@Patrick J. O’Rourke: the Brits drew a line on our island. They did that; not Ireland and/or the EU

@Patrick J. O’Rourke: actually it wouldn’t. The EERG (Mog’s guys) are proposing a trade border in “the Celtic sea” (their exact words) between Ireland and France. Their economists have done several interviews about it on Euronews and France 24. They never dare to say it on the BBC or RTE.

@Joe Phillips: I thought that too originally, but according to Joe.ie it was Andrew Maxwell

@Dermot Lane: fair enough… I don’t really care enough to do Fact Check. Maybe the Journal will take it on

@Joe Phillips: ah no, sure if it’s on Joe.ie it must be true. No need for a fact check

@Dermot Lane: It was Andrew Maxwell, I actually heard him say it. ( News Quiz BBC Radio 4)

@Patrick J. O’Rourke: you kidding? the Birts want to stop immigration -that’s what its all about. They dont want borders for trade bu they do for people.

@Joe Phillips: Nah, it was Andrew, heard the show myself.

@Patrick J. O’Rourke: the UK will have to put up a BORDER if they join the WTO organisation- thats is one of the tenets of WTO

@willie mullin: No it’s not and no they don’t.

@Patrick J. O’Rourke: Rubbish. This is the EU backing as they promised.
You must find that really irritating.
Happy Friday.

@Dermot Lane: No, it’s about the EU border. The Brits don’t have to put up a border if they dont want to, but that shouldn’t stop Europe.

@Joseph Dempsey: Will you feel better if at the next summit they arrive by bus with smiling strictly forbidden?

@Dr Richard DeWitt: its probably unlikely that Joseph Dempsey that he was watching a brussels meeting and suddenly realised that it’s all ‘disgusting’ , much more likely that he harbours plenty of anti EU sentiment and is just using these brexit articles to get the good whine in…all democratic politics comes with politicians in suits doing their thing – the economic benefits and prevention of wide spread european wars were the reason and real benefits of the EU. Sure it can improve but keep it real ffs.

@Joseph Dempsey: what an unsuspicious comment. Definitely not strange that it had 70 odd upvotes inside 10 minutes and only picked up 10 or so more in the following 30 mins. Definitely not suspicious and is simply reflective of the EU skepticism which Ireland is renowned for, being the 3rd most pro EU of all nations…..

What’s the weather like in St Petersburg this morning?

@Joseph Dempsey: “disgusting spectacle” to say the least….the EU is a dictatorship led by the powerhouse of Europe that is Germany….our fore fathers must be spinning in their graves in what our traitor politicians have done to this country……its shameful, the people in this country better start wakening up soon.

@Ciarán Ó Fallúin: prepare for innocuous comments of yours to be suspiciously deleted as a result of a flood of reports being sent to the Journal.

@Joseph Dempsey: You need to read more informative material about the EU, what its objectives are and how it works.
You cite EU treatment of Greece as an example of EU malfunction.
The EU is based on trust, Greece broke that trust by cooking the books to join the Euro and that combined with the Greek Governments failure to collect taxes due, lavish spending etc is the cause of Greek misfortune.
Greece was lucky that they were not expelled from both the EU and the Euro.

As for Italy, the most corrupt country in the EU, they have been milking the EU from the start.
They should be warned to really get their act together.
Italies misuse of EU funds is an outrage, with all the money they have recieved they should be net contributers but they still get more out of the EU than they put in.

@Kevin Barry: Not true. Italy is one of nine net contributors to the EU budget and has been a net contributor to the EEC/ EU since 1985. Since its accession to the EU the country has paid to the European Union €113101 million over what it has received

@Kevin Barry: well well, if it isn’t the sanctimonious Kevin Barry. They couldn’t kick out Greece or Italy or the whole house of cards would fall down. Let’s wait and see how much you support Ireland over Brussels when the corporation tax is in firing sight. After all why should Ireland have this advantage over other EU countries, if we are all part of the same happy family?

@Dave Hammond: so lets get this straight, you think the extravagance shown by the EU suits “doing their thing” is necessary?

