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Sinn Féin candidate Cathleen Carney Boud canvassing in Dublin North West on Thursday. Ciara Ní Dhálaigh

This constituency had the biggest swing to Sinn Féin in 2020 - how will it vote now?

Housing is the top issue in Dublin North West, and Sinn Féin hopes it can turn people’s anger into votes.

A CHORUS OF ‘Come Out Ye Black and Tans’ was how veteran Sinn Féin politician Dessie Ellis and his supporters celebrated on 9 February 2020 after he topped the poll by a spectacular margin in Dublin North West.

Almost one in two voters in the suburban constituency had given Ellis their first preference vote.

Now though, nationally, Sinn Féin is polling several points behind where it stood in early 2020 (and several points behind Fine Gael and, though by a smaller margin, Fianna Fáil). Sinn Féin had a terrible local election, with just 12% of voters giving the party their number one.

Some voters who were among the 44% in Dublin North West to give Sinn Féin their first preference in 2020 told The Journal they won’t do so again on 29 November. 

However, there was a warm reception for Ellis’s running mate, Cathleen Carney Boud, on several doorsteps on Thursday evening, especially among voters for whom housing and homelessness are top concerns – and it was clear there are plenty of those.

Carney Boud and her team were quietly confident that the party is bouncing back from the disastrous locals – maybe not to 2020 levels of support, but certainly to a point where there is a lot for Sinn Féin to play for in the remaining two weeks of campaigning.

Housing and immigration

Spanning suburbs mostly built in the 1950s and 1960s, Dublin North West is a mix of working and middle-class communities across Finglas, Ballymun, Whitehall, Beaumont and Santry, as well as parts of Glasnevin.

The slate of candidates in the three-seater includes sitting TD Paul McAuliffe of Fianna Fáil and former TD Noel Rock, who hopes to break back in for Fine Gael as part of a ‘Harris hop’ in the capital. Rory Hearne of the Social Democrats will try to retain Róisín Shortall’s long held seat for his party as she retires.

Two sitting councillors, anti-immigration Independent Gavin Pepper and Conor Reddy of People Before Profit (the last candidate eliminated in 2020, when he benefited from Ellis’s surplus), are also running. On Newstalk this week, broadcaster and former TD Ivan Yates called it for Ellis, McAuliffe and Reddy.

All the candidates running here and across the country are in The Journal’s candidate database. 

Waiting lists for healthcare on the public system and the hoops people must jump through to obtain state assistance such as carers’ allowance were among the issues raised by voters when The Journal visited the constituency this week to take the temperature. 

Recent scandals surrounding Sinn Féin – such as former Belfast press officer Michael McMonagle being jailed for nine months for child sex offences, or former Senator Niall Ó Donnaghaile being revealed as having sent inappropriate texts to a teenager - have not cut through with voters.

Rather, bread and butter issues are to the fore as the election approaches.

Housing and homelessness were undoubtedly the issues raised most often by voters, young and old.

A much smaller proportion of voters expressed frustration at immigration, in particular of young men, into Ireland and into their area; some of these voters planned to vote for Sinn Féin and some didn’t.

For some, immigration and housing are linked as issues, with inward migration perceived as exacerbating the scarcity of homes. Some people expressed the view that not enough has been done to help homeless Irish people. 

Among those who voted Sinn Féin last time but are not planning to do so now, there was also a more generalised sense of disaffection and disillusion with the political establishment – and a perception that Sinn Féin is part of it.

“They’re all the same,” was a sentiment raised again and again.

This is a problem for Sinn Féin.

It was notable that Carney Boud’s key message on the doorsteps, repeated with great frequency, was: “We’re not in government.” 

Sometimes she said this unprompted, and sometimes she said it after listening to the issues people raised, such as inadequate support for people with additional needs and their carers.

One woman, who struggled to find a school place for her son, asked Carney Boud what Mary Lou was doing.

“She’s not in government,” Carney Boud said. “We haven’t been given a chance to put in our plan.”

But the woman felt that, “at the end of the day, you’re all the same”.

After a back and forth, with Carney Boud explaining that Sinn Féin TDs do not hold power, the woman conceded she might “give Dessie the number one – ah I’m only joking”.

Carney Boud received a couple of hard ‘no’s on the doorsteps, but these were outnumbered by those who were keeping their cards close to their chests, and by several firm promises of a first preference vote.

