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WITH MANY COUNTS complete, all eyes will now be on the formation of the next government.
With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael likely to form another partnership (having both ruled out doing business with Sinn Féin), the former rivals will need to find a way to shore up their combined numbers and form a stable majority in the Dáil.
That’s where Independent TDs and the smaller parties come in – or will they?
Social Democrats Holly Cairns said in a statement on Sunday evening that her party will talk to “all the other parties” about government formation in due course, but Labour leader Ivana Bacik has sounded a more cautious note this weekend, insisting she hopes to form a common platform with other parties on the left before any government talks.
TDs in these parties may not want to end up facing a near total wipeout like the Greens in five years’ time. Labour MEP Aodhán Ó Riordán has said publicly his party should not go into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – adding that they had thrown the Greens under a bus.
Irish electorates are traditionally tough on junior coalition partners.
We spoke to former Independent junior minister Finian McGrath, former Progressive Democrat leader Michael McDowell, former Labour minister Pat Rabbitte and former Green Party (and now Independent) TD Paul Gogarty about the advice they’d give anyone considering entering coalition talks.
McGrath, former Independent TD for Dublin Bay North and junior minister for disability in the 2016-2020 Fine Gael-led government, says potential junior coalition partners need to first decide is whether they really, really want to enter government “because there’s a very high chance that it’s going to end in tears”.
Next on McGrath’s list is to have six or seven clear “big ticket” priorities that can be stitched into a programme for government.
“You need to have clear policies and clear objectives when you into the talks,” McGrath says.
“If they agree to your issues and your programme for government, then you start demanding ministries to back that up so you can enforce the programme for government, and have one or two people at cabinet to keep an eye on things.”
Paul Gogarty, a Green Party TD in the Fianna Fáil-led government of 2007-2011, and re-elected on Sunday evening as an Independent TD for Dublin Mid-West, believes “any party or individual, assuming negotiations give you what you’re looking for, should try to go into government”.
Gogarty says it’s “better to make 10% of the change you’d like than 0%”, adding that there is a “moral imperative” on serious politicians to try and make positive changes when they can.
He admits that going into government as a junior coalition partner may mean you end up “out on your ear in five years time” but argues that if you can stand over something you have achieved it will have been worth it.
Pat Rabbitte, a Labour Party Minister for Energy during the 2011-2016 Fine Gael-led government, believes Bacik’s proposal to talk try and agree a common platform first with other parties of the left is the correct strategy, adding that it will be important for Labour to take its time when making any decisions.
He notes that any potential junior coalition partner will be “confronted with a phalanx of Fianna Fáil [and] Fine Gael deputies that will now number mid 80s, maybe even a little higher” – in other words, not very far off a majority.
As it happens, neither McGrath nor Rabbitte thinks Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael want to go into government with Labour or the Social Democrats, who are on track to be the biggest small parties. Neither sets any store by a flurry of media reports in recent days that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael consider Labour a favoured potential coalition partner.
Independent Senator Michael McDowell, a former leader of the now defunct Progressive Democrats and Minister for Justice for that party in a Fianna Fáil-led government of the early 2000s, is also sceptical that Labour or the Social Democrats are the preferred option.
McDowell adds that he doesn’t think Labour or the Social Democrats will be interested anyway.
“Even though maybe people like Ivana Bacik and Alan Kelly might like to be back in government, their colleagues would know that if Labour go into government, they’ll be the targets of Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats. They’ll end up paying the price for anything unpopular, and they won’t get the credit for anything good,” McDowell says.
“I think the Independents are in the driving seat now. I’d say there’s between six and eight Independents who would do a deal with the government.”
McDowell adds that Independents will be viewed by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as a “safer” bet for five years, as Labour or the Social Democrats could choose to collapse the government “rather than suffer the fate of the Greens”.
McGrath agrees.
“Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are going to have a fairly substantial number. I think you could easily get six credible Independent TDs who will sit down and hammer out their issues,” he said.
“I think the big beasts like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be nervy about the Soc Dems because they might think they’re a little bit wobbly and the first crisis could bring them down.”
Rabbitte too believes the most likely way the big parties will make up the numbers needed is with “a handful of like-minded, compliant Independents”.
“They’ll say other things, like they did during the campaign – but that was only to send out the signal that they wanted rid of the Greens, that wasn’t in praise of the Labour Party or anything else,” Rabbitte says.
Ultimately, forming a government is not the hard part – that comes next, and there are likely to be some frustrating days for any junior coalition partner over the coming months and years.
McGrath says anyone who wants to enter government will need to have resilience to deal with the “landmines” that appear “every few weeks” in government.
Opposition parties will be setting down critical motions, “stuff that will really annoy you – and also that stuff that you might agree with yourself, and yet you’re holding the lines of the government”, McGrath says.
“You have to have a bit of bottle and a bit of courage.”
With reporting by Alex Cunningham in Dublin Mid-West.
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If my EuroMillions numbers come out on Tuesday, you’ll know where to find me! Wow!
Even if you won the euro millions on Tuesday at €180m, over half of it would get you one penthouse in this building. Its an insane amount of money to spend on an apartment. Imagine what kind of house you would have for the same money? Seriously though who buys these places?
Plenty that would want to live in New York would buy these places.
They start at 7million so I’ll buy one of the cheaper ones if the euromillions comes in! With the way rent is in Manhattan it would probably be a solid investment!
Graham, people who have money, that’s who. I’m sure they also have houses elsewhere as well.