@Joseph Dempsey:

Unlike Britain, which spends hundreds of millions on royalty living in luxuryand warboats, while their education, housing estates and NHS goes to crap.

You haven’t been watching the news the past two years.

EU is booming, Brexit Britain is the basket case.

(unless you’re delusional loyalist – then you’re right Joey

@Brian Smith: Well Brian, we obtained an exemption for tax autonomy in either Maastricht or Lisbon, I forget which, remember the treaties that Farage and co claimed we were forced to vote on twice. Tax autonomy
was one of the changes made before the second vote.

@JimmyMc: Too long to try to reply to in a comment, but you can Google Italy’s scams with EU funds and you will get enough reading material for a month.

@Ciarán Ó Fallúin: IF {‘EU=bad’, RUN: ‘Russian.bot.exe’}

@Kevin Barry: I did not infact comment on the EU’s treatment of Greece but merely pointed out, it’s a financial disaster, but seen as you raise the point, what exactly has the EU’s treatment actually achieved? Nothing short of a kicking down of the can, both Greece and Italy are on a financial cliff edge, it could be argued their membership of the EU has not helped

@Joseph Dempsey: How should they behave? UFC rules? Better they get along, economies thrive, peace rules. It’s not perfect..but I think you’d grumble in heaven

@Joseph Dempsey: The EU has helped Greece to begin the process of stabilisation, they have a long hard road ahead of them but without EU support and bullying them if you like, they would have gone down the of Zimbabwe.

As long as I can remember Italy’s central government has been a basket case. The government is barley able to govern due to the power of regional parliaments. The only people who can do something about that are the Italians themselves.
The Italians themselves know the value of the EU and support for the EU is high in Italy, all the EU can do is to put pressure on them to better control their banks.

@Brian Smith: Ah poor sensitive Brian, still butthurt for being pulled for posting inaccurate statements

@Kevin Barry: Not true, European Council of Foreign Relations found that Italy has grown more detached from the bloc than any other EU member. http://www.politico.eu
Further, perhaps you missed the last Italian election where 60% of the Italian electorate voted for anti EU parties who have now run the country.

@PaddyOverABarrel: lol

@Brian Smith: “After all why should Ireland have this advantage over other EU countries, if we are all part of the same happy family?”

Because Ireland was given tax autonomy as one of the changes (sweeteners) of the Lisbon MK 2 referendum if it was a YES result. That could only be rescinded or removed with another Irish referendum. I doubt the people in Ireland would commit financial suicide.

@Joseph Dempsey: Greece’s elites were fiscally irresponsible and the EU are right to economically waterboard them and keep them in a Great Depression for the rest of their existence, drive all the youth out of the country, make the ones left live off the pensions of the old which will be reduced to nothing anyway, drive suicides through the roof, reduce GDP by 25% etc. etc. That will teach their elites fiscal responsibility and the general population that the EU is good for them.

@Kevin Barry: A recent poll in Iraly showed only 44% in favour of the EU. The rest are not all in favour of leaving but it does show like in many other countries a growing swell against what the EU has become and the policies it has pushed.
I

@White Rabbit: It would be hilarious if they arrived on the Leave Bus.

@Joseph Dempsey: does that mean that you would prefer to see the EU telling Ireland : fend for yourself because you are so small that your economy and your people are without interest for us ??? Thank the EU for the constant support it gave to Ireland since this Brexit referendum

@Paul Fahey: Enlighten us all with your solution

@Paul Fahey: Either the UK agrees to regulatory alignment with the EU, or there must be customs controls. That requires a considerably less porous border than what is currently there.

@Derek Walsh Ⓥ: Spot on. Brexit, by its current definition, requires the exit of the UK from the Customs Union, therefore a border. If Brexit means the UK stays in the CU, then it’s not going to pass muster as Brexit. Therefore, unless someone radically redefines things, you cannot have Brexit without the necessity for a border on the island.

@MickNev: very dangerous, the EU would want to have a good long think about what it may mean if they throw us under the bus again.

