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Chairperson of An Coimisiún Toghcháin, Ms Justice Marie Baker and Chief Executive Art O’Leary. PA Images/Alamy Stock Photo

Something has to give, the number of TDs can't keep pace with our growing population

The election map is changing but nowhere near quickly enough.

“THE POPULATION IS increasing at the rate of two TDs a year.”

This observation by Chairperson Marie Baker outlines one of the major challenges faced by The Electoral Commission as it sought to fairly redraw Ireland’s electoral map.

The Supreme Court Judge is of course not speaking literally, it’s not that there are two new TDs born every year, it’s that the number of TDs required per resident of the State is not keeping up with population growth.

Under Article 16.2 of the Constitution, there must be a TD for every 20,000-30,000 people. This ratio is calculated across the country as a whole but “so far as it is practicable”,it must be balanced across the country.

We’ll take a look at that second part a bit later, but for now let’s examine the first.

As of last year’s Census which recorded a population of just under 5.15 million, there is currently one TD for every 32,182 people.

That’s based on the 160 TDs we currently have and it’s clear that the figure is above the constitutional limit.

The Electoral Commission was given the remit of increasing the number of TDs within the range of 171 and 181 TDs. An increase of between 11 and 21.

In the it’s recommendation published today, the Commission decided not to go near the top of the range, in fact landing closer to the bottom end at 174 TDs, an increase of 14.

What’s curious about this decision is that, while it takes us back within the Constitutional limits, it does so by the width of a ballot paper.

If adopted, there would now be a TD for every29,593 people. Within the limits, but just about.

With Ireland’s population increasing by361,721 people from Census 2016 to Census 2022, it’s clear that the trendline puts us outside the limits again soon. Probably as soon as the next Census coming around.

So why didn’t the Commission recommend more TDs to avoid us having to do it all over again? After all, they had the freedom to go up to 181 TDs.

There are two main reasons. Firstly, they say, it wasn’t their role to “future-proof” what the map looks like.

In its 150-page report, the Commission says that it was “neither possible, nor appropriate” to attempt to predict how much the population will grow.

The Commission said it considered “public and media commentary” around the fact that increasing TDs to the higher end of the 171-181 range “was perceived as a means of ‘future-proofing’”

It added: “However, future-proofing is not one of the terms of reference.”

Put simply, the Commission feels it has done its job on the numbers to the letter, but no more.

Split decision

a-journalist-looks-at-a-map-of-ireland-during-a-press-confrence-at-the-royal-college-of-physicians-dublin-for-the-electoral-commission-announcement-of-the-much-anticipated-new-constituency-boundarie Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

The second reason for not recommending a bigger increase was about what that would look like.

Asked by The Journal today why the Commission didn’t choose the higher end of TD increases, Baker said doing so would have “resulted in a vast amount of breaches of county boundaries.”

“It was in fact, quite chaotic,” she said.

The Commission said it took its cues from the Electoral Reform Act 2022 which laid down the terms of reference they had to work under. One of the terms was that “the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as practicable”.

So even if having more TDs would have meant for a more future-proofed Dáil, it would also have meant greater fragmentation.

“Future-proofing is definitely a topic but it’s not part of our terms of reference,” Baker explained.

But it’s much more problematic than that. The population is increasing, if it continues at the current rate it’s increasing at the rate of two TDs a year. But the problem is, where?

“You might have said that 180 seats would have future-proofed, but we then had to allocate those seats. And because you don’t know where the increase is going to happen, you don’t know where to allocate the seats. It’s not a simple exercise of calculating how many we might need in five years’ time. It’s an exercise of how many we need now and where they go.”

chairperson-of-an-coimisiun-toghchain-justice-marie-baker-during-a-press-confrence-at-the-royal-college-of-physicians-dublin-for-the-electoral-commission-announcement-of-the-much-anticipated-new-con Chairperson of An Coimisiún Toghcháin Justice Marie Baker. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

In terms of where they go, that brings us back to the Constitutional requirement that the ratio of TDs to people has to be geographically“so far as it is practicable”.

What that means is that the national average one TD per 29,593 people mentioned earlier does not necessarily have to be met across every constituency. In fact, there are many constituencies where it does not.

Some areas are above that average and some are below. The Commission refers to this as ‘variance’ from the average.

Variance is always measured but it’s noteworthy that even with these changes the variance will now be greater in the next election than in any other election since 1980.

Generally speaking, a variance of 5% above or below the average has been considered a fair number but this is not backed up in law.

