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AS WE ENTER the month of May, daytime temperatures in Eastern Donetsk will increase in the coming days – averaging in the mid twenties Centigrade as Summer approaches.
Ukraine has a temperate continental climate, and after a very wet Spring, the ground will dry out rapidly, lending itself to an armoured counteroffensive by Zelenskyy’s troops.
After a prolonged and bitterly contested Russian offensive on Bakhmut, Putin’s forces have failed to achieve a decisive victory here. They have failed to fully capture the town or to surround it. Bakhmut has been at the centre of gravity of Putin’s attempt to stage a break-out of Russian forces and Wagner mercenaries toward the Ukrainian strongholds of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Putin’s offensive here has been a grinding onslaught of attrition – referred to by both sides to the conflict as a ‘meatgrinder’. Commenced in February, the Kremlin’s offensive has been a full frontal assault which has been extremely costly in terms of troops killed and wounded in very high numbers. It has also been a very static operation, with very little ground gained.
Simply put, Yevgheny Prigozhin’s Wagner group have failed to achieve the initiative or to gain meaningful momentum in Donetsk.
The costs have been very high. Whitehouse spokesperson on National Security, John Kirby has estimated Russian losses at 20,000 killed in action in and around Bakhmut, with up to 80,000 seriously wounded. At least half of the fatalities have been among the Wagner group – which is now a depleted force, and despite its heretofore notorious reputation, no longer considered a ‘game-changer’ on the battlefield.
Ukrainian losses have also been very high. President Zelenskyy’s spokespeople do not comment on battlefield casualties, but the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has stated that he believes Ukrainian losses, as defenders, are probably slightly less than those of Putin’s forces – but broadly similar nonetheless.
With this high cost, Ukraine appears to have held the line along a front that stretches north-south through Luhansk and Donetsk, all the way through to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. Attention has now turned to what will happen next in the conflict – with many commentators and analysts predicting a major Ukrainian counterattack.
Preparation for the offensive is already underway with Ukrainian strikes on major fuel and ammunition depots behind Putin’s front-line troops – including an attack on a major fuel depot in the Crimea, at Volna, close to the strategically vital Kerch bridge.
The Ukrainian military has also been assembling the equipment and vehicles necessary for rapid, armoured penetration into Russian-held territory. Over the winter period, Zelenskyy’s forces have acquired almost 250 state-of-the-art main battle tanks (MBTs) – including German-manufactured Leopard tanks, UK Challenger tanks and other MBTs from contributing nations across Europe.
These tanks – unlike Putin’s deployed armour – are capable of cross-country speeds of up to 70 Km per hour with an operational range of up to 200 kms. They have sophisticated target acquisition systems and with 120 mm Rheinmetall main armament, are capable of operating at night. Russian forces are not capable of night fighting operations at the present time.
In addition to these MBTs, Ukraine has also built up a fleet of approximately 1,500 armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs). This would allow for significant mechanised infantry support – vital in a kinetic and dynamic assault – which would allow Ukraine to seize and hold significant ground in a short time frame.
In combination, Ukraine now possesses – in MBTs and AFVs – the equivalent of two NATO Armoured Brigades. Depending on how well trained, motivated and integrated Zelenskyy’s units are – such a force represents a very formidable threat to Putin’s largely static and ill-coordinated ground forces. Putin’s generals – having already lost ground to rapid and well-coordinated Ukrainian armoured advances in Luhansk and Kherson – are consolidating their defences. For most of Russia’s units – many of them, ‘scratch’ formations formed up during the recent partial mobilisation before Christmas – this will mean ‘digging in’ to fixed positions and awaiting the Ukrainian assault.
Where and when that assault will take place is a matter of some speculation. Many analysts – myself included – have been predicting an assault through Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on an axis of advance towards Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. Such an assault would sever Putin’s recently acquired ‘land-corridor’ from the Crimean Peninsula to Russia proper. Another option would be to assault deep into Luhansk to drive a wedge behind Putin’s front lines – cutting off tens of thousands of Russian troops in the field.
