IRELAND must be “realistic and clear-eyed” about China’s strategic goals, the Tánaiste will say in a speech today which is expected to signal a shift in foreign policy in relation to China. 

In what will be analysed as a significant move, he is also due to warn the private sector and academia to increase their levels of awareness about possible risks they are exposed to as a result of any links with China. 

It is expected that although Micheál Martin will say Ireland wants to continue to work with the super power on climate change, human rights and economic growth, he will also outline how China’s behaviour must be monitored. 

Martin, the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence, is due to speak at the Royal Irish Academy’s Annual International Affairs Conference this afternoon where he will follow other world leaders trying to tread a fine line of keeping relations positive while not ignoring signs of increased authoritarianism at home, and stronger support for Russia abroad. 

The event entitled ‘Human (In)Security in an Unsettled World’ will look at the so-called “polycrises” characterised by the perpetual global intersecting issues of environmental and humanitarian disasters. 

The Tánaiste’s address ‘Preserving the International Rules-Based Order – Addressing Risks and Meeting Responsibilities’ comes after the UK and the EU changed their own foreign policy approaches to China.

Martin, it’s understood, will focus on Ireland’s relationship with China in the wake of the war in Ukraine but will pay particular attention to the EU’s most recent interactions with China. 

In the speech, Martin is due to say that both the Irish State and the private sector must not be “naïve or silent” when confronting China’s behaviours which go against the international rules based order as set out in the UN Charter or if they see “evidence of core principles being undermined”.     

The Tánaiste will highlight the need for all Government agencies and the Irish business community to be “realistic and clear-eyed” about China’s strategic objectives, and their implications for Ireland and the EU. He will also acknowledge that China and Ireland have differing world views and this aspect will “inevitably shape” how the two countries interact. 

De-risk, not de-couple

Martin will reference a speech by Ursula von der Leyen in March when she spoke of the concept of “de-risking” relationships with China.

In a stinging criticism of China, she said that President Xi Jinping was “far from being put off by the atrocious and illegal invasion of Ukraine” as he was “maintaining his ‘no limits friendship” with Putin’s Russia.

Von der Leyen added it was clear China under Xi was becoming “more repressive at home and more assertive abroad”.

Beijing’s “clear goal is a systemic change of the international order with China at its centre”, she said.

But she insisted that “it is vitally important that we ensure diplomatic stability and open communication lines with China”.

“I believe it is neither viable — nor in Europe’s interest — to decouple from China,” she said. “We do not want to cut economic, societal, political and scientific ties.”

The head of the EU’s executive arm stressed that “we will never be shy in raising the deeply concerning issues” with Beijing.

“But I believe we must leave space for a discussion on a more ambitious partnership and on how we can make competition fairer and more disciplined.”

Von der Leyen said that on trade, the EU was looking to “rebalance” its relationship “on the basis of transparency, predictability and reciprocity”.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak used similar terminology in a major foreign policy review published in March this year, writing that China poses an “epoch-defining challenge to the type of international order we want to see, both in terms of security and values”, adding that the UK’s ”approach must evolve”.

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He, however, also said that the UK will continue to work with Beijing on issues such as climate change.

“But where there are attempts by the Chinese Communist Party to coerce or create dependencies, we will work closely with others to push back against them,” he said.

“And we are taking new action to protect ourselves, our democracy and our economy at home.”

It appears Martin will echo both Sunak and Von der Leyen’s comments in his speech but will also strongly reject the framing by some of a “west against the rest” scenario. 

The private sector, academic and other stakeholders should build relationships with China where it make sense to do so, he will say, but also will call on them to increase their awareness of their level of exposure and to de-risk where necessary.

He will be clear that this does not mean turning away from economic, diplomatic and cultural relationships as there are many mutually beneficial ties that can be maintained. 

The Irish government will continue to support many Irish businesses in their engagement with China and also to work with the Chinese companies established in Ireland to create jobs and build prosperity, his speech will say. 

With additional reporting from AFP