Under these changes however, there will be constituency variances in the next election of 8% both above and below the average, significantly the largest figure in most recent 10 elections.

PastedImage-55522 Electoral Commission Electoral Commission

Time to change

The figures demonstrate the constraints the Commission was working under and ultimately show that something has to give.

The options are changing the Constitution to allow a greater ratio of TDs per person or changing the law to allow six-seaters, perhaps allowing the constitutional ratio to be kept the same but giving those drawing the map more options.

“This is a big constitutional question,” says Baker.

“The Constitution says insofar as practicable, that there should be equality of representation. That recognises that mathematical parity isn’t either desirable or achievable, it’s certainly not achievable. We took the view that the way in which the Oireachtas, in the legislation, identifies the relevant factors, such as the preservation of countries boundaries, was the Oireachtas’ way of telling us hat practicable might mean.”

Asked if it would simply be better to change ratio, Baker confirmed that this is something the Commission will be working on next.

“It is a research topic we intend to engage in immediately, it would require constitutional change of course but it’s a research topic and I think we intend to start a discussion about it.”

A discussion perhaps that the Oireachtas must consider having too.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:18 PM

    The US is the epitome of do and I say not as I do.

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    Mute Symon
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:24 PM

    @Ger Whelan: as

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    Mute Darran Macken
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:34 PM

    @Ger Whelan: agreed to an extent about that statement, only thing is that tik toc is a danger the tik toc in China and Asia as a whole promotes education, music instruments tutorials, math ect, the European and American versions promote life distractions and dumbing down of children, I see it myself with my grandchildren they have little attention span zero social skills there schooling gets affected by constant distractions on that app particularly and of course there is the security issue of privacy but all in all tic tok would not amend their app in America so the ban has to be done.

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    Mute Chop Chop
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:57 PM

    @Darran Macken: Naive parents giving children phones is the real problem here, but you are correct, apps like tik tok turn children into zombies.

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    Mute Niall O'Cofaigh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:59 PM

    @Darran Macken: interesting that you comment about tiktok being different in other locations as when I initially joined tiktok most of the content was from Asia but over time that changed and the content became more local Irish, UK and USA based. I actually preferred seeing how other cultures lived and farmed etc.. and I think tiktok is no worse than google or meta in data collection. The USA is practicing isolationism and censorship by the action of banning tiktok and hypocrisy by also not banning Google and Meta for the information they collect

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    Mute BrennJam
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:37 PM

    @Ger Whelan: Most powerful country in the world…it’s like a mom smoking a cigarette and telling a child not to….do it kid and FAFO!!!!

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    Mute Nemethon
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:06 PM

    @Darran Macken: Hi Darren what your seeing in your grandchildren wasn’t as a direct result of TikTok it’s as a result of social media in general especially Snapchat. Often heard my friend saying about his 4 daughters sat in the same room and my friend asking what you all doing and they reply messaging each other. I said to him the art of conversation is gone on the younger generation. It’s so so sad.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:16 PM

    @Darran Macken: So Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat etc have no negative effects on your grandchildren? Pull the other one. The only difference between tictok and all the other social media apps is tictok is Chinese and they get your data and the rest are American and they get your data.

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    Mute Ted Daly
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:07 PM

    @Darran Macken: our version has all and every bit of the educational vids too you know. People just choose to watch daft influencers dancing.

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:28 PM

    @Darran Macken: the thing is that this could be said of any social media app. If they’re being banned for rotting minds then ban them all. I’d have no issue with that. But the current reason for banning it is made up because it’s hurting the profitability of American competitors

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    Mute Diarmuid Hunt
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:44 PM

    @Niall O’Cofaigh: When did you join out of interest? If you were an early adopter of a new app it’s not surprising at all that over time as it became ubiquitous in the West you saw more content generated in the West. However, if you know when you joined and it is much later than when it became popular that might be interesting.

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    Mute Eoghan Augusta
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:28 PM

    This is amazing, all the “content” creators in America won’t know what to do!

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    Mute Jack Hayes
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:22 PM

    @Eoghan Augusta: They do and many have started doing it.

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    Mute Joe Willis
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:19 PM

    @Eoghan Augusta: what about Daniel Larson? He is the greatest US creator and it will be sad to see him go.