One woman broke down in tears as she told Carney Boud of spending almost 20 years on the housing list and struggling to get a permanent home for her children. 

An older voter proved a tougher customer, however, asking Carney Boud straight off the bat: “Where are you going to get this €39bn to build all these houses?” 

“The issue is not money, the issue is political will. There’s plenty of money in the country,” Carney Boud replied, adding that housing, once built, is a “once off measure” and Sinn Féin’s plans are “costed”.

“I’m just a bit sceptical about all of that, to be honest with you, because you’ve got to have the budget for the day-to-day running of the country as well,” the man responded.

Sinn Féin not being in government presents it with a twofold problem. While some voters perceive the party as being an ineffective section of the establishment, because it has many elected TDs, others, including this man, expressed nervousness about a Sinn Féin government given it has no experience of power this side of the border.

IMG_4143 Election posters outside a derelict pub in Finglas village. The Journal The Journal

Talking to voters

When The Journal took to the streets in Dublin North West to speak to voters face to face, only a tiny minority indicated they don’t generally vote and don’t plan to this time. Most people were engaged and informed. 

At the Omni shopping centre in Santry, Tara Curtis, a young woman from Ballymun, said Sinn Féin’s proposal to cut USC on the first €45,000 of income would be important for working class people. She said she needs to do more research but is leaning towards voting for Sinn Féin.

A young couple, Jennifer McKeown and Martin Cassin, said they plan to vote for Sinn Féin, with housing the issue uppermost in their minds. They live in a HAP property and expect to remain there, though they both have good jobs, while covering creche fees as well is “a nightmare”.

“It’s time for a change,” Cassin said.

Housing is an issue that evokes anger and frustration among the older generation too.

In Finglas Village, Ellis’s constituency office is directly below a large former office block, Raven House, which is currently being redeveloped as 37 apartments.

Looking at the scaffolding from the nearby taxi rank, taxi driver Derek Russell predicted: “It’ll be owned by vulture funds and pension funds, so you can’t buy apartments, you have to rent.”

He said that while 20% of the scheme would probably be reserved for social housing, people would have to be already in receipt of housing assistance payment (HAP) to access it, and it was “just horrible” for young people to have to go through that. He added that it was much too difficult for young people to get a mortgage.

Russell voted for Sinn Féin last time but doesn’t plan to do so this time. He doesn’t think that Sinn Féin in government would be very different to the current administration.

“When they get into government they’ll do the same as every other politician and say: ‘Oh we can’t do this, we can’t do that. What we said we would do, we can’t',” he said.

A few people indicated they will probably vote for Fianna Fáil; while some described themselves as lifelong supporters of the party, others were coming back after voting for Sinn Féin in 2020.

Threat from Independents

In the local elections, many people who wanted to turn away from the parties of government opted for Independents rather than Sinn Féin. As poor results rolled in from across the country on 9 June, party leader Mary Lou McDonald noted “frustration” and “anger” with government had translated into votes for Independents.

Talking to voters in Finglas village last week, it was clear that this remains a risk to the party’s support.

Denise Kearney, who voted Sinn Féin last time, said she won’t vote for them or indeed any of the larger parties this time, and instead plans to vote Independent. 

“I felt we needed change, and that’s what they [Sinn Féin] pushed – they pushed for change. Their ideologies lately, they seem to be cornered against the Irish people,” she said.

Pat Lynch voted for anti-immigration candidate Independent Gavin Pepper in the local elections and will vote for him again in the general election. Pepper was elected to Dublin City Council in the Ballymun-Finglas ward in June.

Lynch said he works long hours and has to pay his own medical bills, whereas people are “coming in off the boat and given medical cards – that’s why I’m going Independent”.

He said when Sinn Féin knocked on his door in recent days he “ran them”.

Carney Boud said both she and Ellis are not hearing as much about immigration from voters as they did in the local elections. 

“It’s calmed down. I think people are listening more and not jumping to conclusions with all the social media stuff that was rampant several months ago,” she said.

Disappointment in 2020 

Sinn Féin enjoyed an 11-point swing nationally in 2020 relative to the previous general election in 2016 – but even by this standard the party’s performance in Dublin North West was outstanding, with a 23.9 point surge.

This was the biggest swing to Sinn Féin nationally, but there was disappointment for the party here as elsewhere.

sinn fein 993_90591389 Dessie Ellis (fifth from left), Cathleen Carney Boud (green coat) and supporters celebrate his election in February 2020. RollingNews.ie RollingNews.ie

Had the party given Ellis a running mate, he or she could have taken a second seat. Ellis’s first preferences alone represented almost 1.8 quotas.