Eh, billionaires Graham. Billionaires buy them. Ah jaysus, why oh why didn’t I create Facebook …
Wow !!!
Even if you don’t live in these dwellings, NYC is the greatest city on earth. An amazing atmosphere with a buzz – and friendly people.
Very safe – police (armed) everywhere. On motorcycles, horseback and on the sidewalk.
And good value – except for accommodation which should be carefully researched. This best option is a small functional apartment.
On a break, you’ll only be sleeping there really. I use Radio City apartments – details on their website. Clean, central – and businesslike.
Do they take rent allowance lol It is a magnificent view but 95 million is a bit much.
I’ll take two.
Thought about it, but fear of heights has ruled it out. I’d have to keep the blinds closed
Abrahmovich bought the top penthouse as a gift to his daughter for a reported $125 million, $15 million above the original asking price so as to fend off any prospective rival bidders
dirty Russia tramp
At least you don’t have to close the blinds to stop the neighbors looking in.
No issue with the neighbours extension blocking light
I’m sure there will be one of them available on Airbnb fairly soon!
Wow! An actual stylish home in America untainted by mahogany and frills! That’s gorgeous.
And I suppose you have seen every home in the US?
I was never a fan of NY. Filthy place rude people. I don’t see the appeal.
New York is a dirty as any other major city. As for being rude? I’ve come across some of the most friendly, helpful and interesting people in this city. You can strike up conversations with strangers in a bar or a park any day of the week. New Yorkers love to chat. I personally relish in that. Beside the people, you have an endless choice of amazing restaurants, bars, and music venues. What’s not to love?
Like I said, I was never a fan of NY. My opinion. Im very happy you love it. Good for you.
I’m with you there Mike. I found it very underwhelming but maybe I expected more than I should have. I much preferred Boston, now that’s a beautiful city with fantastic architecture.
New York is a huge city with a massive population. Visiting for a few days you’ll see a tiny % of what the city has to over. Imagining telling people Dublin is not worth their time after only visiting temple bar area for a weekend.
You are getting very defensive there Bevin. I have been to NY many times. Not because I like it but because I have family living there. Everyone is entilted to their own opnion. You obviously love it as do many people but I disagree that’s all.
Of course, anyone who can communicate can express an opinion. You can visit a city many times and still only experience a fraction of it and NYC is a perfect example of this. I’m sorry if defending the city I live, love and work in irks you. I prefer to keep an open mind and avoid making mass generalizations, about anything.
It doesn’t irk me at all. Good for you if you feel that way. I was just responding to Mike’s post. You seem to be the one making generalisions not me.
Mike, NYC is a lot cleaner and safer now then ever before. I was there 2 years ago and manhattan was virtually litter free. A big change from the last time I was there in ’89 when Times Square was dive.
I’ve been to New York many times both for work and pleasure. The first few times I hated it. But when I started to get used to the wall to wall noise and explore parts that are off the beaten tourist tracks I found it to be the most amazing city on the planet.
I started reading about its history and the different neighbourhoods then visited those places when I had time.
Like every city on the planet you’ll have bad parts and some ugliness and urban decay but for sure adventure and atmosphere there is nowhere like it. Plus I feel a lot safer walking around Manhattan at Night than I do Dublin city centre.
I live here in NYC and I find Dublin to be filthier
What’s so astounding about the view? Acres of concrete draped in smog
Jaaaysus
Ive lived in the US for many years Bevin. I know NY very well. I agree with Linda head to Boston or Chicago.
Wheres the water meter fitted ??…188 euro for call outs..important question i think if im paying 90 odd million for it..lol
I’m here in NYC going on 18 years you either love it or hate it for me it worked but it’s not for everyone
Beautiful. But no way could I live that high up.
Generalisation? Funny that Bevin you presumed I visited NY for a few days. How wrong are you. I probably lived in the US for longer than you’re born.
Ah, the old “before you were born” “back in my day” spiel. I wouldn’t have liked to live in NYC in the 70′s either, so you have a point there, I suppose.
Sadly this building reflect all that has been lost in NYC. Increasingly a millionaires only place to live. Alot that gave NY its culture and allure came from the bottom up, immigrant neighbourhoods, art movements from genuine aspiring artists who could then still afford to live in Manhattan. Now its a case of a clip on culture in Greenwich Village and an ever increasing mono corporate aesthetic. NY has lost alot of its traditional appeal. Look at average wages in NYC and costs etc, it just doesn’t offer working people what it once did and culturally that is becoming all the more apparent. NY has got very boring relative to what itvonce was. The building is for billionaires to lorde over the masses, a celebration of greed and unprecedented inequality.
I prefer the view from my own house: http://i.imgur.com/D4Velxm.png
Tut tut. Read it again!! “Longer” than you’re born, not before. A big difference.
And what happens when u do ure weekly shop, you’re weighed down with bags and the feckin lift is out of order?? Hmmmmmm not so great then is it walking up all those flights of stairs
Wow
It has improved over the last 20 years mainly around the tourist areas but most of it is still dirty. I got a cab recently from JFK to lower Manhattan. The filth on the streets all along the route. The city is hyped up by the media as the best city on earth. Many to be let down.
@Bevin, London, Paris are much cleaner than NY and just as big.
Take those blinkers off when at home David.
All the interior views are cgi, not photos
$95 million for a flat? How obscene! Does anyone of you dare to question where this wealth derives from,or are you too enamored with the glitz to even care?
Stainless steel appliances, I have those in my kitchen too, must be doing something right!!
have your say