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The New York City skyline obscured in June 2023 during Canadian wildfires Alamy

'Ninety-nine percent' chance that 2023 will be hottest year of modern records

July broke the record for the hottest month since pre-industrial times.

2023 IS HIGHLY likely to be the warmest year of modern records, according to analysis by a climate data organisation.

Berkeley Earth, a non-profit organisation in the US that records and analyses data on global temperatures and air pollution, has released its analysis for July – the hottest month on record.

“Surprisingly strong warming” in June and July, coupled with the likelihood of a strong El Niño event (a periodic pattern of warmer weather), have increased the possibility that 2023 will be the warmest year on record to “99%”, making it “virtually certain”, Berkeley Earth said. 

“This forecast probability is higher than last month’s report, when the likelihood of a record warm year was estimated at 81%. It also represents a large change from the forecast at the beginning of the year (before the development of El Niño), when only a 14% chance of a record 2023 was estimated.”

The average temperature across the earth last month was 17.2 degrees Celsius, the first-ever monthly average ever recorded of more than 17 degrees.

The previous record was set in July 2019, which has been beaten by 0.26 degrees in what Berkeley Earth has called a “surprisingly large margin, well outside the margin of uncertainty”.

July 2023 was around 1.54 degrees hotter than the average temperature in the period of 1850 to 1900. Records were broken both on land and at sea, with the North Atlantic reaching an all-time high temperature.

Overall, 84% of the Earth’s surface was “significantly warm” compared to the average at a local level compared to the period of 1951 to 1980, and 10.8% experienced its warmest July average locally.

There were particularly warm conditions observed in the North Atlantic, Eastern Equatorial Pacific, Northern South America, Mexico, Northern Africa, and Northern Canada.

Berkeley Earth’s analysis has found that the record temperatures last month were driven primarily by the combined effect of human-caused global warming and a strengthening of the El Niño.

It also may have been influenced to a lesser extent, according to Berkeley Earth, by an underwater volcanic eruption last year that sent a high concentration of water vapour into the atmosphere; new rules on shipping in recent years that reduced sulfur emissions (which had a short-term cooling effect); and the current stage of the 11-year solar activity cycle, which can cause slightly warmer conditions during phases of increased solar radiation. 

Climate scientists look not only at temperature averages, but also at a measurement called temperature anomaly – the amount that a temperature diverged from the average of a given time period.

The global mean anomaly in July was the “most extreme ever observed during Northern [hemisphere] summer”.

“One of the Paris Agreement goals is to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline,” Berkeley Earth stated.

“That goal is defined in reference to the average of climate over many years, so a few individual months above 1.5 degrees do not automatically mean that the target has been exceeded.

“However, isolated anomalies above 1.5 degrees are a sign that the Earth is getting close to that limit. It is likely that global warming will cause the long-term average to exceed 1.5  degrees during the 2030s unless significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are achieved soon.”

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    Mute Alan McBride
    Favourite Alan McBride
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 5:30 PM

    He shouldn’t get out at all but at least its a fairly long sentence. Not as long as the victims though. RIP. If it were here he’d probably be sentenced to 12 years with 9 suspended and be out in 18 months with good behaviour. Only a slight exaggeration!

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    Mute Aoife McFadden
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:08 PM

    Easy words for you to spit of your righteous mouth but I’m afraid Alan that it is God who makes the final judgement and we are ALL God’s children, even those who stray and commit horrendous crimes like rape and murder. The question to ask is how can a child of God stray so far from the righteous path? Simple… Without the sanctity of Christ in your heart and without the moral integrity which comes from The Church, any of can and do stray. Unfortunately for Mr. Whant, he crossed a line which is near impossible to recover from. Still, through the grace of God and through confession he can come to let Christ enter his heart and be fully absolved. I pray for him.

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    Mute Adrian De Cleir
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:42 PM

    That sounds like a pretty cool story aofie, please tell us more.

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    Mute Chris Fogarty
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:48 PM

    Where was God when he committed those crimes? Nowhere to be found.

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    Mute Brian Ó Dálaigh
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:52 PM

    @ Aoife – where was your merciful God for poor Nikitta?

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    Mute Declan O'Neill
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 8:32 PM

    Ugh, Aoife can you pass me a bucket!

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    Mute Sheila Murphy
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 8:35 PM

    Hi Aoife; after much reflection and thought over a long time period, I realised that I could no longer consider myself Catholic and would opt out if the option was available to me, so therefore I would be a person that you (from your comment) would consider does not “have Jesus in my heart”. However there is absolutely no way I would commit a deed like this or even anything less than or like it. Jesus in one’s heart (or not) has nothing to do with this type of terrible atrocity that the perpetrator committed. Therefore to me your comment has absolutely no logic.

    I’m glad for you if you find your faith a comfort and a support.But just because someone has jesus in their heart does not preclude them from carrying out terrible deeds.

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    Mute Rommel Burke
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 8:39 PM

    Aoife, why not give up preaching for Lent?

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    Mute William Grogan
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 10:01 PM

    Aoife, you are bonkers. It’s that simple.