@MickNev: Plot-twist, Ireland is the EU!

@MickNev: why are you talking about the EU as a third party?

@MickNev: the anti eu groups did not worm their way in anywhere. The. are the result of an increasingly anti democratic eu. To describe these people as worming their way in only serves to reinforce the belief that unless you blindly follow without question you are somehow less than people like yourself.

@MickNev: I don’t think so. All 27 are watching to see if we will be supported until the end. If we are thrown under the bus then who might be next? The EU would unravel very quickly then and vested interests won’t allow that.

@MickNev: We can’t be hung out to dry unless Varadkar is complicit in allowing it.

@Stephen Devlin: Because they are, did they share the debt burden from unsecured bonds did they share our austerity, they did not they funneled loads of money our way more than we could handle then we went bust and the EU loaned us the money to pay the EU back…

@deise: ok

@Frankie Mangan: I certainly don’t blindly follow, im well aware of what they are capable of… I speak about the eu out groups like that because we are a tiny nation with little buying power that could not have built half the infrastructure we have in this country without them, see the motorways for example then we have all the businesses here because we are in the EU, should we leave we would struggle , many many jobs would be lost and prices would go up…
Im not a big supporter of the EU myself but I know if we leave we are in big trouble , we are stuck… UK is 5th biggest economy in the world and they are going to suffer can you imagine what that would mean for a nation our size… Again this is just my opinion & I don’t want to shove my view down other people throats but leaving the EU would be a disaster for Ireland… imo

@ted hagan: He will do as he is told just like Lenihan, who didnt want to take the unsecured bond debt, when you have 26 other finance ministers saying you must take it or else… Leo will do what Brian did and dance to their tune…

@SFLoonies: If they repeat the first answer, at least nobody can say they were duped into believing a load of false promises. As it is… a lot of people are saying that.

@Dr Richard DeWitt: If Brexit proceeds, there will be rebellion on the streets. The average person in the UK was (and still is) completely unaware of the consequences of Brexit, deal or no deal. What happens to food, medical, energy imports after March 29th 2019? Exports, annihilation. Planning a holiday in Spain after March 29th, eh, think again.

@Joe Phillips: Or just give a vote to the North on where they want the boarder

@Paul Fahey: So Paul, what happens to food, medical, energy imports into the UK after March 29th 2019? What happens UK exports?

@Declan Fitzsimons: Nah, they are too conformist to have a proper rebellion, remember Thatcher and the miners, massive demonstrations by the miners but easily slapped down.
Their motto is “Keep Calm and carry on as normal”

@Dr Richard DeWitt: Nobody was bullied into changing their minds, Ireland got derogations to Lisbon

@Damocles: I had a look for better figures. Unfortunately it can all vary massively based on the exchange rate when the figures were taken. I’m taking the lazy option and just choosing today’s 1.12-1.00. in 2016 britain imported €41 billion of European food (30 ish precent of immorts) of that in 2017 €4.5 was Irish exports (let’s round it down to an easy 10% of EU imports) so we end up being 4% or British food imports. Unfortunately your figure makes no sense to me. It is only showing 2012 fresh fruit and veg imports and export excluding meats, grains and processed foods. Ireland isn’t known for its mandarin production, we are more into beef, beer and processed foods exporting market.

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: links are handy at this point. Do you have any?

@Damocles: figures on British food imports and EU percentage. Unfortunatly not a hugely user friendy document https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/129/12904.htm#_idTextAnchor005 and Irish export value was found here https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/brexit-food-and-drink-exports-still-heavily-reliant-on-uk-1.3350661

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: If I come across a more condensed article with the important point highlighted from the first house of lords link I will post it.

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: your first link simply reinforces the point that the UK imports 30% from the EU.

Your second link just suggests that Ireland is reliant on the UK. Not that the UK is reliant on Ireland.

Ireland needs access to the UK market, but if that’s closed off then the UK retains that which would have been exported to Ireland (because both countries export to eachother) and gets the shortfall from somewhere else, because the UK can now make deals outside the EU.

