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Workers handle swab samples for COVID-19 test at a hospital lab in Yantai in eastern China's Shandong province on Aug. 7, 2021. Alamy Stock Photo

Opinion If global leaders can't agree on the origin of Covid then what hope for future crises?

As global superpowers continue their war of words over the origin of Covid, Seána Glennon says the lack of cooperation doesn’t bode well for the future.

AS WE APPROACH the third anniversary of Leo Varadkar’s unexpected address to the nation from Washington, announcing an unprecedented and full-scale societal lockdown in response to the global outbreak of Covid-19, the US Department of Energy has concluded – albeit with “low confidence” – that the virus originated from an accidental laboratory leak in Wuhan, China.

The Director of the FBI has also recently announced that the Bureau has assessed the origin of the virus as due to a “potential lab incident”. There remains no consensus on how the outbreak began, with several other US agencies rejecting the lab-leak theory and positing a natural origin – the virus made the jump from animals to humans, possibly at a Wuhan “wet market” – and Beijing dismissing the lab-accident claim as having “no credibility whatsoever”.

An open debate over how the spread of Covid-19 began – obviously of great importance in planning to prevent or respond to a future outbreak – has been hampered by bitter pandemic politics. Donald Trump’s stoking of the US culture wars – referring to Covid as the “Chinese virus” and “kung flu” – has been linked to a surge in anti-Asian racism and hate crime.

In addition, the arguably premature dismissal of the possibility of a lab-leak origin as a conspiracy theory by more left-leaning news outlets and even the respected scientific journal The Lancet, helped stoke division and stymie useful discussion around the crucial question of how a virus emerged that caused the deaths of an estimated seven million people (and by some estimates, up to 20 million).

Taking drastic action

The suppression of open discussion around matters that concern all of us has highlighted the contemporary state of global politics as less “the art of the possible”, and more the art of making the possible impossible.

Look at the unfolding climate disaster. We know that the planet is becoming increasingly uninhabitable and we know that humankind has the ability to take drastic action to respond to such a global emergency.

The international response to the outbreak of Covid-19 – in which Ireland and many other countries changed overnight the way people lived their lives – was evidence, if evidence were needed, that societies are capable of reacting quickly and effectively to major disasters. Yet somehow, the climate crisis continues to be politically intractable.

Even relatively modest climate targets appear to be beyond reach, the government last week dropping its commitment, contained in the programme for government, to pass legislation banning the sale of fossil fuel cars by 2030. In the meantime, we are already seeing the consequences of our inaction: rising temperatures, extreme weather events, mass migration and food insecurity to name a few.

Global virus research

Returning to the politically toxic subject of the origin of Covid; in the midst of the rancour, a crucial and under-scrutinised problem has come to light: there are a large number of laboratories around the world undertaking so-called “gain of function” research – experimenting with adapting existing viruses to make them potentially more transmissible and deadly, in an effort to better understand how to respond to such strains should they emerge among the public – with little to no global regulation and oversight.

There is no global database of laboratories pinpointing what kind of research is being done under what level of security. The biosecurity experts Gregory Koblentz and Rocco Casagrande note that the US is home to more labs conducting high-risk research than anywhere else in the world, and have warned about the “patchwork” of regulations and policies applicable to pathogen research and the gaps that exist – all in a context of research done with good intentions, but which could result in the emergence of a highly dangerous strain of virus.

An overhaul of the system of oversight for this kind of research has recently been recommended by the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity in the US. The partisan nature of the discourse around the origin of Covid has, however, more stoked division than shed light on how to best support important research while maintaining safety and promoting cooperation and oversight on a global scale. The recent proposals for increased oversight have already received a mixed response.

On a global scale, given the current state of relations between the US and China, it is difficult to imagine the two countries facilitating a mutually transparent process of oversight and cooperating in working to prevent any future accidental outbreak.

We may never achieve an overall consensus on how the pandemic began. To a certain extent, it doesn’t actually matter if the virus originated by way of natural transmission or by way of lab accident; what matters is that we take seriously that a lab leak with devastating consequences is, in theory, possible, and that we work together on a global basis to agree a set of standards and a policy of transparency to best avoid this risk.

The fact that this has not been achieved, three years after the beginning of Covid’s trail of death and disruption, does not paint a positive picture for global cooperation on the future crises – most urgently the climate crisis – that await.

Seána Glennon is a lawyer and Chief Outreach Officer at UCD’s Centre for Constitutional Studies, currently a visiting scholar at Osgoode Hall Law School, Toronto.

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    Mute Con Cussed
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    Apr 13th 2022, 11:00 AM

    “Russia’s defence ministry has claimed that more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered in Mariupol. ” Well what were they supposed to do without ammunition, throw stones? I just hope Russia respects them and doesn’t put them in concentration camps, like other dissidents who disagree with him.

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    Mute Aidocasey
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    Apr 13th 2022, 10:07 PM

    @Con Cussed: are you serious ? Of course they will….

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    Mute alan scott
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    Apr 13th 2022, 12:18 PM

    If chemical weapons were used, NATO will have to intervene this time unlike last time.

    Russia is a weak country militarily

    Counties only take them seriously because they have WMDS.

    Poland on their own would overrun Russian forces at this rate easily.

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    Mute Calvin James
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    Apr 13th 2022, 12:35 PM

    @alan scott:
    Turkey, from NATO have used chemical weapons in the war with Kurds in 2015/16

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    Mute Con Cussed
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    Apr 13th 2022, 1:21 PM

    @Calvin James: That doesn’t make it right or acceptable. These are heinous crimes irrespective who carries them out. Turkey is not a country that respects human rights or accepts dissension.