There were three other Dublin constituencies with a swing of over 20 points to Sinn Féin, but the party only ran a second candidate and took a second seat in one of them, Dublin Mid-West.

In constituencies including Dublin South-West, Waterford and Mary Lou McDonald’s Dublin Central the party squandered huge first preference votes, and a shot at government, with its conservative strategy.

It will be hoping it can turn public anger and frustration at the housing crisis into enough votes this time to give it a another chance. 

Carney Boud acknowledged that the party has not been doing as well as it was in opinion polls, but said that even if Sinn Féin were being “cautious” in Dublin North West, “you would probably still run two here”.

“We’re quite positive with the feedback in the last week, so we’ll see how it goes,” she said. “A week is a long time in politics. You never know what comes around the corner.”

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61 Comments
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    Mute Ciaran
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:25 AM

    Not a fan of SF but I can understand why people would vote for them,
    What baffles me is how FF still have that amount of support!

    323
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    Mute jane
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:35 AM

    I can’t.

    114
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    Mute richard fennessy
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:04 AM

    Have to agree ciaran scariest things about these polls is 1 in 5 would vote Fianna Fáil but sure didn’t mammy daddy and grandad

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    Mute Mick Hannigan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:23 AM

    What baffles me is not one person I know or have talked to is voting FF FG or L, yet the poles come out with FG on top all the time, the poles they are doing must be on hand picked idiots

    186
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    Mute Darragh O'Connell
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:38 AM

    Lay off the poles Mick

    86
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    Mute Tom Kelly
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:40 AM

    Mick, I’m not a FG supporter but you calling them idiots may just answer your own question.

    73
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    Mute Old Gabby Johnson
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:44 AM

    @Mick what have you got against the Poles Mick – great workers, fantastic women and all round nice people?

    55
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    Mute JJ O Riordan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:45 AM

    Why would people vote for them Ciaran? I’m baffled. Terrorism, abuse cover ups, in fighting and denial of all of the above. Not to mention promises that can only be delivered with use of a magic wand. How could anyone vote for that?

    64
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    Mute Mick Hannigan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:52 AM

    Lol predicted text keeps putting poles in on mobile,

    61
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    Mute Charles Coughlan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:57 AM

    What baffles me is how FF/FG still have that amount of support!

    96
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    Mute Stephen Devlin
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:05 AM

    Promises?? Never heard of them things before..

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    Mute Mark O'Connor
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:01 AM

    @Mick, it really depends who you’re talking to… Most the people I know would never vote for a socialist party. So they’re going to be more likely to vote for FG or FF depending on which one is showing more promise at the time.

    23
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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:12 AM

    A vote for SF is a vote for the IRA Army Council to run things

    41
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    Mute John Quinn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:04 AM

    re Charles Coughlan . Most people are stupid, ill-informed, dislike change and are very conservative.

    20
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    Mute Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:45 AM

    Mick, you must mainly be associating with AAA/PBP/SF lefty loony types then.
    Maybe try mixing with normal people, mmmkay??

    18
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    Mute Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:46 AM

    Mark socialism is a cancer on society.

    14
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    Mute Damian Moran
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:00 PM

    They may end up the biggest party but !!!
    They will be a lot smaller than they are now.
    Just a different spin.

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    Mute Paul Mc
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:26 AM

    If you repeat a lie often enough people will start believing it.

    226
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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:04 AM

    Like the one that Gerry Adams was never a member of the IRA?

    No one believes that, no matter how often it’s repeated.

    43
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    Mute Jimmy jones
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:57 AM

    This is not really a measure of the popularity of FG . It is more a measure of the terrible job the opposition is doing.?

    186
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    Mute Justin Gillespie
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:32 AM

    According to the Irish Times, who commissioned the poll, AAA/PBP are on 2%. Food for thought!!

    48
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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:06 AM

    unfortunately as the last 4 years have shown, ireland does not have an opposition

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    Mute Cosmo Kramer
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:51 AM

    I don’t see it that the opposition are doing a terrible job.. When anything is brought up in the Dail either Government TD’s start roaring and shouting or Sean Barrett throws one of the opposition out for asking an awkward question.. Then we have the mainstream media who are nothing but Government puppets.. I remember when the media got on the backs of FF and Mary Harney.. Everyday we’d see Bertie, Cowan and Harney photoshoped onto the likes of Laurel and Hardy and they were made a show off.. Now look at the way the media are treating FG and Labour.. They’re being protected by the media, instead the media are going after SF, who just happen to be the main threat to FG.. Labour and FG have just given a seat in the Seanad to a dissident Republican and there has been absolutely nothing written up about her in any papers.. It’s all brushed under the carpet so as not to make the Government look bad..