At this point what do Irish exporters do with that beef?

@Damocles: I was not saying your central point about Irish exports to the UK being a low amount was wrong I was firstly trying to figure out the percentage at about 4% and secondly trying to find evidence either way for your claim (in this case supporting it) as the 2012 fresh fruit and veg import and export link you provided was of little use.

@Damocles:

I take it Damocles knows Britain won’t be able to access the EU either?

Enjoy your famine.

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: so the UK is not, per Dermot’s initial contention, reliant on Ireland. In terms of beef alone the UK imports about 25% of its needs, substantially from Ireland. If, post Brexit, the UK is unable to import from Ireland, this leaves Ireland in a much worse off position than the UK.

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: although it is apparently necessary to point out that the lack of a trade agreement does not mean that there will be trade sanctions or a blockade of the UK.

It’s only the true mini brains who are actually trying to suggest there would be.

@Damocles: And that 25% accounts for 50% of Irish beef exports. This all assumes we have almost no beef trade in the event of a hard brexit. A possible scenario if they go the cheap food flood route. Our beef industry is in a lot of trouble though there are some caviets to that. 90% of UK beef exports go to the EU and we can absorb just about all of that as our breed and beef cuts are the same just cheaper. Now this is about 400 million. It only accounts up to 20% of our 50% lost UK beef exports. We are going to have to find a market for 30% of our beef and their is no where really for it to go. Thankfully we have the CAP payments to help the industry through changing its focus to dairy and other products or destocking by 30%.

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: have a link but it won’t post for some reason

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: UK figures mostly from this: https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/what-might-brexit-mean-for-uk-trade-in-beef-and-lamb-products-17-january-2017

@Damocles: Indeed. Why all this talk of closed borders, disappearing trade and beef mountains?

Here’s what happens in no deal:
- WTO tariffs make Irish beef much more expensive in the UK
- The demand for Irish beef reduces significantly
- The remaining EU market for Irish beef sees oversupply
- The price of Irish beef shoots down
- But the demand for UK beef in the UK increases
- The price of UK beef in the UK starts to increase,
- The difference in price between Irish beef and UK beef reduces
- The market for Irish beef in the UK picks up gradually, but can’t recover without a trade deal
- Several Irish beef producers go out of business
- The UK decides between regulatory alignment with EU, or south american beef. New trade deal clobbers British beef industry.

Winners:
- Short term: UK beef industry, Irish beef consumers
Losers:
- Short term: Irish beef industry, British beef consumers
- Medium term: Irish beef industry,
- Long term: British beef industry

This will affect the Irish beef industry sharply. Prices are already low in 5 year terms.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The border is being used as a negotiating anchor by all sides.

In the end, lots of people lose. The UK will lose overall economically, but it’s laughable to suggest that Irish agribusiness can withstand protracted trade negotiations – it will be the first to feel the brunt of a no-deal Brexit as it’s impact will be felt in a single season.

@Rónán O’Suilleabháin: I’m not disagreeing with you.

I’m disagreeing with the contention that the UK is reliant on Ireland.

@Paul: At the time of the Brexit vote our exports to UK was 18% of our total exports.
That percentage has now dropped to less than 10%, impossible to be more accurate that as bad weather in the first three months has skewed the figures.
We import some 22 billion from the UK and export 11.5 billion to the UK, we are the only EU country that the UK has a trade surplus with.,
I cannot understand why you think we will have a famine, we are a net exporter of food and have a massive food surplus.

@Rónán O’Suilleabháin: The Ireland/China beef deal is just starting to kick in, while this deal is for cheaper cuts , thanks to Trumps tariffs a market for steaks in particular is opening up in China.

@Larry Ryan: Thank you for the correction. I’m actually really glad to hear that. So it’s all about getting the ball rolling on them then.

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: UK figures mostly from this excellent document https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/what-might-brexit-mean-for-uk-trade-in-beef-and-lamb-products-17-january-2017

@Edmund John Thomas Murphy: wrong place woops