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:30 PM

    @Eoghan Augusta: ironically tens of thousands of them have already switched to Rednote, which is similar to tiktok but is directly owned by the Chinese government, and they’re quite happy to give their data. So it is already back firing on Congress. Mark Zuckerberg pushed for this ban, no doubt thinking that Americans would switch to Instagram reels but that isn’t happening and Metas share price has been dropping in the last week and a bit.

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    Mute Daniel Gilroy
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:52 PM

    Can we not ban the United States instead. Think most of the world is sick to the teeth of the constant warmongering BS.

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    Mute Barry Gallagher
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:46 PM

    Don’t use tok tok so have no opinion should it be banned. Would however agree to a EU ban on X and possibly Facebook. The amount of dangerous propaganda and lies spread on these sites is outrageous!

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    Mute Mark Dunne
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:50 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: you must be wrapped in cotton wool

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    Mute Chop Chop
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:57 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: Any examples of this “dangerous propaganda” that you’d like to share with the rest of the class?

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:02 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: just crawl under your sisters bed and put your fingers in your ears Barry. No one can hurt you there.

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    Mute Barry Gallagher
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:05 PM

    @Freda Peeple: so you agree with weirdo Musk that he can use X to further his own agenda with disinformation and lies to achieve world domination or whatever the hell his aim is. He certainly doesn’t care about you or me or the plain people of America. Worse than Goebbels but far bigger audience. Would love to see Zuckerberg the spineless coward get his comeuppance after firing his fact checkers. Facebook will become a bigger sewer than it already is. Thank God I never joined it!

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    Mute Joe Willis
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:23 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: why don’t we ban Jewish owned media while we’re at it as they push their own Zionist agenda too? For example – Sky, BBC, Pretty much every single news outlet in the United States I’m not going to list all of them, Facebook, Instagram, ChatGPT, Google, YouTube etc. Should be van all these sites? That’s almost all the internet that people use.

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    Mute Damien Leahy
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:29 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: now where did you hear his plan is world domination? Its almost like its media driven. That’s ironic isn’t it

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:32 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: agreed. Both platforms are toxic way beyond anything on Tiktok.

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    Mute Chop Chop
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:33 PM

    @Barry Gallagher: You seem to have an in-depth knowledge of it despite never having joined it. Strange. Almost like you’re talking out of your hole.

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:34 PM

    @Joe Willis: neither sky nor BBC are “Jewish owned”. And I would never watch American news broadcasters because I am not a child that needs to be told what to think.

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    Mute Barry Gallagher
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:41 PM

    @Chop Chop: Alright cowboy! Never read Mein Kamph either! Doesn’t mean it wasn’t a load of Bollix..

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    Mute Barry Gallagher
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    Jan 17th 2025, 8:03 PM

    @Joe Willis: Sure agree with you to an extent, no media is perfect which is why I would treat a lot of it with a pinch of salt. But I have never heard Sky News or the BBC etc promote wild conspiracy theories such as FEMA and hurricanes, Pizza Gate, stolen elections and California wild fires to mention a few. He sets the algorithm too which favours pro far right. Tens of millions of Maga nuts believe this stuff which you know full well.

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    Mute Joe Willis
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    Jan 18th 2025, 12:53 PM

    @Gearoid MacEachaidh: Sky is owned by Comcast. Comcast founder and CEO is a Jew, Brian L. Roberts.

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:25 PM

    Does Trump think the expendables was a documentary?

    27
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    Mute honey badger
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:27 PM

    @Freda Peeple: Your first three words would have completed your query…

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    Mute Furious George - The Wasp
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:34 PM

    @Freda Peeple: retired and dangerous

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:52 PM

    @honey badger: Touché mr badger

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    Mute Peter Connaughton
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:13 PM

    @Freda Peeple: Miss Badger

    1
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    Mute Diarmuid Hunt
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:45 PM

    @Peter Connaughton: How did you check?

    1
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    Mute Marc Power
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:42 PM

    Very wrong and a continuation on the American return to isolation

    23
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    Mute Gerry Dornan
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:06 PM

    So much for freedom of speech…

    14
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    Mute Joe Willis
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:27 PM

    @Gerry Dornan: Wasn’t Musk vilified when he said a couple of weeks ago that he is upset at the child gang rapes in the UK? They said he was ‘interfering’ in another countries affairs. So much for freedom of speech then.

    6
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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:37 PM

    @Joe Willis: he was vilified for posting lies about it.

    1
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    Mute David Guiney
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:37 PM

    Now, instead of the CCP all up in their stuff, Americans will now have the NSA all up in their stuff.