To this end, Ukraine – with the assistance of NATO, EU and international allies – has been stockpiling 155mm artillery shells and other munitions in order to provide support for their armoured advance. This will allow them to target critical defences, command and control assets and logistics elements of Putin’s forces before Ukrainian forces cross their start lines.
As the ground hardens, Ukraine will be hoping for a very fast-moving and decisive advance. Hoping for a collapse in Russian morale – and hoping to humiliate Putin with a dramatic reversal of fortune in the field. Putin has played his hand at Bakhmut – with very limited results and at a very high cost.
The initiative now appears to lie with Zelenskyy’s forces. The coming days and weeks will tell precisely where Zelenskyy projects his forces.
In the meantime, Putin’s generals have resorted to firing missiles and drones at civilian targets throughout Ukraine – hitting towns such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, destroying apartment blocks and shops. For now, the Kremlin does not appear to have the precision munitions to hit critical military or offensive infrastructure. Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Defence Minister has claimed that he will double the production of ‘precision missiles’ in the coming weeks in order to ‘destroy’ Ukraine’s offensive capability. Such statements hinting at the imminent arrival of ‘wonder weapons’ – in the absence of any meaningful Russian intervention on the conventional battlefield – signal desperation.
Zelenskyy’s forces have gained significant battlefield experience in the last year, have acquired significant military assets and are possibly poised to inflict a serious reversal on Putin’s invasion force in the coming weeks.
This begs the question – ‘What will happen next?’ Will Putin call for a full mobilisation of Russian forces and make a formal declaration of war on Ukraine? Will Putin be tempted to use non-conventional weapons or so-called ‘mini-nukes’ or tactical nuclear weapons to bring Ukraine’s likely counter-offensive to a halt? Putin has used non-conventional weapons in Syria and may do so once more to avoid humiliation and the perception of ‘defeat’ in Ukraine. The principal victims of his ambition and ego are the people of Ukraine. If he somehow succeeds in Ukraine, he will turn his attention further west in due course.
At horrific cost to themselves, Ukrainians are fighting for their country’s survival and in doing so – in a tragedy brought about by Putin’s aggression – they are fighting for the community of values that characterises all of Europe.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is currently an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Eireann.
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We have the usual regurgitation of casualty statistics which come from the defense ministry of Ukraine. Ok, well if you really believe this. You also mention Russia’s war of attrition (correct, they want to demilitarize Ukraine and eliminate combatants) and then point out Russia’s failure to capture any territorial gains. The two aren’t synonymous. In a war of attrition, 30km of territory gained here or lost there means absolutely nothing. What matters in a war of attrition is that you impact more harm on your enemy in terms of manpower, equipment etc than they exact on you. The truth is irrefutable. The great vast of destruction in this war is from missiles & artillery. Russia has an advantage here in at least 10 to 1, most likely much greater. This obsession with territory is a fallacy.
@Ordinary Bloke: if Russia has 10-1 then how come they are not in charge of all of Ukraine? The truth is Russia is getting slaughtered in Ukraine. Just accept it
@Ordinary Bloke: ‘this obsession with territory is a fallacy’. Any chance you could explain what this means? How is it a ‘fallacy’?
@ggg: That unfortunately is part of the strategy, how ‘expendable’ Putin considers Russian conscripts to be. Also, cheap Chinese and Iranian made drones and cruise missiles that have to be defended against using expensive western supplied defensive systems that cost 10 times more than the missile they are trying to shoot down..the attrition strategy is Putin’s only strategy.
@alan: Ukraine/the West and Russia are fighting two different wars. The former are focused on territory (this area is red, this is still blue so we must be winning. So, a nice easy to digest headline) and the latter is steadily focused on a war of attrition, effectively grinding down the enemy. Once the enemy is demilitarized, well you can take all the territory you want then.
@Ordinary Bloke: Ukraine is winning the attrition war also. 7 to 1 in terms of casualties in Bakmunt in favour of Ukraine. Russia was firing in excess of 100 missiles at a time late last year, the most recent one they fired 18. You are correct in saying they have a massive advantage in terms of artillery however they are no longer firing 20,000 shells a day.