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    Mute watersedge
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:27 AM

    Cosmo, I agree. Dissidents are against Sinn Fein, they do not agree with the peace process or the good friday agreement. They along with F.G/ Labour/ F.F. do not want the rise of Sinn Fein support. I think Labour have walked themselves into it this time without thinking. A dissident in the Seanad. There is a lot more going on here, join the dots people.

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    Mute David Murphey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:29 AM

    Oh dear, this won’t suit the agenda of the Shinnerbot kids on here.

    So, let’s blame:
    The polling company
    Hugh
    Margin of error
    Something about landlines
    “Nobody ever asked me”
    The sample size

    162
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    Mute pjm
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:31 AM

    You do realise SF are up in the poll as well.

    198
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    Mute Bob Freeman
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:35 AM

    FG and their supporters do more time talking about SF than anything else. Can you not talk about all the great things they have done for the country. Health Service? Homelessness? Housing? Etc..

    Maybe if your focus on the good they have done instead of having to throw mud at other parties you’d be able to garner even more support?

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    Mute Peter McGlynn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:38 AM

    They keep saying SF will fade away and that Gerry should move on. He’s about to make them grow again and likely to be largest opposition party. That’s scary for FG/FF – they know they will have to go into power together as they are tweedledum-tweedledee. SF on course to be the biggest party on the island.

    151
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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:47 AM

    Not really. SF will get max 15% of seats, as once you go beyond first preference, they are too toxic for transfers.

    FG will get ~35% of seats and potentially more if people believe a gov’t can’t be formed at that level.

    Also find it hilarious that you foot soldiers complain about others commenting on SF, when all you do is moan about the current gov’t. The fact that you did so in the same post is deliciously hypocritical.

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    Mute Peter McGlynn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:52 AM

    They will get huge transfers from independents. It is FF that will suffer there.

    113
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    Mute Drew TheChinaman :)
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:52 AM

    You forgot ‘conducting polls should be banned/illegal’

    41
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    Mute David Murphey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:53 AM

    “They keep saying SF will fade away and that Gerry should move on.”

    I never heard anyone say SF would fade away.

    Gerry can’t move on. There is no credible alternative. The leaders of SF would never allow “some wee girl” to be President of SF.

    54
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    Mute richard fennessy
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:05 AM

    David u might read it the shinners r up

    82
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    Mute David Murphey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:07 AM

    “You do realise SF are up in the poll as well.”

    Yes, they are. Fair play to them.

    This poll shows Enda Kenny heading up the next government. Shinners don’t like that.

    34
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    Mute Peter McGlynn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:27 AM

    You don’t see FG or FF putting important votes to their members like SF have done at their Ard Fheis this year. So, which parties are truly autocratic @David? If the members felt Gerry was not the heart and soul of the party he’d be gone by now.

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    Mute Powerabbey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:48 AM

    Peter – they will not get transfers from Independents.

    17
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    Mute Powerabbey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:50 AM

    Pete – do you not see the irony where no one has opposed the President for Life – Gerry. His opponents in the party like their knees too much!

    16
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    Mute watersedge
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:38 AM

    David, I actually got a call from Red Sea before the last poll they did came out. It does not matter if you are a left voter, the questions are by no means straightforward and are rigged to try and reflect FG/Labour in a better light. No wonder it looks like they are doing well in the polls, it’s a load of rubbish. I would not be putting any bets on them yet.

    46
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    Mute Willy
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:28 AM

    Real results at real election soon..

    150
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    Mute Bill Madden
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:56 AM

    Yep…and Kenny and Co will win hands down!!….while middle Ireland “don’t like” Kenny and Co, they are scared witless of the “motley crew” (SF/AAA/PBP ETC) the see a recovery and will not risk that!

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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:10 AM

    The journal really should have some counselors ready for when FG are returned. The shinnerbot meltdown will be epic :D

    73
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    Mute Anne Marie Devlin
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:30 AM

    The margin of error in this pool is 2.8%. All changes were below this value – ie all were within the margin of error, so it’s debatable whether there has been any change at all.