    12
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    Mute Paddy Murphy
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:07 PM

    @David Guiney: The only reason they want to ban Tic Toc is because NSA does not have backdoor access.

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    Mute Jack Hayes
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    Jan 17th 2025, 4:24 PM

    Good news for RedNote, Lemon8 and Clapper though.

    7
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    Mute Fergus O'Donnell
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:43 PM

    So much freedom…lol.
    Most controlled society in the western world, but as long as they have enough guns for several mass shootings everyday they’re happy.

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    Mute Denis Harkin
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:07 PM

    Tiktok is a fantastic source of global political soundbites and video. That’s why butcher Biden banned it. The US is becoming the most censored and controlled media in the world.

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    Mute Conor Mc
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:54 PM

    If the chinese ever spy on my phone, they’ll find that half the time I’m on the phone to a Chinese anyway, ordering me queen chicken with chips and coke

    8
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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:38 PM

    @Conor Mc: I have a Chinese made phone. I make sure no one ever speaks bad about them around me in case they’re listening. Great bunch of lads the Chinese.

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jan 17th 2025, 3:44 PM

    Someone’s gonna make a fortune from this eventually, Who tho? they aint publicly traded

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    Mute Setanta O'Toole
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:11 PM

    US Politics consumes itself with some complete bullshit to be fair. How is TikTok being allowed or not, going to help the average american that both sides kept bleating on about helping on the campaign trail? Every social media site spies on you. Basically just an exercise to have the right people controlling the surveillance.

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    Mute no no no
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:15 PM

    So the court decided the ban is valid. Time for US teens to wake up and learn that “tik toker” is no job. Wonder what happens to the social media influencer courses offered by some irish universities now. Will those who started it finish or look for something “real” instead

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    Mute Mick O'K
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:29 PM

    @no no no: The US Supreme Court has no jurisdiction in Ireland. But you’re 100% right they should get real jobs

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    Mute Niall English
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:29 PM

    @no no no: yeah I tend to agree. another job title that grinds me in ‘content creator’. say one person describe themselves as a ‘social media presence consultant’.

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:42 PM

    @no no no: many tiktokers are making more in a week than we make in a year. It’s time for boomers and my fellow Gen Xers to accept that social media influencer IS a job, whether we like it or not.

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    Mute Diarmuid Hunt
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:45 PM

    @Gearoid MacEachaidh: Might be the next big economic bubble…

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 8:10 PM

    @Diarmuid Hunt: might be but it’s been going on since the early 00s with YouTube. Plenty of people have made foutunes, there, and on Vine, Instagram and tiktok too. A quarter of a century on there still seems to be an appetite for it.

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    Mute Diarmuid Hunt
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    Jan 17th 2025, 8:15 PM

    @Gearoid MacEachaidh: It has grown exponentially since then. Many previous bubbles grew too fast, that’s why they burst.

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jan 18th 2025, 9:57 AM

    @Gearoid MacEachaidh: Not fair on GenX, we’re the original internet age… we were their at the start, we built the chatroom, forum culture. Would agree tho, a real job is one that pays you real money, simple as that.

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    Mute Andrew Kenny
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:29 PM

    Great news if this happens. It’d be great if the same happened here.

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    Mute Karen Marten
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:13 PM

    Should be banned here too

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    Mute Shane O Mac
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    Jan 17th 2025, 6:47 PM

    Time is def ticking, tick tock….

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    Mute William Jennings
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    Jan 18th 2025, 4:00 AM

    Biden had a chance to do one good thing before he left office on January 20th, but he couldn’t even do that. He signed the bill that banned TikTok, why couldn’t he just enforce the ban that he signed now that the Supreme Court has officially signed off and blocks the appeal? It’s a pretty disappointing image of weakness that Trump is projecting by opposing the ban on the app as well, despite the overwhelming evidence that TikTok not only spies on Americans, but deliberately pushes pro-CCP and anti-West propaganda onto users. Hopefully someone talks sense into Trump. Rescinding the invitation to the CEO of TikTok to attend his second inauguration would be a start, but I won’t get my hopes up about such a move happening.

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 17th 2025, 7:45 PM

    It won’t be banned. Biden has said that he won’t close it on Sunday and will leave it up to the next administration to do it. Trump has invited the CEO of tiktok to his inauguration. Not Trump likes more than compliments, so if he says nice things about Don the Con tiktok will continue as is

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    Mute Martin Ridge
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    Jan 17th 2025, 5:13 PM

    Oh what will they do

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