@Ordinary Bloke: thats the stupidest military strategy ever.
@Ordinary Bloke: a blind man can see that Bachmut is a decoy, a very expensive decoy for the Russians. It’s nothing more than a meat grinder., which is great for the Ukrainians and bad for the Russians who have poured manpower and weapons into it for the last six months making them pay for every square meter of it with blood misdirection is a good tactic which means when the Ukrainian offensive starts the Russians won’t be ready for where it will be. They’ll still be throwing their soldiers at a city that nobody but the Russian wants.
@Ordinary Bloke: if Russia are trying to eliminate combatants then why are they attacking apartment blocks & supermarkets?
@ggg: They are not! I don’t believe western media at all. I follow both Ukranian and Russian telegram channels and I can tell you it doesn’t look pretty for the Ukrainians at all in fact ist really sad as the Russians are just killing so many poorly trained and equipped Ukrainians in ratios of around 8-1 if not more. you can hardly find a successful Ukrainian offence since last year.
@Ordinary Bloke: MR Tom Clonan, if you are so anxious for more Ukrianen men and Russian boys to kill each other you haven’t learned anything about the history of mankind: After thousands of years of terrible wars you still think it is OK to continue with this barbarism! It solves nothing and you conveniently forget the faith of all mankind is at stake if Russia is pushed into using its NUKS!
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. -Albert Einstein
We as a species must come to our senses if we want to stick around on this speck of dust wandering around the vastness of the Universe! If we don’t manage to make the necessary changes and communicate better with each other without killing each other because cheerleaders for murder and destruction get to post calls for continued WAR!
Blessed are the peace makers !
@Ordinary Bloke:
Clonan sounds like a NATO front. What are his credentials as a military expert?
I get my information from (amongst others) Col. Douglas McGregor, a decorated US Army colonel and government official. He played a significant role on the battlefield in the Gulf War and the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.
He is certainly more knowledgeable and gives a completely different viewpoint than Clonan.
With Ordinary Bloke’s analysis all the way, we have been fed tripe like this by Tom and his ilk for over a year. The Russians will win hands down, and Tom recycling all the above NATO talking points won’t change that. Just doing his bit to ensure his value and display allegiance to the Collective West military / security establishment. Have read and followed much more balanced and independent voices than his, since 2013/14:when this all actually kicked off and will continue to do so, just dropped by to see if he had seen the light…..
@Daithi Buachalla: This is the invasion where Russia was supposed to have overwhelmed and occupied Ukraine within a few weeks. A bit rich and optimistic (if that’s what you really want) to be claiming Russia will “win hands down”.
@Daithi Buachalla: instead of winning ‘hands down,’ the Russians are in fact losing ‘hands up.’
Another omission is whilst crowing about the fantastic new tanks Ukraine is getting you didn’t point out that a hodgepodge of different tanks, missiles, armaments from different countries creates a nightmare from a logistics & maintenance standpoint. Wars are to a large extent won by the maintenance, repair and support teams far away from the frontlines. The lack of standardization of equipment (tanks are high, high maintenance) will be a a true maintenance nightmare here with service happening in Poland.
@Ordinary Bloke: Standardization is not exactly Russia’s forte either, sourcing military components and hardware from Iran, N.Korea, China and Ali-Baba type websites. Some of the kit being given to Russian conscripts leave a lot to be desired, helmets, body armor etc.
@Ordinary Bloke: I’m borrowing a few sentances from Thomas C. Theiner on Twitter, cause he says it far better than I ever could:
Mixing of vehicles in Ukraine’s brigades is absolutely irrelevant to the success of the offensive. Those vehicles need to be in the fight for 2-3 weeks. All that matters is: to they work? do they protect? are there enough? is there enough fuel? is there enough ammo?