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    Mute Eoin Sheehy
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:53 AM

    True, but all the other polls of late have shown the same trend & while this polls change with the last is within the margin of error taken as a series with more of the preceding tracker polls by the Irish Times; the trend becomes almost irrefutable.

    47
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    Mute Neil Browne
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:26 AM

    Anne Marie there is only one poll that is the vote. People will vote as they want weather this be Left, Center, populist or right. Trying to apply a perfect science to a future event on current figures is not possible, it is another case of those in a field such as social science (Politics, Economics) trying to justify their fields as an exact science which it is not. A poll a week out might have some credibility, and even this has been tarnished by the polls in the British general election which got it spectacularly wrong. However in the mean time polls generate news and comment for various media outlets, just like we are commenting here, they are nearly always sponsored my media outlet or Paddy Power who supply various odds and drum up business.

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    Mute Tony Hartigan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:19 AM

    So not appearing on the VB show is working !

    146
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    Mute Business Cat
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:49 AM

    Of course…. the whole VB thing was a very obvious ambush.
    There was absolutely nothing to be gained for FG candidates to have crusties & solution-less socialists shout at them about water for an hour.

    FG had nothing to gain from engaging in it.

    63
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    Mute Brendan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:26 AM

    How they even have any support any more is crazy!

    They do nothin more than take take take from your pocket

    But yeah Endas 5 point plan was well executed sure we are all feeling the benefit of it yeah

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    Mute Paul Roche
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    Nov 26th 2015, 2:45 PM

    And yet the economy is in a more vulnerable position now that it has ever been before.
    When history is being told, it will be obvious that Prom Night bankrupted the country.
    Yeah.

    18
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    Mute Charliegrl80
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    Nov 26th 2015, 3:42 PM

    And for not appearing on VB they will get their answer from the voter – they haven’t gone on VB they are not showing up to meetings for special needs children in their schools the questions might be to hard to answer as to why in a special school the kids have no therapy’s- kids that were walking are now back in wheelchairs due to the lack of physiotherapy – kids that had a voice now have no voice because they have no speech and language – pat yourselves on the back FG/Labour

    17
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    Mute David Murphey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 4:03 PM

    “So not appearing on the VB show is working !”

    On Tuesday, 24 November, on “Tonight with Vincent Browne”, Vincent said to Michelle Mulherin TD “It doesn’t matter if he (Enda) comes on this programme or not”.

    http://www.tv3.ie/3player/show/41/101889/0/Tonight-with-Vincent-Browne

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    Mute Peadar Ó Gréacháin
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    Nov 26th 2015, 5:46 PM

    These Polls are carried out by land line, the number of household’s in the State with a landline phone is less than 40% include businesses it is 57% ……The people that have been hardest hit by the government’s austerity and no longer can afford a landline phone, don’t get to have there say in these Polls. This Government is in for an eye opener in the very near future.

    17
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    Mute Robin Tobin
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:21 PM

    Tony nobody asked me from the poll who would I vote for. My answer would have been not Fine Gael or labour so there are a lot more like me than the poll considered. They will be dumped at the next election.

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    Mute Mikeconnor
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:48 AM

    Should that not read labour/dissidents?

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    Mute Jason
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:13 AM

    Like SF/IRA?

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    Mute D'unredactable
    Favourite D'unredactable
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:14 AM

    LabouRNU.A?

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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:08 AM

    Only person i know in RNU is Baron Adams niece. Really must irk the shinner the maria cahill has more power than the whole of SF :D

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    Mute Neil Browne
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:15 AM

    There is no need to get excited about a poll that is commissioned so news papers and radio stations can manufacture news, just like the polls on this web site, the latest one on the issue of outdoor alcohol. Polls are used to generate news and comment on various media streams and are only taken seriously by political nerds.

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    Mute watersedge
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:37 AM

    Thomas, going by some of the documents I’ve come across circulating around twitter regarding M.C. I would say Labour will do some hiding when the truth all comes out. There is always an agenda.

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    Mute watersedge
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:55 AM

    I thought Dissidents were against the peace process and the good friday agreement. She is being used to bash Sinn Fein but it won’t work, people see through it. How do any of us know she has really left behind her dissident past?

    39
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    Mute Mer Curial
    Favourite Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:42 AM

    A lot of the old guard of the Labour party are ex-OIRA Stalinists and would be ideologically opposed to the GFA anyway…

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    Mute Conor
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:47 AM

    Ugh FG again, please no!!

