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DEMOCRATS IN THE United States were able to breathe a collective sigh of relief after so-called “off-year” elections around the country this past Tuesday. Generally, it was a successful night that offered some cause for optimism ahead of upcoming presidential and congressional campaigns, as well as vital contests at state and local levels.
For instance, the Democratic Governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, was seen as vulnerable to the challenge of the state’s Republican Attorney General, Daniel Cameron. Donald Trump crushed his opponents there in 2016 and 2020. He rowed in behind Cameron, a deeply conservative African American. Yet Beshear cruised to a relatively easy triumph.
In Virginia, Democrats took control of both houses of the state legislature, notwithstanding a concerted GOP effort led by well-liked Governor Glenn Youngkin to flip seats in order to push a right-wing agenda. And in Ohio, which has morphed into a red state, 56% of voters opted to enshrine the right to access abortion in the state’s constitution.
One truth can be gleaned from these results: post the Dobbs case nullifying the seminal Roe v Wade precedent, abortion is a potent motivating consideration not only for progressives but also for many moderates, who regard total bans as draconian.
In battleground territory, Republicans had been able to use the hottest of all hot button issues to their advantage by pointing to Democrats’ typical refusal to identify a single restriction on the procedure they could endorse. Now, they are on the back foot, and at odds with the clear majority, when called upon to defend proposals that would only allow abortion in a small window and lack exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother.
Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, was buoyed by the outcome. She claimed that it was further evidence that the people “overwhelmingly side with President Biden and Democrats’ vision for this country.
The same choice will be before voters again next November, and we are confident the American people will send President Biden and Vice President Harris back to the White House to keep working for them.”
If they do give Joe Biden and Kamala Harris a second term, that pick may rest upon their support for at least some access to abortion or revulsion at the thought of Donald Trump getting a second stint as commander-in-chief, freed from any political constraints whatsoever. For recent data indicates that the incumbent does not inspire confidence in the electorate.
An NBC News survey shows that nearly half of those asked favour Republicans to handle economic issues; just 28% think Democrats would do a better job. 59% of that cohort are very critical of President Biden’s economic track record. A contemporaneous New York Times/Siena College poll signals prevalent negativity on the economy. 81% say it is either fair or poor; merely 19% say it is good or excellent. 57% contend that the economy will be the most important factor when they cast ballots in 2024.
More troubling, still, 71% of New York Times/Siena College respondents opine that Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president and 62% think he is not mentally sharp enough to do the job. Despite plenty of slip-ups as of late, only 38% deem Donald Trump too old and 54% assert that he remains mentally sharp.
The NBC News and New York Times/Siena College numbers correlate strongly with the standing of the two men in crucial states. Biden trails Trump by 10 percentage points in Nevada, by 6 in Georgia, by 5 in Arizona, by 5 in Michigan and by 4 in Pennsylvania. If this forecast came to pass, Trump would prevail, comfortably.
Some Democratic strategists have been dismissive. They have posited that it is much too early in the process to be asking voters about whom they will back, that overreacting to what they would describe as a blurry snap shot is foolhardy, that the polls demonstrate the devastating impact a criminal conviction could have on presumptive Republican nominee Trump’s candidacy and that other sitting presidents have been in far worse position and gone on to win.
Their statements minimising the implication of the findings ring hollow, however. In fact, Democrats have fretted privately for many months that President Biden’s advanced age and his concomitant physical and mental decline would pose a significant problem. How he was able, nonetheless, to stave off would be insurgents is equally a mystery and an indictment of the party’s inner workings.
The New York Times/Siena College analysis reveals that an unnamed, generic Democrat would beat Trump in all of the aforementioned states and hence win the presidency. Conversely, a Biden victory could be largely dependent upon Trump’s being convicted in federal or state courts in Washington, DC, Florida, New York or Georgia.
Yes, previous incumbents have reversed their fortunes in the face of low approval numbers and broad discontent with harsh economic conditions. That said, they were not simultaneously combatting inescapably negative, popularly held conclusions with respect to immutable, individual characteristics as President Biden is.