Armies all try to have very few vehicles, but that is a cost-cutting measure dictated by pennypinchers in the finance ministries. For the offensive Ukraine needs all and will use all vehicles it can get. Right now the mix of vehicles in the brigades doesn’t matter.
Also, the Bradleys out-range and out-shoot all russian tanks.
@Daniel O’Neill: Sentences! Grrr typo.
This will be my final comment on the article. It states Russian tanks are incapable of fighting at night. This is untrue. The Russian T-90 is a night fighting tank, a more modern equivalent of anything in the West. Russia produced 1,500 (one thousand five hundred) of them last year.
@Ordinary Bloke: Leopard 1A5s can’t go front on against a T-80 or T-90. However the Challenger 2 and the Leopard 2A6 can survive anything a Russian tank can shoot at them. The T-90 has a reverse speed of 6km/h which will suit western APFSDS rounds.
At night Russian tank crews (T-90 included) will not be able to see Western tanks, while western tanks will be able to see 5km.
@Ordinary Bloke: no they didnt! where did you pull that number from? there are only approx 1000 t90s in existence period. and russia only has about 400 of those the rest were exported. plus all the optics on the t90 are made in the west .
@Ordinary Bloke: 1,500 was a claim made by Medvedev, from what I believe, proven to be untrue. The claim was that, if Russia had these kind of numbers, why would they be using the export version T-90S, in Ukraine, when the T-90A/M is the model used by the Russian Armed Forces.
@The Bolt: Not sure but I have seen it reported that Russia didn’t want to deploy too many of the T90 tanks for fear that their vulnerabilities against western ordinance wouldn’t be a good showcase for their export market to countries like India. They are definitely a less expensive tank and lighter because it’s armor is lighter than its competitors.
@Ordinary Bloke: Old Russian T55 and T56 had infrared night vision they slaughtered Israeli tanks in Golan in 73 the Israelis were blind as their tanks lacked the night vision. and lead the recapture of the Golan by the Syrian Army and then Nixon sent 100s of tanks to Israel to help them defeat the Syrians and illegally occupy the Golan. No all Russian tanks have night vision
They are trying to silence us, find out at #NoHateSpeechLaws Before it’s too late.
@Dave Huston: dont be a gowl dave
@Dave Huston: You again. What a dose bot boy!
@Dave Huston:
Absolutely! Very dangerous Bill, intended to stop dissention.
Starting to feel this will rage on with cowardly Nato countries passing the buck their citizens in price hikes etc. Even giving the Irish government a lovely cushion for their shortcomings on housing price hikes and taxes.
What’s a couple of hundred thousand troops lost to someone like putin. Nothing.
@Paddy Ryan: After the initial Russian conscription fiasco, Russia is reportedly now working on a new digital mobilization system much like the Chinese social credit system but a militarized version assigning a conscription “credit score” that will trace and track the conscription of all eligible Russian citizens based on a score with the most expendable and least desirable in society being conscripted first, poor people, criminals, minorities, dissidents, basically people who won’t be missed or raise social discontent in Russia if they’re lost. Putin realizes this is not the quick and easy war he intended it now has to be a war of attrition and it’s one big advantage is expendable manpower.
@Diaspora’d: although Russia is being pulverised in this war. I fear they will ultimately win this war. Putin will just keep sending wave after wave of fresh troops until the job is done. Just like stalin did in the second world war. Hopefully I’m wrong.
@Paddy Ryan: Gladly, I believe you are indeed wrong. Stalin didn’t win the eastern front because he was willing to use his soldiers as cannon fodder, he won because the US and UK gave him a huge amount of lend-lease equipment and supplies. Everything from tanks to buttons.