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    Mute Jonny Lennon
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:57 AM

    I refuse to believe people are so gullible and stupid after all the destruction and misery they’ve caused, manipulated polls, they’ll get a right hammering in the election

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    Mute David Murphey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:04 AM

    Jonny, you win the prize for being the first person to cast doubt on the reliability of polls.

    Now, let’s see who’ll be first to mention “margin of error”.

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    Mute Mer Curial
    Favourite Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:49 AM

    David – Labour’s margin of error is probably about 7% ;)

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    Mute Kevin Carroll
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:40 AM

    Why anyone with an income below 100,000 would vote fg is beyond me.

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    Mute Mark O'Connor
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:03 AM

    Probably because they want to have an income of €100k one day.

    34
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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:15 AM

    why anyone with a job would vote SF is beyond me, they want to tax all employees and employers out of existence

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    Mute Vincent O Mahony
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:23 AM

    Yeah they want to have an income of 100k and lose it getting screwed in taxes to pay off the blueshirt IMF debt.

    35
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    Mute eric nelligan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:35 AM

    In other breaking thejournal.ie headlines….

    The sky is blue
    The grass is green

    Has there ever been a doubt FG would be the largest party????

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    Mute Sean MacC
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:21 AM

    Glad someone pointed out the obvious. It’s been the case in every poll since last election.

    It should be more notable that the two main opposition parties combined enjoy more support than the Government parties. Also that, combined, the Government in its present form is extremely unlikely to return to power based on these figures. Labour are headed for oblivion, something else that has been obvious for a long time.

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    Mute Peter McGlynn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:39 AM

    *Biggest party in the republic. SF on course to be the biggest party on the island.

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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:04 AM

    Eh, didn’t realise there was cross border elections going on and that people from another State could vote in each others elections……ha

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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:19 AM

    its getting tragic now for the shinners :D

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    Mute Peter McGlynn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:30 AM

    Sure Thomas – been on a downward spiral since 1970s lol.

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    Mute Christine Hanway
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:59 AM

    This poll makes me feel ill…. The whole shower of them need to be washed out casue they’re all as bad as each other.. couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery never mind run a country! I fear for what’s ahead if this is what were facing! When wil common sense ever prevail on this tiny island!

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    Mute IrishGravyTrain
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:36 AM

    Serious lack of an Alternative to vote for. All main parties are corrupt and self servant. Can’t see anything changing for the better. Most corrupt little Country to do business in.

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    Mute John Reese
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:10 AM

    “Most corrupt little Country to do business in” You should real get out an explore the world more mate.

    28
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    Mute Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:51 AM

    Obviously gravy train has never visited the likes of France, Spain, Greece or southern Europe in general :)

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    Mute littleone
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    Nov 26th 2015, 12:21 PM

    It has mer. That’s why they are screwed. Under previous governments they was corruption left , right and centre. But then the IMF and Europe know all about this . politicians with their cosy HSBC Swiss bank accounts. The lagarde list and Falciani dossier are examples of this.

    23
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    Mute Trevor Beale
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:53 AM

    1,2000!!!
    Either remove a ’0′ or move the comma!!!!

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    Mute Trevor Beale
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:06 AM

    Thanks

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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:15 AM

    FG uber alles.

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    Mute ConcernedCitizen
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:46 AM

    Most interesting fact from polls is that Sinn Féin is largest party among the 18-49 year olds underlying how FF & FG are becoming increasing irrelevant in Ireland and its future.

    70
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    Mute Mer Curial
    Favourite Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:48 AM

    C-Citizen – it’s the 50+ demographic who turns out to vote in high numbers on the day though.

    16
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    Mute ConcernedCitizen
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    Nov 26th 2015, 12:52 PM

    Record numbers of young people are registering now. The results in the next election, including transfers, are going to take everyone by surprise.
    The over 50s, including the over paid national media presenters, are out of touch & not connected with the new political revolution that is quietly going on in Ireland.

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    Mute Alice Simms
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:43 AM

    Literally the first article of the day… Vomit

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    Mute John Mullan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:31 AM

    Better pay the water bill so…

    64
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    Mute MK76
    Favourite MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:42 AM

    The part of the poll that shows SF up is obviously true.

    The part of the poll show FG up is obviously DOB propaganda.

    Wake up Ireland.