Indeed, one poll does not warrant panic. Its shockwaves, though, reverberate in a subsequent Emerson College questionnaire likewise reflecting the reality that Biden is in bother in the locations that matter most in US presidential races.
Much has been made of the tacit ultimatum delivered by President Barack Obama’s erstwhile chief adviser, David Axelrod, on Twitter/X. “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2023
The quandary for Axelrod and worried fellow Democrats is that, in all probability, what’s done is done. President Biden is not for turning. Even if he were, it does not appear a viable option.
Given the impending deadlines to get onto primary ballots and the practical difficulties of setting up fundraising and other key operations, it would be a straight uphill struggle for Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer to mount a last minute bid.
My suspicion is that countless Democrats are wistfully conjuring up a scenario in which, months ago, Joe Biden had announced that, having vanquished a president his country needed to be rid of and restored dignity to the highest office in the land, he would step aside for a new generation. The 46th President of the United States would have been widely lauded as a genuine patriot. He certainly would have occupied an eminent place in the annals of American history.
Musings as to what might have been aside, one year is an eternity in politics. To put a different spin on Donald Rumsfeld’s maxim, it is full of unknown unknowns. It bears repeating that Joe Biden is a thoroughly decent human being. He has been a good president. His detractors have always underestimated the man. They may be doing so now.
But at this juncture, it seems that the best those terrified at the prospect of an increasingly unhinged Donald Trump once again becoming the leader of the free world can hope for is that the long arm of the law will take him down and that President Biden will benefit decisively as a consequence.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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Which says more about Biden than it does about Trump.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: actually says more about how dumb Americans are than anything else, that they’d re-elect the Grifter In Chief…
@Sea Point: It’s hardly the American public’s fault that they seemingly have only a choice between Biden and Trump in the elections. Things could change by then of course.
@Con Rafferty: simple reason for that. It’s because only FF and FG have ever run the numbers needed in an election to form a government. Can you tell me one election in the last 50 years a party other than FF and FG ran enough candidates to win the majority of 81 seats needed to form a government?. Any party that run’s less than 81 candidates has no interest in being the leader of government.
@Sea Point: America was on a financially more powerful position under trump and took American troops out of war stricken countries and the world was safer- I know the media are against trump but under what metric was Biden doing a better job??
@Shane Doyle: HAHAHAHAHAHA that’s thr dumbest comment on here in a while… aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahaha thanks for the laugh. You’re utterly clueless about the US economy under Biden never mind Trump.
@Jimmy Wallace: have you data to back that opinion
@Shane Doyle: Absolute twaddle! Trump gets a free ride from the media.
@Sea Point: what a choice. 350 million people in America and these are the only two muppets deemed fit enough to lead them?
@Sea Point: Americans are dumb because almost 50% of the voting electorate in a nation you don’t inhabit vote for somebody you disagree with. Interesting.
@Shane Doyle: Every part of that is incorrect.
Trump inherited a booming economy from Obama.
And crashed it.
he added $7.8 trillion to the US national debt.
He negotiated the surrender of the US to the Taliban, and did so without any involvement of the afghan government, effectively handing the future government of Afghanistan to that Taliban.
He released Taliban fighters from prison, those same fighters that went on to overthrow the government.
he agreed the timeline for the US withdrawal, not giving US forces enough time to create a plan for an orderly withdrawal.
Biden’s economy is the most successful since the war.
But, beliefs trump facts, eh?
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: 40 year high inflation during Bidens first term. Google is your friend
@Sea Point: We are so much smarter than American s. Haughey, Bertie, that crook in Tipp Lowrey to name afew
Why do people hate Trump so much? Democrats are terrible, look at the wars and chaos. It morals? Because Joe and hunter are no great shakes neither was Bill Clinton, is it wars, trump is against them. I think it’s because Trump tells the truth and in today’s world of idiocy it is a painful subject, people are so angry and confused, acting on emotion. Trump is a barrier to some people ideology and the truth he brings about. I don’t see the problem with him and he seems to act on what ever he promised. Far more than the cohort we have here in Ireland, but what would I know
You’re not the fizziest can in the fridge
@Katie Beckett: how typical, your sarcasm and intellect really shines through with that response. I’m feeling more enlightened
Over 20,000 Trump lies had been documented and that’s a few years ago and you think he tells the truth
@eamon kelly: Eamonn what about Hillary emails, and not much inquiries there either…Double standards, but she’s a hero, not before any courts. He speaks reason and truth in the sense of conservative ideological doctrine.