@Paddy Ryan: You could well be correct, a long war of attrition is just what the Russians seem to want, wear down the Ukranians, the west will tire of spending billions upon billions and encouraging the slaughter of civilians and conscripts to continue, but not before the securing long term very lucrative contracts to rebuild the country for huge profits. When was the last time we heard of the EU announcing with pomp that they were sending billions to Ukraine? It’s been a while, they’re already getting fatigued. Sure wasn’t the actor himself showcasing the country as the place to come to do business a few months ago, IT, construction, engineering etc etc. But the outcome will still be the same, a broken Ukraine, just a matter of how many more 100s of 1000s of more deaths to come. But I disagree with your first line, Russia itself is barely touched except for a small attacks here and there. It is Ukrainian towns and cities that are being pulverised. Now, I think I need to go out an buy more Jameson, no foreign ambassador will convince me otherwise. :)
@Chris Thaunton: I’ll be supporting Teelings, a morally superior whiskey.
@Chris Thaunton: if russia wants a war of attrition then they have to be the stupidest military on the planet. no one plans for their own high casuties in men and material.
@Daniel O’Neill: they lost over 8 million troops
@Paddy Ryan: I think its the opposite Ukrainians are just pulling kids from the streets in sending them after two weeks of training to the front today they are losing in a ratio of 7-1 to the Russians who are far superior in every aspect of this war. don’t believe the Western media and British intelligence.
As George Beebe, a former head of Russia analysis at the CIA said about the Ukraine crisis in 2022:
“John Kennedy observed that the chief lesson of the Cuban missile crisis was that the leaders of nuclear superpowers needed to defuse crises by helping each other find mutual, face-saving compromises. That applies today, no less than in 1962. The window of opportunity for averting disaster is fast closing.”
That is even more the case now in 2023.
Tom spewing NATO propaganda as per usual.
It’s absolutely hilarious how many mor@ns here eat the ridiculous propaganda western media churns out! Ukraine is losing massive amounts of men far more than Russia due to there superior artillery.
Peace negotiations will be the only way this is resolved and until the US are willing to change there objectives in Ukraine this will not happen!
@joe moody = mor@n
@I9AQcjXs: correct: the ONLY solution is in PEACE TALKS if Ukraine is to survive in any shape or form: STOP THE WAR: GIVE PEACE A CHANCE .Peace and love to all!
The end is nigh for this “wag the dog” war .
Yep, nothing new under the sun. brought to you by the Yiddish mafia sponsored war since the Orange Revolution. different faces same puppeteer Viktoria Nuland ( another prominent member of the same mafia ) is pulling the strings from DC
It’s so incred
It’s worth noting that all NATO equipment, wherever it’s made, all use the same ammunition. This standardisation is critical to an Ukrainian victory. Tens of thousands of their troops have been undergoing serious training over the past six months in different NATO countries. The offensive, when it starts will be properly focused and properly planned. Just like the September offensive but on a much bigger scale. It’s going to take Putin breath away, along with everything else, including many of the idiots commenting here.
@Liam Dunne:
“Tens of thousands of their troops have been undergoing serious training over the past six months in different NATO countries.”
Correction: Tens of thousands of their troops have been undergoing serious training over the past EIGHT YEARS in different NATO countries. Ever since the US-backed overthrew the democratically elected government in 2014, in fact.
US under secretary of State Victoria Nuland at the time (who is still directing the war from Washington, together with Anthony Blinken) personally chose the members of the new pro-US government, which immediately proceeded to shell the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine in order to “Ukrainize” them, killing 14,000 persons.
If 14,000 Catholics had been killed in the North during the Troubles you would probably been amonst the first to call for the Irish government to intervene to protect the Catholics there, many of whom were also Irish citizens.
It is almost impossible to believe anything coming out of Ukraine for obvious reasons and given the reporting, it in ways seems like a ‘ gentleman’s war’. Nobody is reporting attacks on Crimea, which seems to be a Russian supply line. ‘ Putin’s Bridge’, another serious supply line remains untouched and sanctions seem to be just the tip of the iceberg, esp London. Given the ‘ instability’ within Russian and the number of, sadly, dead Russians, is it not now time to use cyber technology / hacking to exploit that instability within Russia. The media is presently obsessed by the lie of an assassination attempt instead of reducing the flow of weapons which might save thousands on both sides.
@ Con cussed: wow what an insightful rebuttal, thank you for enlightening me..
It really shows the depths of your ignor@nce!
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