    P.S SF will increase income and employment tax if in gov’t. Fact.

    61
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    Mute Peter McGlynn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:55 AM

    FG would never spend money to get elected. It is their policies and not American multinational and their hardworking that has made a small dent in a massive debt. We’ll be out of the woods in 30 years. All hail Edna – he speaks the truth always.

    79
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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:23 AM

    if you want to pay 60% income tax then SF is the cult for you

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    Mute watersedge
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:46 AM

    Thomas, stop talking rubbish. Voters like you only worry about yourselves. People who vote more towards the left at least have a conscience. Better public services and and the welfare of all the people and children in this country is a priority to them and rightly so. This country is getting worse day by day under this government.

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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 12:58 PM

    Ha. Never heard such rubbish. People who vote Left are either looking for someone else to pay their way or have so much money, they can afford to be Chai Latte socialists.

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    Mute watersedge
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    Nov 26th 2015, 4:34 PM

    Are you seriously trying to imply that anybody who votes Left does not work or something? I’m sure the majority of left voters pay their fair share of taxes. Nobody minds paying taxes as long as it is used wisely like investing in the health service and housing, looking after the elderly and the disabled and all the children who deserve a chance in this country instead of living in poverty without proper housing and services. People do not want their hard earned money going into the likes of Irish Water and the corrupt bankers. That is why people are so angry. FG/Labour are for the crooked business men, big developers, bankers, the extremely well off and anyone else with no social conscience.

    11
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    Mute Eamon Mac Gowan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:55 AM

    You can fool some of the people all of the time,and all of the people some of the time.
    And that’s all you need to do.

    55
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    Mute willr
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:45 AM

    Powerabbey-no viable alternative, TINA- oh I genuinely pity you. Whenever I read such subservience drivel I think of sheep/cattle being happily lead to the slaughterhouse. If you want to be weak and afraid and live on your knees begging for crumbs off your masters table, so be it. The rest of us aren’t afraid to stand on our feet, demand change, and say no more of the same old BS politics. Change doesn’t happen without taking chances

    55
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    Mute Sternn
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:34 AM

    FG up two in a poll where the margin of error is 2.8, so they could be down 1, but sure thats not what the media wants to report!

    52
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    Mute Tony Hartigan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:16 AM

    BULLSHIT.

    47
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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:54 AM

    Stoopid democracy eh Tony!

    15
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    Mute MeanderingsNI
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:57 AM

    Didnt FG support the Nazis, Franco and Mussolini?

    43
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    Mute Mikeconnor
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    Nov 26th 2015, 1:08 PM

    And now the Dissident IRA!

    13
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    Mute FastBuck
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    Nov 26th 2015, 7:46 AM

    Enda’s the 2/9 favourite with Paddy Power to be next Taoiseach, probably the most accurate level of popularity there is. Shinners won’t be happy!

    41
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    Mute littleone
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:32 AM

    The only polls that matters for any party is at the polling booths and that’s getting closer every day. The findings of a Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research poll also found that just 25% of people would like to see Enda Kenny returned as Taoiseach after the election.
    60% of voters say that they actively do not want Kenny to take up a second term,

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    Mute MK76
    Favourite MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:52 AM

    What % wanted to see SF and/or Gerry Adams in power?

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    Mute Powerabbey
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:53 AM

    Little one – there is no viable alternative to the current government.

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    Mute littleone
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:59 AM

    Considering it was a poll on enda Kenny. Be bit hard for % on some thing that wasn’t polled. Send email to Claire Byrne mk76 and ask her what the % was for a poll that wasn’t done. You eejit.

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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:09 AM

    My bad. Thought it was a poll on all leaders.

    The one above shows Enda is the most popular leader btw. Go figure.

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    Mute littleone
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:15 AM

    Yet mk76 the one done on Claire Byrne showed 60% didn’t want him to to take up a second term and only 25% wanted him returned as taoiseach. So go figure. The Claire Byrne show is watched by a lot so is a good indicator of what people think.

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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:28 AM

    But I thought DOB ran RTE and it was nothing but a gov’t mouthpiece. Amazing the way the LLA can brush away their own hypocrisy when something supports their view of the world.

    Probably a moot point in Gerry being Taoiseach, given it will never happen.

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    Mute littleone
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:33 AM

    Ah are we getting touchy mk76. Do you not like the fact that the public vote in these polls and that was the result. Throwing out ridiculous things . bit pathetic but not surprising.