You out done yourself with your last 5 words. Just not that bright.
It’s always WHAT ABOUT someone else. Please explain how you could trust DONALD TRUMP when he tells lies
@Jon Doesn’t: ok then, borders bad, men can enter women sports, men are women, bail for serious criminals, de fund the police, I’m a racist
I fixed it for you so I don’t sound so stupid
@eamon kelly: instead of reading the rubbish posted here, check out electoral-vote.com. Excellent US website dealing with the elections there.
@eamon kelly: I think the common denominator is that all politicians lie, and who is so naive to trust anyone? He just may be the best out of a brood of vipers, anyway it’s all out of our control whatever will be, will be.
If we accept politicians lying what does the future of society look like
@eamon kelly: looks pretty grim out there already.
@: they hate trump because he is a danger to democracy and the world. If he’s elected again, god forbid. He’s spelt out, in an interview on tv how he would use the DOJ to take down all political opponents in the future.
@eamon kelly: What do you mean if?
@: The guy that had over 30,000 documented lies during his single term in office somehow tells the truth in your mind?
What does that really tell us all about you, do you think?
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Name one lie?
@: He lied not only about the 1st day in office, he lied about the inauguration ceremony where he claimed that it didn’t rain.
It went on from there.
I mean why?
Why tell such a lie?
A lie that is so easy to disprove?
What purpose did it serve?
But just do a web search for ‘Trump lies in office’.
Trump to win
@Paddy C: dream on
@Willie Marty: we’ll see they’re not too happy with sleepy Joe lot of people fed up with him over there so see what happens.
Rampant inflation and an increasing level of international conflicts is a dark cloud on an otherwise uninspiring presidential tenure for Biden.
The more the left wing democrats prosecute him the more chance he can win next election, they would be better to leave him alone .
@Edward O’T.: Yeah that’s not what’s happening to Trump at all though…
Anyone would be better than genocide Joe
@Shaun Gallagher: no they wouldn’t. If trump gets in again he will be another mouselini. He has all the knowledge not wot destroy America and turn it into his own personal little fiefdom. And it will take another revolution to get rid of him. So yes, there is far worse than joe Biden. People have such short memories. Trump literally spelt out in an interview on tv how he would use the DOJ to take down anyone who would have the nerve to run against him in the future.
@colm o’leary: why not use his full quote Colm?
@Peter Murray: ok… right! And Hitler was just “misunderstood”……..
@mainmsam: who’s quote?
@colm o’leary: you “quoted” a comment from trump during an interview use the full quote
Larry, would you give over with the “leader of the free world” malarkey. It’s well past its sell buy date.
Can’t stand the guy, but there were no wars ( as big as these) happening when he was in power! May God forgive me!
@Colette Kearns: yes there was, and he was very active in them. He just passed legislation to stop it being publicised. This myth that he was an anti-war pacifist is laughable.
So they did and keep doing everything to keep Trump out and saying that he’s a horrible leader and human being. People liked hating on Trump so much they didn’t even care if Biden was going to be any better. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza are both sanctioned by Biden and his government.
@Save Rainforest: Putin (a great guy) is praying that Trump gets re elected. the likes of Putin and Xiping piss all over mo..ns like Trump
It is possible that history will judge Joe Biden harshly.
He had an opportunity to try to avert the war in Ukraine but failed to take it. And that war may well be another expensive failure for the USA.
Israel is thrashing its own reputation in the war in Gaza, and Biden is enabling them with political, financial and military support. That will do huge damage to America’s reputation for years to come.