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    Mute ponythegringo
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 11:29 PM

    @ Adrian De Cleir , i have a pain in me belly from your comment, laughing so much , thank you

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    Mute Randy savage
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 12:27 AM

    aoife you make me sick to my stomach, what a wicked thing for you to say.

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    Mute Stadler Waldorf
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 2:50 AM

    @Aoife Please crawl back under your rock and bring your sanctimonious preaching with you

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    Mute Michael Russell
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 5:32 PM

    Only 35 years? Why can’t these judges hand out “for the reminder of life” sentences?

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    Mute Brendan Crowe
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:22 PM

    @Aoife I think for you to link morality and the church is absurd. I don’t believe in God. but being a good person is my Religion. the guy is obviously a psychopath and no amount of praying will change that. He deserves to be locked up for 35 years, He chose to do what he did. We are all responsible for our actions

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    Mute Nora Butler
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:34 PM

    Aoife are you for real? That girl (RIP) parents got to see their unborn grandchild (RIP) on a mortuary slab and you are praying for him…. I think I’m going to have to pray for you!!!!

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    Mute Ciaro
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 6:15 PM

    He picked the wrong country, if he was convicted in Ireland he would be released in 12 years at the most.

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    Mute Opinion Ated
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 7:33 PM

    I’d pray for the dead mother and her unborn baby myself Aoife. He’ll have plenty of time to pray for himself in the next 35 years.

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    Mute Red Ed
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 6:18 PM

    35 years should mean 35 years even if he dies in prison they should bury him there until his time is served. That would help prevent crimes this gruesome from occurring.

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    Mute Shanners
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 8:04 PM

    Aoife had found a very successful trolling tactic.

    35 years is a proper sentence. not enough, but much better than the ridiculous sentences handed out here.

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    Mute James Halford
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 8:56 PM

    Deserves the death penalty if you ask me. Sick bastard. Hope he rots in prison.

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    Mute Joan Featherstone
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 9:02 PM

    Relax Aoife is a troll, she couldn’t be for real!!!!

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    Mute Mary Cullinane
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 9:32 PM

    @aoife I’m afraid your thinking totally defies logic, I know very many people who do not believe in God and who most definitely are not part of any specific Church & they are all very good living people who’s main aim in life is to treat others as they would like to be treated. I believe in a Spiritual Being, call it God or whatever but I also know that I have a choice in life of making up my own mind as to what path I take…..that’s what free will is, we all have a conscience and it is up to each of us to follow our conscience as we see fit & a person who commits a crime of this nature to me is totally evil true & true. You can contemplate forever about what made him that way but to say that it is because he doesn’t go the path of being part of a Church or that he doesn’t have God in his heart is rubbish, if as you say we are all God’s children is true, then why didn’t God intervene & prevent this man doing this terrible deed? free will & the freedom to follow our own conscience is the reason & like all things in life we all have to take responsibility for our own actions.

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    Mute Sean Mc Avinue
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 8:53 PM

    The penalty is not 35 years, that is judged by the prisoners as they have their own court. That’s his main fear

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    Mute Randy savage
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 12:31 AM

    This utter guttertrash subhuman scumbag should ride the lighting for what he has done. Man i get so p…d off when i read this stuff and then the likes of Aoife bleeding heart liberal dancing at the cross roads with the parish priest wants to pray for this piece of crap. Id love to meet this guy and knock seven maybe even eight shades of shite out of him. apologies for the minor bad language but im so angry at this story.

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    Mute Helen Clinton
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 12:56 AM

    Well said Randy. I couldn’t agree more.

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    Mute Lin Waring
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 8:51 PM

    Well said…….Maybe, Aoife wouldnt be so quick to forgive this awful scum if it was his family that had been affected……xx

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    Mute jimmy
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    Feb 24th 2012, 12:24 AM

    here here ! comment of the day randy !

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    Mute Adam Cullen
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 12:27 AM

    Funny considering how some of the worst atrocities known to man have been committed in the name of God!

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    Mute Eoin Hennebry
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    Feb 22nd 2012, 11:53 PM

    Aoife???? Actually like???? I hope somebody out there is praying for you!! Crazy logic!!

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    Mute SirRichie Van Piimpp
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 9:03 AM

    It is amazing, with a dreadful story like above… everyone focuses on a comment made my a troll (I think)

    Get off yer high horses and loose the religious stance…. this murder/rape is a terrible act and we should all rally around in support rather than blasting a troll…

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    Mute Deirdre Forde
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 10:32 AM

    Couldn’t agree more. My thoughts are with her family.

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    Mute Francis Hoban
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 6:56 AM

    This women is as cracked as an egg but that’s not the point all thoughts should for that poor family

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    Mute Séa Graham
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 8:51 AM

    @Aoife. get help. I pity your children and the brainwashing they must be going through.

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    Mute Jessica Armstrong
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    Feb 24th 2012, 2:22 AM

    how can some1 do that and NOT get a death sentence whats wrong with the justice system it amazes me sumtimes

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    Mute Pa McGarry
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    Feb 23rd 2012, 9:12 AM

    The troll is moon

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