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    Mute MK76
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:53 AM

    Where did I throw out ridiculous things Little?

    Do the LLA not consistently moan that RTE is a gov’t mouthpiece and how will Gerry be Taoiseach when SF will get max 15% of the seats and probably lower?

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    Mute michael walsh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:02 AM

    Read the polls, 2 parties will get 41 % between them , there is an alternative to the present coalition

    30
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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:31 AM

    littleone your understanding of a representative sample is hilarious ‘the clare byrne show is watched by a lot…’. In an opinion poll the sample is determined to reflect the population, in the tv show, the population is only the viewers. if it was an exam question which would be the better sample? This is really basic stuff…

    7
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    Mute littleone
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:48 AM

    I didn’t dispute the above poll . good to know then Thomas that this Poll reflects the population. It means labour are still falling and sf are going up. It’s not even Christmas yet.

    26
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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Nov 26th 2015, 5:45 PM

    POWERABBLT, poo on a stick would be an alternative to this government but I am sure after the election there will be a F.F / F.G. Coalition then?

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    Mute O'Reilly
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:07 AM

    The IRA Army Council will be delighted with their rise in the polls. Who knew so many people could be so dumb. Just as well they can’t seem to find the polling stations when it counts…

    35
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    Mute Mer Curial
    Favourite Mer Curial
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    Nov 26th 2015, 12:03 PM

    Fortunately many of those who support for the IRA are lazy working class dole-head wasters in sinkhole estates such as Finglas, Crumlin, Ballyfermot, Drimnagh, Jobstown, Darndale etc. who don’t even have the motivation to waddle their large tracksuited backsides down to the poling station.

    13
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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Nov 26th 2015, 5:45 PM

    Trying to mix it up for them??? To muddy the waters?

    5
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    Mute Marty Lawless
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:04 AM

    Who is conducting these polls and are they asking only f g supporter’s I can’t wait until they canvas in my area they will hear a thing or 2 from me

    26
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    Mute Tap Solny
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:07 AM

    The results are as expected.

    26
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    Mute Proinsias Ó Foghlú
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:34 AM

    I was most heartened to read that SF are the least favoured part to coalesce with.

    26
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    Mute Eamon Mac Gowan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:57 AM

    @Proinsias Ó Foghlú,
    Oh bore off, just keep going to your fashion shows.

    33
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    Mute John Blessing
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    Nov 26th 2015, 11:07 AM

    Where do all these so-called polls come? I know where I’d like to shove this latest poll!!

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    Mute Damien wilson
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    Nov 26th 2015, 8:34 AM

    Up the blue shirts.

    18
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    Mute Eamon Mac Gowan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:52 AM

    @Damien wilson,
    Good man yourself, nothing like supporting a fascist party.

    27
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    Mute Rob Mills
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    Nov 26th 2015, 12:45 PM

    Fg 30% = BIZARRE
    Kenny et al = the epitome of unsophistication, just how the troika like it.

    15
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    Mute Damien wilson
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    Nov 26th 2015, 9:49 AM

    Good man steern any other crack?

    13
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    Mute Thomas Mac Donagh
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    Nov 26th 2015, 10:33 AM

    has any party said they will go into government with SF/IRA? :D

    12
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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Nov 26th 2015, 5:43 PM

    WHAT BULL, A POLL DONE A WHILE AGO SAID ON HERE THAT 3 OUT OF 4 DO NOT WANT ENDA TO BE TAOSEARCH AGAIN… Explain that?

    9
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    Mute Damien wilson
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    Nov 26th 2015, 12:29 PM

    @ Eamon Mac Gowan
    Largest party in our state. We cant all be wrong.Why is it no one will go into government with SF? Ask yourself that.

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    Mute Eamon Mac Gowan
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    Nov 26th 2015, 4:53 PM

    @Damien wilson,
    Do you even know what the blueshirts were?

    8
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    Mute Kim Prylowski
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    Nov 26th 2015, 1:19 PM

    Who do they ask?

    7
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    Mute Michael Sands
    Favourite Michael Sands
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    Nov 26th 2015, 5:53 PM

    When the international markets do badly it was the last governments fault and when they are on the up then this government takes the credit for it but when they fall again before the election then whos fault will it be… Isil???

    5
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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Nov 26th 2015, 5:51 PM

    The Red C poll tried this to get people to vote the Seanad away and it didn’t work, it won’t work here eith. Also who does these polls, only those in Dublin?

    5
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