Will Americans be in a better place at the end of Joe Biden’s presidency?
I don’t think so. A really bad few years for the USA!
@Nestor: actually joe Biden hasn’t given Israel one cent as for three weeks the republicans couldn’t elect a speaker and now that they have one he’s so out of his depth and crooked that he can’t get a bill together to bring to the house to pass it. They had one but it tacked on a ton of unrelated things that the democrats won’t vote for and they can’t pass because they aren’t a United group. And even if they do pass something it simply won’t get through the senate with those pieces tacked on. Joe Biden wanted to fund Israel and Ukraine and the federal government all in one vote but they haven’t been able to agree to that either!
No s H1t Sherlock. Trump has it in the bag.
@MTB Mayo: no Watson .Trump has it in the head.
Very upsetting times for Donnelly. It’s a double edged sword really. He makes so much out of blabbing on about Trump, he’s licking his lips at the the thoughts of Trump being in the public eye for another few years while on the other hand is disgusted that his beloved democrats have been revealed to be such a failure. Hang your head in shame Donnelly, you are part of the problem.
Biden supports the murder campaign by Israel in Gaza if I was in USA he wove getting my vote
@Fran Riley: wouldn’t be getting my vote
@Fran Riley: do you not think trump would do the same? The americans were in bed with Israel long before either of them were president.
@Fran Riley: He does support israel, which will be a terrible blot on his reputation in time to come.
But have you seen Trump’s position?
Trump would much closer to the Israeli genocide of the Palestinian.
@Fran Riley: everyone here seems to forget that Israel was just going about their business when Hamas attacked them in the most brutal way possible. Hamass wont let the people in Gaza leave because they want to use them as a human shield. What do you suggest Israel do? Leave horrors like children burned alive in front of their parents unanswered?
@colm o’leary: Israel was going about its business ok, the business of genocide, they were doing it long before hamas appeared.
I can’t see a situation where both of them survive the next 12 months without falling down a stairs, or groping someone on camera, or having a complete existential crises in Trumps case. Two men truly in the twilight of their lives. Anyone with any experience of this knows literally anything can happen.
No surprise there. He has shown an incredible level of weakness relating to the current situation in the Middle East.
Polls Don’t Vote…People Do!!!
Trump would win. And Biden would steal it.
@Timo: oh Please! The only one that tried to steal anything here was trump in 2020. And he was sloppy about it which is typical of the man who was mortified that he lost and wouldn’t accept it and he’s convinced his base that he won when all he did was dig himself deeper int trouble. Which is why he’s facing prosecution for it. So trump calls it a witch hunt I call it justice and if he had done nothing and conceded like a normal person then there wouldn’t be anything for the DOJ to charge him with. You don’t want to go to jail, don’t break the Law!!! Trump has been headed to jail for decades with him bending the law to his will here, there and everywhere. It was going to catch up with him. The man is a crook to his cor, plain and simple!
Be great if Trump ran and never came back.
Anyone really think these two are anything other than tools of the deep state? Coke and Pepsi
Larry clutching at straws & hoping a Trump conviction would scupper his chances of being re-elected.
First, the question shouldn’t even be asked in a poll as it is so prejudicial. Respondents know what answer the pollster wants & for such a question they will amend their answer.
It would be the same as asking if Biden & his family were convicted of taking bribes would that affect your vote.
Next, wasn’t the indictments supposed to scupper Trump’s election prodpects? He is facing 4 criminal/civil prosecutions with I think 74 indictments. Still it doesn’t matter. It hasn’t affected his popularity.
Finally, he has already been found ‘liable’ in the E. Jean Carroll case. As many commenters on this website like to point out he is a ‘convicted sex offender’.
