WELL, THAT WAS the quickest summer to ever come and go.

Just like the school kids, the politicians this week are paring their pencils and packing their lunch boxes in preparation for their return to Leinster House after the summer recess. 

With the Dáil set to return on Wednesday, TDs across the country should be feeling rested and ready to throw themselves into what is set to be a busy few weeks with the Budget and the possibility of an election looming close. 

Despite assurances from both the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste that the government will go full term (meaning an election will be held in February or March next year), almost everyone else in Leinster House – including the opposition, government backbenchers and political journalists – is preparing for a November election to be called. 

Whether that is the case or not remains to be seen, but for now here are some of the key things politicians will have on their radar as they get back to parliamentary business: 

Budget

All eyes are on Finance Minister Jack Chambers and Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe as we edge closer to this year’s Budget in two weeks’ time on October 1. 

For the last number of weeks government ministers have been approaching the pair with their wishlists, you would have read about some of the requests: 

The Greens want a €560 ‘baby boost’ for parents in the first month their child is born (a suggestion Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys has endorsed as a “good idea” by the way).

They also want free public transport for all children under nine. 

Meanwhile, Enterprise Minister Peter Burke has proposed a €750 tax credit for under 25s to stop them from emigrating. However, Chambers set out clearly what is on the cards for the average worker – €1,000 back in their pockets from tax breaks and cost-of-living payments. 

We will have to wait and see what requests get the approval, but we already have a pretty good sense of what to expect in this year’s package in general. 

Election 

While the Taoiseach says the public isn’t interested in when the next general election will be, those in political circles certainly are. As we head into this new Dáil term, it could well be a very short one, with speculation around a 15 November election date. 

The Department of Finance is at the ready to get the finance bill, which generally takes a few weeks to get through the Houses, to be completed the week after the 1 October announcement. 

Once the budget is out of the way, all eyes will be on the Simon Harris as to whether he will push the button and go for an early election. No one in any of the government parties wants the government to go full term, it would appear. The Taoiseach has said he can’t be any clearer, telling journalists at the Fine Gael think-in in Tullamore last week to ask the other coalition leaders the election question. 

Micheál Martin was asked at his party’s think-in in Killiney yesterday, and he was clear that his ideal date would be February 2025. Harris has pointed out that constitutionally, the decision lies with him. 

So, if and when an early election is called, it will be Harris who fires the starting gun. 

Bikeshed-gate

It was the (end of) summer story that dominated the headlines and the fallout will be carried into this new Dáil term. 

The decision-making process that led to €336,000 of public money being spent on a bike shed at Leinster House in Dublin is being investigated. 

With the Dáil not sitting, the opposition were limited in the fire and brimstone they could level at the government benches, so expect some fireworks on this one from the get go. 

The Journal understands that the matter will be discussed at the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee (PAC) on Thursday and that members will invite the Office of Public Works (OPW) officials in for a grilling. It’s been a while since such a matter provoked public anger to this extent – so bring the popcorn for this one. 

Hate Crime Bill 

Justice Minister Helen McEntee stated during the summer that she plans to progress the  long-mooted hate crime legislation in this term. 

The minister has said the proposed new laws will bolster existing legislation against hate speech by strengthening the legal recognition of hatred in the criminal justice system. 

The contentious bill has caused much debate, but McEntee has said she understands that people have “valid concerns about freedom of speech” and about “making sure that we’re not criminalising opinions”, which she has taken on board. 

Occupied Territories Bill 

With the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling in July of this year that Israel’s settlement policies in Palestinian territories are illegal under international law, pressure will mount on the government to explain, once again, why it will not enact the Occupied Territories Bill. 

The implementation of the Bill was dropped from the 2020 Programme for Government and senior Government figures have repeatedly said that trade with Israel is an issue that can only be addressed at the EU level.

Taoiseach Simon Harris said he received new legal advice from the current Attorney General in May. A renewed effort to push the bill forward is being mounted by a group of politicians, headed up by senator Frances Black, who spearheaded the original bill. 

This will come at a time when questions will be posed to Harris about whether Ireland is going far enough when it comes to taking action. 

Planning Bill 

Overhauling of the planning system is one of the government’s solutions to fixing the housing crisis. The Bill had 120 hours of debate at Committee Stage and was guillotined before the summer break. 

It will be back before the Houses, but if there is to be an early election, the pressure is on to get the bill over the line. 

The Bill, once enacted, will ensure greater clarity, certainty and consistency in our planning system. 

The big juicy Apple in the room

How are we going to spend all our newfound money? Following the decision from the European Union’s highest court that Apple must pay €13 billion to Ireland in unpaid taxes, that is one of the big questions politicians are going to have to grapple with this Dáil year, God help them.

It will be a number of months before the state receives access to the €14.1bn currently held in an escrow account, but you can guarantee suggestions on how best to spend it will never be far from the headlines in the interim.

Yesterday, Finance Minister Jack Chambers said a “general directive” for how the money will be spent will be set out by government soon, most likely shortly after the Budget.

He was as usual, keen to stress that the money will not be used for day-to-day spending.

Taoiseach Simon Harris has remained tight-lipped about what he would do with it other than to say it should be used on a mix of housing and infrastructure projects.

Most others have so far agreed that some version of this would be the best approach, with some politicians like Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín suggesting a share of the money should be kept to reduce our national debt too.

Yesterday, Sinn Féin threw another suggestion into the mix, pledging that it would use €1bn of the windfall (if in government) to fund investments in working-class communities that are still recovering from austerity.

This would include things like targeted capital investment in sports facilities, arts facilities, youth facilities and public spaces.

But don’t forget, all roads lead back to an election this term, so with the three government parties looking to differentiate themselves ahead of it, expect to see the Apple tax used as one of the ways they will do this.