closed or thousands will die! Or not. Anyway, what day is it today?
Martin should resign, his communication skills are deplorable, he is not a leader
Tell you this much if they put up donkeys as candidates they will get elected before the FF candidates. Martin is driving his party into the ground.
Could everyone in the media especially those paid to unite and guide us in times of trouble eg government ministers please stop lashing out at Nphet and the Taoiseach and in giving so many different opinions on basically how to stop a pandemic with no qualification to do so . Just opinions or populism . Let Nphet do the job they are doing well and controlling a virus is bread and butter to them but a pandemic is as much about controlling people’s behaviour which is the reason it is proving so difficult . So please just stop, listen open windows snd door , sit out in the sun and play ball . I’m so tired of this stream of self proposed experts on infection transmission . Awful fir hospitality but this decision is to save countless lives but so many don’t get altruistic behaviour .
have your say