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    Mute Calvin James
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    Apr 13th 2022, 2:17 PM

    @Con Cussed:
    Of course, I’m just pointing out that NATO use chemical weapons when it suits them with zero repercussions or outcry

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    Mute Tom Purcell
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    Apr 13th 2022, 3:09 PM

    @alan scott: Just to be clear – a NATO member country is accused of using them, that not the same as saying NATO uses chemical weapons.

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    Mute John Bathe
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:00 PM

    @Calvin James: thats Turkey.. not an EU country… Russian apologists like yourself keep spouting examples of the likes of US and Turkey.. the core EU countries like ourselves are civilised unlike Russians.. Europe is the core of whats left of world civilisation… dont forget that living in Ireland where you have freedom of speech.. try making comment like that in Russia about Russian state.. see how long you stay free..

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    Mute Calvin James
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:21 PM

    @John Bathe:
    Hmm don’t know how you came to that Russian apologist assumption. I’m just highlighting that Turkey is a NATO country and has used chemical weapons in the past. Mobilising NATO against Russia for doing the same is, you know…Also I’m working in Ukraine getting medical equipment in and orphans out and a good friend of mine was 1 of the lads in the 39th that surrendered in Mariupol yesterday.

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    Mute Thomas O' Donnell
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:23 PM

    @Tom Purcell: Should NATO have not kicked them out so?

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    Mute John Bathe
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:24 PM

    @Calvin James: Turkey are not an EU country… why keep mentioning it, if you are not deflecring from Russian activities? So its OK for Russia to do what it likes ?

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    Mute Calvin James
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:27 PM

    @John Bathe:
    No one is talking about the EU here, it’s all NATO

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    Mute John Bathe
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:48 PM

    @Calvin James: so its ok for Russia to use Chemical weapons them ? Again it is the civilsed EU that is under threat…is it ok for Russia to use chemical weapons? Simple question.. yes or no ?

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    Mute Calvin James
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:55 PM

    @John Bathe:
    Do I have to resort to Ann And Barry terms here, of course it’s not, not once did I say otherwise, I was replying to a comment that suggested NATO should mobilise against Russia for using chemical weapons. I reminded the author that a NATO army has used them themselves, where am I supporting Russia or the use of chemical weapons in this thread? Christ

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    Mute John Bathe
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    Apr 13th 2022, 5:21 PM

    @Calvin James: why bring up Turkey so ? So long as your against Russia using them, then fine…

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    Mute Charles Coughlan
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    Apr 13th 2022, 9:44 PM

    @Calvin James: Ukraine is not in NATO, it wanted to be but it was never going to be, Finland and Sweden are a different matter and will hopefully join in the near future, no matter what that warmonger Putin thinks..

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    Mute Charles Coughlan
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    Apr 13th 2022, 1:35 PM

    1000 Ukrainian marines surrendering to the warmonger, who else besides Putin and those who back him believe in the tooth fairy?

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    Mute Tom Purcell
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    Apr 13th 2022, 3:12 PM

    @Charles Coughlan: And if they did – no body here is qualified to speak negatively of them. What these people would have gone through trying to protect their homeland from the Russian invasion over the last month, is something we can’t even imagine.

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    Mute Charles Coughlan
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    Apr 13th 2022, 1:33 PM

    Who else besides Putin believes in the tooth faury?

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    Mute Ryszard Ewiak
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    Apr 13th 2022, 4:43 PM

    Where are we heading now? In the Book of Daniel, we read, “And both these kings [Great Britain and Russia. In 1882 British troops occupied Egypt. Great Britain then took the role of "the king of the south". Around the same time, Russia expanded its influence in the region, which previously belonged to Seleucus I Nicator, and took the role of "the king of the north"], their hearts (will be) to do mischief, and at one table (they) will speak a lie; but it will not succeed. Indeed yet (the) completion to (the) appointed time. And [the king of the north] will go back (to) his land with great wealth [1945. This detail indicated that after the previous victories Hitler will attack the Soviet Union and will fight to the bitter end]; and his heart (will be) against the holy covenant [Soviet Union introduced state atheism and believers were repressed]; and will act; and go back to his own land [1991-1993. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. The troops from the Soviet military bases returned to their country]. At the appointed time [he] will return back [Russian troops will return to where they were previously stationed. It also means the big crisis, plus the break-up of the EU and NATO], and will enter into the south [because of ethnic conflict (Matthew 24:7)], but it will not be as the former [Georgia - 2008] or as the latter [Ukraine – now. It also will not evolve into WW3. This will happen only later, after Russia returns], for the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the distant West] will come against him, and (he) will broke down [mentally], and will go back.” (11:27-30a) This time it will be a world war not only by name. “The great power sword” will also be used. (Revelation 6:4) Jesus characterized him in this way: “A frightening things both and extraordinary (related to unusual phenomena) from sky powerful will be.” (Luke 21:11) Because of the use of these terrible weapons there will be significant tremors along the length and breadth of the regions [of strategic importance] and famines, and pestilences. Some ancient manuscripts contain the words “and frosts”. The Aramaic Peshitta: “and will be great frosts”. (Luke 21:11) We call this today “nuclear winter”. In Mark 13:8 there are also words of Jesus: “and disorders” (in the sense of confusion and chaos). The Aramaic Peshitta: “and confusion” (on the state of public order). This extremely detailed sign fits only one war. Jesus stated: “All these are but the beginning of the birth pains.” (Matthew 24:8)

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    Mute Chris Linehan
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    Apr 13th 2022, 5:38 PM

    @Ryszard Ewiak: With the amount of interpreted prophecies you’ve stuck in brackets there, you might ask Daniel to look in his book and interpret tonight’s lotto numbers for us all.

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    Mute Aidocasey
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    Apr 13th 2022, 10:10 PM

    @Ryszard Ewiak: do you think anyone will actually read that… no chance..

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