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Sasko Lazarov/Photocall Ireland

Consumer sentiment stabilises after sharp decline in September

The KBC Ireland/ESRI index showed a small amount of growth though consumers still have a gloomy outlook of their household finances and unemployment.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT SAW a slight increase this month following a sharp drop in September which economists said was due to speculation around the upcoming budget.

The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index for October rose modestly, edging from last month’s 60.2 to 60.9.

This compares to a reading in October last year of 63.7.

Kevin Timonry of the ESRI said an improved perception for purchasing durable consumer goods and recovering expectations of economic performance over the coming 12 months contributed to the stabilisation of the index.

Declines continued in consumers’ view of the outlook for their household finances over the next 12 months, in their view on their financial situation compared to a year ago, and in their expectations of unemployment over the coming 12 months.

The index of current economic conditions recovered to 79.5 in October, up from 77.6 in September, while the index of consumer expectations remained flat at 48.4 in October from 48.6 in the previous month

Austin Hughes of KBC Bank Ireland said the index results over the last couple of months indicate that Irish consumers have become “a good deal more nervous”.

“The fragile nature of sentiment at present means that while Budget 2013 will be painful it must also be designed and presented in a way that consumers see as providing some prospect of an improvement in domestic economic conditions during the coming year,” he said.

Read: Sharp fall in consumer sentiment in September>

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14 Comments
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    Mute Zaur Gouliev
    Favourite Zaur Gouliev
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    Oct 31st 2012, 2:22 PM

    SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The state takes one and gives it to someone else.

    COMMUNISM: You have two cows. The State takes both of them and gives you the milk.

    FASCISM: You have two cows. The State takes both of them and sells you the milk.

    MILITARY DICTATORSHIP: You have two cows. The State takes both of them and shoots you.

    BUREAUCRACY: You have two cows. The state takes both of them, accidentally kills one and spills the milk in the sewer.

    CAPITALISM: You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull.

    PURE DEMOCRACY: You have two cows. Your neighbors decide who gets the milk.

    REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY: You have two cows. Your neighbors pick someone to decide who gets the milk.

    AMERICAN DEMOCRACY: The government promises to give you two cows if you vote for it. After the election, the president is impeached for speculating in cow futures. The press dubs the affair “Cowgate”.

    ANARCHY: You have two cows. Either you sell the milk at a fair price or your neighbors kill you and takes the cows.

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    Mute Colm McDonagh
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    Oct 31st 2012, 2:27 PM

    IRISH DEMOCRACY: you have two cows and your local TD promises you planning for a cowshed and when gets elected he gives your cows to the banks and then taxes your cowshed.

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    Mute Steve Wright
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    Oct 31st 2012, 2:34 PM

    Or your cows accidentally disappear and a scandal erupts where a large cohort of TD’s are found with brown envelopes containing a selection of steak & cuts.

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    Mute ITS Student
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    Oct 31st 2012, 2:43 PM

    Free Market Capitalism failed in Ireland – look at the mess it got us into. It does not work in any EU or EMU state either because policies are determined by arrogant Europeans and ECB nazis. Free market capitalism only works if a state is outside the EU.

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    Mute David Higgins
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    Oct 31st 2012, 3:36 PM

    SURREALISM: You have two giraffes, the government requires you take harmonica lessons.

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    Mute Una Dev
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    Oct 31st 2012, 2:22 PM

    I’m not spending a dime until that garbage in the Dail is voted out of office.

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    Mute Catherine lonergan
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    Oct 31st 2012, 3:18 PM
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    Mute Garry Fitzgerald
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    Oct 31st 2012, 6:15 PM

    Una Dev
    Are talking about all of them or some of them?

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    Mute Catherine lonergan
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    Oct 31st 2012, 6:26 PM

    @Una

    All of them hopefully.

    They can’t screw us over for everything we,ve got and then give themselves a 1/2 a million a year.

    They are a disgrace to the people and our country!

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    Mute Brendan Williamson
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    Oct 31st 2012, 2:27 PM

    Right, so the changes of all of those statistics are within the margin of error, meaning there is no evidence to suggest that anything has changed, and we can all get on with our day.

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    Mute Eoin Fogarty
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    Oct 31st 2012, 3:37 PM

    right they are on the extreme edges of unchanged.

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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    Oct 31st 2012, 4:29 PM

    Is this based on sales figures? A poll? Several polls? What, exactly is the “index” measuring? Once that is revealed, could we determine the margin of error in the data set? Is it less than 0.6%?
    Then we can talk about the stabilization of consumer sentiment…
    Otherwise, it just seems like someone blowing smoke…I smell fish. Smoked fish. :-)

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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    Oct 31st 2012, 4:39 PM

    Ah, it’s based on 1,100 completed questionaires of five questions asked each month to a random sampling of people by telephone. No mention if made of the “margin of error”. in the description of the methodology:

    http://www.esri.ie/docs/CSI_METHOD.PDF

    But there is, as with any survey, an error factor–typically 4% in an election survey. So what’s up with this survey?
    What is the definition of “stabilization”?

    2
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