The problem guys (& just because I’m saying something you don’t like it doesn’t mean I’m your ‘enemy’ or even the opposition) is that was a very obviously corrupt prosecution & no way should he have been found guilty. Now I know that so many on here hate Trump so much that they won’t accept that. But the Trump campaign doesn’t have to convince the majority of people who think he is worse than Hitler. He only needs 1-2% of ‘independents’ in 4/5 swing states to look into in & realise the prosecution/conviction was a miscarriage of justice. It doesn’t take much work – it very, very obviously was. Briefly, the changed the statute for 1year just to get Trump. The complainant E. Jean Carroll is very obviously crazy & was very obviously lying. There was no evidence to support her allegation (which was impossible). She couldn’t say when it happened, ie didn’t know the date, the week nor the year. The allegation was so vague timewise in case Trump was able to prove he was elsewhere at the time.
Despite having no evidence the jury still found him liable (I’m saying ‘liable’ instead of ‘guilty’ because IIRC it was a civil case).
That conviction taints all the other prosecutions.
It is easy for Trump to point at that wrongful prosecution/conviction & smear all the others with the same brush.
He doesn’t need to convince Larry. He doesn’t need to convince all the readers on this website.
He just needs circa 40k in 4-5 swing states to change their votes from Biden to Trump.
What a choice. 350 million people in America and these are only two muppets deemed fit enough to lead them.
@Dissasociated Follower: Perhaps the only two crazy enough to try.
biased journoz..
Are these the same polls that predicted Hillary would win in 2016?
@MICHAEL NYLAND: Hillary did win in 2016, except for one rogue member of the electoral college that voted for trump instead of Hillary and gave the presidency to Trump.
@colm o’leary: so she didn’t win Colm is what you’re saying. Their election process is different than ours. Trump was democratically elected fair and square
@mainmsam: trump was elected through a mistake of an archaic idea that was corrupted in trumps favour. What other country can a candidate get the most votes but not be elected in favour of the one that got less votes. The electoral college was a good idea when most Americans lived in cities because they were the only places that were relatively safe. America has moved on since 1776, their constitution needs reviewing.
@colm o’leary: any county that sets up its elections that way. He was democratically elected
2 of the worst candidates the US has ever had
It’s absolutely amazing that with close to 350 million people in the country, that these are the two mules in the grand national for choice
Republicans will vote for a turkey no matter what
Yesterday there was a politician shot in the face on a street in Spain, and this is what the journal choses to print…America is the leader of the free world nonsense!
For the author to blindly state Biden is the “decent human” belies the realisation that the incompetent presides over unprecedented genocide.
Absolute rubbish. In republican circles trump is polling about 49% yes and Biden is polling about 47% but you assuming the US is divided between Republicans and Democrats equally. In truth it’s about 1/3 Republican and 2/3 Democrats with the independents take off each share equally. So Biden would win the election. Not to mention that if trump is convicted, which he likely will be, he will loose 6% of those votes to Biden and then you need to take into account all the votes for RFK Junior which will come from trump ani vax voters, further reducing trumps lead. Not to mention the abortion issue, which is a massive thing in the US at the moment.
happy days, i’m on the don at 7-1, now 6-4 fav, i’ve aleady laid off some of my bets so all rosy in the garden.
How observant are you, too much American TV watched by you to ply ‘Original’ copy.
You have to stop rebooting CNN and FOX, we can all read the articles you recite, regurgitate, copy, but Hey ! if it pays then, why not.
Here’s a suggestion for you Larry….Head off back to The States and take your obsession with American politics with you.
Since the last presidential election there have been numerous other one-off (special) elections and referenda.
The US Democrats have outperformed in all.
US Republicans have lost every single referendum.
Despite the polls.
The recent polls show Trump and Biden neck-and-neck, or Trump marginally ahead.
There were a bunch of elections in the US over the past few days, and a major referendum in Ohio.
Democrats won them all.
There seems to be something rotten in the state of Pollland.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: how many presidents have been elected then have either or both the house and the senate be in the majority for the opposition
Biden is too old and Trump is too mad. We are doomed I tell you , ddooommmeed
They’re both too old and should retire from politics.
There should be an upper age limit – too many old men holding onto power until they croke.
Small hands, small nob.
Tells you everything you feared about ‘murica is true.
have your say